Scandal in the Wind 2023. George Santos gets Sashayed

[Progressive Pessimist]

I doubt he has the humility to resign. Also McCarthy probably would not allow it. NY-3 is stuck with this guy for two years. He is likelier to lose if he runs for re-election though...well, if the New York Democrats learn from this year he will (no guarantee of that).

[Progressive Pessimist]

Typical post-Trump GOP shamelessness. F*** this guy!

I guess one thing we do know about him is that he is now probably the worst freshman GOP congressman.

[Progressive Pessimist]

So, apparently Zimmerman did uncover a lot of this and tried to hit Santos with it, but the media refused to pick it up because they were more interested in puffing up a fictionalized crime wave *shrugs*.

Democratic turnout was so bad in New York this year that I don't even know if it would have mattered. This seems like the sort of thing that's a bigger deal now that he is actually elected and during a slower time for the news cycle.

[Progressive Pessimist]

This guy is making Trump seem like an Honest Business man

I mean, he probably did learn it from him.

[Progressive Pessimist]

This is beyond parody

Oh f*** off with this! I've used that joke before since my Jewish background is very secular, but my mom has a blatantly Jewish surname, so it's much less of a stretch.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Honestly, at this point, if he doesn't resign, Dems get to have a nice comedic punching bag for the next two years. Probably fine either way. Incredibly easy vector of attack on the House Majority. Make him the symbol of the House GOP. Spread this story and do "Congressman X votes with George Santos 98% of the time...what does he have to hide?"

That almost worked on someone as green and inoffensive as Pat Ryan in this year's election ads, so I'm all for it.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Who cares about this. Politicians (such as Kamala Harris) lie all the time.

I'm very curious what you thought about Obama's alleged birth certificate fraud.

[Progressive Pessimist]

The fact that he's lost basically the entire conference, the NY GOP, and other NY House members, I mean at this point.. how do you just not resign. I'm honestly surprised at how quickly even many GOPers coalesced against him.

You don't resign when you have even less shame than the average Republican somehow.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/EvanPlatinum/status/1613299176535920640

I wouldn't put it past him to steal the schtick from another famous George: George Costanza.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Here is my number one question about George Santos:  I could have uncovered his lies within 24 hours.  How is it that the Democratic opposition research did not uncover them during the course of the campaign.

They did uncover it but didn’t think it was that important *gestures angrily*

Apparently George Zimmerman, his Democratic opponent, did uncover a lot of this stuff and tried to bring it up during the campaign, but the NY media brushed it off.

Haha, sorry to be pedantic, but you mean Robert.

Yeah, it's some bulls*** that this was ignored. And to Zimmerman's credit you clearly can't blame him for trying to address this, no matter what other shortcomings and headwinds his campaign had.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/MarisaKabas/status/1615494258173034497?s=20&t=qfDGkFsMG9...

If this is true, this is the kind of scandal Jonah would face on Veep.

I wonder how Dr. Oz feels about this.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Siena New York (statewide) poll:

Should Santos resign?
59% yes
17% no

https://scri.siena.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/SNY0123-Crosstabs-SCRI.pdf

Funny thing is Democrats have the LEAST unfavorable view of Santos lol. I guess because they know how bad he makes the GOP look.

He is pretty much the newest relevant microcosm of what the party is and stands for.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1699069587508388030?s=20

Shouln’t Santos just try to run out the clock to the end of 2024 so he can complete his term.

I mean, I imagine he’s far more concerned with staying out of prison or at least doing as little time as possible than he is with NY-3 staying in Republican hands

I’ll believe Santos is gone when I see it. He’s too shameless to resign voluntarily and criminal cases like this take time to reach a conclusion.

It has nothing to do with shame.  Part of any plea deal is going to be that he immediately resigns; that’s just how this stuff works.  That’s really the only leverage he has here.  You’re looking at this as though his priority is helping Republicans keep NY-3 and that is fundamentally wrong.  At this point, his first, second, and third priority is to avoid going to prison or failing that, to go to prison for as little time as possible.  No one in his current situation is going to care whether NY-3 flips or not.  

I think he tries his hardest to stall the proceedings so he doesn’t have to resign any time soon. I mean the Chris Collins case took over a year before he resigned.

I don't think you're quite grasping the tradeoff for Santos.  There's a real cost to him for delaying.  If he takes the hypothetical plea deal, he gets a lighter punishment -- possibly no jail time at all -- but in return, he must resign in the very near future.  If he tries to stall and keeps pushing things out, then the government will likely withdraw the plea deal, and then he's facing trial, conviction, and a longer sentence.  Santos obviously knows what he's actually guilty of, and has a good idea how likely it is that he'll be convicted.  

The tradeoff is staying another year-plus in Congress (no more than that, as he will surely lose reelection) at the cost of a possibly long prison sentence vs a short one or none at all.  Which would you choose?

I think it’s in the party’s best interest to keep him around so that the seat doesn’t flip back to the Democrats in the special.

