Early Voting thread.

[bilaps]

Republicans won first day of early vote in Clark by 1,1k. 5,1 to 4,0k.

But that's only in-person. Encouraging sign for Republicans though.

In Washoe that 600 lead for Dems in encouraging for them.

Still early.

[wbrocks67]

GA 2020
Total EV (Mail + in person): 4.01M (56.5% white - 27.7% black) —> +28.8 white

GA 2021
Total EV (mail + in-person): 3.15M (55.5% white - 30.9% black) —> +24.6 white

GA 2022
Total EV (mail + in person): 817K (55.5% white - 32.6% black) —> +22.9 white

Runoff 2021:

12/15: 483K (53.9% white, 33.4% black) ---> +20.5 white
12/16: 715K (54.5% white, 33.1% black) ---> +21.4 white
12/17: 914K (55.0% white, 32.5% black) —> +22.5 white
12/18: 1.12M (55.4% white, 32.0% black) —> +23.4 white
12/19: 1.34M (55.6% white, 31.6% black) —> +24.0 white
12/21: 1.47M (54.4% white, 32.4% black) —> +22.0 white
12/22: 1.68M (54.8% white, 31.9% black) —> +22.9 white
12/23: 1.88M (55.0% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.4 white
12/24: 2.06M (55.5% white, 31.5% black) —> +24.0 white
12/25: 2.07M (55.5% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.9 white

[wbrocks67]

Republicans won first day of early vote in Clark by 1,1k. 5,1 to 4,0k.

But that's only in-person. Encouraging sign for Republicans though.

In Washoe that 600 lead for Dems in encouraging for them.

Still early.

Yeah, given the huge dropoff in in-person in Washoe as well from 2018, I imagine not only did the wind have something to do with overall drop-off, but the every-voter-gets-a-mail-ballot stuff is going to scramble things until we get more data.

[axiomsofdominion]

Having to wait till late Monday to get real info is super annoying.

[Mr.Phips]

Republicans won first day of early vote in Clark by 1,1k. 5,1 to 4,0k.

But that's only in-person. Encouraging sign for Republicans though.

In Washoe that 600 lead for Dems in encouraging for them.

Still early.

Yeah, given the huge dropoff in in-person in Washoe as well from 2018, I imagine not only did the wind have something to do with overall drop-off, but the every-voter-gets-a-mail-ballot stuff is going to scramble things until we get more data.

If Clark continues to be this bad it’s a 2014 redux here.  That’s actually something Dems can control, since it would mean that their turnout operation is asleep.

[Brittain33]

Republicans won first day of early vote in Clark by 1,1k. 5,1 to 4,0k.

But that's only in-person. Encouraging sign for Republicans though.

In Washoe that 600 lead for Dems in encouraging for them.

Still early.

Yeah, given the huge dropoff in in-person in Washoe as well from 2018, I imagine not only did the wind have something to do with overall drop-off, but the every-voter-gets-a-mail-ballot stuff is going to scramble things until we get more data.

If Clark continues to be this bad it’s a 2014 redux here. 

Help me understand why people keep trying to extrapolate from Day 1 when people repeatedly point out there was a dust storm yesterday and Nevada is for the first time mailing a ballot to everyone. I’m not sure why this keeps happening.

[bilaps]

Republicans won first day of early vote in Clark by 1,1k. 5,1 to 4,0k.

But that's only in-person. Encouraging sign for Republicans though.

In Washoe that 600 lead for Dems in encouraging for them.

Still early.

Yeah, given the huge dropoff in in-person in Washoe as well from 2018, I imagine not only did the wind have something to do with overall drop-off, but the every-voter-gets-a-mail-ballot stuff is going to scramble things until we get more data.

If Clark continues to be this bad it’s a 2014 redux here. 

Help me understand why people keep trying to extrapolate from Day 1 when people repeatedly point out there was a dust storm yesterday and Nevada is for the first time mailing a ballot to everyone. I’m not sure why this keeps happening.

It's not the first time everyone gets a ballot. It happened in 2020.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Republicans won first day of early vote in Clark by 1,1k. 5,1 to 4,0k.

But that's only in-person. Encouraging sign for Republicans though.

In Washoe that 600 lead for Dems in encouraging for them.

Still early.

Yeah, given the huge dropoff in in-person in Washoe as well from 2018, I imagine not only did the wind have something to do with overall drop-off, but the every-voter-gets-a-mail-ballot stuff is going to scramble things until we get more data.

If Clark continues to be this bad it’s a 2014 redux here. 

Help me understand why people keep trying to extrapolate from Day 1 when people repeatedly point out there was a dust storm yesterday and Nevada is for the first time mailing a ballot to everyone. I’m not sure why this keeps happening.

Because Atlas flocks to any little niblets of data like birds to bird seed.  I think we're all hankering for substantive numbers. 

[UncleSam]

Republicans won first day of early vote in Clark by 1,1k. 5,1 to 4,0k.

But that's only in-person. Encouraging sign for Republicans though.

In Washoe that 600 lead for Dems in encouraging for them.

