Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1590784984444387328

[Spectator]

Just realized if Perez wins and Porter holds on that the entirety of the West Coast, including Alaska will be blue.

[TheReckoning]

When everything is said and done, there should really be an investigation on why some states take so long to count the vote. It’s dangerous for democracy yet easily fixable.

No investigation needed - in some states, the way mail-in voting occurs means it takes ages to count. We know how to fix things, but (mostly) Republican state legislatures won't let it happen.

I’m pretty sure the California, Oregon and Nevada state legislatures, where most of these seats are outstanding, don’t exactly have Republican strangleholds on their legislature.

[Atlas Force]

Seems like a pretty notable underperformance for Walker there

https://twitter.com/jonathancasasga/status/1590738950129582080

This is my district after redistricting!  Previously Forsyth County was in the 9th, represented by the awful Andrew Clyde. 

Oh cool!

McCormick was Carolyn Bourdeaux's opponent in the old 7th in 2020.  When the new map made the 7th more D and the 6th more R, he moved over here to run -- the reverse of Lucy McBath switching from the 6th to the 7th.  He seems fairly conservative but not a MAGA type, which is a pretty good fit for the current makeup of the district.  He won Forsyth 71-29, compared to Kemp's 72-27 and Walker's 65-32.

Interesting

[Hope For A New Era]

An historic

Why do people write this?

Stop writing this, it makes no sense

[EastAnglianLefty]

Extremely normal post mortems happening over at Fox…
https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1590680637945806850?s=46&t=hc8Rz2Lysv_...

Something I find annoying about this is that it is blindingly obvious that there are infinite confounders here, the biggest one being that unmarried women are way younger, but also more likely to be college educated, nonwhite, poorer, irreligious, probably LGBTQ+, etc. There's probably some effect even controlling for all that but just forcing some nonwhite female recent college grad to get married is not necessarily going to turn them into a Republican.

No, but the implication here is that her husband is going to do that. Yes, that is exactly as sketchy as it sounds.

[soundchaser]

When everything is said and done, there should really be an investigation on why some states take so long to count the vote. It’s dangerous for democracy yet easily fixable.

No investigation needed - in some states, the way mail-in voting occurs means it takes ages to count. We know how to fix things, but (mostly) Republican state legislatures won't let it happen.

I’m pretty sure the California, Oregon and Nevada state legislatures, where most of these seats are outstanding, don’t exactly have Republican strangleholds on their legislature.

Hence "(mostly)" - Arizona, Pennsylvania, etc. all had chances to change the way things were counted and their legislatures blocked them.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1590784984444387328

Trump makes stuff up? Now, that's a shocker.

[Not Me, Us]

https://twitter.com/KyleClark/status/1590771397810610177

WHAT!?!?!?!? I TAKE BACK EVERYTHING I SAID ABOUT ASPEN ITS NOT OVERPRICED AND FULL OF TRANSPLANTS PLEASE PITKIN PLEASE!!!!!

What district are you from, Forumlurker?

[Lief 🗽]

Just realized if Perez wins and Porter holds on that the entirety of the West Coast, including Alaska will be blue.

Has this ever happened before?

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/s_golonka/status/1590794080015233025

[TheReckoning]

When everything is said and done, there should really be an investigation on why some states take so long to count the vote. It’s dangerous for democracy yet easily fixable.

No investigation needed - in some states, the way mail-in voting occurs means it takes ages to count. We know how to fix things, but (mostly) Republican state legislatures won't let it happen.

I’m pretty sure the California, Oregon and Nevada state legislatures, where most of these seats are outstanding, don’t exactly have Republican strangleholds on their legislature.

Hence "(mostly)" - Arizona, Pennsylvania, etc. all had chances to change the way things were counted and their legislatures blocked them.

Pennsylvania has had no problems with counting votes, not nearly as much as the Democratic states.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1590781236792135680

This... doesn't really mean Senate will be a knifes edge. GOV though, yes.

[wbrocks67]

Is caravero truly safe? The district has narrowed and apparently only 90% is in. I could be missing something though.

It looks like a lot of what is coming so far is from the red areas (90% in). Adams is only 85% in, so it looks like there may be more blue area left. I would think Kirkmeyer's team would've known what was left before she conceded though?

[Lief 🗽]

Yes… ha ha ha… YES!
https://twitter.com/davidedwards/status/1590751056748720128?s=46&t=6BCI5Gnw-...

[ProgressiveModerate]

Is caravero truly safe? The district has narrowed and apparently only 90% is in. I could be missing something though.

