Scandal in the Wind 2023. George Santos gets Sashayed

[NewYorkExpress]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1699069587508388030?s=20

Shouln’t Santos just try to run out the clock to the end of 2024 so he can complete his term.

I mean, I imagine he’s far more concerned with staying out of prison or at least doing as little time as possible than he is with NY-3 staying in Republican hands

I’ll believe Santos is gone when I see it. He’s too shameless to resign voluntarily and criminal cases like this take time to reach a conclusion.

It has nothing to do with shame.  Part of any plea deal is going to be that he immediately resigns; that’s just how this stuff works.  That’s really the only leverage he has here.  You’re looking at this as though his priority is helping Republicans keep NY-3 and that is fundamentally wrong.  At this point, his first, second, and third priority is to avoid going to prison or failing that, to go to prison for as little time as possible.  No one in his current situation is going to care whether NY-3 flips or not.  

I think he tries his hardest to stall the proceedings so he doesn’t have to resign any time soon. I mean the Chris Collins case took over a year before he resigned.

I don't think you're quite grasping the tradeoff for Santos.  There's a real cost to him for delaying.  If he takes the hypothetical plea deal, he gets a lighter punishment -- possibly no jail time at all -- but in return, he must resign in the very near future.  If he tries to stall and keeps pushing things out, then the government will likely withdraw the plea deal, and then he's facing trial, conviction, and a longer sentence.  Santos obviously knows what he's actually guilty of, and has a good idea how likely it is that he'll be convicted.  

The tradeoff is staying another year-plus in Congress (no more than that, as he will surely lose reelection) at the cost of a possibly long prison sentence vs a short one or none at all.  Which would you choose?

I think it’s in the party’s best interest to keep him around so that the seat doesn’t flip back to the Democrats in the special.

It’s not up to the Republican Party.  It’s up to Santos and right now I guarantee you he doesn’t give a flip about anything but what’s in his best interest.  It is in his best interest to resign soon and plead out rather than drag this out.  The Republican Party’s interests or what gives it the best chance of holding NY-3 are both completely irrelevant.  With all due respect, to suggest otherwise is simply wishcasting.

How would you rate the chances a Democrat wins back the seat before November 2024?

Almost certain in a special, barring a disaster nominee for the Democrats and a perfect Republican nominee. It's less likely the Democrats will pick the seat up (or hold it, assuming they win the special) in the 2024 general with Santos gone. His resignation helps them in that regard.

Helps who?

The Republicans.

There's a couple of reasons. The Democrats don't need NY-3 to make their majority in the House, they'll have a bunch of other targets, including in New York alone, and Santos not being on the ballot, plus likely facing a Democratic incumbent, with an attackable voting record in a swing district in what will be likely a neutral year in the House benefits Republicans (pending who their nominee is).

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1699069587508388030?s=20

Shouln’t Santos just try to run out the clock to the end of 2024 so he can complete his term.

I mean, I imagine he’s far more concerned with staying out of prison or at least doing as little time as possible than he is with NY-3 staying in Republican hands

I’ll believe Santos is gone when I see it. He’s too shameless to resign voluntarily and criminal cases like this take time to reach a conclusion.

It has nothing to do with shame.  Part of any plea deal is going to be that he immediately resigns; that’s just how this stuff works.  That’s really the only leverage he has here.  You’re looking at this as though his priority is helping Republicans keep NY-3 and that is fundamentally wrong.  At this point, his first, second, and third priority is to avoid going to prison or failing that, to go to prison for as little time as possible.  No one in his current situation is going to care whether NY-3 flips or not.  

I think he tries his hardest to stall the proceedings so he doesn’t have to resign any time soon. I mean the Chris Collins case took over a year before he resigned.

I don't think you're quite grasping the tradeoff for Santos.  There's a real cost to him for delaying.  If he takes the hypothetical plea deal, he gets a lighter punishment -- possibly no jail time at all -- but in return, he must resign in the very near future.  If he tries to stall and keeps pushing things out, then the government will likely withdraw the plea deal, and then he's facing trial, conviction, and a longer sentence.  Santos obviously knows what he's actually guilty of, and has a good idea how likely it is that he'll be convicted.  

