India 2023 assembly elections

[jaichind]

Possible INC CM DK Shivakumar has the highest net worth of all MLAs elected which is around $140 million.  208 out of 224 MLAs are worth at least $120K.

Note that DK Shivakumar was not in business at all and was a student activist back in the 1980s before entering into politics with the INC.  This sort of proves that talk of the INC government being a "10% government" is true.



The most lucrative political job in India is being a MLA in states with a real estate boom Metropole which would be Karnataka (Bengaluru), Delhi (New Delhi), and Maharashtra (Mumbai).  DK Shivakumar's net worth proves. this.

[jaichind]

I mapped out the Karnataka election results

               Contest       Win          Vote share  Vote share contested
BJP            224           66             36.25%            36.25%

BJP rebel                                       1.26%

KRPP            46             1              0.64%             3.22%  (Reddy brothers BJP splinter)

MES               5             0              0.33%           15.55% (pro-Maratha BJP splinter)

INC+         224         136              43.41%           43.41% (SKP was part of INC+)

INC rebel                     1                1.33%

NCP               9            0               0.27%              6.66%

JD(S)         209          19              13.39%            14.36%

JS(S) rebel                  1                0.37%

CPM              4            0                0.06%              3.04% (tactical alliance with JD(S))

RPI               8             0               0.08%              2.45% (tactical alliance with JD(S))

SDPI           16             0               0.23%              3.42%  (Muslim)

[jaichind]

Voting is in progress in Karnataka.  Exit polls will be out soon after voting ends.

I still hold to my back-of-the-envelope seat by seat guess of

INC   110
BJP     87
JD(S)  27

We will see what the exit poll say

All in all, I missed 50 out of 224 seats.  30 out of the misses were guessing BJP when it was some other winner.  So my miss was mostly about overestimating BJP.  I generally got my calibration correct. 

[jaichind]

CSDS post-election survey on how each community voted.  Correlates pretty well with Axis My India exit polls



What was critical was that a majority felt that corruption under the BJP has increased.

[jaichind]

India Today's analysis by seat type.

[jaichind]

It seems Karnataka INC MLA has asked INC high command to make a call on who should be CM.  This means INC Prez Mallikarjun Kharge who is also from Karnataka (he is a Left Hand Dalit) will have to choose from Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar.  In theory, he can pick himself to be Karnataka CM but then he has to give up INC Prez.   It seems the Gandhi clan will not get involved which is a first in a long time.  How well INC handles this will set a precedent for party decision process transparency and party discipline. 

[jaichind]

https://theprint.in/india/meghalaya-assembly-elections-polling-postponed-in-sohiong-constituency-after-udp-candidates-demise/1387475/

"Meghalaya Assembly elections: Polling postponed in Sohiong constituency after UDP candidate’s demise"

In Meghalaya's Sohiong the UDP candidate passed away leading to a delay in voting in this district.

In 2018 the results here were

HSPDP     46.1 -> defected to NPP
INC         43.7 -> defected to UDP
PDF         10.3

This time around it will be NPP vs UDP in a re-run of the 2018 election.  The UDP candidate (who ran in 2018 as INC) passed away which clears the way for the NPP incumbent (elected in 2018 as HSPDP) to win for sure, especially when NPP will return as the largest party and holds the CM seat when the election does take place.

https://theshillongtimes.com/2023/03/02/hdr-lyngdohs-nephew-may-get-udp-ticket/

"HDR Lyngdoh’s nephew may get UDP ticket"

It seems UDP will most likely run the nephew of its deceased candidate (who ran for INC in 2018).  This means UDP will have the sympathy factor.  Still given the CM is NPP I cannot see how NPP will lose when voting does take place.

