2023 Chicago Mayoral/Aldermanic Elections

[wbrocks67]

Do we expect Lightfoot to make an endorsement?

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I’ve said this in other threads, but comparing teachers unions to police unions is such bad faith or ignorant. Yea, teachers unions can prevent bad teachers from being fired, but they don’t protect murderers and domestic abusers

[Death of a Salesman]

I think people are severely underrating Johnson. In the first round, Vallas's coalition was Republicans, low college whites, and some Hispanics while Johnson's was high college whites and some blacks. It seems obvious to me that the latter has more upside; the only real question is whether that upside is enough to overcome a 14 point deficit. Here, I think, are some of the keys:

This is not accurate. Among white voters, Vallas support wasn't negatively correlated with education. Vallas did well with affluent white voters and Republicans and poorly with middle-class Democrats. He basically got the Bruce Rauner coalition.

[kwabbit]

I think people are severely underrating Johnson. In the first round, Vallas's coalition was Republicans, low college whites, and some Hispanics while Johnson's was high college whites and some blacks. It seems obvious to me that the latter has more upside; the only real question is whether that upside is enough to overcome a 14 point deficit. Here, I think, are some of the keys:

1. A core part of Lightfoot's pitch was racial solidarity as opposed to ideology, and to a limited extent it seems to have worked. Now that she's eliminated, though, I think it's pretty clear that Johnson will take the lion's share of those voters for the same reason. This is especially true because Vallas broadly did pretty poorly in these areas.

2. Wilson's voters are a bit more of a question mark because of how conservative he is. I tend to think they'll broadly go to Johnson too, but if he does endorse Vallas that could matter.

3. Garcia obviously won't endorse Vallas, but Vallas was pretty strong among Hispanics, at least relatively speaking. Then again, you could argue that perhaps many conservative Hispanics selfselected into the Vallas camp in the first round already. Again, I think it will matter if Garcia endorses Johnson.

4. Turnout will probably go up in the runoff, which I suspect will benefit Johnson somewhat.

Vallas dominated the Magnificent Mile, winning most of the downtown area easily. Vallas is not just winning Republicans and ethnic Whites. He's obviously doing very well among the wealthy and educated Whites that live in these neighborhoods. It's more fair to say that Johnson is winning the progressive neighborhoods on the North Side while Vallas is winning the business oriented downtown neighborhoods.

If this was NYC, Vallas would be winning FiDi and the Upper East Side. Johnson might be winning Park Slope. It's not a Johnson sweep.

[Mr. Illini]

Do we expect Lightfoot to make an endorsement?

I’d be surprised if she did tbh. I think she hates both of them, and I don’t think either of them will come calling for her nod.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Do we expect Lightfoot to make an endorsement?

I’d be surprised if she did tbh. I think she hates both of them, and I don’t think either of them will come calling for her nod.

Yeah, I think if a mayor is unpopular enough to face a primary challenge and then lose? I wouldn't want her endorsement, that's for sure.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I find it fascinating that everyone on the political spectrum (conservatives, centrists, liberals) are celebrating the defeat of Lightfoot. When was the last time something like this happened?

[Death of a Salesman]

I think people are severely underrating Johnson. In the first round, Vallas's coalition was Republicans, low college whites, and some Hispanics while Johnson's was high college whites and some blacks. It seems obvious to me that the latter has more upside; the only real question is whether that upside is enough to overcome a 14 point deficit. Here, I think, are some of the keys:

1. A core part of Lightfoot's pitch was racial solidarity as opposed to ideology, and to a limited extent it seems to have worked. Now that she's eliminated, though, I think it's pretty clear that Johnson will take the lion's share of those voters for the same reason. This is especially true because Vallas broadly did pretty poorly in these areas.

2. Wilson's voters are a bit more of a question mark because of how conservative he is. I tend to think they'll broadly go to Johnson too, but if he does endorse Vallas that could matter.

3. Garcia obviously won't endorse Vallas, but Vallas was pretty strong among Hispanics, at least relatively speaking. Then again, you could argue that perhaps many conservative Hispanics selfselected into the Vallas camp in the first round already. Again, I think it will matter if Garcia endorses Johnson.

4. Turnout will probably go up in the runoff, which I suspect will benefit Johnson somewhat.

Vallas dominated the Magnificent Mile, winning most of the downtown area easily. Vallas is not just winning Republicans and ethnic Whites. He's obviously doing very well among the wealthy and educated Whites that live in these neighborhoods. It's more fair to say that Johnson is winning the progressive neighborhoods on the North Side while Vallas is winning the business oriented downtown neighborhoods.

If this was NYC, Vallas would be winning FiDi and the Upper East Side. Johnson might be winning Park Slope. It's not a Johnson sweep.

The New York City equivalent is Garcia v. Wiley.

[Oryxslayer]

Do we expect Lightfoot to make an endorsement?

I’d be surprised if she did tbh. I think she hates both of them, and I don’t think either of them will come calling for her nod.

Yeah, I think if a mayor is unpopular enough to face a primary challenge and then lose? I wouldn't want her endorsement, that's for sure.

