2023 Chicago Mayoral/Aldermanic Elections

[Green Line]

I will be interested in seeing how Lightfoot's voter coalition shifts compared to 2019. Her strongest areas of support in the first round last time were some of the most heavily progressive wards whose voters I'd expect to be primed to go for Johnson or Garcia. My guess is she will put up a comparatively stronger performance in the black-majority wards and maybe places like River North/Streeterville, where there are more upscale, non-progressive whites (though Vallas may also have a strong showing here).

My impression is that the lakefront black wards (basically where Preckwinkle did best last time ironically) will be her best areas of the city.  I think she is a terrible fit for downtown/riv north but the fact that outside of Vallas there is no “moderate” or businessy Democrat means she will get 20% or so there perhaps (Im not counting Wilson as he is seen as a joke outside the black community).

My sense even before this poll was that Chuy is dropping rapidly as his campaign is awful.  At this point its a genuine 3 way tossup for the runoff between Chuy/Vallas/Johnson.

I will say though that Johnson running as the teachers union candidate is not as helpful as some here have implied.  The CTU is unpopular and that may be enough for him to scrape by with 20% or so into a runoff but I think he has a low ceiling.  The teachers union endorsements did Preckwinkle no good in 2019.

[Mr. Illini]

I will be interested in seeing how Lightfoot's voter coalition shifts compared to 2019. Her strongest areas of support in the first round last time were some of the most heavily progressive wards whose voters I'd expect to be primed to go for Johnson or Garcia. My guess is she will put up a comparatively stronger performance in the black-majority wards and maybe places like River North/Streeterville, where there are more upscale, non-progressive whites (though Vallas may also have a strong showing here).

My impression is that the lakefront black wards (basically where Preckwinkle did best last time ironically) will be her best areas of the city.  I think she is a terrible fit for downtown/riv north but the fact that outside of Vallas there is no “moderate” or businessy Democrat means she will get 20% or so there perhaps (Im not counting Wilson as he is seen as a joke outside the black community).

My sense even before this poll was that Chuy is dropping rapidly as his campaign is awful.  At this point its a genuine 3 way tossup for the runoff between Chuy/Vallas/Johnson.

I will say though that Johnson running as the teachers union candidate is not as helpful as some here have implied.  The CTU is unpopular and that may be enough for him to scrape by with 20% or so into a runoff but I think he has a low ceiling.  The teachers union endorsements did Preckwinkle no good in 2019.

Agree with all. Vallas is basically the Bill Daley of this cycle. He’ll win downtown and the bungalow areas on the outskirts.

Will be interesting to see who performs best on the north side. Lightfoot probably, I guess.

I don’t think Johnson wins much of anywhere.

[Illiniwek]

I will be interested in seeing how Lightfoot's voter coalition shifts compared to 2019. Her strongest areas of support in the first round last time were some of the most heavily progressive wards whose voters I'd expect to be primed to go for Johnson or Garcia. My guess is she will put up a comparatively stronger performance in the black-majority wards and maybe places like River North/Streeterville, where there are more upscale, non-progressive whites (though Vallas may also have a strong showing here).

My impression is that the lakefront black wards (basically where Preckwinkle did best last time ironically) will be her best areas of the city.  I think she is a terrible fit for downtown/riv north but the fact that outside of Vallas there is no “moderate” or businessy Democrat means she will get 20% or so there perhaps (Im not counting Wilson as he is seen as a joke outside the black community).

My sense even before this poll was that Chuy is dropping rapidly as his campaign is awful.  At this point its a genuine 3 way tossup for the runoff between Chuy/Vallas/Johnson.

I will say though that Johnson running as the teachers union candidate is not as helpful as some here have implied.  The CTU is unpopular and that may be enough for him to scrape by with 20% or so into a runoff but I think he has a low ceiling.  The teachers union endorsements did Preckwinkle no good in 2019.

Agree with all. Vallas is basically the Bill Daley of this cycle. He’ll win downtown and the bungalow areas on the outskirts.

Will be interesting to see who performs best on the north side. Lightfoot probably, I guess.

