Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[wbrocks67]

My guess is that the 172K consists of the 60K pre-election day votes to be counted + 112K of the election day drop-offs. Not quite as good of a sign for Hobbs if it was all election day drop-offs, but still pretty good.

Depends, but he did say it was 'early vote drop-offs' so makes me think it's part of the 275K. But we'll see.

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/Conrad_Swanson/status/1590803975326306304

Oh no who could have seen this coming.

[Ferguson97]

Oh no who could have seen this coming.

Come on man, I just took you off ignore

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Thorongil16/status/1590805345748029440?s=20&t=sE66V2sKgf...

https://twitter.com/GalenMetzger1/status/1590805416048721921?s=20&t=sE66V2sK...

Status on Boebert. Also, things get worse for her depending on if the newly revealed uncounted votes in Aspen are numerically statistically significant compared to Pueblo.

EDIT: https://twitter.com/Thorongil16/status/1590806223766818816?s=20&t=sE66V2sKgf...

We gonna go back towards the blue!

[John Dule]

Can someone who is optimistic about CA-03 please explain why? Placer County voted R by 7 points in 2020 and the district's D counties (Inyo, Mono, etc) are not nearly as populous.

[Spectator]

Can someone who is optimistic about CA-03 please explain why? Placer County voted R by 7 points in 2020 and the district's D counties (Inyo, Mono, etc) are not nearly as populous.

White liberal heavy seat. The part of Placer County in that seat is the D parts. I don’t think it flips this year but probably will later in the decade.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Regarding AZ-GOV, just a reminder that the state's recount law was changed this year to perform an automatic recount if the margin is less than 0.5%.  Previously it had an absurdly small threshold (200 votes, IIRC).

[John Dule]

Can someone who is optimistic about CA-03 please explain why? Placer County voted R by 7 points in 2020 and the district's D counties (Inyo, Mono, etc) are not nearly as populous.

White liberal heavy seat. The part of Placer County in that seat is the D parts. I don’t think it flips this year but probably will later in the decade.

It encompasses all of Placer County.

[Tintrlvr]

Can someone who is optimistic about CA-03 please explain why? Placer County voted R by 7 points in 2020 and the district's D counties (Inyo, Mono, etc) are not nearly as populous.

White liberal heavy seat. The part of Placer County in that seat is the D parts. I don’t think it flips this year but probably will later in the decade.

Doesn't the seat include all of Placer?

Anyway, I think people are optimistic because of the expectation that the late mail vote would favor the Democrats. It's not a seat I'd expect to flip, but current results at least suggest it could flip.

On the other hand, I'm guessing it like CA-41 until a little while ago had not yet counted at least some of its election day vote, as it has very few votes reporting.

[Hammy]

https://twitter.com/Conrad_Swanson/status/1590803975326306304

Oh no who could have seen this coming.

You also saw a GOP wave bigger than 2014 coming.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/Conrad_Swanson/status/1590803975326306304

Oh no who could have seen this coming.

Depends where it's from, though

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/Conrad_Swanson/status/1590803975326306304

Oh no who could have seen this coming.

Depends where it's from, though

ah, looks like in-person. we're still in this!

[Spectator]

Can someone who is optimistic about CA-03 please explain why? Placer County voted R by 7 points in 2020 and the district's D counties (Inyo, Mono, etc) are not nearly as populous.

White liberal heavy seat. The part of Placer County in that seat is the D parts. I don’t think it flips this year but probably will later in the decade.

It encompasses all of Placer County.

My bad, the D parts of El Dorado near Tahoe was what I confused it with.

[It’s so Joever]

Can someone who is optimistic about CA-03 please explain why? Placer County voted R by 7 points in 2020 and the district's D counties (Inyo, Mono, etc) are not nearly as populous.

White liberal heavy seat. The part of Placer County in that seat is the D parts. I don’t think it flips this year but probably will later in the decade.

It encompasses all of Placer County.

Placer County has some suburbs for Ds to improve upon iirc. Maybe that is where some of the optimism lies?

[President Johnson]

This CO-03 stuff almost gets me Florida 2000 vibes.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Conrad_Swanson/status/1590803975326306304

Oh no who could have seen this coming.

You also saw a GOP wave bigger than 2014 coming.

He'll get a few right due to random luck and think it makes him a brilliant forecaster.  There's an old country saying: even a blind squirrel finds an acorn now and then.

[wbrocks67]

Apparently there's some drama and confusion surrounding the number of uncounted ballots in Clark County. Their spokesperson said 50k but that's much smaller than what people thought they had. Tough to know how to interpret that, and no recent updates from Washoe.

Also depends on what is left - that John guy from Twitter reported that big batch early this AM, but it sounds like that still needs to be entered into the system, so it may be separate from an *additional* 50K needed to be counted?

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/galenmetzger1/status/1590806451072962560

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/tcani/status/1590799685375389696

[wbrocks67]

Thank god that PA is not close. Philly is still being Philly. Still 20k VBMs to count and possibly as much as 30-40K in-person votes from election day. Still 28 city divisions who have not reported *election day* votes.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/Conrad_Swanson/status/1590803975326306304

Oh no who could have seen this coming.

You also saw a GOP wave bigger than 2014 coming.

He'll get a few right due to random luck and think it makes him a brilliant forecaster.  There's an old country saying: even a blind squirrel finds an acorn now and then.

I think he's closer to the nut than the squirrel

[Atlas Force]

The number of pages in this thread is now the same as the number of votes needed to win the Electoral College.

[new_patomic]

So what does Frisch need from the remaining Pueblo mail ballots?

~58 percent?

[Oryxslayer]

Can someone who is optimistic about CA-03 please explain why? Placer County voted R by 7 points in 2020 and the district's D counties (Inyo, Mono, etc) are not nearly as populous.

To preface everything, its probably one of the last, maybe the last seat that would go Dem of the 10 California marginals.

Basically, it comes down to mail vote. California does look very, vey, likely to blue-shift like 2018 not red-shift like in 2020 with the mail, given primary precedent. This is seemingly visible with most of the rural red counties projected close to done - cause people went in person - whereas the suburbs still have votes.

You can also basically ignore all counties except the El Dorado portion - which is bluer, the populous red side is near Sacramento and carved out, Placer, Sacramento, and Nevada. The others are tiny and will be overall GOP-leaning but will add few votes. Frankly, they distort the true picture of this seat's geographic base.

In the big counties the mail is out. Its a question of if the mail will be so dem-favoring to shift things seriously rather than marginally. And that is an open question.

[Ferguson97]

This could literally come down to a coin toss...