UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[Epaminondas]

But the Stormont government is the Westminster government...

This makes me wonder how Labour would handle this...presuming Starmer wins in 2024.

For one, get rid of the incompetent Heaton-Harris who seems to have learnt of the NI situation off a post-it note.
Starmer's Labour could stop blocking the Assembly election rerun, which should have happened 6 months ago. The DUP being punished at the ballot for obstructionism would be a very satisfying, if unlikely solution.

If that doesn't work, at least apply political pressure on the minority party through different funding avenue that would be opened only if Stormont formed again.

[Torrain]

The first thing to remember about Northern Ireland, is that they’re having local elections in all of their local councils on the 18th of May. That’s likely to affect the calculus. If the TUV takes votes off the DUP from the right, it’ll scare them stiff, and encourage them to obstruct further. If they lose votes to the UUP and Alliance (both of whom could conceivably overtake them in several unionist regions) it could be something of a wake-up call, and make them a little more amenable to cooperation.

It’s NI though - anything could happen.

[TheTide]

But the Stormont government is the Westminster government...

This makes me wonder how Labour would handle this...presuming Starmer wins in 2024.

For one, get rid of the incompetent Heaton-Harris who seems to have learnt of the NI situation off a post-it note.
Starmer's Labour could stop blocking the Assembly election rerun, which should have happened 6 months ago. The DUP being punished at the ballot for obstructionism would be a very satisfying, if unlikely solution.

If that doesn't work, at least apply political pressure on the minority party through different funding avenue that would be opened only if Stormont formed again.

I've heard that Heaton-Harris is a nice guy. Which may be one of the problems here.

[Epaminondas]

I'm surprised that Sinn Fein are attending the coronation - this seems to indicate they really are moving away from their republicanism towards a generic centre-left welfare state platform.

If the TUV takes votes off the DUP from the right, it’ll scare them stiff, and encourage them to obstruct further. If they lose votes to the UUP and Alliance (both of whom could conceivably overtake them in several unionist regions) it could be something of a wake-up call, and make them a little more amenable to cooperation.

Thanks to Ireland's reasonable ranked ballot system, the last assembly elections came as a real shock to the TUV: with 7.6% of the first vote, they obtained ONE out of 90 seat (1.1%), due to how radioactive their party is to transfers.

If frustrated unionist voters have an ounce of strategic reasoning, they'll lend their votes to centrist parties who will actually get elected and reopen Stormont.

[MABA 2020]

And obviously the worst case for Conservatives is the South and Southwest are just as Orange as they were a day ago, but the national vote is still just as red as polling suggests.

We can only dream

[Torrain]

And obviously the worst case for Conservatives is the South and Southwest are just as Orange as they were a day ago, but the national vote is still just as red as polling suggests.

“I now call the Leader of the Opposition to the despatch box.”



I kid. But the chances of them retaking third-party status in the Commons seems to be increasing, at the very least.

[CumbrianLefty]

I'm surprised that Sinn Fein are attending the coronation - this seems to indicate they really are moving away from their republicanism towards a generic centre-left welfare state platform.

Hmmm, it seems mainly symbolic to me (though of course symbolism matters *hugely* in NI)

In truth, their attitude towards UK royalty has been softening for a while.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's also a slyly clever way to show up the pettiness of the DUP at present. 'If we can do this...' and so on.

[icc]

It's also a slyly clever way to show up the pettiness of the DUP at present. 'If we can do this...' and so on.

I also wonder whether the move is aimed more at a Northern Irish or a Republic electorate - not that the monarchy is popular in the Republic, but they are certainly trying to draw a line under some of their old … ahem … activities.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1655878847219236864
I'm sure this will go seemlessly, and in no way cause a diplomatic incident.

[Earthling]

https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1655878847219236864
I'm sure this will go seemlessly, and in no way cause a diplomatic incident.

Why would the Chinese take Truss seriously? Nobody else does.

[EastAnglianLefty]

I'm surprised that Sinn Fein are attending the coronation - this seems to indicate they really are moving away from their republicanism towards a generic centre-left welfare state platform.

If the TUV takes votes off the DUP from the right, it’ll scare them stiff, and encourage them to obstruct further. If they lose votes to the UUP and Alliance (both of whom could conceivably overtake them in several unionist regions) it could be something of a wake-up call, and make them a little more amenable to cooperation.

Thanks to Ireland's reasonable ranked ballot system, the last assembly elections came as a real shock to the TUV: with 7.6% of the first vote, they obtained ONE out of 90 seat (1.1%), due to how radioactive their party is to transfers.

If frustrated unionist voters have an ounce of strategic reasoning, they'll lend their votes to centrist parties who will actually get elected and reopen Stormont.

On the one hand, it's easier for the TUV to get people elected at council level because DEAs are smaller and usually more homogenous than parliamentary seats. On the other hand, they're running few enough candidates that organisation is definitely still an issue for them.

It's been a fairly quiet campaign for the most part, except on the part of the DUP where it's been absolutely subterranean - clearly a calculation that reminding voters of their existence right now isn't going to win them any more votes.

