UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Can Westminster keep the issue settled if the public verdict is so damning?
UK public overwhelmingly say Brexit has clearly failed

There would need to be a pressure campaign similar to UKIP 2013-16. Labour MP’s are essentially traumatised by what happened 16-19, and afraid of their own shadows on this issue, the majority won’t move either until they are forced or have overwhelming concrete evidence the public has changed.

The public will can be a fickle thing. Even if they wanted to reverse Brexit, they'd have to contend with the fact UK EU membership came with carveouts they would be unlikely to secure a second time.

[CumbrianLefty]

ST had done another hilariously bad piece about the Conservatives which uses a single comment from a focus group* to suggest Keir isn't seen as a PM in waiting; despite errrr all the polling since 2022 showing huge leads on leadership.

A tory 'source' even deployed the classic line used from 1997; 'Keir will say anything to get a vote... at least you know what John Mayor Sunak thinks even if you disagree...'


*if I was cynical I would note the firms who often do these focus groups were set up by former Conservative advisors; Labour of course have people who did this but it's telling they don't spend a lot of their time telling journalists was their results are showing...

The most hilarious thing about this piece is that it mentions - almost as an afterthought - that an MRP survey has Starmer beating Sunak as "best PM" in the vast majority of constituencies, including Rishis own! But who cares about that when a single focus group respondent doesn't like SKS.

[MABA 2020]

Is he unwell, or has he just lost a lot of weight?

https://twitter.com/GBNEWS/status/1741010038192218378?s=20

Really doubling down on the dishevelled look, you'd think he might want to project a bit more put togetherness after his premiership ended in chaos?

[Wiswylfen]

I see once again we find ourselves asking the question why, exactly, the right were so eager to join themselves to a bunch of miserable, deranged freaks who, when not whining/tweeting every waking hour about transgender people, are expressing their sympathy for people who murder newborn children. Oh well!

[Badger]

Can Westminster keep the issue settled if the public verdict is so damning?
UK public overwhelmingly say Brexit has clearly failed

There would need to be a pressure campaign similar to UKIP 2013-16. Labour MP’s are essentially traumatised by what happened 16-19, and afraid of their own shadows on this issue, the majority won’t move either until they are forced or have overwhelming concrete evidence the public has changed.

Thank you for answering my question before I even had the chance to ask it. Here's Hope for a return campaign Maybe in the immediate wake of farmer getting a 97 or 45 levels Mega Landslide win and building off that movement.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

With regards to the value of using the 1992 election as a historical precedent for a Tory turnaround, it might be useful to point out that between John Major becoming Prime Minister in 1990 and the 1992 general election, the Conservatives never trailed Labour by more than 10 points in any poll; while the exact opposite of that has been true for Rishi Sunak.

What’s more, even at the depths of 1990 between the Poll Tax riots and Maggie’s defenestration, the Tory vote never bottomed out remotely as far. In the week after the Mid Staffs by-election the worst polls of the term came in with a 28% vote share (what the Tories are currently polling at!) and a 28% lead (a full 10 points short of Truss’s resignation week polls).
Oh and not to mention, after Thatcher’s resignation, every single poll conducted in the next 4 weeks had a Tory lead! About 2/5ths of all polls during Major’s first term would show a Tory lead! Contrast with Rishi who has recorded… zero polls with a Labour lead in single digits in 14 months.
But no, clearly the hedge fund manager with a net worth of half a billion pounds is perfectly suited to emulate the success of the humble grey man from Brixton.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Is he unwell, or has he just lost a lot of weight?

https://twitter.com/GBNEWS/status/1741010038192218378?s=20

My God, he looks like he’s wasting away!

[Torrain]

In one of his first columns for the Daily Mail, Johnson did a whole spiel about how he was on Ozempic, and even that couldn't suppress his appetite.

Presumably, it's working now - and has somehow turned him into 2023-era Tom Baker?

[Meclazine for Israel]

Rishi

Home Alone for Christmas

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C1UWQeBiSPK/

Looks like a useful off spinner.

[CumbrianLefty]

Sunak is reported as saying the next GE will likely be "in the second half of this year". Looks like an attempt to damp down May election speculation, whilst not closing off that option entirely.

[TheTide]

Sunak is reported as saying the next GE will likely be "in the second half of this year". Looks like an attempt to damp down May election speculation, whilst not closing off that option entirely.

I think Paul Goodman (editor of none other than ConservativeHome) urged him to do exactly this just the other day.