Still early.

Yeah, given the huge dropoff in in-person in Washoe as well from 2018, I imagine not only did the wind have something to do with overall drop-off, but the every-voter-gets-a-mail-ballot stuff is going to scramble things until we get more data.

If Clark continues to be this bad it’s a 2014 redux here. 

Help me understand why people keep trying to extrapolate from Day 1 when people repeatedly point out there was a dust storm yesterday and Nevada is for the first time mailing a ballot to everyone. I’m not sure why this keeps happening.

The comparisons to 2020 seem more apt, but the dust storm still needs to be considered regardless.

Either way let’s see where the numbers go in the next week or so. The first day is often a bit wacky.

[axiomsofdominion]

I'm not seeing a list, even switched to Edge in case it was an extension.

These seven counties combined were Biden +44 (versus the rest of the state, which was Trump +19).

Gabriel Sterling said Gwinnett had 7-7 Sunday voting both days. You were right the inconsistency in how counties list voting hours was very difficult to parse.

[axiomsofdominion]

Day 1 of early voting in Washoe County NV (Reno).


As expected Republicans lead in person turnout, Democrats Absentee voting.

Total

Dems 3,520
Reps  2,961
Other 1,771

In person

Dems 1,030
Reps 1,348
Other 1,284

Mail

Dems 2,490
Reps 1,614
Other 1,284

Washoe county has a slight Republican registration edge.

I need a sweet website with graphs and tables comparing this to 2018/2020 like we have for Georgia. This is the major bellwether Senate race and having moderately meaningful early voting data would be awesome.

Might be helpful:

https://georgiavotes.com/

https://georgiavotes.com/graphs.php

Yeah I follow the GeorgiaVotes site, would love to see a similar fancy one for NV.

Gonna be interesting to see the women/black vote share today. Churches are heavily female.

[wbrocks67]

CLARK COUNTY
Mail: 762 (D53-17)
Early voting: 11,396 (R45-37)
Total: 12,158 (R43-38)

WASHOE
Mail: 5,388 (D46-30)
Early voting: 2,865 (R47-36)
Total: 8,252 (D43-36)

Would not be surprised if we get another 2020 redux with Dems doing better in mail, and GOP doing better in in-early person. Dems leading strongly so far on Washoe makes me even more interested in the Monday dump then for Clark.

[Adam Griffin]

Yeah I follow the GeorgiaVotes site, would love to see a similar fancy one for NV.

Gonna be interesting to see the women/black vote share today. Churches are heavily female.

Sorry, I read that wrong at first: thought you were looking for one for Georgia. Whoops!

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Early voting kicks off tomorrow in Texas

[MikeIrvine]

Early voting kicks off tomorrow in Texas

Excited to drop in my vote

[MT Treasurer]

Republicans won first day of early vote in Clark by 1,1k. 5,1 to 4,0k.

But that's only in-person. Encouraging sign for Republicans though.

In Washoe that 600 lead for Dems in encouraging for them.

Still early.

MATTROSE94 told us

Mark Kelly, Adam Laxalt, Raphael Warnock, and John Fetterman. Adam Laxalt I have winning by 10% and carrying all counties in Nevada except Washoe, whereas I have John Fetterman winning by only a couple hundred votes.

/s

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Republicans won first day of early vote in Clark by 1,1k. 5,1 to 4,0k.

But that's only in-person. Encouraging sign for Republicans though.

In Washoe that 600 lead for Dems in encouraging for them.

Still early.

MATTROSE94 told us

Mark Kelly, Adam Laxalt, Raphael Warnock, and John Fetterman. Adam Laxalt I have winning by 10% and carrying all counties in Nevada except Washoe, whereas I have John Fetterman winning by only a couple hundred votes.

/s

Imagine winning Washoe and losing Clarke.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1584257388546117632

[axiomsofdominion]

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1584257388546117632

If we are lucky we might see 25k voters. Probably not but it would be funny to crack 400% First Sunday turnout.

Edit following this post I saw that there were 18106 votes today. Assuming that doesn't count mail but maybe they don't process mail today anyways?

Roughly 3x+ the votes of First Sunday 2018. Not bad. And presumably heavily black.

[wbrocks67]

Until we get more mail-ins, all we can do is speculate.

However, Republicans are the ones who won early in person voting in Clark in 2020, by at least 7% IIRC.

Judging by those early Washoe mail ballots, I would expect Clark to be heavily Dem as well.

Is anyone really surprised that in-person early voting is potentially lacking all around when every single voter in the entire state got a mail-in ballot?

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1584305803112030208

[Ferguson97]

[jamestroll]

lol.

Have fun over analyzing the early voting. No one ever learns.

[axiomsofdominion]

Early vote only matters in NV/GA. I ignore it in PA or NC for instance.

[wbrocks67]

Early vote only matters in NV/GA. I ignore it in PA or NC for instance.

The only thing I'm watching for PA is return rate, to see which side is more motivated.

NC has burned us so many times, I wouldn't even try and take a guess on how it's going.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1584330499933507584