If anything, each candidate would respond to her hypothetical phone calls telling her to endorse the other. There's also a line of thought that she offers Vallas a foothold in the African American neighborhoods, so maybe he would accept the endorsement. But I still think mutual rejection will keep her on the sidelines.

[TML]

I find it fascinating that everyone on the political spectrum (conservatives, centrists, liberals) are celebrating the defeat of Lightfoot. When was the last time something like this happened?

I believe this is the byproduct of Lightfoot's repeated alienation of would-be political allies. Off the top of my head, the last time something like this happened was Eliot Spitzer - his alienation of his would-be allies in the Democratic Party left him fending for himself when his prostitution scandal broke, and his political career was thus unable to withstand that scandal.

[Death of a Salesman]

Do we expect Lightfoot to make an endorsement?

I’d be surprised if she did tbh. I think she hates both of them, and I don’t think either of them will come calling for her nod.

Yeah, I think if a mayor is unpopular enough to face a primary challenge and then lose? I wouldn't want her endorsement, that's for sure.

If anything, each candidate would respond to her hypothetical phone calls telling her to endorse the other. There's also a line of thought that she offers Vallas a foothold in the African American neighborhoods, so maybe he would accept the endorsement. But I still think mutual rejection will keep her on the sidelines.

Wilson and Garcia are the actually valuable endorsements, Lightfoot is so unpopular among non-black voters that her endorsement would lose that candidate votes.  

[Tintrlvr]

I think people are severely underrating Johnson. In the first round, Vallas's coalition was Republicans, low college whites, and some Hispanics while Johnson's was high college whites and some blacks. It seems obvious to me that the latter has more upside; the only real question is whether that upside is enough to overcome a 14 point deficit. Here, I think, are some of the keys:

1. A core part of Lightfoot's pitch was racial solidarity as opposed to ideology, and to a limited extent it seems to have worked. Now that she's eliminated, though, I think it's pretty clear that Johnson will take the lion's share of those voters for the same reason. This is especially true because Vallas broadly did pretty poorly in these areas.

2. Wilson's voters are a bit more of a question mark because of how conservative he is. I tend to think they'll broadly go to Johnson too, but if he does endorse Vallas that could matter.

3. Garcia obviously won't endorse Vallas, but Vallas was pretty strong among Hispanics, at least relatively speaking. Then again, you could argue that perhaps many conservative Hispanics selfselected into the Vallas camp in the first round already. Again, I think it will matter if Garcia endorses Johnson.

4. Turnout will probably go up in the runoff, which I suspect will benefit Johnson somewhat.

Vallas dominated the Magnificent Mile, winning most of the downtown area easily. Vallas is not just winning Republicans and ethnic Whites. He's obviously doing very well among the wealthy and educated Whites that live in these neighborhoods. It's more fair to say that Johnson is winning the progressive neighborhoods on the North Side while Vallas is winning the business oriented downtown neighborhoods.

If this was NYC, Vallas would be winning FiDi and the Upper East Side. Johnson might be winning Park Slope. It's not a Johnson sweep.

The New York City equivalent is Garcia v. Wiley.

This is superficially true, although Garcia had more progressive support than Vallas (was generally in a close second to Wiley in places like Park Slope) and was noticeably to the left of Vallas (though also in a slightly different political environment).

I don't think that comparison is terribly flattering to Brandon Johnson's chances in the runoff, but we'll see.

[President Johnson]

I just realized Lightfoot lost... lmao. Wasn't Paul Vallas the running mate of the People's Pat in 2014?

[Bismarck]

Do we know what the ethnic breakdown of voters was? Not the result but just the makeup of the electorate?

[Mr. Illini]

I find it fascinating that everyone on the political spectrum (conservatives, centrists, liberals) are celebrating the defeat of Lightfoot. When was the last time something like this happened?

He didn’t lose reelection, but people on all sides hated Bill DeBlasio.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I just realized Lightfoot lost... lmao. Wasn't Paul Vallas the running mate of the People's Pat in 2014?

Yea

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I find it fascinating that everyone on the political spectrum (conservatives, centrists, liberals) are celebrating the defeat of Lightfoot. When was the last time something like this happened?

Hochul is on her way there if she’s not already

[John Forbes Kerrygold 🧈]

I find it fascinating that everyone on the political spectrum (conservatives, centrists, liberals) are celebrating the defeat of Lightfoot. When was the last time something like this happened?

The media conversation today has been "she lost because of crime, she lost because of Covid, she lost because of this issue/that issue..." But very little coverage is being given to the simple fact that she mostly lost just because she sucks and everyone hates her.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Vallas also originated and supported a proposal to reallocate money earmarked for teacher pensions into a general operating budget, which, alongside a decrease in returns from the stock market and an increasing number of retirees caused CPS to be unable to make their full payments on time in later years. This has been identified as an inciting incident for the subsequent $1 billion budget crisis, attributed largely to spiking pension payments in later years.

As CEO, he presided over the nation's largest experiment in privatized management of schools, with the management of over 40 schools turned over to outside for-profits, nonprofits, and universities beginning in Fall 2002.

