India 2023 assembly elections

[jaichind]

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/probably-winning-telangana-certainly-winning-mp-and-chhattisgarh-very-close-in-rajasthan-rahul/article67340795.ece

Rahul Gandhi:  Congress is certainly winning Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, probably winning Telangana, and there is a "very close" contest in Rajasthan

Conclusion INC will lose Rajasthan for sure

[jaichind]

It seems the INDIA seat-sharing deal in Bihar will be

JD(U)   15
RJD      15
INC        6
Left        4 (this will include CPI(ML))

[jaichind]

AIAMDK officially leaves NDA.  BJP most likely to form third front.  I assume they will target the OPS faction of AIADMK, AMMK, MDMK, PMK, and PT.  If they get all of them it will be a significant force and will cut enough votes from AIADMK to ensure a likely DMK-INC 39-0 sweep in TN.

[jaichind]

BJP released another wave of MP assembly election candidates.  It includes 7 sitting MPs.  It seems the BJP is going all out to try to win MP.  This speaks to the threat INC must be posing to the BJP in this election and the level of priority the BJP is assigning to this election.

[eos]

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/probably-winning-telangana-certainly-winning-mp-and-chhattisgarh-very-close-in-rajasthan-rahul/article67340795.ece

Rahul Gandhi:  Congress is certainly winning Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, probably winning Telangana, and there is a "very close" contest in Rajasthan

Conclusion INC will lose Rajasthan for sure

I would give INC 80% chance of winning in Chhattisgarh, 66% in MP, and 50% in Telengana. I agree INC will lose Rajasthan, but I still have faint suspicions that BJP might just fall short of an absolute majority, perhaps 95-100 seats of 200.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/probably-winning-telangana-certainly-winning-mp-and-chhattisgarh-very-close-in-rajasthan-rahul/article67340795.ece

Rahul Gandhi:  Congress is certainly winning Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, probably winning Telangana, and there is a "very close" contest in Rajasthan

Conclusion INC will lose Rajasthan for sure

I would give INC 80% chance of winning in Chhattisgarh, 66% in MP, and 50% in Telengana. I agree INC will lose Rajasthan, but I still have faint suspicions that BJP might just fall short of an absolute majority, perhaps 95-100 seats of 200.

What gives the INC such a good chance in Telengana?

[jaichind]

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/probably-winning-telangana-certainly-winning-mp-and-chhattisgarh-very-close-in-rajasthan-rahul/article67340795.ece

Rahul Gandhi:  Congress is certainly winning Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, probably winning Telangana, and there is a "very close" contest in Rajasthan

Conclusion INC will lose Rajasthan for sure

I would give INC 80% chance of winning in Chhattisgarh, 66% in MP, and 50% in Telengana. I agree INC will lose Rajasthan, but I still have faint suspicions that BJP might just fall short of an absolute majority, perhaps 95-100 seats of 200.

My estimates are similar.  Just to be clear.  INC "winning" in  Telangana = (INC > BRS) and not INC absolute majority which I would put under 50%.  In Rajasthan, there is a 95% chance BJP will win with about an equal chance of a narrow BJP victory and a BJP blowout.

[jaichind]

https://www.indiatvnews.com/news/india/jana-sena-party-tdp-alliance-pawan-kalyan-chandrababu-naidu-andhra-pradesh-assembly-elections-bjp-ysrcp-jagan-mohan-reddy-latest-updates-2023-09-14-892649

"Pawan Kalyan announces alliance with Chandrababu Naidu's TDP for next Andhra Pradesh elections"

Not clear if BJP is part of this

It has been two weeks since the announcement of the TDP-JSP alliance in AP.  Still, no news from the BJP if they are going to be part of this.  The BJP must be stuck between holding on to its leverage over YRSCP and the risk of it being a non-factor in the 2024 LS and assembly elections.

[eos]

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/probably-winning-telangana-certainly-winning-mp-and-chhattisgarh-very-close-in-rajasthan-rahul/article67340795.ece

Rahul Gandhi:  Congress is certainly winning Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, probably winning Telangana, and there is a "very close" contest in Rajasthan

Conclusion INC will lose Rajasthan for sure

I would give INC 80% chance of winning in Chhattisgarh, 66% in MP, and 50% in Telengana. I agree INC will lose Rajasthan, but I still have faint suspicions that BJP might just fall short of an absolute majority, perhaps 95-100 seats of 200.

What gives the INC such a good chance in Telengana?

BRS is suffering from major anti-incumbency after 10 years in government. INC is still seen as the main opposition, with BJP a distant third. BJP voters consolidated around BRS in 2018 state elections to block a possible INC coalition government with TDP. In 2018, BRS got 46.9% of the vote, while INC+ got 32.9% and BJP had 7.1%. In 2019 LS elections, BRS then got 41.7%, INC 29.8% and BJP+ 19.9%. Based on ground reports, it seems even those BJP voters who voted BRS in 2018 are discontented with the state government and will vote BJP or even switch to INC.

