UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[Lumine]

What surprises me is that, until a few months ago, the SNP seemed to be bolstered by a reputation, or at least a perception (however misguided) of ruthlessness and some degree of efficiency/unity, Salmond notwithstanding. And they've suddenly started to run like headless chickens, senior members are risking prison, and the First Minister is in a crusade to piss off as many people as he can in the shortest possible timespan.

The contrast, to me at least, is really jarring to see. Was it always a house of cards and Sturgeon was just that good in masking vulnerabilities?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Which government is in more of a mess at the moment - the Holyrood one or the Westminster one?

[Torrain]

Was it always a house of cards and Sturgeon was just that good in masking vulnerabilities?

There's a long answer here - one that others have probably written up better, in column inches and books. But to my (admittedly biased) mind, the short answer is yes.

Sturgeon's overly-broad coalition, including everyone from Western Isles fishermen, to Glasgow student activists was always unwieldy, held together by the prospect of independence with diverging policy positions. She took one-half of her coalition for granted by going into government with the Greens, signing support for a number of policies that polling show remain controversial with the public, not to mention her MSPs...

Without her media experience and stature, the whole thing has become even more unmanageable. Yousaf's decision to shrug and say "policy X is a red line for the Greens" on issues like HPMAs, when his MPs and MSPs raise concerns behind closed doors has not helped matters.

The Green coalition wasn't necessary - the SNP are one vote short of a majority. It was a typically Sturgeonite bit of political theatre, to reinforce that a pro-independence majority existed at Holyrood, at the expense of political capital and control of the agenda.

Her decision to leave the stage without planning for a transition or successor left the government in the lurch, and grappling with a number of these policies - which would have been divisive enough. The ongoing febrility injected by the police inquiry into SNP finances has only worsened matters.

[Zinneke]

https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1654086150884040705

Do you guys agree with Rob Ford here?

[CumbrianLefty]

I think that he isn't totally wrong, but also "its a bit more complicated than that".

If an incoming Labour (led) government is determined to build lots of new houses, they should still be able to get quite a lot done on that front in their first term.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Which government is in more of a mess at the moment - the Holyrood one or the Westminster one?

Can I write in the Stormont here?

[Battista Minola 1616]

Which government is in more of a mess at the moment - the Holyrood one or the Westminster one?

Can I write in the Stormont here?

But the Stormont government is the Westminster government...

[MABA 2020]

Which government is in more of a mess at the moment - the Holyrood one or the Westminster one?

At the moment Holyrood, but I'm sure the Tories can pull it back if they try

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Which government is in more of a mess at the moment - the Holyrood one or the Westminster one?

Can I write in the Stormont here?

But the Stormont government is the Westminster government...

What Stormont government?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But the Stormont government is the Westminster government...

Ah, well, yes and no and that's actually quite a big problem. They've not actually imposed Direct Rule yet, so instead there is this weird void in which no actual policies can be implemented and very little can be done.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

But the Stormont government is the Westminster government...

Ah, well, yes and no and that's actually quite a big problem. They've not actually imposed Direct Rule yet, so instead there is this weird void in which no actual policies can be implemented and very little can be done.

This makes me wonder how Labour would handle this...presuming Starmer wins in 2024.

[Torrain]

Which government is in more of a mess at the moment - the Holyrood one or the Westminster one?

Give us a week or two. Lets see how tonight's local elections go, and whether by-elections are called in Rutherglen and Uxbridge.

As a coalition/confidence-and-supply government that can be held hostage by 7-8 MSPs, with a major ongoing police investigation, Holyrood seems more febrile right now. But I hardly feel it's fair to imagine the Tories are going to meekly fall in line behind Sunak for the next 12-18 months, especially if this evening is bruising.

[Battista Minola 1616]

But the Stormont government is the Westminster government...

Ah, well, yes and no and that's actually quite a big problem. They've not actually imposed Direct Rule yet, so instead there is this weird void in which no actual policies can be implemented and very little can be done.

Oh well, that's true... I should have just said there is no "Stormont government".

[EastAnglianLefty]

But the Stormont government is the Westminster government...

Ah, well, yes and no and that's actually quite a big problem. They've not actually imposed Direct Rule yet, so instead there is this weird void in which no actual policies can be implemented and very little can be done.