Chicago Republican Party Chair Chris Cleveland called Vallas the "lesser of 13 evils." Vallas welcomed the endorsement, commenting, "This is a non-partisan election and I'm running for mayor to represent all Chicagoans. I've traveled to every ward and met with every constituency. The crisis that Chicago faces affects all citizens. I thank the Republican committee for their confidence in my candidacy." Former Republican governor Bruce Rauner commented in an interview that, of those running, Vallas, "might make the best mayor."

Yeaaah, in addition to his multiple gaffes (Freudian slips?) during the race itself and all of this and I'm absolutely convinced that anyone backing Vallas would've been fine with electing another Bloomberg type mayor in Chicago as the man is clearly in Democratic politics simply cause it's Chicago. I hope the city doesn't fall for it.

[Death of a Salesman]

Vallas also originated and supported a proposal to reallocate money earmarked for teacher pensions into a general operating budget, which, alongside a decrease in returns from the stock market and an increasing number of retirees caused CPS to be unable to make their full payments on time in later years. This has been identified as an inciting incident for the subsequent $1 billion budget crisis, attributed largely to spiking pension payments in later years.

As CEO, he presided over the nation's largest experiment in privatized management of schools, with the management of over 40 schools turned over to outside for-profits, nonprofits, and universities beginning in Fall 2002.

Chicago Republican Party Chair Chris Cleveland called Vallas the "lesser of 13 evils." Vallas welcomed the endorsement, commenting, "This is a non-partisan election and I'm running for mayor to represent all Chicagoans. I've traveled to every ward and met with every constituency. The crisis that Chicago faces affects all citizens. I thank the Republican committee for their confidence in my candidacy." Former Republican governor Bruce Rauner commented in an interview that, of those running, Vallas, "might make the best mayor."

Yeaaah, in addition to his multiple gaffes (Freudian slips?) during the race itself and all of this and I'm absolutely convinced that anyone backing Vallas would've been fine with electing another Bloomberg type mayor in Chicago as the man is clearly in Democratic politics simply cause it's Chicago. I hope the city doesn't fall for it.

None of this is news. No one is voting for Vallas because he's the real liberal in the race.

[Suburbia]

Cities need a Giuliani/Bloomberg/Riordan/Schundler type sometimes.....Democratic policies lead to problems sometimes, you need balance, but you don't need stop and frisk and 41 bullets at unarmed people, etc.

Vallas needs to attract black men, especially older black men

[muon2]

Vallas also originated and supported a proposal to reallocate money earmarked for teacher pensions into a general operating budget, which, alongside a decrease in returns from the stock market and an increasing number of retirees caused CPS to be unable to make their full payments on time in later years. This has been identified as an inciting incident for the subsequent $1 billion budget crisis, attributed largely to spiking pension payments in later years.

As CEO, he presided over the nation's largest experiment in privatized management of schools, with the management of over 40 schools turned over to outside for-profits, nonprofits, and universities beginning in Fall 2002.

Chicago Republican Party Chair Chris Cleveland called Vallas the "lesser of 13 evils." Vallas welcomed the endorsement, commenting, "This is a non-partisan election and I'm running for mayor to represent all Chicagoans. I've traveled to every ward and met with every constituency. The crisis that Chicago faces affects all citizens. I thank the Republican committee for their confidence in my candidacy." Former Republican governor Bruce Rauner commented in an interview that, of those running, Vallas, "might make the best mayor."

Yeaaah, in addition to his multiple gaffes (Freudian slips?) during the race itself and all of this and I'm absolutely convinced that anyone backing Vallas would've been fine with electing another Bloomberg type mayor in Chicago as the man is clearly in Democratic politics simply cause it's Chicago. I hope the city doesn't fall for it.

He's been a Dem in IL politics for over 20 years. In 2002 he ran as a Dem for Governor. He narrowly lost the primary to then US Rep Rod Blagojevich in a three way race including former AG Roland Burris (36.6-34.5-29.0). Vallas ran as a technocrat on his then positive record running the Chicago schools and carried Cook county. Blago won by running the table in more conservative downstate IL. IL would have had a far different history had that primary gone the other way.

[indietraveler]

I wish we had ranked choice voting for this. I debated on voting for who I actually wanted (which is what I did) vs. voting for one of the frontrunners. Not crazy about either choice - my mind could change by the runoff, but I had already been playing different scenarios of who I would be supporting in different runoff combos.

I think this could be close. Vallas got stronger support than I was expecting in the densely populated Loop and immediate surrounding areas.

Johnson obviously has more potential for outreach but has a bigger hill to climb.

I'm not convinced Wilson's supporters go to Johnson just based on race. He was clearly the furthest right and if you were going to vote based on race you had plenty of other options to choose from.

This election probably comes down to Garcia voters. Interestingly, Garcia is closer to Johnson than Vallas on the issues but Vallas ran a strong second in the wards Garcia won.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Mayor Paul Vallas will clean up the city like Mayor Daley and win even blk warde he isn't losing

[iceman]

good riddance!!! this is what you get for pushing identity politics and trying to parade woke first-time achievements over competence and credentials