Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

I think we need to take a moment to consider what a special election in any remotely competitive seat will look like in a House with a majority in the low single digits.

That also makes me realize, what's going to happen if a Representative is involved in a major scandal? Would there be pressure for them to resign even if it would mean flipping control?

what happens if there's a death/resignation and the House is 217-217? Does VP make it a majority? Is there any law covering that?

[Not Me, Us]

Hey everyone new user here. Been following Atlas for years now, but only signed up a few weeks ago, and haven't taken the time to post yet, mostly because I was scared that Tuesday was going to be a huge red wave.

Anyway this election turned out to be both better and more genuinely exciting then I expected to be, and that's great. Lets hope CCM can pull it off, it looks great.

Very cool how many new posters we seems to be getting lately. Welcome!

[Hope For A New Era]

This is the House picture according to WaPo. They don't have a favorite in WA-03 as for now, and by their estimates Reps are favored in 218 seats, while Dems are favored in 216 seats. If you believe WaPo's forecasts, the Democrats path to a majority in the House lies through winning WA-03 and one of AZ-01/AZ-06/CA-41

R ceiling = 220 (218 from WaPo + WA-03 and CA-27)
D realistic ceiling = 219 (the 216 WaPo has + WA-03, CA-41, AZ-01)
D absolute ceiling = 221 (the 219 above plus AZ-06 and CA-03)

This ignores the faint possibility of a Hail Mary win in NY-22 from those last ballots. The absolute-absolute-but-it-almost-certainly-won't-happen ceiling for Democrats is 222, but it's so unlikely it's not truly worth considering.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Hey everyone new user here. Been following Atlas for years now, but only signed up a few weeks ago, and haven't taken the time to post yet, mostly because I was scared that Tuesday was going to be a huge red wave.

Anyway this election turned out to be both better and more genuinely exciting then I expected to be, and that's great. Lets hope CCM can pull it off, it looks great.

Welcome, my friend!

Cookies and lemonade are on your left

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

[Biden 2024]

lmao who made this

[Torrain]

I think we need to take a moment to consider what a special election in any remotely competitive seat will look like in a House with a majority in the low single digits.

That also makes me realize, what's going to happen if a Representative is involved in a major scandal? Would there be pressure for them to resign even if it would mean flipping control?

what happens if there's a death/resignation and the House is 217-217? Does VP make it a majority? Is there any law covering that?

Best I can tell, VP has no role in the House - their role in the upper chamber is specifically tied to their constitutionallyy-mandated role as President of the Senate. As befits it's tone, the House just appears to be a free for all.

[pantsaregood]

Thoughts on AZ-6 and AZ-1 .. based on votes dropped past 24 hours? 

(and have your thoughts shifted in any way the past 24 hours?)

Not sure about AZ-1 … I would Tilt R.

AZ-6 is gone.

I want a 218-217 so bad - whatever the party.

I think NBC’s call is right on the money. If not 1 seat off either way (219-221)

I would be sincerely unsurprised if you had called VT-SEN lean R.

[South Dakota Democrat]

I think we need to take a moment to consider what a special election in any remotely competitive seat will look like in a House with a majority in the low single digits.

That also makes me realize, what's going to happen if a Representative is involved in a major scandal? Would there be pressure for them to resign even if it would mean flipping control?

what happens if there's a death/resignation and the House is 217-217? Does VP make it a majority? Is there any law covering that?

Not sure, but VP definitely does not make it a majority.

[Ferguson97]

This ignores the faint possibility of a Hail Mary win in NY-22 from those last ballots. The absolute-absolute-but-it-almost-certainly-won't-happen ceiling for Democrats is 222, but it's so unlikely it's not truly worth considering.

It would be enormously funny if the Democrats somehow got to 222, which is literally the exact majority they have now.

Also this happened on an episode of The West Wing

[Crumpets]

I think we need to take a moment to consider what a special election in any remotely competitive seat will look like in a House with a majority in the low single digits.

There will probably be significant pressure from House leadership on reps not to resign or die.

Pelosi: "We are extremely disappointed this morning to learn of the reckless and irresponsible death of our colleague Bill Pascrell, who passed away peacefully and with no regard for our House caucus at his home last night. We wish his family well, although as per our notice of January 3, 2023, they will not receive any government benefits following his death, and Rep. Pascrell will not be eligible for burial in the Congressional Cemetery following this dereliction of his duty."

[Oryxslayer]

I think we need to take a moment to consider what a special election in any remotely competitive seat will look like in a House with a majority in the low single digits.

I have had three scenarios mulling over in my head, cause straight line partisanship seems likely to doom this upcoming House to procedural changes in control, no matter the precise outcome.

1) Someone flips into the majority to give it breathing room. There's a handful of people in both caucuses who could pull it off.