[CumbrianLefty]

Not quite, Goodman called for him to say the next GE *will* be in November - no ifs, no buts.

This still gives the Tories some wriggle room - having said that some are warming to the idea of a GE at the end of November in the hope that a Trump win in the US (and the likely resulting chaos) might cause some risk-averse voters to stick with the incumbent, plus maybe cause problems for Starmer.

[WD]

Not quite, Goodman called for him to say the next GE *will* be in November - no ifs, no buts.

This still gives the Tories some wriggle room - having said that some are warming to the idea of a GE at the end of November in the hope that a Trump win in the US (and the likely resulting chaos) might cause some risk-averse voters to stick with the incumbent, plus maybe cause problems for Starmer.

Sounds like desperation

[YL]

Not quite, Goodman called for him to say the next GE *will* be in November - no ifs, no buts.

This still gives the Tories some wriggle room - having said that some are warming to the idea of a GE at the end of November in the hope that a Trump win in the US (and the likely resulting chaos) might cause some risk-averse voters to stick with the incumbent, plus maybe cause problems for Starmer.

I'd say there's still quite a lot of wriggle room.  Sunak's comments yesterday didn't rule anything out and were probably mostly aimed at Labour's line that they expect it to be in May and that if he doesn't go then he's bottling it.

If forced to bet on a month, I'd still go for October.

[CumbrianLefty]

Not quite, Goodman called for him to say the next GE *will* be in November - no ifs, no buts.

This still gives the Tories some wriggle room - having said that some are warming to the idea of a GE at the end of November in the hope that a Trump win in the US (and the likely resulting chaos) might cause some risk-averse voters to stick with the incumbent, plus maybe cause problems for Starmer.

Sounds like desperation

I mean.....yes??

But if you are in the situation the Tories are in, straw clutching will come naturally.

[TheTide]

Reading between the lines I'd say that the hope is that the Match budget cuts the Labour lead to low double digits (which, theoretically, might only require the Tories to go up by 3% or so) or less. The problem then becomes the 'cutting and running' line. There would probably have to be an extra layer of justification, maybe something to do with boats?

[CumbrianLefty]

I don't think even low double digits would be enough tbh. They will have to make a final decision on a May poll within a few weeks of the Budget, so any effect would have to be quick and sizeable.

They could also likely squeeze in another financial "event" before a late 2024 election.

[Conservatopia]

Bear in mind though that at this point most Tories would be happy with a a mere 7-point defeat.

[CumbrianLefty]

Oh they would snap your metaphorical arm off for that, no question.

But another thing they can't presume is that they will gain - or even hold - ground during a campaign.

[YL]

Chris Skidmore MP (Kingswood) has announced that he is resigning the Conservative whip and will be standing down as an MP "as soon as possible".

He was already standing down at the next election, and the constituency is being abolished.

https://twitter.com/CSkidmoreUK/status/1743324376479486007

[GoTfan]

I think the Tories are operating on Scott Morrison Logic, which is never good for one's political health. Everyone thought 2021 would be the election out here, then all the scandals came out about Morrison's government and he decided to wait as long as he could in the hope the damage would be lessened.

[JimJamUK]

I think the Tories are operating on Scott Morrison Logic, which is never good for one's political health. Everyone thought 2021 would be the election out here, then all the scandals came out about Morrison's government and he decided to wait as long as he could in the hope the damage would be lessened.

Like Morrison, it seems more vibes than actual policy changes (including the Labo(u)r opposition trying not to be very distinctive on the issue).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I think the Tories are operating on Scott Morrison Logic, which is never good for one's political health. Everyone thought 2021 would be the election out here, then all the scandals came out about Morrison's government and he decided to wait as long as he could in the hope the damage would be lessened.

Like Morrison, it seems more vibes than actual policy changes (including the Labo(u)r opposition trying not to be very distinctive on the issue).

One difference is that their position is far worse than Morrison's. To make a soccer analogy...they are already playing with only eight players. So it's probably not nearly as bad for them in practice for them to feel this way, if anything. (in terms of success chances)

[Blair]

Telling that Sunak was campaigning yesterday in what I call the posh suburbs of GM; in two seats that had relatively large majorities in 2019; despite the bluster from CCHQ they clearly know it’s not as rosy as they think.

[CumbrianLefty]

Another Tory MP (Scott Benton's neighbour in Blackpool North, no less) has been up to no good.