The tradeoff is staying another year-plus in Congress (no more than that, as he will surely lose reelection) at the cost of a possibly long prison sentence vs a short one or none at all.  Which would you choose?

I think it’s in the party’s best interest to keep him around so that the seat doesn’t flip back to the Democrats in the special.

It’s not up to the Republican Party.  It’s up to Santos and right now I guarantee you he doesn’t give a flip about anything but what’s in his best interest.  It is in his best interest to resign soon and plead out rather than drag this out.  The Republican Party’s interests or what gives it the best chance of holding NY-3 are both completely irrelevant.  With all due respect, to suggest otherwise is simply wishcasting.

How would you rate the chances a Democrat wins back the seat before November 2024?

Almost certain in a special, barring a disaster nominee for the Democrats and a perfect Republican nominee. It's less likely the Democrats will pick the seat up (or hold it, assuming they win the special) in the 2024 general with Santos gone. His resignation helps them in that regard.

Helps who?

The Republicans.

There's a couple of reasons. The Democrats don't need NY-3 to make their majority in the House, they'll have a bunch of other targets, including in New York alone, and Santos not being on the ballot, plus likely facing a Democratic incumbent, with an attackable voting record in a swing district in what will be likely a neutral year in the House benefits Republicans (pending who their nominee is).

This is still a Biden+8 seat so it’ll be hard for Republicans to win.

If Democrats win the special do you think it’s possible Republicans get D’Esposito to run here instead?

[NewYorkExpress]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1699069587508388030?s=20

Shouln’t Santos just try to run out the clock to the end of 2024 so he can complete his term.

I mean, I imagine he’s far more concerned with staying out of prison or at least doing as little time as possible than he is with NY-3 staying in Republican hands

I’ll believe Santos is gone when I see it. He’s too shameless to resign voluntarily and criminal cases like this take time to reach a conclusion.

It has nothing to do with shame.  Part of any plea deal is going to be that he immediately resigns; that’s just how this stuff works.  That’s really the only leverage he has here.  You’re looking at this as though his priority is helping Republicans keep NY-3 and that is fundamentally wrong.  At this point, his first, second, and third priority is to avoid going to prison or failing that, to go to prison for as little time as possible.  No one in his current situation is going to care whether NY-3 flips or not.  

I think he tries his hardest to stall the proceedings so he doesn’t have to resign any time soon. I mean the Chris Collins case took over a year before he resigned.

I don't think you're quite grasping the tradeoff for Santos.  There's a real cost to him for delaying.  If he takes the hypothetical plea deal, he gets a lighter punishment -- possibly no jail time at all -- but in return, he must resign in the very near future.  If he tries to stall and keeps pushing things out, then the government will likely withdraw the plea deal, and then he's facing trial, conviction, and a longer sentence.  Santos obviously knows what he's actually guilty of, and has a good idea how likely it is that he'll be convicted.  

The tradeoff is staying another year-plus in Congress (no more than that, as he will surely lose reelection) at the cost of a possibly long prison sentence vs a short one or none at all.  Which would you choose?

I think it’s in the party’s best interest to keep him around so that the seat doesn’t flip back to the Democrats in the special.

It’s not up to the Republican Party.  It’s up to Santos and right now I guarantee you he doesn’t give a flip about anything but what’s in his best interest.  It is in his best interest to resign soon and plead out rather than drag this out.  The Republican Party’s interests or what gives it the best chance of holding NY-3 are both completely irrelevant.  With all due respect, to suggest otherwise is simply wishcasting.

How would you rate the chances a Democrat wins back the seat before November 2024?

Almost certain in a special, barring a disaster nominee for the Democrats and a perfect Republican nominee. It's less likely the Democrats will pick the seat up (or hold it, assuming they win the special) in the 2024 general with Santos gone. His resignation helps them in that regard.

Helps who?

The Republicans.

There's a couple of reasons. The Democrats don't need NY-3 to make their majority in the House, they'll have a bunch of other targets, including in New York alone, and Santos not being on the ballot, plus likely facing a Democratic incumbent, with an attackable voting record in a swing district in what will be likely a neutral year in the House benefits Republicans (pending who their nominee is).