2) IDC or Alaska V2.0. Some group of legislators agrees to give what in parliamentary systems is called 'confidence and support' in exchange for the choice committee chairs. Of course they are likely to face the same fate and lose in primaries. Also the GOP seemingly would have a harder time doing this cause they are already trying to divide up the legislative spoils, so accommodation would anger their caucus.

3) "Caucus of Power." A group of legislators from both sides get together and tell the partisans that anything they want requires them. Probably led by the machine pols from the mid-Atlantic. Play one group of 210ish against the other. Put their own candidate in the speakers chair, take the committee chairs, and and generally try to run the chamber similar to an Italian-style technocratic 'don't rock the boat' government.

[Pres Mike]

Kudos to NY. Seems like they counted a lot faster than 2020 which is one less thing to worry about. In 2020, NY was one of the worst offenders

New York and Pennsylvania got their act together. Nevada, Arizona and California can’t do anything right

(Although I appreciate the western states voting democrat. They are just incompetent when it comes to counting the votes)

I seriously don’t understand why they can’t count votes 24/7. Why didn’t they hire more election workers

[zitronoise]

I think we need to take a moment to consider what a special election in any remotely competitive seat will look like in a House with a majority in the low single digits.

There will probably be significant pressure from House leadership on reps not to resign or die.

Pelosi: "We are extremely disappointed this morning to learn of the reckless and irresponsible death of our colleague Bill Pascrell, who passed away peacefully and with no regard for our House caucus at his home last night. We wish his family well, although as per our notice of January 3, 2023, they will not receive any government benefits following his death, and Rep. Pascrell will not be eligible for burial in the Congressional Cemetery following this dereliction of his duty."

I like that this post indirectly implies the Democrats keeping the house

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I think we need to take a moment to consider what a special election in any remotely competitive seat will look like in a House with a majority in the low single digits.

That also makes me realize, what's going to happen if a Representative is involved in a major scandal? Would there be pressure for them to resign even if it would mean flipping control?

what happens if there's a death/resignation and the House is 217-217? Does VP make it a majority? Is there any law covering that?

I believe that the closest we've had was a 218R-216D House in 1930 with 1 Farmer-Labor member who presumably caucused with the Democrats.

Even crazier, between election day and the convening of Congress, fourteen member-elects died (including the Speaker).  Three special elections shifted the balance of the House 219-212 (EDIT: In favor of the Democrats) by the time the next Congress reported for duty, averting the scenario you described.  

And that, kiddos, is how the Democratic House Dynasty began from 1931-1995. 

IOW, I have no idea what happens if neither party has a majority

[Agafin]

I think someone was asking about this earlier.  Here's Cook's National House Vote Tracker: https://www.cookpolitical.com/charts/house-charts/national-house-vote-tracker/2022.  At this moment, it has:

R: 51,415,367 (52.1%)
D: 45,846,105 (46.4%)

Total: 98,768,888 
Margin: R+5.7%

Woah, so for all the talk of GOP gerrymandering, republicans are still going to underperform relative to their number of seats. The tipping point seat will be to the left of the PV for the first time since... 2004 maybe? I really don't know.

[John Dule]

I think someone was asking about this earlier.  Here's Cook's National House Vote Tracker: https://www.cookpolitical.com/charts/house-charts/national-house-vote-tracker/2022.  At this moment, it has:

R: 51,415,367 (52.1%)
D: 45,846,105 (46.4%)

Total: 98,768,888 
Margin: R+5.7%

Woah, so for all the talk of GOP gerrymandering, republicans are still going to underperform relative to their number of seats. The tipping point seat will be to the left of the PV for the first time since... 2004 maybe? I really don't know.

A lot of the GOP seats had either R candidates running uncontested or R candidates running against independents or libertarians, hence the lower D popular vote overall.

[Torrain]

I have had three scenarios mulling over in my head, cause straight line partisanship seems likely to doom this upcoming House to procedural changes in control, no matter the precise outcome.

1) Someone flips into the majority to give it breathing room. There's a handful of people in both caucuses who could pull it off.

2) IDC or Alaska V2.0. Some group of legislators agrees to give what in parliamentary systems is called 'confidence and support' in exchange for the choice committee chairs. Of course they are likely to face the same fate and lose in primaries. Also the GOP seemingly would have a harder time doing this cause they are already trying to divide up the legislative spoils, so accommodation would anger their caucus.

3) "Caucus of Power." A group of legislators from both sides get together and tell the partisans that anything they want requires them. Probably led by the machine pols from the mid-Atlantic. Play one group of 210ish against the other. Put their own candidate in the speakers chair, take the committee chairs, and and generally try to run the chamber similar to an Italian-style technocratic 'don't rock the boat' government.

