2023 Chicago Mayoral/Aldermanic Elections

[Gracile]

Daniel La Spata is now above 50% with late ballots coming in. He may avoid a runoff, but too early to say.

[warandwar]

The guy got less than half percent. So I'm not sure this is a game changer.

Even discounting that he was a candidate, a black south side alderman is still a major get. Especially since, as noted upthread, Johnson at minimum needs to keep the black vote fairly strongly on his side to even have a chance at competing in the runoff.

Also worth noting sawyer’s father was mayor of Chicago after Washington so he’s got some decent south side pedigree

Davis has actual pedigree and sway that Sawyer lacks. Much bigger get.

[Mr. Illini]

Johnson seems to be winning the late mail ballots. This is like the 3rd batch of late votes he’s won.

https://twitter.com/asinmarx/status/1632891540145152001?s=46&t=cnaSCfvIMWiF0...

How many of these kinds of ballots are there?

They've counted 44,645 since 3/2 and reported around 130K still needed to be counted before hand.

Vallas now down to 33.0%, Johnson up to 21.6%. Vallas may dip to 31-32 while Johnson could jump to 22-23 when all is said and done.

Johnson's Northside blob and his Hyde Park blog keep getting bigger as more votes are counted.

https://twitter.com/FrankCalabrese/status/1633122330624000001?s=20

What does the blue mean? Votes for Chicago's homemade version of Bronz.
What does the green mean? Well, that's most black precincts in the city.
What does the orange mean? That's most Latino precincts in the city.
But,
What does the red mean?

The most progressive white people.

These are also some of the most desegregated neighborhoods in the city.

Ah, yes, white hipsters moving into Logan Square and pushing real Chicagoans out. How wonderful. I’m sure they all voted for Brandon Johnson.

[kwabbit]

https://www.1983labs.com/chicago-runoff

First poll has Vallas 43.5, Johnson 32.5. Vallas in the left, Johnson in the right.

White- 49/25
Black- 33/50
Hispanic- 50/19
Asian- 69/26
Two/Other- 26/38

HS- 49/30
Some College- 45/25
Bach- 37/49
Grad- 48/27

18-29- 45/35
30-44- 29/58
45-64- 48/27
65+- 49/29

Chuy- 31/35
Lighfoot- 27/33
Wilson- 45/20

[Gracile]

I have a hard time seeing how Vallas isn't the strong favorite heading into the runoff.

[Bismarck]

https://www.1983labs.com/chicago-runoff

First poll has Vallas 43.5, Johnson 32.5. Vallas in the left, Johnson in the right.

White- 49/25
Black- 33/50
Hispanic- 50/19
Asian- 69/26
Two/Other- 26/38

HS- 49/30
Some College- 45/25
Bach- 37/49
Grad- 48/27

18-29- 45/35
30-44- 29/58
45-64- 48/27
65+- 49/29

Chuy- 31/35
Lighfoot- 27/33
Wilson- 45/20

Great poll for Vallas. Looks like the racial polarization is less than some expected. Vallas is cleaning up with the Asian community. Sad to see that my demographic (youngish college educated people) seems to be the base for the pro crime candidate. 

[beaver2.0]

Vallas now endorsed by Willie Wilson

[John Forbes Kerrygold 🧈]

Did anyone watch the debate? Brandon Johnson kept saying “Latinx” but pronouncing it “Latinik”? Is this another rose Twitter buzz phrase I’ve missed?

[Mr. Illini]

Did anyone watch the debate? Brandon Johnson kept saying “Latinx” but pronouncing it “Latinik”? Is this another rose Twitter buzz phrase I’ve missed?

I didn’t watch, but I heard Vallas attacked Johnson zero times. Not a good strategy, but very consistent  with his image as a policy wonk as opposed to an actual politician.

Of course, Johnson dug into him regardless.

[kwabbit]

Did anyone watch the debate? Brandon Johnson kept saying “Latinx” but pronouncing it “Latinik”? Is this another rose Twitter buzz phrase I’ve missed?