I was wrong.  UDP beats NPP

[jaichind]

https://www.deccanherald.com/election/karnataka/siddaramaiah-likely-to-be-named-karnataka-cm-three-dy-cms-from-lingayat-dalit-muslim-communities-likely-1219443.html

"Siddaramaiah likely to be named Karnataka CM; three Dy CMs from Lingayat, Dalit, Muslim communities likely"

Looks like former INC CM Siddaramaiah will be selected to be Karnataka CM.  Most likely this is because he has the support of more MLAs over DK Shivakumar especially after an election where the INC elected a bunch more  Lingayat MLAs.  It seems INC high command is working to try to keep  DK Shivakumar in the INC camp, perhaps with some deal that has  DK Shivakumar taking over in the middle of the 5-year term.  JD(S) gets a reprieve as they can now count on the Vokkaliga vote in the 2024 LS and 2028 assembly election and live to fight another day even in a reduced form.

[jaichind]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/karnataka-cm-siddaramaiah-dk-shivakumar-deputy-congress-power-sharing-101684394229153.html

"'Power sharing means…': Congress after naming Siddaramaiah as K'taka CM, Shivakumar as deputy"

Siddaramaiah was named the new Karnataka INC CM.  DK Shivakumar will become DCM.  A deal was offered to split the 5-year term between them but both turned it down (smart move, these 2.5 per person deals have never worked in the past across different parties and states.)  Sonia Gandhi had to speak to DK Shivakumar to him to accept this decision.  I can see this blowing up on INC down the road leading to DK Shivakumar in de facto rebellion (like Sachin Pilot in Rajasthan)  and leading to an INC meltdown in the 2028 assembly elections.

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/karnataka-election-2023-siddaramaiah-dk-shivakumar-karnataka-congress-3-reasons-why-siddaramaiah-won-3-reasons-why-dk-shivakumar-did-too-4044960

"3 Reasons Why Siddaramaiah Won And 3 Reasons Why DK Shivakumar Did Too"

The article points out that the problem with DK Shivakumar is that
a) He is worth $140 million but only had a political job his entire career and is clearly being investigated by the anti-corruption units
b) DK Shivakumar being Vokkaliga is good at getting JD(S) votes but will turn off a lot of Lingayats when INC has a surge of Lingayat MLAs.

The article also points out that DK Shivakumar knew he would not get the top job but was fighting for it to ensure that in his loss INC's high command would make Siddaramaiah share power with DK Shivakumar which did take place.

[jaichind]

INC invite list for Karnaratak swearing-in ceremony

Leaders of
DMK
JD(U)
RJD
JMM
SHS(U)
NCP
CPM
AITC
SP
CPM

Not invited: Leaders of

BSP
AAP
BRS
TDP
YSRCP
BJD
JD(S)
CPM CM of Kerala

When compared to the 2018 JD(S)-INC Karantaak swearing-in ceremony


Came in 2018 but not invited in 2023
AAP
BSP
TDP
AAP
JD(S)

Was not invited in 2018 but invited in 2023
SHS(U)
JD(U)

The invite list gives a sense of what the INC strategy is in 2024:

1) SP-INC alliance in UP but not BSP so it will be BJP-AD(S) vs SP-INC vs BSP
2) DMK-INC-Left alliance in TN so it will be DMK-INC-Left vs AIADMK-PMK-BJP
3) AITC-INC-Left alliance in WB so it will be a tactical  AITC-INC-Left alliance vs BJP
4) JMM-INC alliance in Jharkhand so it will be JMM-INC vs BJP-AJSU
5) INC-SHS(U)-NCP alliance in Maharashtra so it will be INC-SHS(U)-NCP vs BJP-SHS
6) JU(U)-RJD-INC-Left alliance in Bihar so it will be JD(U)-RJD-INC-Left vs BJP-LJP

In other places
1) 3-way battle in Telangana with BRS vs INC vs BJP
2) 3-way battle in Delhi with BJP vs AAP vs INC
3) 4-way battle in Punjab AAP vs INC vs SAD vs BJP
4) 4-way battle in AP YSRCP vs TDP-JSP vs BJP vs INC
5) 3-way battle in Odisha BJD vs BJP vs INC-Left
6) 3-way battle in Karnataka BJP vs INC vs JD(S)
7) 3-way battle in Kerala Left Front vs UDF vs BJP
8 ) BJP vs INC in the rest of Hindi heartland and Gujarat