Some kind of confidence and supply agreement would be fascinating, but I assume heads would explode on one side of the aisle, as members break party loyalty in an otherwise hyperpolarised, hyper-partisan environment.

_{Y'all need some Ulster Unionists (or equivalent) who agree to pass budgets, no questions asked, in exchange for some local money. Only mostly joking - that's how we *always* resolve disputes like this over here.}

[Holmes]

I think someone was asking about this earlier.  Here's Cook's National House Vote Tracker: https://www.cookpolitical.com/charts/house-charts/national-house-vote-tracker/2022.  At this moment, it has:

R: 51,415,367 (52.1%)
D: 45,846,105 (46.4%)

Total: 98,768,888 
Margin: R+5.7%

Woah, so for all the talk of GOP gerrymandering, republicans are still going to underperform relative to their number of seats. The tipping point seat will be to the left of the PV for the first time since... 2004 maybe? I really don't know.

Yup, looks like it. Imagine how disastrous this would’ve been if it were a Trump midterm? Dems also pick up NC, WI and probably OH along with probably 40+ House seats. They’re lucky he did lose in 2020.

[Crumpets]

I think we need to take a moment to consider what a special election in any remotely competitive seat will look like in a House with a majority in the low single digits.

I have had three scenarios mulling over in my head, cause straight line partisanship seems likely to doom this upcoming House to procedural changes in control, no matter the precise outcome.

1) Someone flips into the majority to give it breathing room. There's a handful of people in both caucuses who could pull it off.

2) IDC or Alaska V2.0. Some group of legislators agrees to give what in parliamentary systems is called 'confidence and support' in exchange for the choice committee chairs. Of course they are likely to face the same fate and lose in primaries. Also the GOP seemingly would have a harder time doing this cause they are already trying to divide up the legislative spoils, so accommodation would anger their caucus.

3) "Caucus of Power." A group of legislators from both sides get together and tell the partisans that anything they want requires them. Probably led by the machine pols from the mid-Atlantic. Play one group of 210ish against the other. Put their own candidate in the speakers chair, take the committee chairs, and and generally try to run the chamber similar to an Italian-style technocratic 'don't rock the boat' government.

I think all of these are shockingly realistic, especially if we're looking at a <220 seat majority. A fourth option I'd add is an "appeal to the outside" scenario, where the majority party realizes it wouldn't be able to function, but also doesn't want to just collapse in on itself or hand power over. So, they commission a group like the one in your third scenario, or like the "Gang of Eight" to find some non-partisan outsider to become Speaker and try to manage things with the basic objective of making sure the House can do its most basic functions while limiting the damage/culpability for both parties. Would it work? Probably not. But it's something I can imagine a one-seat-majority party leader giving a shot.

[Mr.Phips]

I think someone was asking about this earlier.  Here's Cook's National House Vote Tracker: https://www.cookpolitical.com/charts/house-charts/national-house-vote-tracker/2022.  At this moment, it has:

R: 51,415,367 (52.1%)
D: 45,846,105 (46.4%)

Total: 98,768,888 
Margin: R+5.7%

Woah, so for all the talk of GOP gerrymandering, republicans are still going to underperform relative to their number of seats. The tipping point seat will be to the left of the PV for the first time since... 2004 maybe? I really don't know.

Yup, looks like it. Imagine how disastrous this would’ve been if it were a Trump midterm? Dems also pick up NC, WI and probably OH along with probably 40+ House seats. They’re lucky he did lose in 2020.

I don’t think the House would have been that big of a swing given how redistricting created so many safe seats.  Maybe more like 20-25.

[Kabam]

All not yet called races by CNN (and my very unprofessional ratings):

Dems need 20/26

Likely D - 10
AK-AL
AZ-04
CO-08
MD-06
ME-02
NM-02
NV-03
CA-06
CA-21
CA-26

Lean D - 2
WA-08
OR-06

Toss-Up - 1
AZ-01

Competitive California Seats - 9
CA-03
CA-09
CA-13
CA-22
CA-27
CA-41
CA-45
CA-47
CA-49

Lean R - 2
AZ-06
OR-05

Likely R - 2
CO-03
NY-22

I have no clue, what's left in California, so idk what to think about these, since there is not a lot counted yet. But Ds can only lose two of those races, if my other rankings are not wrong, of course.

[Ferguson97]

I think we need to take a moment to consider what a special election in any remotely competitive seat will look like in a House with a majority in the low single digits.

There will probably be significant pressure from House leadership on reps not to resign or die.

[Pollster]

Am I wrong the think there is a very real path for Democrats to take the Arizona State Senate? Numbers look like it but I'm unfamiliar with the map.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Took a quick walk over to Twitter and foolishly decided to type in "voter fraud". 

That was a mistake.