India 2023 assembly elections

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/rishibagree/status/1711782073885987322?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogl...

How much does this...actually matter here? I know the rabid eternally-Modi/BJP online brigades are all for Israel cause they are anti-Muslim no matter what. But they are not exactly a representative group.

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/rishibagree/status/1711782073885987322?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogl...

How much does this...actually matter here? I know the rapid eternally-Modi/BJP online brigades are all for Israel cause they are anti-Muslim no matter what. But they are not exactly a representative group.

Indians have generally been more pro Israel than Indian politicians were and this is especially true of those who vote BJP.

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India%E2%80%93Israel_relations#Cultural_ties_and_cross-country_perceptions

According to a 2009 international study commissioned by the Israeli Foreign Ministry, the greatest level of sympathy towards Israel can be found in India, with 58% of Indian respondents showing sympathy towards Israel.[204]

As reported in 2015, opinion polls taken in India showed 70% and above of respondents had favorable views of Israel

[jaichind]

Pro-INC Lok Poll survey on MP has INC ahead

                Seats        Vote share
INC            125             45%
BJP            103              44%
BSP               1                3%
Others           1                7%

[jaichind]

Local Telangana media BIG TV poll has INC ahead of BRS

[jaichind]

Pro-INC (more anti-BJP) Ground Zero poll for Telangana has BRS with a narrow majority based on support for BRS CM KCR

[jaichind]

Ground Zero poll for Chhattisgarh has INC well ahead

[jaichind]

Anti-BJP Democracy Times poll for Telangana has BRS with a narrow majority

          Seat   Vote share
BRS       67     41%
INC       40      35%
BJP:        6      13%
AIMIM     6        3%
Others    0        8%

[jaichind]

Ground Zero poll for MP has INC with the lead with BJP and INC neck to neck in terms of the CM race.  For the incumbent BJP CM to be only 3% ahead of the INC CM candidate is not a good sign for BJP even in this pro-INC poll.

[jaichind]

Ground Zero poll for Rajasthan.  BJP is ahead even though INC is winning the CM matchup.  The anti-incumbency against the local INC MLAs is just too much

[jaichind]

https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/lok-sabha-polls-2024/story/eknath-shinde-shiv-sena-maharashtra-lok-sabha-seats-ncp-ajit-pawar-2449868-2023-10-16

"Eknath Shinde reaffirms Shiv Sena's claim on 22 of 48 seats in Lok Sabha polls"

Back in the 2019 LS elections, the united SHS was given 23 out of 48 seats in Maharastra to run in.  Now the Shinde faction of SHS demands 22 seats claiming to be the true SHS.  This will make it impossible for the BJP to keep its flock together and still give anything meaningful to the Ajit Pawar faction of NCP. 

[jaichind]

https://www.indiatvnews.com/uttar-pradesh/akhilesh-yadav-big-up-warning-for-congress-after-mp-snub-india-alliance-madhya-pradesh-assembly-election-2023-2023-10-19-898650

"Akhilesh Yadav's big UP warning for Congress after MP snub: 'Get ready for...' "

SP upset that INC did not allocate SP seats in MP threatening to leave INDIA alliance.

[jaichind]

India TV CNX MP poll has bare BJP majority

           Seats     Vote share
BJP       115        44%
INC       110        43%
Others      5

[jaichind]

India TV CNX for Rajasthan has a solid BJP lead

              Seats     Vote Share
BJP          125             45%
INC           72             40%
Others        3

[jaichind]

India Today C-Voter poll on Telangana has INC slightly ahead

             Seats       Vote share
INC          54             39%
BRS         49             38%
BJP           8              16%
AIMIM       7
BSP          1



If these were the results BRS will find a way to break BJP and have some BJP MLAs defect to BRS and then ally with AIMIM to get a majority

[jaichind]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/a-miracle-that-congress-now-wants-caste-census-says-samajwadi-party-chief-akhilesh-yadav/articleshow/104601216.cms?from=mdr

"'A miracle that Congress now wants caste census', says Samajwadi Party Chief Akhilesh Yadav"

It now seems very likely there will be no SP-INC alliance in UP next year.  It seems all set for a BJP sweep of UP once you adjust for the Modi factor.  The only hope SP has is the anti-BJP part of the BSP vote swings to SP AND the pro-BJP part of the BJP vote still votes BSP.  That was its hope back in the 2022 UP assembly election and it mostly did not materialize.
 