[jaichind]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/will-contest-next-andhra-polls-with-bjp-tdp-jana-sena-chief/articleshow/100199500.cms?from=mdr

"Will contest next Andhra polls with BJP, TDP: Jana Sena chief"

In AP JSP still trying to get a TDP-JSP-BJP grand alliance.  I think it is unlikely that TDP or BJP will compromise with each other to be in the same bloc.  Also for TDP, YSRCP vs TDP-JSP vs BJP vs INC is the best structure.  BJP has some strength with the upper castes but they will tactically vote TDP anyway.  If BJP joins TDP led alliance then the various Mulsim and Christian votes would tactically go to YSRCP.
 

[jaichind]

AP politics is filled with family feuds.

One of the parties that will contest in the upcoming Telangana elections is YSRTP.  YSRTP is a YSRCP splinter and is led by the sister (YS Sharmila) and mother (YS Vijayamma) of YRSCP leader and AP CM YS Jagan Mohan Reddy.  YSR was the INC CM in AP that died in a plane crash in 2009.  After that INC high command refused to give the CM spot to YS Jagan Mohan Reddy who bolted and formed YSRCP.  INC then even worked to get YS Jagan Mohan Reddy in jail on corruption charges.  It was YS Jagan Mohan Reddy's sister and mother that ran his party while he fought these charges and eventually got out of jail and after coming in a close second in 2014 won power in 2019 as CM.

In 2021 there was a falling out between YS Jagan Mohan Reddy and his sister (YS Sharmila) and mother (YS Vijayamma) who bolted to form YSRTP.  The break was not total and it seems what his sister (YS Sharmila) and mother (YS Vijayamma)  decided to do is to focus on Telangana and sort of use YSRTP as sort of a Telangana branch of YSRCP. 

The other big political family feud in AP is of course the TDP CM NTR clan.  NTR's son-in-law Chandrababu Naidu was a rising INC superstar when NTR formed TDP.  Chandrababu Naidu ran against his father-in-law in 1983 but joined TDP afterward when TDP won.   Chandrababu Naidu was expected to be NTR's political successor but then NTR married Lakshmi Parvathi late in his career and was working to hand power over to her.   Chandrababu Naidu and NTR's other sounds launch a coup against NTR to take over TDP and NTR died before he planned to take revenge on  Chandrababu Naidu in the 1995 assembly elections.  Lakshmi Parvathi allied her faction of TDP with BJP before eventually merging it with INC.  Most of NTR's children stayed with  Chandrababu Naidu's TDP although one of his daughters Daggubati Purandeswari joined INC and then BJP.

[jaichind]

BJP central government invokes Article 355 on its own Manipur government and takes over security for the state given the recent violence there




The violence is, as usual, tribal conflict over ST quotas.  The basic idea is that due to a lack of industrial development, there is significant underemployment.  Everyone wants the stability of a government job.  But by the Indian Constitution enshrining quotas/reservation/affirmative action for college admissions and government jobs they opened up an economic process into a political process.  This just means different groups turn to political, including violence, methods to achieve economic goals.

It seems since the riots broke out in Manipur a month ago there has been de facto ethnic cleansing in Manipur.  Most hill tribals living in the Imphal Valley have moved to the hills while most of the Meiteis living in the hills have moved to Imphal Valley.  If the ethnic conflict continues I can see the hill tribals imposing a de facto economic blockade on the  Imphal Valley by blocking the roads into and out of Imphal Valley.

