India 2023 assembly elections

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

In the 2018 Meghalaya assembly elections INC won 21 seats out of 60 seats. This made INC the largest party in 2018.  The number of INC MLAs that will run for re-election for INC is zero.

Out of the 21 INC winners of 2018

7 joined AITC with 6 of them running for re-election as AITC (one, a former INC CM, has his daughter running as AITC in his seat)
6 joined NPP and will run for re-election as NPP
4 joined UDP and will run for re-election as UDP
1 joined BJP and will run for re-election as BJP
3 passed away

And if you think the INC list of candidates will have no incumbents you will be wrong.  It turns out that the single NCP MLA elected in 2018 has defected to INC and will most likely run for INC.

If I had a hundred thousand lakh ruphees for every defecting MLA in Meghalaya, I would be the richest man in India.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Episode 2 of the BBC documentary on Modi came out.

Episode 1 basically is "Modi is the mastermind behind the 2002 Gujarat riots"
Episode 2 basically is "Under Modi, Indian Muslims are second-class citizens"

One can debate if these characterizations are correct.  But what is not in dispute is that a Western liberal woke media making these documentaries will merely consolidate political support for the regime as is the case in all other situations like this.   Worst for INC,  the BBC will be viewed to be in league with INC and only help BJP at the national level.

Also this is the issue with creating the precedent that “misinformation” should be taken down . Once the precedent was created , it’s gonna be used more and more and that is something that isn’t good

Frankly irresponsible of the BBC if we're being honest with ourselves. A fake news documentary that makes Modi look better in the eyes of his people helps nobody but the BBC.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Episode 2 of the BBC documentary on Modi came out.

Episode 1 basically is "Modi is the mastermind behind the 2002 Gujarat riots"
Episode 2 basically is "Under Modi, Indian Muslims are second-class citizens"

One can debate if these characterizations are correct.  But what is not in dispute is that a Western liberal woke media making these documentaries will merely consolidate political support for the regime as is the case in all other situations like this.   Worst for INC,  the BBC will be viewed to be in league with INC and only help BJP at the national level.

Also this is the issue with creating the precedent that “misinformation” should be taken down . Once the precedent was created , it’s gonna be used more and more and that is something that isn’t good

Frankly irresponsible of the BBC if we're being honest with ourselves. A fake news documentary that makes Modi look better in the eyes of his people helps nobody but the BBC.

I’m sorry ‘fake news’?

Seriously?

Ever heard of the boy who cried wolf?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Episode 2 of the BBC documentary on Modi came out.

Episode 1 basically is "Modi is the mastermind behind the 2002 Gujarat riots"
Episode 2 basically is "Under Modi, Indian Muslims are second-class citizens"

One can debate if these characterizations are correct.  But what is not in dispute is that a Western liberal woke media making these documentaries will merely consolidate political support for the regime as is the case in all other situations like this.   Worst for INC,  the BBC will be viewed to be in league with INC and only help BJP at the national level.

Also this is the issue with creating the precedent that “misinformation” should be taken down . Once the precedent was created , it’s gonna be used more and more and that is something that isn’t good

Frankly irresponsible of the BBC if we're being honest with ourselves. A fake news documentary that makes Modi look better in the eyes of his people helps nobody but the BBC.

I’m sorry ‘fake news’?

Seriously?

Ever heard of the boy who cried wolf?

Exactly what are you disputing?

Where’s the lies?

Was Narendra Modi not complicit in the mass murder of Muslims in Gujarat?
Is the Indian government under Modi not systematically discriminating against Muslims in India?