BRS is also suffering from the fact that the Telengana regionalist sentiments have subsided. INC led Indian/Andhra government had reacted somewhat violently against Telengana protestors even if it did end up agreeing to statehood demands. However, this is all a distant memory now. With the creation of Telengana and 10 years of BRS government, the Telengana movement has reached its promised land. Unsurprisingly, BRS gave up the regionalist name of TRS in 2022 to widen its base due to the weakening of the regionalist plank.

INC has two things going for them. The victory in Karnataka in 2023 gave it a major boost by galvanising its supporters in the South and by reinforcing perceptions that it is still the premier national party in the region. So, people disenchanted with the BRS will naturally migrate to INC. The INC also poached Revanth Reddy from TDP to become its Telengana leader and he is fairly popular and credible as a possible CM.

BRS is still formidable in Telengana and has a decent shot of being the single largest party despite the anti-incumbency. If BJP vote collapses for some reason, BRS will benefit and storm back to power. However, momentum seems to be on INC's side and this has forced BRS to make moves like nominating almost all candidates well in advance of the elections.

 

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/probably-winning-telangana-certainly-winning-mp-and-chhattisgarh-very-close-in-rajasthan-rahul/article67340795.ece

Rahul Gandhi:  Congress is certainly winning Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, probably winning Telangana, and there is a "very close" contest in Rajasthan

Conclusion INC will lose Rajasthan for sure

I would give INC 80% chance of winning in Chhattisgarh, 66% in MP, and 50% in Telengana. I agree INC will lose Rajasthan, but I still have faint suspicions that BJP might just fall short of an absolute majority, perhaps 95-100 seats of 200.

What gives the INC such a good chance in Telengana?

SNIP
 

This is an unrelated question but I wonder what your Thoughts on American politics is . What party do you usually support and what’s your prediction for 24 right now

[eos]

This is an unrelated question but I wonder what your Thoughts on American politics is . What party do you usually support and what’s your prediction for 24 right now

I am mostly based in the UK and voted Lib Dem in 2019. I would put myself in the centre of the UK political spectrum. I didn't mind David Cameron as PM and don't mind Keir Starmer becoming the next PM. I am not a big fan of the Democratic Party's progressive wing and I dislike various aspects of the Republican Party's social platform. In the US, I think I would vote Libertarian, but I don't like all of their platform either.

I think Trump is favoured to win the electoral college in 2024 by flipping Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin. However, my engagement with American politics is superficial. I am mostly basing this prediction on the fact that these three states were very close in 2020 and the opinion polls seem to projecting Trump neck to neck with, or slightly ahead of, Biden. I am not particularly knowledgeable about local trends that might alter the dynamics. I do come across opinions on how Arizona and Georgia are both moving away from the Republicans, but I am not sure if I should agree with them. I think that Trump would have won in 2020 without the Covid pandemic.

[jaichind]

https://www.deccanherald.com/india/maharashtra/decide-within-seven-days-vba-tells-congress-2699890

"Decide within 7 days if you want us to join I.N.D.I.A: VBA to Congress"

VBA says to INC to let them into INDIA alliance within 7 days or else VBA will run separately.  VBA does have a significant vote base with Dalits and Muslims and getting them into the INDIA alliance will make a difference. 

[jaichind]

BJP released another wave of MP assembly election candidates.  It includes 7 sitting MPs.  It seems the BJP is going all out to try to win MP.  This speaks to the threat INC must be posing to the BJP in this election and the level of priority the BJP is assigning to this election.

https://twitter.com/politicalbaaba/status/1706868837520748668

[jaichind]

https://www.news9live.com/state/telangana/komatireddy-raj-gopal-reddy-set-to-exit-telangana-bjp-join-congress-2300005

"Komatireddy Raj Gopal Reddy set to exit Telangana BJP, join Congress"

This is really funny.  Komatireddy Raj Gopal Reddy was an INC MP and ten INC MLA elected in 2018 in Telangana.  Last year seeing BJP surge in the state he decided to join BJP provoking a by-election in which he ran as BJP and lost to BRS.  He then expected a top leadership role in the Telangana BJP which he did not get.  Now in 2023 with INC surging in Telangana and BJP sagging, it seems Komatireddy Raj Gopal Reddy and some other BJP leaders who became part of his faction are looking to rejoin INC, going full circle.

This reminds me of my standard template news article for Indian politician defections

<Politician A> has left <Party X> to join <Party Y> along with his/her followers.  Speaking in the presence of <Leader M> of <Party Y> with his/her followers, <Politician A> indicated that he/she was being sidelined in <Party X> and frustrated by the increasingly autocratic nature of the way <Party X> was run and led by <Leader N who is most likely a rival of Leader M>.   <Politician A> also said that he/she was disturbed by the anti-people policies of <Party X> and decided that the only way he/she could fight for pro-people policies is to to join <Party Y>.  <Politician A> concluded by saying that he/she does not seek any nomination for any office and only wishes to fight as a regular party worker for <Party Y> under the leadership of <Leader M> in the upcoming elections.