[TheTide]

Andrew Bridgen has joined the Reclaim Party. First sitting MP since Douglas Carswell to be in a party to the right of the Tories (not counting the DUP etc).

[Torrain]

Andrew Bridgen has joined the Reclaim Party.

Have to imagine that press-conference Reclaim have scheduled for tomorrow morning is going to be… awkward. Between Fox and Bridgen, I imagine it’ll be a string of vaccine conspiracies that would make even Andrew Wakefield blush.

[JimJamUK]

Andrew Bridgen has joined the Reclaim Party.

Have to imagine that press-conference Reclaim have scheduled for tomorrow morning is going to be… awkward. Between Fox and Bridgen, I imagine it’ll be a string of vaccine conspiracies that would make even Andrew Wakefield blush.

2017 Labour voter of course, and from what I can tell a thoroughly unpleasant person years before that.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It was always a little amusing that his acting abilities resembled those of his uncle rather than his father: now his political views are like his uncle's as well. Though, if anything, somehow even more embarrassing.

[CumbrianLefty]

2017 Labour voter of course, and from what I can tell a thoroughly unpleasant person years before that.

Self-interest does apply here yes, but I don't think voting Labour in 2017 makes you "unpleasant".

[YL]

Bridgen joining Reclaim is now official.  The Commons website hasn't been updated yet (EDIT: now it has), but the composition should now be

Con 354 (including 3 Deputy Speakers)
Lab 196 (including 1 Deputy Speaker)
SNP 45
Lib Dem 14
DUP 8
Sinn Féin 7
Plaid 3
SDLP 2
Alba 2
Green 1
Alliance 1
Reclaim 1
Speaker 1
Independent 15 (7 ex-Lab, 6 ex-Con, 1 ex-SNP, 1 ex-Plaid)

Government working majority 64 (treating SF, Speaker and Deputies as non-voters); in practice it's higher than that as the ex-Con Independents mostly still vote with the Government.

[CumbrianLefty]

PMQs today was a classic example of "blood sports" - to use the hackneyed analogy a boxing referee would have intervened to prevent further punishment half way through. Starmer was both shooting fish in the proverbial barrel and enjoying himself in doing so, whilst Sunak's desperation was such that he went beyond the usual "but Corbyn" nonsense and actually fell back on "Labour love lockdowns!" - all his lines fell totally flat, to almost funereal silence from his own side.

But I thought Tom Harris said......

[Coldstream]

Andrew Bridgen has joined the Reclaim Party.

Have to imagine that press-conference Reclaim have scheduled for tomorrow morning is going to be… awkward. Between Fox and Bridgen, I imagine it’ll be a string of vaccine conspiracies that would make even Andrew Wakefield blush.

Bridgen’s seat was actually Labour 1997-2010, so maybe him running for reclaim will take enough Tory vote that we can come back - I doubt we’d hold it for a long time but it’s possible.

[Torrain]

Andrew Bridgen has joined the Reclaim Party.

Have to imagine that press-conference Reclaim have scheduled for tomorrow morning is going to be… awkward. Between Fox and Bridgen, I imagine it’ll be a string of vaccine conspiracies that would make even Andrew Wakefield blush.

Bridgen’s seat was actually Labour 1997-2010, so maybe him running for reclaim will take enough Tory vote that we can come back - I doubt we’d hold it for a long time but it’s possible.

Aye - definitely one to watch, even with a majority as large as the Tories got in 2019.

Labour overtook the Tories on the North West Leicestershire District Council last week, and denied the Conservatives overall control for the first time since 2007, so there’s definitely a shift of sorts going on.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It is an area that has changed a lot in recent decades (it is now a comfortable semi-rural constituency with a few working class bits poking through as odd memorials to a different time), but if recent electoral movement holds up and if the insane potato man does run for his new crank party, then it would certainly be worth keeping an eye on.

[JimJamUK]

It is an area that has changed a lot in recent decades (it is now a comfortable semi-rural constituency with a few working class bits poking through as odd memorials to a different time), but if recent electoral movement holds up and if the insane potato man does run for his new crank party, then it would certainly be worth keeping an eye on.

A description that could apply to quite a few constituencies these days.

[JimJamUK]

Aye - definitely one to watch, even with a majority as large as the Tories got in 2019.

Labour overtook the Tories on the North West Leicestershire District Council last week, and denied the Conservatives overall control for the first time since 2007, so there’s definitely a shift of sorts going on.

Although they still came 2nd in vote share (it’s one of a number of places where Labour can have a more efficient vote distribution these days, owing to post-industrial small towns being able to vote modestly Labour (but usually not overwhelmingly) while the wealthy small villages are still Tory bankers). Regardless, it’s definitely the sort of place that had an outsized number of voters who are willing to switch to Labour if the Tories are really pissing them off.

[TheTide]

It is an area that has changed a lot in recent decades (it is now a comfortable semi-rural constituency with a few working class bits poking through as odd memorials to a different time), but if recent electoral movement holds up and if the insane potato man does run for his new crank party, then it would certainly be worth keeping an eye on.

A description that could apply to quite a few constituencies these days.

What constituencies have gone in the other direction (more working-class with areas of comfort)? I'm thinking quite a few in the Merseyside area.