It’s not up to the Republican Party.  It’s up to Santos and right now I guarantee you he doesn’t give a flip about anything but what’s in his best interest.  It is in his best interest to resign soon and plead out rather than drag this out.  The Republican Party’s interests or what gives it the best chance of holding NY-3 are both completely irrelevant.  With all due respect, to suggest otherwise is simply wishcasting.

How would you rate the chances a Democrat wins back the seat before November 2024?

Almost certain in a special, barring a disaster nominee for the Democrats and a perfect Republican nominee. It's less likely the Democrats will pick the seat up (or hold it, assuming they win the special) in the 2024 general with Santos gone. His resignation helps them in that regard.

Helps who?

The Republicans.

There's a couple of reasons. The Democrats don't need NY-3 to make their majority in the House, they'll have a bunch of other targets, including in New York alone, and Santos not being on the ballot, plus likely facing a Democratic incumbent, with an attackable voting record in a swing district in what will be likely a neutral year in the House benefits Republicans (pending who their nominee is).

This is still a Biden+8 seat so it’ll be hard for Republicans to win.

If Democrats win the special do you think it’s possible Republicans get D’Esposito to run here instead?

I guess, but D'Esposito doesn't live in the district, and he'd be at risk of losing the primary to someone who does, plus Republicans would certainly be abandoning any chance of winning NY-4. They won't win there without an incumbent D'Esposito on the ballot in my opinion.

It's more likely that either Jack Martins or one of the Republicans in the State Assembly (possibly John Mikulin) gets the nomination instead in this scenario. Indeed, it's likely that one of them would be the nominee in any special election.

If I were working with the House GOP, I’d advise Santos to agree not to run for re-election rather than resign mid-term. An open seat in a November election is a better bet for the GOP than a special election or running against a D incumbent.

Not sure if the prosecutors will accept that as part of a plea deal though.

I think you're underestimating how strong a hypothetical Martins candidacy could potentially be.

If I were the House Republicans, however, I'd punt on the special and wait and see which Democrat wins it. It's certainly possible the winning Democrat will have an attackable record that can be used to pick the seat back up next fall, and the GOP's gains last year probably were not a mirage, so they have that going for them.

Zeldin won’t be on the ballot again in 2024, instead Trump will likely be the nominee and it’s hard to see how he wins a district he lost by 8 in 2020.

No, but the playbook Zeldin used will work for downballot Republicans (it won't for Trump).

Definitely possible. It would be pretty rich for a potentially convicted criminal to be running on crime. Zeldin sucks, but he didn't have that baggage.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm not a huge fan of Suozzi, but he might be the Democrats' best chance to take the seat back, especially if Santos loses his primary. He's not as liberal as the mainstream of the caucus, but he's no Joe Manchin either.

If they *need* Suozzi to win back a Biden +10 seat after all the Santos drama that's happened, that's embarrassing. Any Democrat should beat any Republican in this seat next year.

Not endorsing Suozzi, but I wouldn’t be so sure. This district is more likely to swing towards Trump than say NY 19 for example. Santos would obviously lose but I’m certain he won’t be the nominee

Agreed, though I would like to see whoelse runs for the Dems. I don't think Suozzi is needed to win, though he might the safest bet. That said, he's who got us there. He gave up the seat to run for gov, a race in which he never had chance. If he and Crist didn't make such huge misscalculations, the GOP "majority" might even be 2 seats smaller.

Not just him and Crist; but maybe if Kind, Kirkpatrick, Levin, and Rice didn't retire they would have held their respective seats too. Some Democrats' assumption of a red wave really backfired on the party.

And then there's also the whole Jones-Maloney situation which might have also made a difference.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/RepDesposito/status/1712129095939539148

As if things couldn't be messier for the House GOP.

I think it's become evident that McCarthy was protecting Santos all this time.

Now, without a Speaker, f*** it!

[Progressive Pessimist]

Does someone really need to be a convicted criminal to be expelled? Santos' entire life was a fabrication that deceived his constituents in ways few other representatives have had the audacity to do.

I think at the very least his constituents would want a new election as soon as possible.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Anyways, special starts out at Lean D.

No it's safe R because Long Island!

[Progressive Pessimist]

I wonder if they were also waiting for Maloy to win so that she’d essentially replace Santos rather than further shrinking their majority.

That would still be a net loss no matter what though.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Prediction: he's going to spill all the dirt he knows on other members.  Then he might or might not resign.

So which member of Congress did the Onlyfans belong to? I'd guess Nancy Mace but I don't think she's Santos's type. Maybe Madison Cawthorn if he still counts.

Interestingly Cawthorn was also very misleading about his life.

I think it's Martin Heinrich. Hell, I subscribe to his OnlyFans. The guy is an Adonis, even as he's starting to go grey. It just makes him more distinguished.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I would say that this ruined Santos' Christmas, but is it possible to be miserable during the holiday season when you're rolling in royalty checks as the writer of both the Charlie Brown Christmas special and Mariah Carey's "All I Want for Christmas is You?"

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/CityAndStateNY/status/1515061786415931397

Maybe we shouldn't withhold our votes from all Democrats, but we definitely should withhold our votes from him.

why he is 100% right

The problem is that he is lending credence to a completely made up issue.