Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[Eraserhead]

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1590776492719747072

At least Ryan won. He was the only one who ran a serious and good down to earth campaign. He should have this seat for a bit if he wants it

I'll take Pat Ryan over Sean Patrick Baloney any day of the week.

[xavier110]

The slow votes in Arizona and Nevada may have obfuscated this so far, but there's pretty strong evidence emerging of Democratic strength/overperformance in these Mountain metros. I.e. I think Kelly is going to win Maricopa by more than he did in 2020, and I think CCM will probably do better than Biden in Washoe.

Yes. Kelly is going to outrun his 2020 statewide performance on the strength of the Phoenix and Tucson metros.

[John Dule]

NYT has the Dems at 191 and Rs at 209. I'm trying to characterize the rest of the seats as best as I can. This is just a rough extrapolation, so please don't quote this post mocking me if any of this doesn't pan out. I'm trying to predict just based on our current information.

Right now, I would characterize an additional 13 seats as "more likely D than R."

1. ME-02
2. CO-08
3. WA-08
4. WA-03
5. NV-01
6. OR-04
7. CA-06
8. CA-09
9. CA-21
10. CA-26
11. CA-35
12. CA-38
13. AK-AL

I would also characterize six seats as "more likely R than D."

1. CA-22
2. CA-27
3. CA-45
4. CA-40
5. AZ-06
6. AZ-02

There are another ten seats that I would call "tossups," but Democrats lead in them.

1. NY-18
2. NV-03
3. NV-04
4. OR-06
5. CA-41
6. CA-46
7. CA-47
8. CA-49
9. AZ-04
10. AZ-01

And finally, six seats that I would call "tossups," but Republicans lead in them.

1. MD-06
2. CO-03
3. CA-13
4. NY-22
5. OR-05
6. CA-03

Factoring in my "more likely" characterizations, right now I have the Dems at 204 and the Republicans at 215. The Republicans will hit 221 if they hold those six tossup seats they currently lead in, but numerous people on this site have suggested that most (if not all) of those six could very easily swing Dem.

A D house would require the Democrats to win all ten of their tossups, plus four of the Republican tossups. That would put them at exactly 218.

[SCNCmod]

Thoughts on next step for Dem Senate candidates who had competitive loses..

- Cheri Beasley ...could run for Governor in 2 years... or take a position in Biden Admin then run for Tillis seat in 4 years (I think Beasley & Jeff Jackson will be the noms for Senate '26 & Gov '24 (Since Jackson became a congressman on Tues, it prob makes most sense that He is the Senate '26 candidate/ and Beasley the next Gov nominee)

- Mandela Barnes ...could take a post in the Biden Admin.. as a holdover to run for Gov in 4yrs?  He could also run for Congress in 2 yrs to stay relevant until he makes next move).

- Tim Ryan ... I see him wanting to run for Gov in 4 years.


Others:
Beto & Abrams... after 2 elections, both have large political organizations. So they will prob Build on those in some capacity- and if in 4-6 years, the political leanings of GA & TX experience meaningful shift to Dems- then go for Gov (Abrams)/ Sen or Gov (Beto... although if there is a shift to Dems the next 4 years- there would have to be some coordination with Rep Castro & Wendy Davis).

Demmings ... Either Biden Admin.. or run for a Close R house seat in 2024.

Is there a reason Stein wouldn’t run for Governor and Cooper for Senate in 2026? Cooper seemed to leave the door open to it a few months ago.

I think Jeff Jackson would blow Stein out if the water in the Primary. (Beasley would also). If Cooper runs- all 3 would definitely defer to him and not run.

But my strong suspicion is that Cooper will run for Dem Presidential Nominee / and if he doesn't get it, he will be in the cabinet if Dem wins. (Regardless what Biden currently says- He will not run... for 2 reasons... 1) I think Jill Biden will strongly urge him not to... 2) He's Politically aware enough to know there is a very good chance he will have challengers & a high probability he would lose the primary.  (I think the top 3 likely serious contenders are 1) Buttigieg ... 2)KY Gov Beshear- who is the most popular Dem Gov in the country currently...despite being in a red state) ... 3) Cooper

Biden is not gonna not run again after this midterm. Especially not if he keeps the dang House.

It really doesn't matter if he decides to run- I feel pretty confident he will not win the Primary... (this is also the real risk that will eventually lead him to decide not to run.)

[😥]

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1590784095420051456?t=ARxEe-PdgERidtQDq...

Agree here. I actually think based on this data Hodge is very slightly favored

[xavier110]

NYT has the Dems at 191 and Rs at 209. I'm trying to characterize the rest of the seats as best as I can. This is just a rough extrapolation, so please don't quote this post mocking me if any of this doesn't pan out. I'm trying to predict just based on our current information.

Right now, I would characterize an additional 13 seats as "more likely D than R."

1. ME-02
2. CO-08
3. WA-08
4. WA-03
5. NV-01
6. OR-04
7. CA-06
8. CA-09
9. CA-21
10. CA-26
11. CA-35
12. CA-38
13. AK-AL

I would also characterize six seats as "more likely R than D."