[jaichind]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/northeast-diary-why-manipur-mlas-separate-state-demand-is-likely-to-fizzle-out/articleshow/100376665.cms

"Northeast Diary: Why Manipur MLAs’ separate state demand is likely to fizzle out"

In Manipur, 10 MLAs from Kuki areas, including 7 from the BJP, are pushing the idea of merging Kuki areas with Mizoram to form Greater Kukiland.  They cite that the Kukis can no longer trust the Manipur government.  This is amazing as 7 BJP MLAs now say they cannot trust the Manipur BJP government.  Of course in tribal Manipur party label means nothing while kin and ethnic identity are everything.  This will go nowhere of course but this move shows the great gulf between Kikus and Meiteis.

[jaichind]

CSDS-NDTV Mood of the Nation poll

NDA-BJP has the edge.  But it seems INC has gained ground since 2019




Modi's approval is not as high as one would think


Rahul Gandhi's approval is at around 41% and it viewed as the main rival to Modi in 2024



Modi is ahead of Rahul Gandhi but the gap is not massive and Rahul Gandhi has made some minor gains since 2019

[eos]

CSDS-NDTV Mood of the Nation poll

NDA-BJP has the edge.  But it seems INC has gained ground since 2019

Is that the vote share for INC or UPA as a whole? In 2019, BJP had 37.7% of the vote, with the NDA total taking it up to 38.4%. In contrast, INC had 19.7%, with the UPA together accounting for 26.4%. Others amounted to 35.2%.

https://www.indiavotes.com/lok-sabha/2019/all-states/17/0

If you add JD(U), RJD, NCP, SS(U), and DMK,  you probably get another 5-7% of the national vote share. Add to the above (if only INC), and UPA is running close to BJP/NDA. That's why I think 29% in the infograph is probably UPA.

Of course, if the INC vote share in the Infograph is just INC, I don't know what to make of it. That would be a massive consolidation of the anti-BJP vote behind INC.

In your expert opinion, what might be the seat count if it is:
1. BJP/NDA 39% vs INC/UPA 29%
2. BJP/NDA 39% vs INC 29% + rest of UPA

[eos]

Actually, just a correction.

https://www.indiavotes.com/alliance/partyWise/17

This page shows NDA excluding BJP got 7.5%, so BJP/NDA in 2019 was approximate 45.2% of the total vote versus INC/UPA at 26.4%.

That would mean the infograph is showing only the BJP vote share in 2019 and thus also 2023. This would mean they are also only showing the INC voteshare in 2019 and also 2023? 29% seems really high, I'm surprised.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-22/india-removing-2-000-rupee-note-may-spur-gold-property-rush

"India Removing 2,000 Rupee Note May Spur Gold, Property Rush"

Denomination part II is coming with the 2000 INR note going out of circulation.  This is only around 10% of the India cash money supply so this is not as big of a deal.  My suspicion is that this is meant to hit Hindi regional opposition parties like SP and BSP. 

BJP gets massive corporate funding.  INC is not what it used to be but still gets some corporate funding.  Hindi heartland regional parties like SP BSP JMM JD(U) RJD tend to get their funding from small cash-based businesses.   Making it harder to store value with cash will hit these parties.  JMM JD(U) RJD are in power in their respective states so they can get funding outside small cash-based businesses.  It is SP and BSP that will get hit by this.  BJP's plan seems to knock out SP and BSP in UP ahead of time and then defeat INC 1-on-1 in the rest of the Hindi heartland for 2024.

[jaichind]

Actually, just a correction.

https://www.indiavotes.com/alliance/partyWise/17

This page shows NDA excluding BJP got 7.5%, so BJP/NDA in 2019 was approximate 45.2% of the total vote versus INC/UPA at 26.4%.

That would mean the infograph is showing only the BJP vote share in 2019 and thus also 2023. This would mean they are also only showing the INC voteshare in 2019 and also 2023? 29% seems really high, I'm surprised.

Exactly. The poll seems to poll support for the major party and not allies.  For 2024 NDA is pretty much BJP other than for AS(S) in UP, AJSU in Jharkhand, AGP in Assam, SHS in Mahratratra,  LJP in Bihar, and AIADMK/OMK in TN.  I think at this stage NDA = BJP + ~3% so BJP at 39% would mostly translate to NDA at around 42%

INC at 29% is very impressive. As for what this means it really depends on where the INC growth is coming from.  The most advantageous place for INC to grow is the non-UP Hindi heartland.  If that is where INC vote share growth is coming from then BJP will take a large hit in seats.  If it is in UP or places like WB or Odisha then the BJP seat impact will the significant but not large.

