India 2023 assembly elections

[jaichind]

https://www.livemint.com/politics/news/bihar-caste-based-census-out-extremely-backward-class-is-36-01-backward-class-2713-11696234333143.html

"Bihar caste-based census out: Extremely backward class is 36.01%, backward class 27.13%"

The long-awaited Bihar caste census that JD(U) and RJD have been pushing for is out.  As expected OBC EBC and Dalit numbers are up.  Note this census includes Muslims to get their caste identity even if they identify as Muslim and not Hindu. 

The entire purpose of this census is to show that OBC ECB and Dalit numbers are up creating a JD(U)-RJD argument for pushing up the quota cap beyond 50%.  JD(U)-RJD wants to run on such an argument to make elections in Bihar about forward vs. backward.  For the same reasons the BJP is against such a census since they want to frame Bihar elections are Hindu vs. Muslim.

Overall JD(U)-RJD got the ammo they needed.

[jaichind]

As I pointed out the Bihar caste census also includes Muslims in the various caste categories.   if you break them out you find that most Muslims are back of EBC.

EBC is a particular caste group category that is only used in Bihar.  They are meant to be the lower OBC.  This is primarily the idea of Nitish Kumar trying to break the Yadav leadership role of OBC by splitting the OBC into OBC and EBC.  This was meant to blunt his rival Lalu Yadav and his RJD.   Of course, now Nitish Kumar's JD(U) is allied with Lalu Yadav's RJD.

[jaichind]

Bihar caste census vs. the last caste census done (1931)

Muslims, OBC, EBC, Dalits, Up.  Upper Caste down.

[jaichind]

https://indianexpress.com/article/political-pulse/who-is-the-true-votary-of-obcs-pm-modi-rahul-gandhi-battle-it-out-in-poll-speeches-8963054/

"Who is the true votary of OBCs? PM Modi, Rahul Gandhi battle it out in poll speeches"

In his speech at Bilaspur, an area that kept the BJP flag up even when it was routed in the 2018 Assembly elections, Modi said the Congress “hates” OBCs and “hates: him because, “despite being an OBC”, he became the PM, a post the party saw as “reserved” for it.

Sensing the Bihar caste census will be used by the opposition to try to make the upcoming election forward vs backward, Modi is preempting this by talking up the fact that he is OBC and that INC hates him because he is OBC.

[jaichind]

It is interesting that in MP the BJP will not project CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan as the CM face but instead ask for votes in the name of Modi.  The INC being out of power will project former CM Kamal Nath as its CM face.  It seems the BJP strategy is to make this a seat-by-seat contest where the quality of the local candidate is important while INC wants to make this a fight of CM faces.  It is in this context that one sees the BJP's strategy of running MPs in some seats.  Overall to have a CM but not project him as the CM face does not sound like it will work.  You are already projecting a lack of confidence.  BJP's read of the situation might still be right but I am not so sure their strategy is.

[jaichind]

The next step in the Bihar caste census is for JD(U) CM Nitish Kumar to release social-economic data by caste.  The expected disparities between castes will be used by the INDIA alliance to push social justice to counter the BJP's Hindutva narrative.   The BJP strategy is always to turn elections into Hindu vs. Muslim and the non-INC opposition strategy is to always turn elections into forward vs. backward.  With the BJP planning to push the successful construction Ram temple next year the 2024 election could again be another Mandir vs. Mandal election.

[jaichind]

https://www.news18.com/politics/andhra-pradesh-pawan-kalyan-pulls-out-of-nda-to-back-tdp-8603976.html

"Andhra Pradesh: Pawan Kalyan Pulls Out of NDA to Back TDP"

JSP pulls out of NDA.  It seems the BJP has decided not to join the TDP-JSP alliance.

[jaichind]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/pollbound-madhya-pradesh-notifies-35-quota-for-women-in-govt-jobs-101696474836519.html

"Poll-bound Madhya Pradesh notifies 35% quota for women in govt jobs"

MP BJP CM  Shivraj Singh Chouhan announces 35% quota for women in MP government jobs.  Not clear how this is going to work with the OBC, Dalit, and tribal quotas.


This election cycle MP BJP CM  Shivraj Singh Chouhan is going all out to get the women's vote.  Here he is washing the feed of two women as part of some public spectacle. 
https://twitter.com/ChouhanShivraj/status/1709518270158790826

[jaichind]

Pro-INC anti-BJP Lok Poll poll for Telangana


INC       63       42.5%
BRS      47       40.5%
BJP        2        11.0%
AIMIM    7         3.5%
Others   0         4.0%

Given the pro-INC lean of Lok Poll but likely BRS incumbency advantage in terms of polls, this poll would indicate that the INC is headed to a narrow win.

[jaichind]

The next step in the Bihar caste census is for JD(U) CM Nitish Kumar to release social-economic data by caste.  The expected disparities between castes will be used by the INDIA alliance to push social justice to counter the BJP's Hindutva narrative.   The BJP strategy is always to turn elections into Hindu vs. Muslim and the non-INC opposition strategy is to always turn elections into forward vs. backward.  With the BJP planning to push the successful construction Ram temple next year the 2024 election could again be another Mandir vs. Mandal election.