1. CA-22
2. CA-27
3. CA-45
4. CA-40
5. AZ-06
6. AZ-02

There are another ten seats that I would call "tossups," but Democrats lead in them.

1. NY-18
2. NV-03
3. NV-04
4. OR-06
5. CA-41
6. CA-46
7. CA-47
8. CA-49
9. AZ-04
10. AZ-01

And finally, six seats that I would call "tossups," but Republicans lead in them.

1. MD-06
2. CO-03
3. CA-13
4. NY-22
5. OR-05
6. CA-03

Factoring in my "more likely" characterizations, right now I have the Dems at 204 and the Republicans at 215. The Republicans will hit 221 if they hold those six tossup seats they currently lead in, but numerous people on this site have suggested that most (if not all) of those six could very easily swing Dem.

#9…AZ-04 is not a toss up. Stanton leads by 15 points. He will win

[7,052,770]

Isn't MD-6 a very Likely D?

[😥]

Thoughts on next step for Dem Senate candidates who had competitive loses..

- Cheri Beasley ...could run for Governor in 2 years... or take a position in Biden Admin then run for Tillis seat in 4 years (I think Beasley & Jeff Jackson will be the noms for Senate '26 & Gov '24 (Since Jackson became a congressman on Tues, it prob makes most sense that He is the Senate '26 candidate/ and Beasley the next Gov nominee)

- Mandela Barnes ...could take a post in the Biden Admin.. as a holdover to run for Gov in 4yrs?  He could also run for Congress in 2 yrs to stay relevant until he makes next move).

- Tim Ryan ... I see him wanting to run for Gov in 4 years.


Others:
Beto & Abrams... after 2 elections, both have large political organizations. So they will prob Build on those in some capacity- and if in 4-6 years, the political leanings of GA & TX experience meaningful shift to Dems- then go for Gov (Abrams)/ Sen or Gov (Beto... although if there is a shift to Dems the next 4 years- there would have to be some coordination with Rep Castro & Wendy Davis).

Demmings ... Either Biden Admin.. or run for a Close R house seat in 2024.

Is there a reason Stein wouldn’t run for Governor and Cooper for Senate in 2026? Cooper seemed to leave the door open to it a few months ago.

I think Jeff Jackson would blow Stein out if the water in the Primary. (Beasley would also). If Cooper runs- all 3 would definitely defer to him and not run.

But my strong suspicion is that Cooper will run for Dem Presidential Nominee / and if he doesn't get it, he will be in the cabinet if Dem wins. (Regardless what Biden currently says- He will not run... for 2 reasons... 1) I think Jill Biden will strongly urge him not to... 2) He's Politically aware enough to know there is a very good chance he will have challengers & a high probability he would lose the primary.  (I think the top 3 likely serious contenders are 1) Buttigieg ... 2)KY Gov Beshear- who is the most popular Dem Gov in the country currently...despite being in a red state) ... 3) Cooper

Biden is not gonna not run again after this midterm. Especially not if he keeps the dang House.

It really doesn't matter if he decides to run- I feel pretty confident he will not win the Primary... (this is also the real risk that will eventually lead him to decide not to run.)

Well, Biden will win primary very easily if he decides to run (very, very likely). He is effective leader for Democrats, relatively popular with base and relatively unpolarizating figure. There is no reason for him not to run (except health issues), and there is no reason for the base to reject him

[GeorgiaModerate]

Seems like a pretty notable underperformance for Walker there

https://twitter.com/jonathancasasga/status/1590738950129582080

This is my district after redistricting!  Previously Forsyth County was in the 9th, represented by the awful Andrew Clyde. 

McCormick was Carolyn Bourdeaux's opponent in the old 7th in 2020.  When the new map made the 7th more D and the 6th more R, he moved over here to run -- the reverse of Lucy McBath switching from the 6th to the 7th.  He seems fairly conservative but not a MAGA type, which is a pretty good fit for the current makeup of the district.  He won Forsyth 71-29, compared to Kemp's 72-27 and Walker's 65-32.

[John Dule]

#9…AZ-04 is not a toss up. Stanton leads by 15 points. He will win

Mischaracterization on my part. Ds at 205.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Isn't MD-6 a very Likely D?

Unless the remaining number of ballots is inaccurate, it’s virtually guaranteed Montgomery closes a 4K vote gap

[Oryxslayer]

Isn't MD-6 a very Likely D?

Yes. No mail from the big counties, should be coming later today apparently(?). Same with most of the state really.

[Spectator]

Thoughts on next step for Dem Senate candidates who had competitive loses..

- Cheri Beasley ...could run for Governor in 2 years... or take a position in Biden Admin then run for Tillis seat in 4 years (I think Beasley & Jeff Jackson will be the noms for Senate '26 & Gov '24 (Since Jackson became a congressman on Tues, it prob makes most sense that He is the Senate '26 candidate/ and Beasley the next Gov nominee)

- Mandela Barnes ...could take a post in the Biden Admin.. as a holdover to run for Gov in 4yrs?  He could also run for Congress in 2 yrs to stay relevant until he makes next move).