This is still a Biden+8 seat so it’ll be hard for Republicans to win.

If Democrats win the special do you think it’s possible Republicans get D’Esposito to run here instead?

I guess, but D'Esposito doesn't live in the district, and he'd be at risk of losing the primary to someone who does, plus Republicans would certainly be abandoning any chance of winning NY-4. They won't win there without an incumbent D'Esposito on the ballot in my opinion.

It's more likely that either Jack Martins or one of the Republicans in the State Assembly (possibly John Mikulin) gets the nomination instead in this scenario. Indeed, it's likely that one of them would be the nominee in any special election.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1699069587508388030?s=20

Shouln’t Santos just try to run out the clock to the end of 2024 so he can complete his term.

I mean, I imagine he’s far more concerned with staying out of prison or at least doing as little time as possible than he is with NY-3 staying in Republican hands

I’ll believe Santos is gone when I see it. He’s too shameless to resign voluntarily and criminal cases like this take time to reach a conclusion.

It has nothing to do with shame.  Part of any plea deal is going to be that he immediately resigns; that’s just how this stuff works.  That’s really the only leverage he has here.  You’re looking at this as though his priority is helping Republicans keep NY-3 and that is fundamentally wrong.  At this point, his first, second, and third priority is to avoid going to prison or failing that, to go to prison for as little time as possible.  No one in his current situation is going to care whether NY-3 flips or not.  

I think he tries his hardest to stall the proceedings so he doesn’t have to resign any time soon. I mean the Chris Collins case took over a year before he resigned.

I don't think you're quite grasping the tradeoff for Santos.  There's a real cost to him for delaying.  If he takes the hypothetical plea deal, he gets a lighter punishment -- possibly no jail time at all -- but in return, he must resign in the very near future.  If he tries to stall and keeps pushing things out, then the government will likely withdraw the plea deal, and then he's facing trial, conviction, and a longer sentence.  Santos obviously knows what he's actually guilty of, and has a good idea how likely it is that he'll be convicted.  

The tradeoff is staying another year-plus in Congress (no more than that, as he will surely lose reelection) at the cost of a possibly long prison sentence vs a short one or none at all.  Which would you choose?

I think it’s in the party’s best interest to keep him around so that the seat doesn’t flip back to the Democrats in the special.

It’s not up to the Republican Party.  It’s up to Santos and right now I guarantee you he doesn’t give a flip about anything but what’s in his best interest.  It is in his best interest to resign soon and plead out rather than drag this out.  The Republican Party’s interests or what gives it the best chance of holding NY-3 are both completely irrelevant.  With all due respect, to suggest otherwise is simply wishcasting.

How would you rate the chances a Democrat wins back the seat before November 2024?

Almost certain in a special, barring a disaster nominee for the Democrats and a perfect Republican nominee. It's less likely the Democrats will pick the seat up (or hold it, assuming they win the special) in the 2024 general with Santos gone. His resignation helps them in that regard.

Helps who?

The Republicans.

There's a couple of reasons. The Democrats don't need NY-3 to make their majority in the House, they'll have a bunch of other targets, including in New York alone, and Santos not being on the ballot, plus likely facing a Democratic incumbent, with an attackable voting record in a swing district in what will be likely a neutral year in the House benefits Republicans (pending who their nominee is).

This is still a Biden+8 seat so it’ll be hard for Republicans to win.

If Democrats win the special do you think it’s possible Republicans get D’Esposito to run here instead?

I guess, but D'Esposito doesn't live in the district, and he'd be at risk of losing the primary to someone who does, plus Republicans would certainly be abandoning any chance of winning NY-4. They won't win there without an incumbent D'Esposito on the ballot in my opinion.

It's more likely that either Jack Martins or one of the Republicans in the State Assembly (possibly John Mikulin) gets the nomination instead in this scenario. Indeed, it's likely that one of them would be the nominee in any special election.

If I were working with the House GOP, I’d advise Santos to agree not to run for re-election rather than resign mid-term. An open seat in a November election is a better bet for the GOP than a special election or running against a D incumbent.

Not sure if the prosecutors will accept that as part of a plea deal though.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1699069587508388030?s=20

Shouln’t Santos just try to run out the clock to the end of 2024 so he can complete his term.