I don’t think Johnson wins much of anywhere.

Respectfully, I really just don't see where Lightfoot gets any impressive support. Who does she appeal to at this point? If her best support is 18% from black voters, I don't see where she is going to do consistently solid anywhere on the map.

[gerritcole]

who do republicans/conservatives vote for in Chicago mayoral elections

[Green Line]

who do republicans/conservatives vote for in Chicago mayoral elections

Conservatives will probably vote for Vallas, and to a lesser extent Chuy because he has high name rec as the Lightfoot alternative.  The Chicago Republican organization endorses Willie Wilson but they’re a joke and not even Republicans in the city care about their endorsement.

[kwabbit]

I will be interested in seeing how Lightfoot's voter coalition shifts compared to 2019. Her strongest areas of support in the first round last time were some of the most heavily progressive wards whose voters I'd expect to be primed to go for Johnson or Garcia. My guess is she will put up a comparatively stronger performance in the black-majority wards and maybe places like River North/Streeterville, where there are more upscale, non-progressive whites (though Vallas may also have a strong showing here).

My impression is that the lakefront black wards (basically where Preckwinkle did best last time ironically) will be her best areas of the city.  I think she is a terrible fit for downtown/riv north but the fact that outside of Vallas there is no “moderate” or businessy Democrat means she will get 20% or so there perhaps (Im not counting Wilson as he is seen as a joke outside the black community).

My sense even before this poll was that Chuy is dropping rapidly as his campaign is awful.  At this point its a genuine 3 way tossup for the runoff between Chuy/Vallas/Johnson.

I will say though that Johnson running as the teachers union candidate is not as helpful as some here have implied.  The CTU is unpopular and that may be enough for him to scrape by with 20% or so into a runoff but I think he has a low ceiling.  The teachers union endorsements did Preckwinkle no good in 2019.

Agree with all. Vallas is basically the Bill Daley of this cycle. He’ll win downtown and the bungalow areas on the outskirts.

Will be interesting to see who performs best on the north side. Lightfoot probably, I guess.

I don’t think Johnson wins much of anywhere.

Respectfully, I really just don't see where Lightfoot gets any impressive support. Who does she appeal to at this point? If her best support is 18% from black voters, I don't see where she is going to do consistently solid anywhere on the map.

Might Lightfoot overperform polling because of an incumbency factor? I imagine if that happened it would be most present in Black wards and maybe Hispanic wards.

[John Forbes Kerrygold 🧈]

So, about a month out, let's rate the chances Lori doesn't even make it into the runoff. Sure looks like it'd be that way if the election was held today. If that happens, I would think it would have to be a first.

[Mr. Illini]

I will be interested in seeing how Lightfoot's voter coalition shifts compared to 2019. Her strongest areas of support in the first round last time were some of the most heavily progressive wards whose voters I'd expect to be primed to go for Johnson or Garcia. My guess is she will put up a comparatively stronger performance in the black-majority wards and maybe places like River North/Streeterville, where there are more upscale, non-progressive whites (though Vallas may also have a strong showing here).

My impression is that the lakefront black wards (basically where Preckwinkle did best last time ironically) will be her best areas of the city.  I think she is a terrible fit for downtown/riv north but the fact that outside of Vallas there is no “moderate” or businessy Democrat means she will get 20% or so there perhaps (Im not counting Wilson as he is seen as a joke outside the black community).

My sense even before this poll was that Chuy is dropping rapidly as his campaign is awful.  At this point its a genuine 3 way tossup for the runoff between Chuy/Vallas/Johnson.

I will say though that Johnson running as the teachers union candidate is not as helpful as some here have implied.  The CTU is unpopular and that may be enough for him to scrape by with 20% or so into a runoff but I think he has a low ceiling.  The teachers union endorsements did Preckwinkle no good in 2019.

Agree with all. Vallas is basically the Bill Daley of this cycle. He’ll win downtown and the bungalow areas on the outskirts.

Will be interesting to see who performs best on the north side. Lightfoot probably, I guess.