Particularly problematic as Heaton-Harris is using this to impose a punishment budget in the hope that it forces the DUP back to the negotiating table, because he's bad at his job and doesn't realise that the DUP doesn't care about public services.

[Joe Republic]

So that just leaves the Senedd.  How's life there?

[CumbrianLefty]

So that just leaves the Senedd.  How's life there?

Pretty good, under Helmsman Drakeford's wise leadership

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/richardmorrisuk/status/1654809276794167299
Mordaunt accidentally ending up as the most prominent (and camp) member of the government at the Coronation wasn’t how I expected today to go.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

From an historical perspective, the prominent role played by a Cardinal in the ceremony is easily the most significant part and is the one thing that would have shocked people seventy years ago.

[CumbrianLefty]

Which government is in more of a mess at the moment - the Holyrood one or the Westminster one?

Give us a week or two. Lets see how tonight's local elections go, and whether by-elections are called in Rutherglen and Uxbridge.

As a coalition/confidence-and-supply government that can be held hostage by 7-8 MSPs, with a major ongoing police investigation, Holyrood seems more febrile right now. But I hardly feel it's fair to imagine the Tories are going to meekly fall in line behind Sunak for the next 12-18 months, especially if this evening is bruising.

Which it certainly was.

The attempts of the client courtier "journalists" to spin these results away are genuinely hilarious.

[Blair]

Yes it appears there was a valiant rear-guard effort last night to use the NVS figures to suggest Labour isn't going to win a majority (something that was taken as a granted by the same people really until the summer of '22!) and now it will be pretend the results haven't happened.

The interesting thing is that they have broadly accepted that it's Sunak or bust; this is no doubt helped by the fact that Sunak basically has a monopoly on the various power levers in the Conservative party and the press. 

There is also a rather baffling effort to claim he is much more popular or liked than KS; which all the polling shows is rubbish.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Which government is in more of a mess at the moment - the Holyrood one or the Westminster one?

Give us a week or two. Lets see how tonight's local elections go, and whether by-elections are called in Rutherglen and Uxbridge.

As a coalition/confidence-and-supply government that can be held hostage by 7-8 MSPs, with a major ongoing police investigation, Holyrood seems more febrile right now. But I hardly feel it's fair to imagine the Tories are going to meekly fall in line behind Sunak for the next 12-18 months, especially if this evening is bruising.

Which it certainly was.

The attempts of the client courtier "journalists" to spin these results away is genuinely hilarious.

As everyone knows,
"CON -22 in Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole"
Only something that was going to happen in the best of days for the Tory party, surely...

[Oryxslayer]

Yes it appears there was a valiant rear-guard effort last night to use the NVS figures to suggest Labour isn't going to win a majority (something that was taken as a granted by the same people really until the summer of '22!) and now it will be pretend the results haven't happened.

The best part of taking the NVS as an absolute truth is that the Tories are still going to get pushed well below 200 seats. Only difference is that and the models you can find easily enough online is that the Lib-Dems would have a massive seat count compared to now or any time in recent history.

Honestly, there is some truth in expecting the result to land in between the polling and the NVS, if nothing dramatically changes in outlook. The Conservatives are going to activate what voters they can  who are presently ambivalent, and pull back those who are presently responding Reform. That will net them enough voters to hold the seats online models suggest might go Labour right now, but you would never expect them to in a GE. But tactical voting and Lib-Dem focused targeting means they'll probably proceed to lose 20-30 seats to the Lib-Dems that weighted swing modeling can't pick up.

And obviously the worst case for Conservatives is the South and Southwest are just as Orange as they were a day ago, but the national vote is still just as red as polling suggests.

[JimJamUK]

The problem with NEV and PNS is that 40% of the vote is being estimated to go to parties other than Labour or the Conservatives. It was 20% at the last general election, and on current polling you’d expect about 25-30%. So that’s 10-15% of voters who would be switching back to the major 2 parties and they do not look particularly Conservative inclined to say the least (there’s also the fact the general election electorate will look different to the one last week, in a way that’s probably more favourable to Labour and most definitely less favourable to the Lib Dems).

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, local election voters definitely skew older - and we know what that has meant in recent years.

[John Dule]

Did you see that ludicrous display last night?