[jaichind]

https://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2023/sep/27/2024-lok-sabha-polls-samajwadi-party-may-spare-around-19-invincible-seats-to-allies-in-up-2618760.html

"2024 Lok Sabha polls: Samajwadi party may spare around 19 ‘invincible’ seats to allies in UP"

It seems SP will give 19 seats to INC and RLD.  That will not be acceptable to INC since RLD will expect around 3-5 seats Western UP Jat seat leaving 14-16 to INC.  I can see a situation where INC takes this 14-16 but then runs another 20-30 seats against SP.

Of course, the quality of these 19 seats is not going to be "good"

“The party, this time, has decided to initially leave those seats which it could never win for the allies,”

This will suit RLD fine since SP is weak in the Western Jat seats anyway but such a criteria would mean perhaps 2-3 winnable seats for INC beyond Amethi and Rae Bareli.  The INC will find this not acceptable.

[jaichind]

https://www.timesnownews.com/india/rajasthan-assembly-election-opinion-poll-2023-no-clear-winner-as-bjp-holds-marginal-edge-times-now-etg-survey-article-104049562

"No Clear Winner In Rajasthan As BJP Holds Marginal Edge: Times Now Survey"

Times Now ETG poll for Rajasthan

BJP    100
INC     96
Others  4

Vote share gap of 0.6% between BJP and INC.

Again, given the incumbency advantage of INC, this poll implies a solid BJP victory.  However, the fact that INC is so close does indicate that INC is likely to avoid a blowout defeat.

[jaichind]

Times Now ETG poll for MP

INC     123
BJP     106
Others    1



With the BJP's incumbency advantage in MP, a poll for them to be behind is not good for the BJP.  They are looking at defeat and the defeat, unlike 2018, might be significant.

[jaichind]

It seems for the Chhattisgarh assembly elections the BJP will also nominate a few MPs.  You have to give credit to the BJP for their killer instinct.  They fight every election as if it were their last.

[eos]

https://www.timesnownews.com/india/rajasthan-assembly-election-opinion-poll-2023-no-clear-winner-as-bjp-holds-marginal-edge-times-now-etg-survey-article-104049562

"No Clear Winner In Rajasthan As BJP Holds Marginal Edge: Times Now Survey"

Times Now ETG poll for Rajasthan

BJP    100
INC     96
Others  4

Vote share gap of 0.6% between BJP and INC.

Again, given the incumbency advantage of INC, this poll implies a solid BJP victory.  However, the fact that INC is so close does indicate that INC is likely to avoid a blowout defeat.

I had a feeling that it was trending this way for quite some time now. INC has done an unusually good job avoiding its usual meltdowns as the incumbent in Rajasthan.

[eos]

Times Now ETG poll for MP

INC     123
BJP     106
Others    1



With the BJP's incumbency advantage in MP, a poll for them to be behind is not good for the BJP.  They are looking at defeat and the defeat, unlike 2018, might be significant.

I think the INC is edging closer to a comfortable win. The BJP is clearly rattled by its inability to turn the elections into a Presidential contest so far.

[eos]

It seems for the Chhattisgarh assembly elections the BJP will also nominate a few MPs.  You have to give credit to the BJP for their killer instinct.  They fight every election as if it were their last.

It's quite likely that many of these MPs will lose the assembly elections in a INC comfortable victory and then register blowout victories for BJP in the LS elections. INC is actually still quite strong in the Hindi belt. They just need to get rid of Modi somehow. When Modi's premiership is on the line, these people vote radically different. I wonder if the NDA falls short of a majority, the parties propping up a possible NDA government (YSRCP, BJD etc) could demand another BJP PM.

[jaichind]

I think the INC is edging closer to a comfortable win. The BJP is clearly rattled by its inability to turn the elections into a Presidential contest so far.

The 2023 MP assembly election might be the first MP election (LS and assembly) since 1998 where INC will win the popular vote.  If their vote share victory is greater than ~2% then it will be the largest INC vote share victory in MP since 1985.

[jaichind]

https://www.deccanherald.com/elections/madhya-pradesh/bsp-forms-alliance-with-gondwana-gantantra-party-in-poll-bound-mp-2707513

"BSP forms alliance with Gondwana Gantantra Party in poll-bound MP"

BSP-GGP alliance in MP.  All things equal this will hit INC more.  A good part of the old BSP base has gone over to BJP in the last decade.  If this alliance pulls back some of those votes then the hit on BJP could be greater than the hit on INC.  Overall I think the BSP graph in MP is still heading downward.

[jaichind]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/imphal/bjp-manipur-unit-writes-to-jp-nadda-flags-public-anger/articleshow/104052414.cms

"BJP Manipur unit writes to JP Nadda, flags ‘public anger'"

Manipur's BJP writes to Indian Prez complaining about how its own government is not able to contain ethnic violence.

[jaichind]

News 24 polls

MP - narrow BJP win with tiny vote share lead
            Seat           Vote share
BJP        119            45.6%
INC        109            45.1%
Others        2

A poll with this narrow margin for an incumbent usually means it will lose






Chhattisgarh - sizeable INC lead   
                 Seat            Vote share
INC              57                45.1%
BJP              32                38.9%
Others           1

A lead of this size means INC should be able to win although most likely it will be by a margin lower than this.