I don’t think Johnson wins much of anywhere.

Respectfully, I really just don't see where Lightfoot gets any impressive support. Who does she appeal to at this point? If her best support is 18% from black voters, I don't see where she is going to do consistently solid anywhere on the map.

I think there’s a decent chance she does well among white liberals on the north side. No one likes her, but who else are they going for? Vallas is probably too conservative. Maybe Chuy, though he might be too liberal, and he’s focused his efforts in Latino wards.

I don’t know. I live on the north side and I don’t think people here like Lightfoot, but I think there’s a decent chance they come home to her without an intriguing alternative.

Combined with inner ring majority Black wards, it would be enough to get her to a runoff. And then against Chuy she easily picks up Vallas and Wilson voters.

Very similar path/coalition that Rahm and Daley had. Don’t count her out.

[Green Line]

Lightfoot internal:

https://twitter.com/craigrwall/status/1617630504047775744

Lightfoot -1, Vallas +8, Chuy -7, Johnson +5 from the internal she released last month.


In other news Brandon Johnson just released the most insane tax plan I've ever seen for a struggling city entering a recession.  A 3.5% "city income tax" on people making over 100k and a surcharge for taking Metra (which probably isn't legal anyway).  I guess he doesn't want more people taking public transit.

https://chicago.suntimes.com/city-hall/2023/1/23/23568177/mayoral-challenger-brandon-johnson-taxes-real-estate-financial-transactions

[Green Line]

I will be interested in seeing how Lightfoot's voter coalition shifts compared to 2019. Her strongest areas of support in the first round last time were some of the most heavily progressive wards whose voters I'd expect to be primed to go for Johnson or Garcia. My guess is she will put up a comparatively stronger performance in the black-majority wards and maybe places like River North/Streeterville, where there are more upscale, non-progressive whites (though Vallas may also have a strong showing here).

My impression is that the lakefront black wards (basically where Preckwinkle did best last time ironically) will be her best areas of the city.  I think she is a terrible fit for downtown/riv north but the fact that outside of Vallas there is no “moderate” or businessy Democrat means she will get 20% or so there perhaps (Im not counting Wilson as he is seen as a joke outside the black community).

My sense even before this poll was that Chuy is dropping rapidly as his campaign is awful.  At this point its a genuine 3 way tossup for the runoff between Chuy/Vallas/Johnson.

I will say though that Johnson running as the teachers union candidate is not as helpful as some here have implied.  The CTU is unpopular and that may be enough for him to scrape by with 20% or so into a runoff but I think he has a low ceiling.  The teachers union endorsements did Preckwinkle no good in 2019.

Agree with all. Vallas is basically the Bill Daley of this cycle. He’ll win downtown and the bungalow areas on the outskirts.

Will be interesting to see who performs best on the north side. Lightfoot probably, I guess.

I don’t think Johnson wins much of anywhere.

Respectfully, I really just don't see where Lightfoot gets any impressive support. Who does she appeal to at this point? If her best support is 18% from black voters, I don't see where she is going to do consistently solid anywhere on the map.

I think there’s a decent chance she does well among white liberals on the north side. No one likes her, but who else are they going for? Vallas is probably too conservative. Maybe Chuy, though he might be too liberal, and he’s focused his efforts in Latino wards.

I don’t know. I live on the north side and I don’t think people here like Lightfoot, but I think there’s a decent chance they come home to her without an intriguing alternative.

Combined with inner ring majority Black wards, it would be enough to get her to a runoff. And then against Chuy she easily picks up Vallas and Wilson voters.

Very similar path/coalition that Rahm and Daley had. Don’t count her out.

If Chuy makes it into the runoff I don't think he would have any trouble picking up Vallas and Wilson votes.  The bungalow belt isn't going for Lightfoot, period, unless somehow it was her and Johnson left.  I don't think many people see Chuy as too far left, he just seems kinda incompetent and is a running a blah compaign with no direction.  That all changes if he makes a runoff though, he will be the alternative to LLF and that is enough for most people.  Policy wise, from what you can ascertain from Chuy's vague statements, he is running to her right on public safety (or trying to - again the man has no true policies).