Can we consider that BBC's way of operating seems to be driven by a desire to court controversy and is unlikely to hold the truth in the highest of regard?
You don't have to consider the handling of the riots in 2002 to be masterminded by Modi in order to be able to justify thinking less of Modi because of it.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I guess that for now it is Khalistan 1, government 0.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/rahul-gandhi-faces-lok-sabha-disqualification-risk-over-2-year-sentence-in-defamation-case-490644

"Rahul Gandhi faces Lok Sabha disqualification risk over 2-year sentence in defamation case"

Rahul Gandhi was found guilty and given a 2-year jail sentence over a 2019 criminal defamation case which involved him saying "How come all thieves have surname Modi" over allegations of corruption in the Modi government. 

Rahul Gandhi will appeal but if he does not win he could lose his LS seats.  Overall this is not good news for BJP.  Modi and the BJP are set to win with ease in 2024 with Rahul Gandhi as the face of INC and other anti-BJP parties trying to form a third front.  Any change in the dynamics is merely risk for the BJP in an election they are set to win.

Is there a risk such a defamation case ending this way could create sympathy for Rahul and INC?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What would LS distribution look like after the planned 2026 LS delimitation if you have a rule that no state will lose any seats

Massive gains for non-Upper Caste Hindi heartland states.  A decline in influence in the South
 

This will shift more power to the poorer North which is certain to use their new political power to shift resources from the richer non-Hindi South toward the Hindi North

What would the numbers look like if the seat number stayed the same?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What would the numbers look like if the seat number stayed the same?

Something like this

At some point, it seems there will have to be a redistricting. And the impact on places like Kerala will be utterly brutal. It will make the impact on rural America of the 1930s round of redistricting (there was no changes in the 1920s, they were cancelled) look like a picnic.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

snip

How much say did the Modi government and state government have over who got on the commission?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/delhi/alliance-congress-delhi-ordinance-aap-8682455/

What exactly is this veto that the AAP seems to be trying to impose?

Since Delhi is a Territory and not a state the "state"  government  that AAP heads has more limited powers.  The BJP is trying to push a new law that takes away even more powers and shift more control of public services (police, education, medical etc etc) to the governor which is really a proxy for the BJP central government.    The AAP is hoping to block this law in the RS and demands INC helps them block this proposed law.

What calculations come into play for the INC in regards to yes or no on doing this?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Joke in Maharatra

"I voted only once in 2019 and got 3 CM and 4 DCM.  That's the power of a single vote in Maharashtra these days. "

Lol.
That's a great joke.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/politicalbaaba/status/1698979799107240203

Is there any real movement to rename the country at all?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is there any real movement to rename the country at all?

Not really.  This is never been an issue that I am aware of.  The Indian Constitution has both names in it anyway so this will not be a rename but a removal of the name "India" since Bharat is already there. 
 

I struggle to see the Indian people connecting with this...it might even gift the anti-BJP forces room to paint them as desperate. But stranger things have happened.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

All signs are that Women's Reservation of 1/3 will take place when the LS seat count goes from 543 to 888.  If so this will have no relevance in the 2024 LS election.

Does anyone think an 888 member Lok Sabha is too big? If so, how many?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

All signs are that Women's Reservation of 1/3 will take place when the LS seat count goes from 543 to 888.  If so this will have no relevance in the 2024 LS election.

Does anyone think an 888 member Lok Sabha is too big? If so, how many?

That would be the size needed to ensure roughly equal representation by population for most states AND no state loses seats.

I guess it makes more sense for parochial concerns to dominate here. "The Lok Sabha is too large" is a harder sell than "your state will not lose any seats".

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/probably-winning-telangana-certainly-winning-mp-and-chhattisgarh-very-close-in-rajasthan-rahul/article67340795.ece

Rahul Gandhi:  Congress is certainly winning Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, probably winning Telangana, and there is a "very close" contest in Rajasthan

Conclusion INC will lose Rajasthan for sure

I would give INC 80% chance of winning in Chhattisgarh, 66% in MP, and 50% in Telengana. I agree INC will lose Rajasthan, but I still have faint suspicions that BJP might just fall short of an absolute majority, perhaps 95-100 seats of 200.

What gives the INC such a good chance in Telengana?