I mean, I imagine he’s far more concerned with staying out of prison or at least doing as little time as possible than he is with NY-3 staying in Republican hands

I’ll believe Santos is gone when I see it. He’s too shameless to resign voluntarily and criminal cases like this take time to reach a conclusion.

It has nothing to do with shame.  Part of any plea deal is going to be that he immediately resigns; that’s just how this stuff works.  That’s really the only leverage he has here.  You’re looking at this as though his priority is helping Republicans keep NY-3 and that is fundamentally wrong.  At this point, his first, second, and third priority is to avoid going to prison or failing that, to go to prison for as little time as possible.  No one in his current situation is going to care whether NY-3 flips or not.  

I think he tries his hardest to stall the proceedings so he doesn’t have to resign any time soon. I mean the Chris Collins case took over a year before he resigned.

I don't think you're quite grasping the tradeoff for Santos.  There's a real cost to him for delaying.  If he takes the hypothetical plea deal, he gets a lighter punishment -- possibly no jail time at all -- but in return, he must resign in the very near future.  If he tries to stall and keeps pushing things out, then the government will likely withdraw the plea deal, and then he's facing trial, conviction, and a longer sentence.  Santos obviously knows what he's actually guilty of, and has a good idea how likely it is that he'll be convicted.  

The tradeoff is staying another year-plus in Congress (no more than that, as he will surely lose reelection) at the cost of a possibly long prison sentence vs a short one or none at all.  Which would you choose?

I think it’s in the party’s best interest to keep him around so that the seat doesn’t flip back to the Democrats in the special.

It’s not up to the Republican Party.  It’s up to Santos and right now I guarantee you he doesn’t give a flip about anything but what’s in his best interest.  It is in his best interest to resign soon and plead out rather than drag this out.  The Republican Party’s interests or what gives it the best chance of holding NY-3 are both completely irrelevant.  With all due respect, to suggest otherwise is simply wishcasting.

How would you rate the chances a Democrat wins back the seat before November 2024?

Almost certain in a special, barring a disaster nominee for the Democrats and a perfect Republican nominee. It's less likely the Democrats will pick the seat up (or hold it, assuming they win the special) in the 2024 general with Santos gone. His resignation helps them in that regard.

Helps who?

The Republicans.

There's a couple of reasons. The Democrats don't need NY-3 to make their majority in the House, they'll have a bunch of other targets, including in New York alone, and Santos not being on the ballot, plus likely facing a Democratic incumbent, with an attackable voting record in a swing district in what will be likely a neutral year in the House benefits Republicans (pending who their nominee is).

This is still a Biden+8 seat so it’ll be hard for Republicans to win.

If Democrats win the special do you think it’s possible Republicans get D’Esposito to run here instead?

I guess, but D'Esposito doesn't live in the district, and he'd be at risk of losing the primary to someone who does, plus Republicans would certainly be abandoning any chance of winning NY-4. They won't win there without an incumbent D'Esposito on the ballot in my opinion.

It's more likely that either Jack Martins or one of the Republicans in the State Assembly (possibly John Mikulin) gets the nomination instead in this scenario. Indeed, it's likely that one of them would be the nominee in any special election.

If I were working with the House GOP, I’d advise Santos to agree not to run for re-election rather than resign mid-term. An open seat in a November election is a better bet for the GOP than a special election or running against a D incumbent.

Not sure if the prosecutors will accept that as part of a plea deal though.

I think you're underestimating how strong a hypothetical Martins candidacy could potentially be.

If I were the House Republicans, however, I'd punt on the special and wait and see which Democrat wins it. It's certainly possible the winning Democrat will have an attackable record that can be used to pick the seat back up next fall, and the GOP's gains last year probably were not a mirage, so they have that going for them.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1699069587508388030?s=20

Shouln’t Santos just try to run out the clock to the end of 2024 so he can complete his term.

I mean, I imagine he’s far more concerned with staying out of prison or at least doing as little time as possible than he is with NY-3 staying in Republican hands

I’ll believe Santos is gone when I see it. He’s too shameless to resign voluntarily and criminal cases like this take time to reach a conclusion.