- Tim Ryan ... I see him wanting to run for Gov in 4 years.


Others:
Beto & Abrams... after 2 elections, both have large political organizations. So they will prob Build on those in some capacity- and if in 4-6 years, the political leanings of GA & TX experience meaningful shift to Dems- then go for Gov (Abrams)/ Sen or Gov (Beto... although if there is a shift to Dems the next 4 years- there would have to be some coordination with Rep Castro & Wendy Davis).

Demmings ... Either Biden Admin.. or run for a Close R house seat in 2024.

Is there a reason Stein wouldn’t run for Governor and Cooper for Senate in 2026? Cooper seemed to leave the door open to it a few months ago.

I think Jeff Jackson would blow Stein out if the water in the Primary. (Beasley would also). If Cooper runs- all 3 would definitely defer to him and not run.

But my strong suspicion is that Cooper will run for Dem Presidential Nominee / and if he doesn't get it, he will be in the cabinet if Dem wins. (Regardless what Biden currently says- He will not run... for 2 reasons... 1) I think Jill Biden will strongly urge him not to... 2) He's Politically aware enough to know there is a very good chance he will have challengers & a high probability he would lose the primary.  (I think the top 3 likely serious contenders are 1) Buttigieg ... 2)KY Gov Beshear- who is the most popular Dem Gov in the country currently...despite being in a red state) ... 3) Cooper

Biden is not gonna not run again after this midterm. Especially not if he keeps the dang House.

It really doesn't matter if he decides to run- I feel pretty confident he will not win the Primary... (this is also the real risk that will eventually lead him to decide not to run.)

Well, Biden will win primary very easily if he decides to run (very, very likely). He is effective leader for Democrats, relatively popular with base and relatively unpolarizating figure. There is no reason for him not to run (except health issues), and there is no reason for the base to reject him

I’m probably going to regret asking this, but what is the logical argument for Biden not winning his primary? Especially after these results?

[John Dule]

Isn't MD-6 a very Likely D?

The Republican currently leads in it, which is why I characterized it as a "current R lead" in a tossup seat. I do personally think the Democrat will win there, as well as in CA-13, another "current R lead."

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I feel like the real playing field right now is basically CO-03, OR-05, and about a half dozen CA seats where we have no idea what’s going on.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Is caravero truly safe? The district has narrowed and apparently only 90% is in. I could be missing something though.

[Pres Mike]

When everything is said and done, there should really be an investigation on why some states take so long to count the vote. It’s dangerous for democracy yet easily fixable.

[Gass3268]

Just your totally normal ignoring of a court order going on in rural AZ.

https://twitter.com/JenAFifield/status/1590765217017135106?s=20&t=s2teK_ucOi...

[soundchaser]

When everything is said and done, there should really be an investigation on why some states take so long to count the vote. It’s dangerous for democracy yet easily fixable.

No investigation needed - in some states, the way mail-in voting occurs means it takes ages to count. We know how to fix things, but (mostly) Republican state legislatures won't let it happen.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Biden is not gonna not run again after this midterm. Especially not if he keeps the dang House.

It really doesn't matter if he decides to run- I feel pretty confident he will not win the Primary... (this is also the real risk that will eventually lead him to decide not to run.)

Well, Biden will win primary very easily if he decides to run (very, very likely). He is effective leader for Democrats, relatively popular with base and relatively unpolarizating figure. There is no reason for him not to run (except health issues), and there is no reason for the base to reject him

I’m probably going to regret asking this, but what is the logical argument for Biden not winning his primary? Especially after these results?

These results aren't a referendum on Biden, they're a rejection of the GOP. Dems are winning left-leaning young voters in spite of their/our disapproval of Scranton Joe. I'm not saying this because I'm a Kamala hack btw, I think her electability problems are shared among most if not all nationally prominent Dems.

[Oryxslayer]

Also, Update on Riverside and CA-41 from locals:

https://twitter.com/AlexHilke/status/1590766846781063168?s=20&t=sE66V2sKgfdP...

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Is there an estimate to the number of absentee ballots out in NY-22?

[Person Man]

Just your totally normal ignoring of a court order going on in rural AZ.

https://twitter.com/JenAFifield/status/1590765217017135106?s=20&t=s2teK_ucOi...

Oh, it’s ADHD, I’m sure.

[Tintrlvr]

Also, Update on Riverside and CA-41 from locals:

https://twitter.com/AlexHilke/status/1590766846781063168?s=20&t=sE66V2sKgfdP...

This is actually great news for the Democrats, though, because election day ballots are going to be by far the most Republican, and Calvert is only barely ahead. So there's a very good chance the remaining ballots will favor Rollins.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Is there an estimate to the number of absentee ballots out in NY-22?

8k in Onodonga county iirc and that’s it