It looks like a lot of what is coming so far is from the red areas (90% in). Adams is only 85% in, so it looks like there may be more blue area left. I would think Kirkmeyer's team would've known what was left before she conceded though?

Yeah that’s my logic too, just that Adams County isn’t blue to the point where a favorable batch in the remaining 15% means the Weld portion is able to overtake it.

If Dems were to lose CO-03 and CO-08 by very tiny margins after both appeared to be going their way, that would be extremely dissapointing.

[wbrocks67]

If that AZ dump is only a bit better for GOP than last nights, or basically a wash, it may point to the exits basically being pretty right (pointing towards Kelly +4/5 and Hobbs +0.3)

[LimoLiberal]

Another plot twist (but this doesn't really make sense to me? There were not supposed to be this many non-election day early votes yet to be counted)

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1590793720588546048

[wbrocks67]

Is caravero truly safe? The district has narrowed and apparently only 90% is in. I could be missing something though.

It looks like a lot of what is coming so far is from the red areas (90% in). Adams is only 85% in, so it looks like there may be more blue area left. I would think Kirkmeyer's team would've known what was left before she conceded though?

Yeah that’s my logic too, just that Adams County isn’t blue to the point where a favorable batch in the remaining 15% means the Weld portion is able to overtake it.

If Dems were to lose CO-03 and CO-08 by very tiny margins after both appeared to be going their way, that would be extremely dissapointing.

I have to imagine Kirkmeyer wouldn't concede unless her team was very sure about what the remaining ballots were, but we'll see I guess.

DDHQ also called it, FWIW. But they may have called AZ-06 too early too.

[Person Man]

If that AZ dump is only a bit better for GOP than last nights, or basically a wash, it may point to the exits basically being pretty right (pointing towards Kelly +4/5 and Hobbs +0.3)

Another plot twist (but this doesn't really make sense to me? There were not supposed to be this many non-election day early votes yet to be counted)

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1590793720588546048

I thought this pretty much seals it.

[wbrocks67]

Another plot twist (but this doesn't really make sense to me? There were not supposed to be this many non-election day early votes yet to be counted)

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1590793720588546048

I think this is a part of the election day drop-offs. The 275K total.

[GALeftist]

When everything is said and done, there should really be an investigation on why some states take so long to count the vote. It’s dangerous for democracy yet easily fixable.

No investigation needed - in some states, the way mail-in voting occurs means it takes ages to count. We know how to fix things, but (mostly) Republican state legislatures won't let it happen.

I’m pretty sure the California, Oregon and Nevada state legislatures, where most of these seats are outstanding, don’t exactly have Republican strangleholds on their legislature.

Hence "(mostly)" - Arizona, Pennsylvania, etc. all had chances to change the way things were counted and their legislatures blocked them.

Pennsylvania has had no problems with counting votes, not nearly as much as the Democratic states.

Everyone was warning us to be prepared for a long slog since Philly was forced to count mail votes more slowly – only reason that didn't come to pass is Shapiro and Fetterman knocking it out of the park.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/adriaeln/status/1590792751150469135

[Beet]

Extremely normal post mortems happening over at Fox…
https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1590680637945806850?s=46&t=hc8Rz2Lysv_...

Something I find annoying about this is that it is blindingly obvious that there are infinite confounders here, the biggest one being that unmarried women are way younger, but also more likely to be college educated, nonwhite, poorer, irreligious, probably LGBTQ+, etc. There's probably some effect even controlling for all that but just forcing some nonwhite female recent college grad to get married is not necessarily going to turn them into a Republican.

No, but the implication here is that her husband is going to do that. Yes, that is exactly as sketchy as it sounds.

I think the idea is that unmarried women vote for Democrats because they rely on the government to take care of their kids, while if they were married they would rely on their husband's and hence vote Republican. Women's rights no longer has as much appeal if you're relying on your husband's salary and he's the one competing with his female coworker for a promotion. Welfare also becomes less important.

The confounding factor is that many "unmarried" women are in common law marriages but eschew legalizing their status to claim benefits for single mothers. Being below a certain income level with kids qualifies you for all sorts of crap. Do the math and see if that outweighs the tax bracket benefits of marriage.

[wbrocks67]

Also, that 172K appears to be the election day drop-offs.

There is still ~60K VBMs that are were received Fri-Mon that also need to be counted still, and I would think those would break similarly to the batch last night (that Kelly and Hobbs won like 8-11)