It has nothing to do with shame.  Part of any plea deal is going to be that he immediately resigns; that’s just how this stuff works.  That’s really the only leverage he has here.  You’re looking at this as though his priority is helping Republicans keep NY-3 and that is fundamentally wrong.  At this point, his first, second, and third priority is to avoid going to prison or failing that, to go to prison for as little time as possible.  No one in his current situation is going to care whether NY-3 flips or not.  

I think he tries his hardest to stall the proceedings so he doesn’t have to resign any time soon. I mean the Chris Collins case took over a year before he resigned.

I don't think you're quite grasping the tradeoff for Santos.  There's a real cost to him for delaying.  If he takes the hypothetical plea deal, he gets a lighter punishment -- possibly no jail time at all -- but in return, he must resign in the very near future.  If he tries to stall and keeps pushing things out, then the government will likely withdraw the plea deal, and then he's facing trial, conviction, and a longer sentence.  Santos obviously knows what he's actually guilty of, and has a good idea how likely it is that he'll be convicted.  

The tradeoff is staying another year-plus in Congress (no more than that, as he will surely lose reelection) at the cost of a possibly long prison sentence vs a short one or none at all.  Which would you choose?

I think it’s in the party’s best interest to keep him around so that the seat doesn’t flip back to the Democrats in the special.

It’s not up to the Republican Party.  It’s up to Santos and right now I guarantee you he doesn’t give a flip about anything but what’s in his best interest.  It is in his best interest to resign soon and plead out rather than drag this out.  The Republican Party’s interests or what gives it the best chance of holding NY-3 are both completely irrelevant.  With all due respect, to suggest otherwise is simply wishcasting.

How would you rate the chances a Democrat wins back the seat before November 2024?

Almost certain in a special, barring a disaster nominee for the Democrats and a perfect Republican nominee. It's less likely the Democrats will pick the seat up (or hold it, assuming they win the special) in the 2024 general with Santos gone. His resignation helps them in that regard.

Helps who?

The Republicans.

There's a couple of reasons. The Democrats don't need NY-3 to make their majority in the House, they'll have a bunch of other targets, including in New York alone, and Santos not being on the ballot, plus likely facing a Democratic incumbent, with an attackable voting record in a swing district in what will be likely a neutral year in the House benefits Republicans (pending who their nominee is).

This is still a Biden+8 seat so it’ll be hard for Republicans to win.

If Democrats win the special do you think it’s possible Republicans get D’Esposito to run here instead?

I guess, but D'Esposito doesn't live in the district, and he'd be at risk of losing the primary to someone who does, plus Republicans would certainly be abandoning any chance of winning NY-4. They won't win there without an incumbent D'Esposito on the ballot in my opinion.

It's more likely that either Jack Martins or one of the Republicans in the State Assembly (possibly John Mikulin) gets the nomination instead in this scenario. Indeed, it's likely that one of them would be the nominee in any special election.

If I were working with the House GOP, I’d advise Santos to agree not to run for re-election rather than resign mid-term. An open seat in a November election is a better bet for the GOP than a special election or running against a D incumbent.

Not sure if the prosecutors will accept that as part of a plea deal though.

I think you're underestimating how strong a hypothetical Martins candidacy could potentially be.

If I were the House Republicans, however, I'd punt on the special and wait and see which Democrat wins it. It's certainly possible the winning Democrat will have an attackable record that can be used to pick the seat back up next fall, and the GOP's gains last year probably were not a mirage, so they have that going for them.

Zeldin won’t be on the ballot again in 2024, instead Trump will likely be the nominee and it’s hard to see how he wins a district he lost by 8 in 2020.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1699069587508388030?s=20

Shouln’t Santos just try to run out the clock to the end of 2024 so he can complete his term.

I mean, I imagine he’s far more concerned with staying out of prison or at least doing as little time as possible than he is with NY-3 staying in Republican hands

I’ll believe Santos is gone when I see it. He’s too shameless to resign voluntarily and criminal cases like this take time to reach a conclusion.

