Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[Ferguson97]

Also, Update on Riverside and CA-41 from locals:

https://twitter.com/AlexHilke/status/1590766846781063168

If this is true then that's really bad for Republicans in Cali right?

[John Dule]

With the DDHQ call in NY-18, I would say the Dems are likely at 208 seats now to the Republicans' 215. The Dems basically have to run the table with those remaining tossups. They can lose exactly two. I would expect NY-22 to be one, and probably CA-03 as a second. After that, what is the most likely tipping-point seat? It might actually be CO-03, lol.

[😥]

NYT has the Dems at 191 and Rs at 209. I'm trying to characterize the rest of the seats as best as I can. This is just a rough extrapolation, so please don't quote this post mocking me if any of this doesn't pan out. I'm trying to predict just based on our current information.

Right now, I would characterize an additional 13 seats as "more likely D than R."

1. ME-02
2. CO-08
3. WA-08
4. WA-03
5. NV-01
6. OR-04
7. CA-06
8. CA-09
9. CA-21
10. CA-26
11. CA-35
12. CA-38
13. AK-AL

I would also characterize six seats as "more likely R than D."

1. CA-22
2. CA-27
3. CA-45
4. CA-40
5. AZ-06
6. AZ-02

There are another ten seats that I would call "tossups," but Democrats lead in them.

1. NY-18
2. NV-03
3. NV-04
4. OR-06
5. CA-41
6. CA-46
7. CA-47
8. CA-49
9. AZ-04
10. AZ-01

And finally, six seats that I would call "tossups," but Republicans lead in them.

1. MD-06
2. CO-03
3. CA-13
4. NY-22
5. OR-05
6. CA-03

Factoring in my "more likely" characterizations, right now I have the Dems at 204 and the Republicans at 215. The Republicans will hit 221 if they hold those six tossup seats they currently lead in, but numerous people on this site have suggested that most (if not all) of those six could very easily swing Dem.

A D house would require the Democrats to win all ten of their tossups, plus four of the Republican tossups. That would put them at exactly 218.

Pretty good job, but I would make some changes. My understatement of the situation is something like this:

"more likely D than R."

1. ME-02
2. CO-08
3. WA-08
4. NV-01
5. OR-04
6. CA-06
7. CA-09
8. CA-21
9. CA-26
10. CA-35
11. CA-38
12. AK-AL
13. NY-18 (moved from third category)
14. NV-03 (moved from third category)
15. NV-04 (moved from third category)
16. OR -06 (moved from third category)
17. CA-46 (moved from third category)
18. AZ-04 (moved from third category)
19. MD-06 (moved from fourth category)

I would also characterize six seats as "more likely R than D."

1. CA-27
2. CA-45
3. CA-40
4. AZ-06
5. AZ-02
6. NY-22 (moved from fourth category)

There are another ten seats that I would call "tossups," but Democrats lead in them.
1. CA-41
2. CA-47
3. CA-49
4. AZ-01
5. WA-03 (moved from first category)

And finally, six seats that I would call "tossups," but Republicans lead in them.

1. CO-03
2. CA-13
3. OR-05
4. CA-03
5. CA-22 (moved from second category)

I'm generally more optimistic about Democrats chances, but we'll see

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1590563696547631104

[It’s so Joever]

If CA-41 flips, it would be kinda funny since it was almost drawn as an R sink.

[John Dule]

https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1590563696547631104

I feel so represented rn

[pppolitics]

Path to 218: Tracking the Remaining House Races

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/10/us/elections/results-house-seats-elections-congress.html

[John Dule]

If CA-41 flips, it would be kinda funny since it was almost drawn as an R sink.

How is it an R sink if it has a bunch of Palm Springs homosexuals in it?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

If CA-41 flips, it would be kinda funny since it was almost drawn as an R sink.

How is it an R sink if it has a bunch of Palm Springs homosexuals in it?

“Almost” = I imagine it was an R sink but then they added the gays in.

[😥]

Also I think we can confidently call AZ-04 and MD-06 for Dems now

[ProgressiveModerate]

So CO-08 is it a done deal or does Mirkmeyer still have a shot? It’s extremely close right now on NYT

[GALeftist]

So CO-08 is it a done deal or does Mirkmeyer still have a shot? It’s extremely close right now on NYT

That race is 100% over. Kirkmeyer conceded

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

I didn't know anything about Adam Frisch other than the fact that he might beat Lauren Boebert, so I took a look at his website...the dude basically ran as a Republican but not a Lauren Boebert Republican. Hey, if that's what it takes to win that seat and he also says he's pro-choice...I'll take it.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

So CO-08 is it a done deal or does Mirkmeyer still have a shot? It’s extremely close right now on NYT

Close to done if not fully done. Caravao is still leading and most of the remaining vote is in favorable areas for her.