[Illiniwek]

Lightfoot internal:

https://twitter.com/craigrwall/status/1617630504047775744

Lightfoot -1, Vallas +8, Chuy -7, Johnson +5 from the internal she released last month.


In other news Brandon Johnson just released the most insane tax plan I've ever seen for a struggling city entering a recession.  A 3.5% "city income tax" on people making over 100k and a surcharge for taking Metra (which probably isn't legal anyway).  I guess he doesn't want more people taking public transit.

https://chicago.suntimes.com/city-hall/2023/1/23/23568177/mayoral-challenger-brandon-johnson-taxes-real-estate-financial-transactions

Would be interesting to know how this internal poll is framing the questions and if they are tilted to suggest to the respondent that she is the incumbent.

In other news Brandon Johnson just released the most insane tax plan I've ever seen for a struggling city entering a recession.  A 3.5% "city income tax" on people making over 100k and a surcharge for taking Metra (which probably isn't legal anyway).  I guess he doesn't want more people taking public transit.

Oh HECK no! Metra is expensive enough as it is.

[Suburbia]

How can Vallas win with police brutality back in the news?

It's most likely Johnson or Garcia that will win this thing

[Illiniwek]

How can Vallas win with police brutality back in the news?

It's most likely Johnson or Garcia that will win this thing

I went back and listened to an interview I heard him do in early 2022. At least at that time his point was that:
1. poor police leadership and organization leads to fewer police officers;
2. which leads to overworked and stressed out police officers;
3. which also leads to less appeal to apply to become a police officer;
4. which leads to poor candidates being hired because the high-quality candidates have no interest;
5. which results in poorly qualified candidates working long shifts in a poor mental state;
6. which finally leads to these worn down, poor quality cops either not doing their job or abusing their power.

I mean, as someone who has said "ACAB" previously, that message really resonated with me. There is a serious universal problem with racism in policing. But only focusing on that will not eradicate all the issues we face on that. Having high-quality cops who aren't overworked will help them do their jobs better and will help prevent nasty situations from unfolding.

Now, I don't know how well Vallas is doing in getting the position that I received well out to the voting public. But if he is doing that well, then I think recent events won't negatively affect him.

[Suburbia]

How can Vallas win with police brutality back in the news?

It's most likely Johnson or Garcia that will win this thing

I went back and listened to an interview I heard him do in early 2022. At least at that time his point was that:
1. poor police leadership and organization leads to fewer police officers;
2. which leads to overworked and stressed out police officers;
3. which also leads to less appeal to apply to become a police officer;
4. which leads to poor candidates being hired because the high-quality candidates have no interest;
5. which results in poorly qualified candidates working long shifts in a poor mental state;
6. which finally leads to these worn down, poor quality cops either not doing their job or abusing their power.

I mean, as someone who has said "ACAB" previously, that message really resonated with me. There is a serious universal problem with racism in policing. But only focusing on that will not eradicate all the issues we face on that. Having high-quality cops who aren't overworked will help them do their jobs better and will help prevent nasty situations from unfolding.

Now, I don't know how well Vallas is doing in getting the position that I received well out to the voting public. But if he is doing that well, then I think recent events won't negatively affect him.

Which means he probably will fire David Brown, who was actually better in Dallas than he was in Chicago.

He can't hire a white guy like Ray Kelly or Garry McCarthy, he has to hire someone who can relate to people.

[Torie]

Why was Lightfoot a fail as Mayor?  Just curious. I actually voted for the legendary Mayor Daily once. He made the trains run on time - sort of. The Pubs back then, as I guess now, were quite a the pathetic lot in both Illinois and Chicago.  My precinct voted 91-9 for McGovern. I voted for Nixon of course, knowing he was probably a crook. I turned the machine lever wearing a Nixon button. That was fun.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Why was Lightfoot a fail as Mayor?  Just curious. I actually voted for the legendary Mayor Daily once. He made the trains run on time - sort of. The Pubs back then, as I guess now, were quite a the pathetic lot in both Illinois and Chicago.  My precinct voted 91-9 for McGovern. I voted for Nixon of course, knowing he was probably a crook. I turned the machine lever wearing a Nixon button. That was fun.

She has generally been ineffective and unable to find allies in the council making it impossible for her to get anything done. She doesn’t seem to know if she wants to be a progressive or just more mainstream liberal and keeps wavering between the two making both sides unhappy with her.

[Mr. Illini]

Why was Lightfoot a fail as Mayor?  Just curious. I actually voted for the legendary Mayor Daily once. He made the trains run on time - sort of. The Pubs back then, as I guess now, were quite a the pathetic lot in both Illinois and Chicago.  My precinct voted 91-9 for McGovern. I voted for Nixon of course, knowing he was probably a crook. I turned the machine lever wearing a Nixon button. That was fun.

She is extremely confrontational and comes off as arrogant. This really helped her in 2019 because she was unknown and was hitting at establishment figures that people were sick of.

It has made it really difficult for her to govern, however. Especially as it’s been a rough few years with Covid and rising crime, the confrontational attitude hasn’t helped.

It’s also making it difficult for her to run for re-election. She is physically incapable of inspiring people. All she knows is how to fight. It’s not a way to run a re-election campaign.

Interesting parallels to Trump, I realize as I am typing it out.

[Oppo]

How can Vallas win with police brutality back in the news?

It's most likely Johnson or Garcia that will win this thing

I went back and listened to an interview I heard him do in early 2022. At least at that time his point was that:
1. poor police leadership and organization leads to fewer police officers;
2. which leads to overworked and stressed out police officers;
3. which also leads to less appeal to apply to become a police officer;
4. which leads to poor candidates being hired because the high-quality candidates have no interest;
5. which results in poorly qualified candidates working long shifts in a poor mental state;
6. which finally leads to these worn down, poor quality cops either not doing their job or abusing their power.

I mean, as someone who has said "ACAB" previously, that message really resonated with me. There is a serious universal problem with racism in policing. But only focusing on that will not eradicate all the issues we face on that. Having high-quality cops who aren't overworked will help them do their jobs better and will help prevent nasty situations from unfolding.

Now, I don't know how well Vallas is doing in getting the position that I received well out to the voting public. But if he is doing that well, then I think recent events won't negatively affect him.

vallas is going to win back the left by reposting the pasolini poem sympathizing with police officers

[John Forbes Kerrygold 🧈]

Why was Lightfoot a fail as Mayor?  Just curious. I actually voted for the legendary Mayor Daily once. He made the trains run on time - sort of. The Pubs back then, as I guess now, were quite a the pathetic lot in both Illinois and Chicago.  My precinct voted 91-9 for McGovern. I voted for Nixon of course, knowing he was probably a crook. I turned the machine lever wearing a Nixon button. That was fun.

She is extremely confrontational and comes off as arrogant. This really helped her in 2019 because she was unknown and was hitting at establishment figures that people were sick of.

It has made it really difficult for her to govern, however. Especially as it’s been a rough few years with Covid and rising crime, the confrontational attitude hasn’t helped.

It’s also making it difficult for her to run for re-election. She is physically incapable of inspiring people. All she knows is how to fight. It’s not a way to run a re-election campaign.

Interesting parallels to Trump, I realize as I am typing it out.

Trump is absolutely who she reminds me most of. No consistent ideology, no real agenda to speak of. Just reactionary stuff and petty fights. She seems to be against whatever the person she’s annoyed with is for on any given day.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Why was Lightfoot a fail as Mayor?  Just curious. I actually voted for the legendary Mayor Daily once. He made the trains run on time - sort of. The Pubs back then, as I guess now, were quite a the pathetic lot in both Illinois and Chicago.  My precinct voted 91-9 for McGovern. I voted for Nixon of course, knowing he was probably a crook. I turned the machine lever wearing a Nixon button. That was fun.

She is extremely confrontational and comes off as arrogant. This really helped her in 2019 because she was unknown and was hitting at establishment figures that people were sick of.

It has made it really difficult for her to govern, however. Especially as it’s been a rough few years with Covid and rising crime, the confrontational attitude hasn’t helped.

It’s also making it difficult for her to run for re-election. She is physically incapable of inspiring people. All she knows is how to fight. It’s not a way to run a re-election campaign.

Interesting parallels to Trump, I realize as I am typing it out.

Trump is absolutely who she reminds me most of. No consistent ideology, no real agenda to speak of. Just reactionary stuff and petty fights. She seems to be against whatever the person she’s annoyed with is for on any given day.

Not to mention the adultery rumors (which, atleast for her, are probably false)

[Duke of York]

Why was Lightfoot a fail as Mayor?  Just curious. I actually voted for the legendary Mayor Daily once. He made the trains run on time - sort of. The Pubs back then, as I guess now, were quite a the pathetic lot in both Illinois and Chicago.  My precinct voted 91-9 for McGovern. I voted for Nixon of course, knowing he was probably a crook. I turned the machine lever wearing a Nixon button. That was fun.

She is extremely confrontational and comes off as arrogant. This really helped her in 2019 because she was unknown and was hitting at establishment figures that people were sick of.

It has made it really difficult for her to govern, however. Especially as it’s been a rough few years with Covid and rising crime, the confrontational attitude hasn’t helped.

It’s also making it difficult for her to run for re-election. She is physically incapable of inspiring people. All she knows is how to fight. It’s not a way to run a re-election campaign.

Interesting parallels to Trump, I realize as I am typing it out.

Trump is absolutely who she reminds me most of. No consistent ideology, no real agenda to speak of. Just reactionary stuff and petty fights. She seems to be against whatever the person she’s annoyed with is for on any given day.

I remember her closing parks during Covid and the only justification she gave was lack of social distancing. There was also a video that surfaced where she was walking the streets with officers I think and she told a bunch of kids playing basketball to go home. The manner in which she did it came off as dictatorial and power tripping.

[John Forbes Kerrygold 🧈]

New poll shows Lightfoot in first, followed closely by Wilson (!) 4.25% margin of error, lots and lots of undecided, so grain of salt obviously. Just reinforces how this is anybody's game still.

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000186-0f2d-d41d-afce-bffd7bd60000

[Illiniwek]

New poll shows Lightfoot in first, followed closely by Wilson (!) 4.25% margin of error, lots and lots of undecided, so grain of salt obviously. Just reinforces how this is anybody's game still.

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000186-0f2d-d41d-afce-bffd7bd60000

Press X to doubt. Chuy at 7%? I know he's dropping in the polls but that just seems impossible.

Can't find any other record of what 1983 Labs is. I feel pretty confident we can junk this one.

[John Forbes Kerrygold 🧈]

New poll shows Lightfoot in first, followed closely by Wilson (!) 4.25% margin of error, lots and lots of undecided, so grain of salt obviously. Just reinforces how this is anybody's game still.

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000186-0f2d-d41d-afce-bffd7bd60000

Press X to doubt. Chuy at 7%? I know he's dropping in the polls but that just seems impossible.

Can't find any other record of what 1983 Labs is. I feel pretty confident we can junk this one.

Per Illinois Politico:

Who’s behind the polls: 1983 Labs is not affiliated with any candidate, according to Adam Gunther, who leads the firm with Benjamin Bobo. Gunther has worked in digital communications and political campaigns for KNI Communications, and Bobo earned his masters from the University of Chicago with a focus in survey research and election campaigns.

I agree though. Not convinced.

[Gass3268]

Vallas got the endorsement of the Chicago Tribute.

However, there is also a clip now being circulated of Vallas claiming to be anti-choice:

The endorsement comes on the heels of Jesus “Chuy” Garcia making news Thursday with a video calling out Vallas for comments he made on abortion. The video shows Vallas in his own words, saying, “Fundamentally, I oppose abortion” and “I’m more of a Republican than a Democrat.”

https://twitter.com/ShiaKapos/status/1621555874442481669?s=20