It has nothing to do with shame.  Part of any plea deal is going to be that he immediately resigns; that’s just how this stuff works.  That’s really the only leverage he has here.  You’re looking at this as though his priority is helping Republicans keep NY-3 and that is fundamentally wrong.  At this point, his first, second, and third priority is to avoid going to prison or failing that, to go to prison for as little time as possible.  No one in his current situation is going to care whether NY-3 flips or not.  

I think he tries his hardest to stall the proceedings so he doesn’t have to resign any time soon. I mean the Chris Collins case took over a year before he resigned.

I don't think you're quite grasping the tradeoff for Santos.  There's a real cost to him for delaying.  If he takes the hypothetical plea deal, he gets a lighter punishment -- possibly no jail time at all -- but in return, he must resign in the very near future.  If he tries to stall and keeps pushing things out, then the government will likely withdraw the plea deal, and then he's facing trial, conviction, and a longer sentence.  Santos obviously knows what he's actually guilty of, and has a good idea how likely it is that he'll be convicted.  

The tradeoff is staying another year-plus in Congress (no more than that, as he will surely lose reelection) at the cost of a possibly long prison sentence vs a short one or none at all.  Which would you choose?

I think it’s in the party’s best interest to keep him around so that the seat doesn’t flip back to the Democrats in the special.

It’s not up to the Republican Party.  It’s up to Santos and right now I guarantee you he doesn’t give a flip about anything but what’s in his best interest.  It is in his best interest to resign soon and plead out rather than drag this out.  The Republican Party’s interests or what gives it the best chance of holding NY-3 are both completely irrelevant.  With all due respect, to suggest otherwise is simply wishcasting.

How would you rate the chances a Democrat wins back the seat before November 2024?

Almost certain in a special, barring a disaster nominee for the Democrats and a perfect Republican nominee. It's less likely the Democrats will pick the seat up (or hold it, assuming they win the special) in the 2024 general with Santos gone. His resignation helps them in that regard.

Helps who?

The Republicans.

There's a couple of reasons. The Democrats don't need NY-3 to make their majority in the House, they'll have a bunch of other targets, including in New York alone, and Santos not being on the ballot, plus likely facing a Democratic incumbent, with an attackable voting record in a swing district in what will be likely a neutral year in the House benefits Republicans (pending who their nominee is).

This is still a Biden+8 seat so it’ll be hard for Republicans to win.

If Democrats win the special do you think it’s possible Republicans get D’Esposito to run here instead?

I guess, but D'Esposito doesn't live in the district, and he'd be at risk of losing the primary to someone who does, plus Republicans would certainly be abandoning any chance of winning NY-4. They won't win there without an incumbent D'Esposito on the ballot in my opinion.

It's more likely that either Jack Martins or one of the Republicans in the State Assembly (possibly John Mikulin) gets the nomination instead in this scenario. Indeed, it's likely that one of them would be the nominee in any special election.

If I were working with the House GOP, I’d advise Santos to agree not to run for re-election rather than resign mid-term. An open seat in a November election is a better bet for the GOP than a special election or running against a D incumbent.

Not sure if the prosecutors will accept that as part of a plea deal though.

I think you're underestimating how strong a hypothetical Martins candidacy could potentially be.

If I were the House Republicans, however, I'd punt on the special and wait and see which Democrat wins it. It's certainly possible the winning Democrat will have an attackable record that can be used to pick the seat back up next fall, and the GOP's gains last year probably were not a mirage, so they have that going for them.

Zeldin won’t be on the ballot again in 2024, instead Trump will likely be the nominee and it’s hard to see how he wins a district he lost by 8 in 2020.

No, but the playbook Zeldin used will work for downballot Republicans (it won't for Trump).

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1699069587508388030?s=20

Shouln’t Santos just try to run out the clock to the end of 2024 so he can complete his term.

I mean, I imagine he’s far more concerned with staying out of prison or at least doing as little time as possible than he is with NY-3 staying in Republican hands

I’ll believe Santos is gone when I see it. He’s too shameless to resign voluntarily and criminal cases like this take time to reach a conclusion.

It has nothing to do with shame.  Part of any plea deal is going to be that he immediately resigns; that’s just how this stuff works.  That’s really the only leverage he has here.  You’re looking at this as though his priority is helping Republicans keep NY-3 and that is fundamentally wrong.  At this point, his first, second, and third priority is to avoid going to prison or failing that, to go to prison for as little time as possible.  No one in his current situation is going to care whether NY-3 flips or not.  