I didn’t watch, but I heard Vallas attacked Johnson zero times. Not a good strategy, but very consistent  with his image as a policy wonk as opposed to an actual politician.

Of course, Johnson dug into him regardless.

The moderator kept the candidates accountable so Vallas didn’t need to attack Johnson necessarily because the obvious flaws and damaging prior comments of both candidates were brought up. Johnson landed some attacks on Vallas, but I have no idea how effective they would be to the median voter. Do normal people care about Ken Griffin liking both DeSantis and Vallas?

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

https://twitter.com/jessiefor26th/status/1633577431574499328?s=46

[wbrocks67]

Has Johnson brought up Vallas's connection to Philly and his terrible handling? He would be a nightmare for public education.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Has Johnson brought up Vallas's connection to Philly and his terrible handling? He would be a nightmare for public education.

Johnson has no chance Jesse White endorsed Vallas and the reason why Lightfoot and Police Dept missed clues on the suspect killing the Police officer

[Sir Mohamed]

Vallas now endorsed by Willie Wilson

No joke, for a second I thought that was Willlie Horton and wondered how that would affect the campaign.

[kwabbit]

Has Johnson brought up Vallas's connection to Philly and his terrible handling? He would be a nightmare for public education.

Johnson would want to bring up Vallas’ tenure in CPS. I don’t think anyone in Chicago cares what he did in Philly when he already had the job in their own city. Besides, his tenure in New Orleans demonstrates a greater desire to privatize schools.

[wbrocks67]

A mess. In *chicago* no less!

https://twitter.com/ccadelago/status/1633929248036495365

[Suburbia]

He is a moderate white ethnic Democrat.....that is what he is...He is probably gonna win anyway because Chicago doesn't like crime.

If Johnson wins, the CPD goes on strike or there is a slowdown/exodus.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

He is a moderate white ethnic Democrat.....that is what he is...He is probably gonna win anyway because Chicago doesn't like crime.

If Johnson wins, the CPD goes on strike or there is a slowdown/exodus.

No, he’s a DINO Republican. 

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

I am still deeply suspicious of Vallas and fear that he will be a Thatchercrat in office, but Johnson did not do well at all in the debate last night. He came off as unprepared and inarticulate, and relied heavily on the "Vallas is a Republican" line. I think this line is risky for him, because while Vallas does sound conservative on crime, on everything else he gave relatively inoffensive answers.

Neither Vallas nor Johnson did exceptionally well in terms of actual content, but Vallas generally came off as composed and prepared, and given how things have gone in Chicago over the past few years, I think many voters will see Vallas as the "safe" option and this will be a No Experiments election result.

[GALeftist]

Johnson picked up Schakowsky (first round García supporter) while Vallas picked up Wilson’s endorsement. Don’t see any other relevant new endorsements.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/royalpratt/status/1634016826660200449?s=20

[Holmes]

If Johnson wins, the CPD goes on strike or there is a slowdown/exodus.

Great reason to vote for Johnson.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I still think Vallas wins.

Earlier I said that I would've voted for Johnson in the first round but after reviewing things a bit more I'm back to saying I would've voted for Garcia. Some of Johnson's proposals especially his transit tax one are complete non-starters for me.

But I'd still vote for him in the runoff because Vallas just sucks that much.

Why can't Chicago get even a good candidate for mayor? Even Garcia isn't great, he's just not terrible. I guess Preckwinkle was good but she also got blown out.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

At this point, what are the chances Vallas attended Jan 6th? Lmao. This guy is basically just your typical terrible Boomer Republican.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

The coming months are gonna be hard on Vallas as all his conservative rhetoric is going on trial in one of the most liberal cities in the country where Biden won every ward. This doesn’t mean that he’s out or that they’re aren’t conservative democrats in Chicago, they’re definitely are just look at Wilson’s numbers, but they’re not the majority.