I suspect when the  social-economic data by caste comes out it will show that some EBC castes are even more deprived when compared to Dalits.  There will be a push to increase reservation numbers for EBCs.   This will put the BJP in a tough spot since the core BJP vote is the Upper caste vote which will be opposed to this.  But to oppose this will put BJP gains with EBC last couple of election cycles in trouble especially when the  numbers will be released that EBC are in poor social-economic  shape.

[jaichind]

CSDS data on how OBC has voted over the years.  Both INC and BJP have been historically weak with OBC votes.  The various Janata parties (RJD JD(U) SP etc have been historically strong with OBC) BJP had a surge in the OBC vote as part of the Modi surge (Modi himself being OBC).  The BJP surge with OBC is mostly with lower OBCs due to resentment of upper OBCs (mostly Yadavs) that they view as hogging most of the benefits that are meant to go to all OBCs.  The BJP has been able to target this group since 2014.  The caste survey in Bihar is meant to reverse this by how that lower OBCs have not improved their social-economic standing even after the started to vote for BJP.

[jaichind]

Competing INC and BJP posters.  INC cast Modi as the demonic Danava while BJP cast Rahul Gandhi as Ravan, the mortal enemy of Lord Ram and funded by George Soros.

[jaichind]

BJP already linking India's fairly small Muslim insurgency to Hamas
https://twitter.com/BJP4India/status/1710691137558810637

[jaichind]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/newsclick-founder-conspired-to-sabotage-2019-polls-siphoned-off-funds-fir-101696583492155.html

"NewsClick founder conspired to sabotage 2019 polls, siphoned off funds: FIR"

Indian government raided Leftist/Anti-BJP media outfit Newsclick saying that it is taking PRC money to sabotage 2019 elections.   

[jaichind]

Assembly election dates are out

Exit polls Nov 30th
Counting Dec 3rd

[jaichind]

The first wave of BJP candidates in Rajasthan has 7 MPs. So the BJP's strategy this year of fielding MPs in assembly elections is across the board.

[jaichind]

ABP Mizoram poll.  A 3-way battle between MNF INC and ZPM

             Seats       Vote share
MNF        14              31%
INC         13              28%
ZPM        12              27%
Others      1              14%    (I assume half of this will be BJP)




In theory, this poll looks bad for MNF but my rule of thumb is that pre-election poll overestimating incumbent governments does not really hold in the Northeast where the role of local administration to shift votes on election day is much more powerful even with a caretaker government during elections.  

The only way the ruling government underperforms pre-election polls is in an anti-incumbent wave situation.  Those waves tend to come every 2-3 election cycles so in theory MNF should not be facing one of those waves.  The X factor will be the role anti-Kuki Manipur violence would play and how much of that will blow back on MNF as an ally of the BJP.

MNF's best play here is to try to distance itself from BJP during the election much like NPP did during the Meghalaya assembly elections earlier this year.

[jaichind]

ABP Telengana poll - does not look good for BRS

INC        54         39%
BRS       49         38%
BJP          8         16%
Others     8           7%  (7 out of 8 seats and around 3% will be AIMIM)

BJP is up 9% from 2018.  This is the anti-INC BJP tactical vote for BRS in 2018 coming back to BJP.  For TRS as the ruling party to be behind in a pre-election poll is not good for BRS.  In 2022 the BRS took an anti-BJP position seeing BJP as its main enemy in the 2023 assembly elections.  The INC-BJP fortunes flipped since the Karnataka assembly election and BJP implosions.  Now BRS is warming up to the BJP hoping for the BJP tactical vote again.  Most likely it will not work this time.

[jaichind]

All 14 sitting BJP MLAs in Chhattisgarh have been re-nominated.  I guess 2018 was such a collapse of the BJP that the BJP high command figured anyone who survived that rout must be made of electoral steel so they are re-nominated. 

[jaichind]

ABP C-Voter poll  for Chhattisgarh

           Seat    Vote share
INC        48        45%
BJP        42         44%
Others     0         11%

For INC to have such a small lead pre-election means this race has moved to tossup with INC losing ground since earlier in the year.

[jaichind]

ABP C-Voter poll  for MP
 
                  Seat      Vote share
INC              119          45%
BJP              110          45%
BSP                0            2%
Others            1            8%

Again the BJP is slightly behind as the ruling party in a pre-election vote seems to indicate a slight INC edge.  From a vote share-to-seat translation point of view, it is true that historically INC has an edge here, namely a vote share tie should imply a small INC majority.

[Continential]

In a hung assembly in Telangana would the BJP support the Congress or BRS?

[jaichind]

In a hung assembly in Telangana would the BJP support the Congress or BRS?

In that situation, the national BJP will push the local BJP to back BRS.  The local BJP will push back saying that they are pushing anti-BRS votes to INC.  Most likely in the long term the national BJP will have their way.

[jaichind]

ABP C-Voter poll  for Rajasthan

             Seats     Vote share
BJP          132         47%
INC           65          42%
Others        3           11%

The BJP lead seems to indicate a BJP landslide is possible now

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/rishibagree/status/1711782073885987322?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogl...