UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[Torrain]

Zahawi's ability to utter complete rubbish with a totally poker face is one of his main strengths tbf.

It's his primary political attribute at this point. 100% he's the one who's lined up by the party to go on the BBC at 10.02pm on election night in 2024 to explain the exit poll.

[Torrain]

So, one of the major pieces of business this week is the SNP Annual General Meeting, to be held on Tuesday - where a new Westminster leader will be chosen. I'm not exactly an SNP guy, so happy to defer to Afleitch if there are any major omissions here. Trying out the spoiler function, so this doesn't become a wall of text.

Best we can tell at present, it's shaped up as a race between Stephen Flynn (Aberdeen South) and Alison Thewliss (Glasgow Central):

Spoiler alert: Stephen Flynn

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Flynn has sat in Westminster since 2019, and has established a media profile in the past couple of years.

He puts in decent performances on panel shows like R4's Any Questions, is far less bombastic than Blackford within the Commons chamber, but comes across as a little more incisive. It's understood that he's got the support of current SNP Chief Whip Owen Thompson, but is otherwise running with the support of disenchanted backbenchers, and would radically shake up the SNP frontbench.

Flynn remains undeclared, but picked up enough support to force out Blackford, and is widely assumed to be the de-facto frontruner. Until Thewliss declared over the weekend, it was expected he would be coronated, Sunak-style, on Tuesday.

Spoiler alert: Alison Thewliss

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Thewliss is the unexpected candidate, who has made her name as the Shadow Chancellor/Treasury Spokeswoman for the SNP. Her hobbies include economics, and colour-coordination:

She is running based on her shadow cabinet role, and to "draw a clear contrast with the two men shouting across the ballot box at each other at PMQs". She's more experienced than Flynn, having served as an MP since 2015 (when she defeated future Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar), but it is unclear whether she has gathered enough voters to best him.

Her most high-profile supporter appears to be SNP Shadow Home Affairs Spokesman Stuart MacDonald, and Pete Wishart, the longest-serving SNP MP, Chair of the Scottish Affairs Committee, and former member of Gaelic rock band Runrig.

Spoiler alert: WWSD? (What Will Sturgeon Do?)

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It's unclear what Sturgeon will do in the race. She didn't support Blackford in his 2017 run for Westminster Leader - preferring North East Fife's then-MP Stephen Gethins (who she put considerable resources into defending in both the 2017 and 2019 elections. Certainly, she's got a rocky relationship with Flynn, who's openly criticised her for opposing new oil or gas licences in Scottish waters (Flynn's Aberdeen seat has a large number of current and former oilmen).

Furthermore, Sturgeon intervened to save Blackford, but appears to have only bought him a couple of weeks, rather than months - which has strengthened characterisations of Flynn as a Sturgeon opponent. This has been further reinforced by the apparent closeness of Flynn and Sturgeon-opponent Joanna Cherry (fired from the SNP frontbench by Blackford, expected to return if Flynn wins). Cherry is known for socialising with Alex Salmond and JK Rowling, neither of whom hold anything but antipathy for the First Minister.

I'm not sure how close Thewliss and Sturgeon are, but it's hard to see her as enthusiastic about Flynn. I think the big question is whether she has the political capital to throw her weight behind a candidate who might not beat the frontrunner, given the murmurs about her own future over the past few months.

If Sturgeon supports Flynn before the AGM, I'd assume he'd already have the numbers to win. And if Thewliss wins, I'd expect Sturgeon will have called in some favours.

Spoiler alert: Electoral implications for candidates in 2024

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Worth noting that electorally, both hold seats with a majority under 4,000 votes. Thewliss is at more imminent risk, as her seat has Labour in a solid second place, projected to defeat her in most projections over the past three months. Flynn isn't safe, but Aberdeen South has flipped from it's historic Labour-Tory marginal status to an SNP-Tory marginal, so he's far more likely to win re-election, barring a sudden realignment.

[EastAnglianLefty]

I had assumed that as it was Aberdeen South (wealthy and with quite a high unionist floor, similar in some respects to posher bits of Edinburgh) Flynn was vulnerable. I hadn't quite grasped how badly Labour cratered there in 2019. It's still more likely to flip than North (where the basic demographics are much better for the SNP, even if the boundary changes aren't helpful) but I suspect the next election is more likely to be revolve around unionism trying to coalesce behind a viable challenger there.

[Torrain]

I had assumed that as it was Aberdeen South (wealthy and with quite a high unionist floor, similar in some respects to posher bits of Edinburgh) Flynn was vulnerable. I hadn't quite grasped how badly Labour cratered there in 2019. It's still more likely to flip than North (where the basic demographics are much better for the SNP, even if the boundary changes aren't helpful) but I suspect the next election is more likely to be revolve around unionism trying to coalesce behind a viable challenger there.

It's going to be an interesting one. My assumption has been that the serious decline in Tory fortunes will impact tactical voting with Tories seats like Moray, West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine, and Dumfries and Galloway already essentially lost, and putting highly marginal SNP-Tory marginals like Gordon out of play. The question at the moment is whether Conservative seats like Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk and Banff and Buchan will be saved by the tactical vote (I think there's a fair chance (although no certainty) they'll scrape by).

It's clear Labour will pick up *some* seats, but feels like it could be anywhere between 3 and 30 in this environment.

There's also a big question mark over whether seats like Stirling (fits a very specific profile: Tory pre-1997, Labour through the Blair years, SNP in 2015, Tory in 2017, SNP in 2019) are in play. Will Labour be able to put them into contention, or are they now exclusively Yellow-Blue marginals?

[NewYorkExpress]

Labour is pledging to abolish the House of Lords.

Britain’s opposition Labour party has promised to scrap the unelected and “indefensible” House of Lords as part of a constitutional revamp to redistribute economic growth after Brexit.

Labour looks set to take power in the next election, due by January 2025, streaking far ahead of the governing Conservatives in opinion polls after a tumultuous period politically and economically.

.....
The blueprint is not yet Labour policy. It now goes to public consultation, with agreed changes set to be incorporated into the party’s next election manifesto.

Starmer said he hoped to push through the eventual reforms within the first five years of a Labour government, possibly including the redeployment of 50,000 civil service jobs out of London.

Tackling widespread public disgust with perceived malpractice in parliament, the proposals would clamp down on MPs holding second jobs and create a new anti-corruption commissioner.

The 40-point plan’s centrepiece is to scrap the upper house of parliament in its current guise – which is a mixture of political appointees, hereditary peers and Church of England bishops.


“I think the House of Lords is indefensible. Anybody who looks at the House of Lords would struggle to say that it should be kept,” Starmer told BBC television.


“So we want to abolish the House of Lords and replace it with an elected chamber that has a really strong mission.”

[Torrain]

Small polling landmark today:
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1599810838734462976

[Torrain]

SNP leadership election results expected 7-8pm.

Flynn started out as frontrunner, but his choice of Mhairi Black as his running mate appears to have ruffled feathers, and lost him some votes. Thewliss, now bearing the mantle of de facto pro-Sturgeon candidate has picked the more low-key Stuart MacDonald (SNP Shadow Home Sec) as her running mate.

Whispers that Thewliss may now be slightly favoured, and the race is expected to be close.

[CumbrianLefty]

Small polling landmark today:
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1599810838734462976

In all of 2022, there has been a single poll (soon after the Russian invasion of Ukraine) that showed a tie - every other one has shown a Labour lead (varying between 1 and 39 points, mind)

[afleitch]

SNP leadership election results expected 7-8pm.

Flynn started out as frontrunner, but his choice of Mhairi Black as his running mate appears to have ruffled feathers, and lost him some votes. Thewliss, now bearing the mantle of de facto pro-Sturgeon candidate has picked the more low-key Stuart MacDonald (SNP Shadow Home Sec) as her running mate.

Whispers that Thewliss may now be slightly favoured, and the race is expected to be close.

In the end Flynn won. Mhairi Black as Depute has indeed ruffled feathers and is a shot across the bow towards a certain clique

[Zinneke]

What makes Mhairi Black ruffle feathers?

[afleitch]

What makes Mhairi Black ruffle feathers?

She's an outspoken trans inclusive lesbian feminist.

[Torrain]

Hancock standing down. Rumours that his media round is to test the waters for a London Mayoral bid - which, lmao.

[CumbrianLefty]

What makes Mhairi Black ruffle feathers?

She's an outspoken trans inclusive lesbian feminist.

And also (still) *very* young, which not everybody - including in her own colleagues - will like.

[EastAnglianLefty]

What makes Mhairi Black ruffle feathers?

She's an outspoken trans inclusive lesbian feminist.

Presumably this suggests that Flynn is not actually on particularly good terms with Cherry?

[CumbrianLefty]

Is anybody save her GC cronies tbf?

She had a face like thunder in the collective MPs pic after this election.

[Torrain]

What makes Mhairi Black ruffle feathers?

She's an outspoken trans inclusive lesbian feminist.

Presumably this suggests that Flynn is not actually on particularly good terms with Cherry?

Cherry was tipped to get her old job (SNP Shadow Home Sec) back under a Flynn leadership, and supposedly was one of his first backers (although that’s probably more about spiting Sturgeon than anything else). It’s possible she was one of the MPs who briefed to BBC Scotland that they couldn’t support Flynn any longer, after he picked Black as his depute.

She ruled out returning to the frontbench this morning, which is no huge surprise, given Black’s new role. Certainly, it’s hard to see the two of them sitting amicably around the same cabinet table, after the clash they had over Flow Job.

[afleitch]

Also

https://mobile.twitter.com/rosscolquhoun/status/1600461810473357312

[Cassius]

Also

https://mobile.twitter.com/rosscolquhoun/status/1600461810473357312

Interesting, very out of kilter with most recent opinion polling if accurate.

[afleitch]

Also

https://mobile.twitter.com/rosscolquhoun/status/1600461810473357312

Interesting, very out of kilter with most recent opinion polling if accurate.

There hasn't been much, other than from Redfield etc which was their first Scottish poll. But even they showed a Yes lead.

[Blair]

Seb Payne, or the FT, is joining a Tory think tank as director.

No huge surprise he is a Tory ofc. Have never thought his journalism was as good as the whole of the lobby seems to think…

[YL]

Hancock standing down. Rumours that his media round is to test the waters for a London Mayoral bid - which, lmao.

Given that the officers of his local Conservative Association voted no confidence in him and asked that the whip not be restored, I think this is jumping before he was pushed.

His letter to Sunak suggests he won't now try to get the whip back and will remain an independent MP for the rest of the Parliament.

[MaxQue]

Also

https://mobile.twitter.com/rosscolquhoun/status/1600461810473357312

Interesting, very out of kilter with most recent opinion polling if accurate.

From someone from Quebec, totally expected after that Court decision. Being told by a court "no, you can't do that, only the central government can" is one of the greatest fuels for independentism.

[Silent Hunter]

Another MP (Labour this time) gets suspended from their parliamentary party

[Torrain]

Another MP has had the whip removed:
https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1600624399476047876

[Silent Hunter]

Two in one day? For misconduct? When was the last time that happened?