I think he tries his hardest to stall the proceedings so he doesn’t have to resign any time soon. I mean the Chris Collins case took over a year before he resigned.

I don't think you're quite grasping the tradeoff for Santos.  There's a real cost to him for delaying.  If he takes the hypothetical plea deal, he gets a lighter punishment -- possibly no jail time at all -- but in return, he must resign in the very near future.  If he tries to stall and keeps pushing things out, then the government will likely withdraw the plea deal, and then he's facing trial, conviction, and a longer sentence.  Santos obviously knows what he's actually guilty of, and has a good idea how likely it is that he'll be convicted.  

The tradeoff is staying another year-plus in Congress (no more than that, as he will surely lose reelection) at the cost of a possibly long prison sentence vs a short one or none at all.  Which would you choose?

I think it’s in the party’s best interest to keep him around so that the seat doesn’t flip back to the Democrats in the special.

It’s not up to the Republican Party.  It’s up to Santos and right now I guarantee you he doesn’t give a flip about anything but what’s in his best interest.  It is in his best interest to resign soon and plead out rather than drag this out.  The Republican Party’s interests or what gives it the best chance of holding NY-3 are both completely irrelevant.  With all due respect, to suggest otherwise is simply wishcasting.

How would you rate the chances a Democrat wins back the seat before November 2024?

Almost certain in a special, barring a disaster nominee for the Democrats and a perfect Republican nominee. It's less likely the Democrats will pick the seat up (or hold it, assuming they win the special) in the 2024 general with Santos gone. His resignation helps them in that regard.

Helps who?

The Republicans.

There's a couple of reasons. The Democrats don't need NY-3 to make their majority in the House, they'll have a bunch of other targets, including in New York alone, and Santos not being on the ballot, plus likely facing a Democratic incumbent, with an attackable voting record in a swing district in what will be likely a neutral year in the House benefits Republicans (pending who their nominee is).

This is still a Biden+8 seat so it’ll be hard for Republicans to win.

If Democrats win the special do you think it’s possible Republicans get D’Esposito to run here instead?

I guess, but D'Esposito doesn't live in the district, and he'd be at risk of losing the primary to someone who does, plus Republicans would certainly be abandoning any chance of winning NY-4. They won't win there without an incumbent D'Esposito on the ballot in my opinion.

It's more likely that either Jack Martins or one of the Republicans in the State Assembly (possibly John Mikulin) gets the nomination instead in this scenario. Indeed, it's likely that one of them would be the nominee in any special election.

If I were working with the House GOP, I’d advise Santos to agree not to run for re-election rather than resign mid-term. An open seat in a November election is a better bet for the GOP than a special election or running against a D incumbent.

Not sure if the prosecutors will accept that as part of a plea deal though.

I think you're underestimating how strong a hypothetical Martins candidacy could potentially be.

If I were the House Republicans, however, I'd punt on the special and wait and see which Democrat wins it. It's certainly possible the winning Democrat will have an attackable record that can be used to pick the seat back up next fall, and the GOP's gains last year probably were not a mirage, so they have that going for them.

Zeldin won’t be on the ballot again in 2024, instead Trump will likely be the nominee and it’s hard to see how he wins a district he lost by 8 in 2020.

No, but the playbook Zeldin used will work for downballot Republicans (it won't for Trump).

Definitely possible. It would be pretty rich for a potentially convicted criminal to be running on crime. Zeldin sucks, but he didn't have that baggage.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Most sane gay republican

[Ferguson97]

Holy crap people, learn to snip quotes during these long back and forths…

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/jamesd0wns/status/1710632232329551875

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Endorsing Santos. If we're going to have a Republican in this seat we might as well make it a funny one.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Gross, Anna Kaplan all the way.

[Pollster]

Suozzi upset many people with his silly gubernatorial run last cycle and indirectly put this seat up for the taking for Santos/the GOP - would expect that many former allies will not defer to him.

