2023 Chicago Mayoral/Aldermanic Elections

[Gracile]

Pat Quinn is out-

https://twitter.com/royalpratt/status/1593330505000312832

[BloJo94]

Looks like the Republicans are uniting behind Willie Wilson

[PSOL]

I will most likely vote for the UWF candidate Brandon Johnson and then Chuy in the runoff.

Lori Lightfoot will not be reelected, she has embarrassed herself nationally and has angered her old allies while not gaining any new one's. She has only love from the lakefront liberals seeking to gentrify the city. Saying this, ultimately the city is going to go to a pragmatic and trusted establishment figure, and that means Chuy has got this if he plays his cards right and gets the ultimate kingmaker's vote, the one and only Willie Wilson's.

[John Forbes Kerrygold 🧈]

I will most likely vote for the UWF candidate Brandon Johnson and then Chuy in the runoff.

Lori Lightfoot will not be reelected, she has embarrassed herself nationally and has angered her old allies while not gaining any new one's. She has only love from the lakefront liberals seeking to gentrify the city. Saying this, ultimately the city is going to go to a pragmatic and trusted establishment figure, and that means Chuy has got this if he plays his cards right and gets the ultimate kingmaker's vote, the one and only Willie Wilson's.

Lightfoot is depending heavily on west and south side Black voters to turn out for her in droves this go round, the thought process being that she's the last shot to have a Black mayor for a while given how the population is declining. I wonder if it'll be enough, but I do think Chuy is a really unique threat to her, having both progressive and establishment support. I'll very likely vote for him myself, just like I did in 2015.

[Gracile]

Garcia raised a large amount of money since announcing-

https://twitter.com/royalpratt/status/1595238217111961605

[Suburbia]

Raymond Lopez dropped out.

I can see something similar to what happened in the 2001 NYC mayoral election pre-9/11.

A Black-Latino coalition between Wilson/Lightfoot/Garcia people about who to endorse....

Vallas gets all the white ethnics.

In '01 before 9/11, Al Sharpton made a deal to endorse Latino Freddy Ferrer over Jewish Mark Green, who was cutting into Ferrer's base of Black and Latinos....

9/11 happened and the rest is history, white ethnics+25 percent of Blacks+30%-40% of Latinos elected Republican Mike Bloomberg....

Garcia could get a lot of Black votes....

[Green Line]

I can't believe we're going to lose Ed Burke.  RIP to a great Chicagoan and American!  Its now up to Silvana and Raymond to carry the torch.  (

[PSOL]

I can't believe we're going to lose Ed Burke.  RIP to a great Chicagoan and American!  Its now up to Silvana and Raymond to carry the torch.  (

Hallelujah! Death to the Machine!

[Oryxslayer]

I will most likely vote for the UWF candidate Brandon Johnson and then Chuy in the runoff.

Lori Lightfoot will not be reelected, she has embarrassed herself nationally and has angered her old allies while not gaining any new one's. She has only love from the lakefront liberals seeking to gentrify the city. Saying this, ultimately the city is going to go to a pragmatic and trusted establishment figure, and that means Chuy has got this if he plays his cards right and gets the ultimate kingmaker's vote, the one and only Willie Wilson's.

Lightfoot is depending heavily on west and south side Black voters to turn out for her in droves this go round, the thought process being that she's the last shot to have a Black mayor for a while given how the population is declining. I wonder if it'll be enough, but I do think Chuy is a really unique threat to her, having both progressive and establishment support. I'll very likely vote for him myself, just like I did in 2015.

I mean the situation remains as it was for a decade: you need two of Hispanic, African American, or North Side Liberals to win. Progressive gentrifiers and conservative ethnic whites are secondary to the big three. Last time Lightfoot and Preckwinkle divided the African American block, but that was all Preckwinkle had so Lightfoot swept via the other groups. Rahm had the North Side and African Americans. If Lightfoot has lost North Side Liberal support, then Chuy is in a very good position.

[Green Line]

I will most likely vote for the UWF candidate Brandon Johnson and then Chuy in the runoff.

Lori Lightfoot will not be reelected, she has embarrassed herself nationally and has angered her old allies while not gaining any new one's. She has only love from the lakefront liberals seeking to gentrify the city. Saying this, ultimately the city is going to go to a pragmatic and trusted establishment figure, and that means Chuy has got this if he plays his cards right and gets the ultimate kingmaker's vote, the one and only Willie Wilson's.

Lightfoot is depending heavily on west and south side Black voters to turn out for her in droves this go round, the thought process being that she's the last shot to have a Black mayor for a while given how the population is declining. I wonder if it'll be enough, but I do think Chuy is a really unique threat to her, having both progressive and establishment support. I'll very likely vote for him myself, just like I did in 2015.

I mean the situation remains as it was for a decade: you need two of Hispanic, African American, or North Side Liberals to win. Progressive gentrifiers and conservative ethnic whites are secondary to the big three. Last time Lightfoot and Preckwinkle divided the African American block, but that was all Preckwinkle had so Lightfoot swept via the other groups. Rahm had the North Side and African Americans. If Lightfoot has lost North Side Liberal support, then Chuy is in a very good position.

Its gonna be Chewy and Lori.  Vallas possibly has an outside shot if he can unite the Daley/Joyce voters from 2019.

[Illiniwek]

I'm not very impressed with the candidates. I like Chuy but I have my doubts he can win in the end. But I hope he does because Lori has got to go!