[jaichind]

Pro-INC Lok Poll survey has a 3-way tie in Mizoram with a swing from both MNF and INC to ZPM.  MNF has suffered due to anti-Kuki violence in Manipur where the voters blame the BJP and then indirectly its de facto ally MNF.

[jaichind]

India TV CNX poll for Telangana has a solid BRS lead

                Seats      Vote share
BRS            70         43%
INC             34         37%
BJP               7         11%
AIMIM           7           3%
Others          1                       (I assume BSP)

[jaichind]

India TV CNX poll for Chhattisgarh has INC lead

           Seats    Vote share
INC         50       45%
BJP         38        42%
Others      2

[jaichind]

The difference between the India Today C-Voter poll (INC edge) and India TV CNX (solid BRS) poll for Telangana seems to be the BJP vote.  The stronger the BJP vote the worse is it for BRS and the better it is for INC. So this election might be a replay of 2018 where the BJP tactical vote was critical to the result.

The latest news is the BJP is trying to form an alliance with JSP in Telangana.  That is bad news for INC and good news for BRS.  The JSP candidates will not have any real roots in Telangana (except for some seats with some Kapus) which de facto gives an edge to BRS in those seats as the BJP vote there are likely to shift to BRS.

[jaichind]

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/india/bjp-fields-3-of-its-4-ls-mps-in-telangana-555736

"BJP fields 3 of its 4 LS MPs in Telangana"

BJP continues the practice of fielding MPs in assembly elections in Telangana

[OSR stands with Israel]

So why is the BJP struggling so much and does it say much about 2024

[jaichind]

So why is the BJP struggling so much and does it say much about 2024

Well, the BJP is not "struggling."  In the 4 big states, I expect the BJP to increase its vote share in all 4.  The main "problem" is that in Telangana the BJP vote share increase will help INC which will also increase their vote share.    In MP INC will also grow their vote share and by just enough to defeat BJP.  In Chhattisgarh, the BJP vote share growth is likely not enough to defeat INC.  In Rajasthan, the INC will also grow its vote share but will lose to the BJP.

So BJP's main "problem" is the INC seems to be regaining strength from a couple of years ago.  The main turnaround seems to be Mallikarjun Kharge being INC Prez.  It turns out that Rahul Gandhi is fairly good at being a mascot and messenger (not as good as Modi but right now #2 in India) but a poor administrator.  Shifting the INC party administration over to Mallikarjun Kharge seems to be working for INC since the Gandhi clan has a high level of trust with Mallikarjun Kharge and vice versa.

In theory, a below-average 2023 assembly election season will not be a problem for BJP in 2024 since Modi will be on the ticket.  The INC organization and messaging getting better will be a problem for BJP in 2024 but not enough for them to lose.

[jaichind]

I did a seat-by-seat review of all BJP and INC candidates in MP.  It is clear that the BJP is trying to make this a seat-by-seat election.  The BJP brought in 6 former BJP MLAs (who did not run in 2018) and 7 BJP MPs to throw them into the battle hoping their personal vote would carry the BJP.    Despite talk of BJP dropping incumbents where they face anti-incumbency, it turned out they only dropped 26 out of 109 2018 winners (although 2 out of the 109 did pass away) which is sizeable but not massive.  The drop rate for sitting MLA is lower than in some of the other states where the BJP felt they were facing anti-incumbency.  Overall the the BJP seems to be betting on the personal vote of their candidates to carry them.

[jaichind]

Chart on MP nominations.  This count of dropped MLAs includes BJP MLAs that defected from INC or were elected via by-election ergo does not match my count of 109 2018 BJP MLAs that were not re-nominated.  Anyway the community breakdown of BJP and INC candidates mostly mirror each other.

[jaichind]

Pro-INC Lok Poll survey Chhattisgarh has INC ahead by a solid margin

I think INC will win by a smaller margin than this survey suggests but INC is most likely ahead