[President Johnson]

I'm not a huge fan of Suozzi, but he might be the Democrats' best chance to take the seat back, especially if Santos loses his primary. He's not as liberal as the mainstream of the caucus, but he's no Joe Manchin either.

[Spectator]

I'm not a huge fan of Suozzi, but he might be the Democrats' best chance to take the seat back, especially if Santos loses his primary. He's not as liberal as the mainstream of the caucus, but he's no Joe Manchin either.

If they *need* Suozzi to win back a Biden +10 seat after all the Santos drama that's happened, that's embarrassing. Any Democrat should beat any Republican in this seat next year.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I'm not a huge fan of Suozzi, but he might be the Democrats' best chance to take the seat back, especially if Santos loses his primary. He's not as liberal as the mainstream of the caucus, but he's no Joe Manchin either.

If they *need* Suozzi to win back a Biden +10 seat after all the Santos drama that's happened, that's embarrassing. Any Democrat should beat any Republican in this seat next year.

Not endorsing Suozzi, but I wouldn’t be so sure. This district is more likely to swing towards Trump than say NY 19 for example. Santos would obviously lose but I’m certain he won’t be the nominee

[Oryxslayer]

I'm not a huge fan of Suozzi, but he might be the Democrats' best chance to take the seat back, especially if Santos loses his primary. He's not as liberal as the mainstream of the caucus, but he's no Joe Manchin either.

If they *need* Suozzi to win back a Biden +10 seat after all the Santos drama that's happened, that's embarrassing. Any Democrat should beat any Republican in this seat next year.

And if it gets re-Mapped I would put money on the seats lean getting closer to Biden+16 through more Queens precincts and none of the very-GOP white ethnic southern Oyster Bay.

[Sir Mohamed]

I'm not a huge fan of Suozzi, but he might be the Democrats' best chance to take the seat back, especially if Santos loses his primary. He's not as liberal as the mainstream of the caucus, but he's no Joe Manchin either.

If they *need* Suozzi to win back a Biden +10 seat after all the Santos drama that's happened, that's embarrassing. Any Democrat should beat any Republican in this seat next year.

Not endorsing Suozzi, but I wouldn’t be so sure. This district is more likely to swing towards Trump than say NY 19 for example. Santos would obviously lose but I’m certain he won’t be the nominee

Agreed, though I would like to see whoelse runs for the Dems. I don't think Suozzi is needed to win, though he might the safest bet. That said, he's who got us there. He gave up the seat to run for gov, a race in which he never had chance. If he and Crist didn't make such huge misscalculations, the GOP "majority" might even be 2 seats smaller.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm not a huge fan of Suozzi, but he might be the Democrats' best chance to take the seat back, especially if Santos loses his primary. He's not as liberal as the mainstream of the caucus, but he's no Joe Manchin either.

If they *need* Suozzi to win back a Biden +10 seat after all the Santos drama that's happened, that's embarrassing. Any Democrat should beat any Republican in this seat next year.

Not endorsing Suozzi, but I wouldn’t be so sure. This district is more likely to swing towards Trump than say NY 19 for example. Santos would obviously lose but I’m certain he won’t be the nominee

Agreed, though I would like to see whoelse runs for the Dems. I don't think Suozzi is needed to win, though he might the safest bet. That said, he's who got us there. He gave up the seat to run for gov, a race in which he never had chance. If he and Crist didn't make such huge misscalculations, the GOP "majority" might even be 2 seats smaller.

Not just him and Crist; but maybe if Kind, Kirkpatrick, Levin, and Rice didn't retire they would have held their respective seats too. Some Democrats' assumption of a red wave really backfired on the party.

And then there's also the whole Jones-Maloney situation which might have also made a difference.

[Atlas Force]

It's official:

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot0001/status/1711785099514327313

[Oryxslayer]

Souizzi also released a public statement that his formal kickoff will be after the NY local elections in November.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/skrichev13/status/1711857987705315451?t=miV6IWDNDX8NSfgiic1I...

One wonders if the seat will be vacant or if we will have a late special.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/skrichev13/status/1711857987705315451?t=miV6IWDNDX8NSfgiic1I...

One wonders if the seat will be vacant or if we will have a late special.

Santos is not resigning.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RepDesposito/status/1712129095939539148