All things equal this poll shows that 2024 is not a done deal for BJP if the poll is accurate.

[jaichind]

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/other-states/former-bjp-mla-arrested-for-fresh-manipur-violence-was-deputy-speaker/article66884832.ece

"Former BJP MLA arrested for fresh Manipur violence was Deputy Speaker"

Former BJP MLA and Manipur assembly deputy speaker arrested for trying to stir up more violence his this riot-torn state.

This MLA, T. Thangzalam Haokip, was MLA of Henglep, a hill tribal seat, from 2017-2022.  He has run in this seat in every election since 1995 each with a different party.  He seems to have started in INC early in this career but started to party-hop every election

               Party                       Vote Share      Position
1995        MPP  (INC splinter)         18.4%          3rd
2000      MSCP (INC splinter)          19.0%          2nd
2002       INC                                17.8%          2nd
2007        LJP                                19.2%          2nd
2012       AITC                               25.4%          2nd
2017        BJP                                35.5%          1st (finally won)
2022        SHS                                9.5%           4th

It seems after being elected in 2017 as BJP and becoming Deputy speaker of the Manipur assembly he broke with the BJP in 2020 and joined INC.  Then INC refused to nominate him so he ran as SHS and dropped to 4th place while BJP won this seat.  Anyway, it seems now he wants to reactivate his political career by provoking more violence.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Actually, just a correction.

https://www.indiavotes.com/alliance/partyWise/17

This page shows NDA excluding BJP got 7.5%, so BJP/NDA in 2019 was approximate 45.2% of the total vote versus INC/UPA at 26.4%.

That would mean the infograph is showing only the BJP vote share in 2019 and thus also 2023. This would mean they are also only showing the INC voteshare in 2019 and also 2023? 29% seems really high, I'm surprised.

Exactly. The poll seems to poll support for the major party and not allies.  For 2024 NDA is pretty much BJP other than for AS(S) in UP, AJSU in Jharkhand, AGP in Assam, SHS in Mahratratra,  LJP in Bihar, and AIADMK/OMK in TN.  I think at this stage NDA = BJP + ~3% so BJP at 39% would mostly translate to NDA at around 42%

INC at 29% is very impressive. As for what this means it really depends on where the INC growth is coming from.  The most advantageous place for INC to grow is the non-UP Hindi heartland.  If that is where INC vote share growth is coming from then BJP will take a large hit in seats.  If it is in UP or places like WB or Odisha then the BJP seat impact will the significant but not large.

All things equal this poll shows that 2024 is not a done deal for BJP if the poll is accurate.

How does the INC look though compared to at this point in 2018

[jaichind]

Actually, just a correction.

https://www.indiavotes.com/alliance/partyWise/17

This page shows NDA excluding BJP got 7.5%, so BJP/NDA in 2019 was approximate 45.2% of the total vote versus INC/UPA at 26.4%.

That would mean the infograph is showing only the BJP vote share in 2019 and thus also 2023. This would mean they are also only showing the INC voteshare in 2019 and also 2023? 29% seems really high, I'm surprised.

Exactly. The poll seems to poll support for the major party and not allies.  For 2024 NDA is pretty much BJP other than for AS(S) in UP, AJSU in Jharkhand, AGP in Assam, SHS in Mahratratra,  LJP in Bihar, and AIADMK/OMK in TN.  I think at this stage NDA = BJP + ~3% so BJP at 39% would mostly translate to NDA at around 42%

INC at 29% is very impressive. As for what this means it really depends on where the INC growth is coming from.  The most advantageous place for INC to grow is the non-UP Hindi heartland.  If that is where INC vote share growth is coming from then BJP will take a large hit in seats.  If it is in UP or places like WB or Odisha then the BJP seat impact will the significant but not large.