[soundchaser]

I didn't know anything about Adam Frisch other than the fact that he might beat Lauren Boebert, so I took a look at his website...the dude basically ran as a Republican but not a Lauren Boebert Republican. Hey, if that's what it takes to win that seat and he also says he's pro-choice...I'll take it.

As long as he caucuses with Democrats, it doesn't necessarily matter how he runs against Boebert.

[South Dakota Democrat]

So CO-08 is it a done deal or does Mirkmeyer still have a shot? It’s extremely close right now on NYT

That race is 100% over. Kirkmeyer conceded

Conceding means nothing,  from a legal standpoint.

[Ferguson97]

With the DDHQ call in NY-18, I would say the Dems are likely at 208 seats now to the Republicans' 215. The Dems basically have to run the table with those remaining tossups. They can lose exactly two. I would expect NY-22 to be one, and probably CA-03 as a second. After that, what is the most likely tipping-point seat? It might actually be CO-03, lol.

If the tipping point seat is CO-03 and Boebert loses by <100 votes, then you could actually make the argument that her anti-vax beliefs killed enough of her supporters to cost the GOP the House.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I didn't know anything about Adam Frisch other than the fact that he might beat Lauren Boebert, so I took a look at his website...the dude basically ran as a Republican but not a Lauren Boebert Republican. Hey, if that's what it takes to win that seat and he also says he's pro-choice...I'll take it.

He's an Aspen Liberal who ran as a moderate, he'll be fine.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

https://twitter.com/KyleClark/status/1590771397810610177

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/AliBradleyTV/status/1590781030453370880

[President Johnson]

Some random fun fact: After all the senate terms up for election this time expire in January are the last ones in which Joe Biden administered the oath of office. He did so on January 3, 2017, shortly before leaving the vice presidency.

[GALeftist]

Extremely normal post mortems happening over at Fox…
https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1590680637945806850?s=46&t=hc8Rz2Lysv_...

Something I find annoying about this is that it is blindingly obvious that there are infinite confounders here, the biggest one being that unmarried women are way younger, but also more likely to be college educated, nonwhite, poorer, irreligious, probably LGBTQ+, etc. There's probably some effect even controlling for all that but just forcing some nonwhite female recent college grad to get married is not necessarily going to turn them into a Republican.

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/KyleClark/status/1590771397810610177

WHAT!?!?!?!? I TAKE BACK EVERYTHING I SAID ABOUT ASPEN ITS NOT OVERPRICED AND FULL OF TRANSPLANTS PLEASE PITKIN PLEASE!!!!!

[Oryxslayer]

If CA-41 flips, it would be kinda funny since it was almost drawn as an R sink.

How is it an R sink if it has a bunch of Palm Springs homosexuals in it?

“Almost” = I imagine it was an R sink but then they added the gays in.

CA had a lot of descisions on its  map based on the census racial categories, leading to gerrymandering in the name of access. CA-41 is a White pack, to the back of Riversides ability, its more visible when you look at CVAP. Thing is of course, You have conservative exurban Whites, Snowbirds, and Palm Springs all demographically grouped together.

Now in my opinion, CA-41 is the worst part of the map because of these divergences among whites. There are ways you could have kept Palm Springs with the rest of the coachella valley, and then ripple the precincts around through OC, the Inland  Empire, and SD. The loss of a seat and these ethnic considerations meant that some swing/gop seat was going to shift hard towards Dems, but and OC seat or the old CA-50 would have made more sense and been less geographically ugly.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Extremely normal post mortems happening over at Fox…

Something I find annoying about this is that it is blindingly obvious that there are infinite confounders here, the biggest one being that unmarried women are way younger, but also more likely to be college educated, nonwhite, poorer, probably LGBTQ+, etc. There's probably some effect even controlling for all that but just forcing some nonwhite female recent college grad to get married is not necessarily going to turn them into a Republican.

Also Jesse Watters (irrespective of FOX News) is just an insufferable tool.