[Gracile]

Garcia leads Lightfoot by 7 (25-18, followed by Vallas at 14, Wilson at 10) in the first round but leads Lightfoot in a runoff by 30 points (55-25) in a poll commissioned by the International Union of Operating Engineers Local 150 (this union endorsed Garcia, so read this similar to an internal). More details and crosstabs here:

https://news.wttw.com/2022/12/12/garc-claims-front-runner-status-7-points-race-mayor-says-poll-commissioned-operating

[Green Line]

https://www.fox32chicago.com/news/chicago-mayoral-election-new-poll-shows-lightfoot-trailing-garcia-vallas

Wow!

Chewy - 28
Vallas - 19
Leadfoot - 15
Crazy Willie - 13

[Suburbia]

https://www.fox32chicago.com/news/chicago-mayoral-election-new-poll-shows-lightfoot-trailing-garcia-vallas

Wow!

Chewy - 28
Vallas - 19
Leadfoot - 15
Crazy Willie - 13

Vallas is surging because of crime, a lot of the white ethnic cops and firefighters are probably for Vallas or Willie...

Lightfoot could win a second term, but it will be tough.

[PSOL]

The feeling I’m getting from talking to friends is that the lakefront liberals will not go for a progressive candidate in the second round. However, even still there’s a lot of the Latino and progressive vote.

Ultimately, I can see Willie being the kingmaker again, and I doubt he gives it to Chuy Garcia given his  conservative bent.

[Bojack Horseman]

Why exactly is Lori Lightfoot so unpopular?

[LabourJersey]

Why exactly is Lori Lightfoot so unpopular?

My impression of Lightfoot is that she had no experience with electoral office before (she held appointive office only) and has very naive about how to run Chicago. She made a lot of enemies quickly, both in the city and in Springfield.

It seems like it will be her and Garcia in a runoff, and Garcia is probably favored to win at this rate.

[Senator Incitatus]

A little surprised that nobody seemed to be talking about the possibility Lightfoot is not a candidate until this poll. She seems like a disaster to a genuinely unbiased outsider.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Why exactly is Lori Lightfoot so unpopular?

*gestures at everything that has happened since 2019 in Chicago*

But to seriously answer your question: she has done a lot to not just alienate, but also actively antagonize, people since summer 2020. Crime is up, school closures dragged on far too long, she puts her foot in her mouth, and broke a lot of her promises. She also comes off as petty and vindictive, and not capable of managing politics. She also defends herself from criticism with cheap identity politics.

In fairness, some of these things are outside of her control, and she did deliver on a small number of key promises (e.g. 15 dollar minimum wage, civilian police oversight commission, paid down part of the city's pension debt, crime is lower in 2022 than it was in 2020 or 2021 but higher than 2015-2019, etc.). Also, there has been a lot of new investment in the city (I personally noticed how many new industries and businesses have moved to areas in the far south/southeast side like South Deering). She has raised billions to be invested in neglected neighborhoods in the west and south sides. Chicago's credit rating has improved under her. She has both increased and accelerated payments into the pension system, making a small but noticeable dent in the decades-long backlog of payments.

But she isn't good at her primary job of being a leader and administrator; she is instead antagonistic when she doesn't get her way. She doesn't inspire confidence. She engages in a zig-zag type of relationship management with various interest groups (e.g. the business community, progressives, the public sector workers, unions, homeowners, etc.), where one day she will be antagonistic and then the next she'll come crawling back and want to strike a deal, followed again by antagonism. She doesn't seem to acknowledge that the city is in a crisis.

And then there is the fundamental issue of things getting worse under her in terms of schools, crime, and affordability: even if these things are not directly her fault, they happened under her watch and she doesn't seem capable of handling them for another term. Even if you like her and think she has good intentions and is working hard, she doesn't seem effective or capable.

That said, her approval ratings are surprisingly high for how much flak she has gotten:


Maybe it will be enough to save her if all of those 38-40% approvers stick with her in the first round and then the second round opponent isn't appealing. But I wouldn't bet money on that happening.

[Oryxslayer]

Also COVID and its knock-on effects just generally made life awful for local governments everywhere. A harder job, more scrutiny, and no reward - in fact a good chance of surging disapproval over things beyond local control - caused many a Mayor to retire. Those that stayed on didn't exactly weather the storm. 

[Illiniwek]

https://www.fox32chicago.com/news/chicago-mayoral-election-new-poll-shows-lightfoot-trailing-garcia-vallas

Wow!

Chewy - 28
Vallas - 19
Leadfoot - 15
Crazy Willie - 13

Chuy vs Vallas (fingers crossed)

[Gracile]

A new poll from The Chicago Index/Crain's/The Daily Line shows Garcia and Johnson tied, with Lightfoot in fourth place:

https://www.thedailyline.com/chicago-index-poll-mayor-lightfoot-4th-place-2023-mayoral-race

https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/polco.nrc/viz/TCIMayorNov/Completedata?publish=yes

Garcia 25%
Johnson 25%
Vallas 15%
Lightfoot 11%
Buckner 5%
Green 3%
King 3%
Wilson 3%
Sawyer 2%
Collins <1%
Logalbo <1%

MoE: 3%

[PSOL]

Ideally this would be the results, but I’m skeptical. The vote for Wilson is far too low.

[Gracile]

I don't think this survey is very accurate tbh. This sample is pretty white, which might explain why various black candidates aside from Johnson are getting low levels of support.

[Green Line]

Dopey Raymond Lopez endorsed Willie Wilson instead of legitimate contender Vallas.  He's finished.  I need to know who Ald. Tabares is supporting.