All things equal this poll shows that 2024 is not a done deal for BJP if the poll is accurate.

How does the INC look though compared to at this point in 2018

I think this poll, if true, reflects the afterglow of an expectedly large INC victory in Karnataka.  INC was polling almost as well, but not as well, as this in early 2019 after their victory in assembly elections in MP, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh.  It was the Pulwama attack in Feb 2019 in Kashmir and India's retaliation against Pakistan that shifted support back to BJP.  I always felt that the swing back to BJP in 2019 was going to happen no matter what as the INC late 2018 assembly victory glow wears off.  I think something similar will take place in INC polling today.

[eos]

ABP News-Matrize Opinion Poll for Chhattisgarh between March 7 and 22 link

Who would get how much vote share?

Congress - 44%
BJP - 43%
Others – 13%

Who would get how many seats? (out of 90)
Congress - 47 to 52
BJP - 34 to 39
Others - 1 to 5

Who had the best tenure as Chief Minister?

Bhupesh Baghel - 48%
Raman Singh - 46%
Ajit Jogi - 6%

How is the work of PM Modi?

Very good - 46%
Satisfactory - 48%
Very poor - 06%

How is the functioning of the central government?

Very good - 38%
Satisfactory - 44%
Very poor - 18%

Will PM Modi prove to be a game changer in Chhattisgarh assembly elections?

Very much - 38%
Somewhat - 23%
No effect - 39%

Seems there is somewhat of a disconnect between Modi's personal popularity and perceptions about his ability to positive affect the BJP's chances in Chhattisgarh. Also, Bhupesh Baghel is fairly well regarded and could negate the Modi effect somewhat. Still, it's a tossup between INC and BJP at this point

[eos]

Actually, just a correction.

https://www.indiavotes.com/alliance/partyWise/17

This page shows NDA excluding BJP got 7.5%, so BJP/NDA in 2019 was approximate 45.2% of the total vote versus INC/UPA at 26.4%.

That would mean the infograph is showing only the BJP vote share in 2019 and thus also 2023. This would mean they are also only showing the INC voteshare in 2019 and also 2023? 29% seems really high, I'm surprised.

Exactly. The poll seems to poll support for the major party and not allies.  For 2024 NDA is pretty much BJP other than for AS(S) in UP, AJSU in Jharkhand, AGP in Assam, SHS in Mahratratra,  LJP in Bihar, and AIADMK/OMK in TN.  I think at this stage NDA = BJP + ~3% so BJP at 39% would mostly translate to NDA at around 42%

INC at 29% is very impressive. As for what this means it really depends on where the INC growth is coming from.  The most advantageous place for INC to grow is the non-UP Hindi heartland.  If that is where INC vote share growth is coming from then BJP will take a large hit in seats.  If it is in UP or places like WB or Odisha then the BJP seat impact will the significant but not large.

All things equal this poll shows that 2024 is not a done deal for BJP if the poll is accurate.

According to NDTV, the "Lokniti-CSDS conducted the survey among 7202 people spread across 19 states and 71 constituencies in India".

I have a hard time believing INC is gaining ground in WB, UP, and Odisha. However, it's equally hard to believe they have gained so much ground in the rest of the non-UP Hindi belt. That's why I was so surprised with the polling. In 2009, INC and BJP combined had 47.4% of the PV. SP and BSP accounted for 9.6%. Since then, BJP has clearly been cannibalising INC, SP, and BSP  to get to the high 30s. Where could INC be getting that much PV if BJP is still in the high 30s?

Just for comparison:

2009: BJP+INC = 47.4%
2014: BJP+INC = 50.31%
2019: BJP+INC = 56.85%
2023: BJP+INC = 68% (according to NDTV CSDS)

Edit: maybe it's a turnout thing?

2009: 58.2%
2014: 66.4%
2019: 67.4%
2024: ?