2022 College Football Discussion & Pick'em Thread

[NewYorkExpress]

And here's an especially hot take -- I think Georgia Tech could possibly come to the SEC in the inevitable future when Clemson and Florida State do. The SEC would be fools to let the Big 10 or even the Big 12 have a foothold in the Atlanta market.

In a sense by having Georgia, they already have the Atlanta Market. Also, I think Georgia Tech, Clemson and Florida State are stuck in the ACC because I can't imagine Georgia, South Carolina and Florida voting to let them join the conference (especially in the cases of Georgia/Georgia Tech and Florida/Florida State). More likely future SEC schools, if the conference expands again, are the four ACC schools in North Carolina (Duke, North Carolina, NC State and Wake Forest) some combination of Baylor/Oklahoma State/Texas Tech and possibly Louisville (if Kentucky gets on board).

[NewYorkExpress]

https://twitter.com/YahooSportsCFB/status/1574157252457537539

[Dereich]

And here's an especially hot take -- I think Georgia Tech could possibly come to the SEC in the inevitable future when Clemson and Florida State do. The SEC would be fools to let the Big 10 or even the Big 12 have a foothold in the Atlanta market.

In a sense by having Georgia, they already have the Atlanta Market. Also, I think Georgia Tech, Clemson and Florida State are stuck in the ACC because I can't imagine Georgia, South Carolina and Florida voting to let them join the conference (especially in the cases of Georgia/Georgia Tech and Florida/Florida State). More likely future SEC schools, if the conference expands again, are the four ACC schools in North Carolina (Duke, North Carolina, NC State and Wake Forest) some combination of Baylor/Oklahoma State/Texas Tech and possibly Louisville (if Kentucky gets on board).

What is driving conference expansion is, above all else, the almighty dollar. College basketball only earns something like 20% of what college football does. It's relevant, its just not the main driver of revenue. FSU and Clemson are both extremely profitable football brands in very good recruiting areas. Either program brings in more money for the conference than any of the North Carolina schools. If the SEC were to say no to them, the Big 10 might just come calling. THAT is the risk that would force their rivals to accept them; better for everyone's bottom line to keep the recruiting battles within the SEC rather than risk opening a recruit pipeline to the midwestern menace.

[NewYorkExpress]

College Gameday is heading to NC State/Clemson this week.

Good choice, though I probably would have preferred one of Alabama/Arkansas, Kentucky/Ole Miss or Oklahoma State/Baylor instead.

I think the Gameday choices for next week come down to Texas A&M/Arkansas, Auburn/Georgia, Tennessee/LSU, Florida State/NC State, and Texas/OKlahoma...with a slim possibility of TCU/Kansas.

If I had to pick, I'd go with Texas/Oklahoma. There's just something about the Red River Rivalry that excites fan passions.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

College Gameday is heading to NC State/Clemson this week.

Good choice, though I probably would have preferred one of Alabama/Arkansas, Kentucky/Ole Miss or Oklahoma State/Baylor instead.

I think the Gameday choices for next week come down to Texas A&M/Arkansas, Auburn/Georgia, Tennessee/LSU, Florida State/NC State, and Texas/OKlahoma...with a slim possibility of TCU/Kansas.

If I had to pick, I'd go with Texas/Oklahoma. There's just something about the Red River Rivalry that excites fan passions.

Texas A&M/Arkansas already happened

[7,052,770]

And here's an especially hot take -- I think Georgia Tech could possibly come to the SEC in the inevitable future when Clemson and Florida State do. The SEC would be fools to let the Big 10 or even the Big 12 have a foothold in the Atlanta market.

In a sense by having Georgia, they already have the Atlanta Market. Also, I think Georgia Tech, Clemson and Florida State are stuck in the ACC because I can't imagine Georgia, South Carolina and Florida voting to let them join the conference (especially in the cases of Georgia/Georgia Tech and Florida/Florida State). More likely future SEC schools, if the conference expands again, are the four ACC schools in North Carolina (Duke, North Carolina, NC State and Wake Forest) some combination of Baylor/Oklahoma State/Texas Tech and possibly Louisville (if Kentucky gets on board).

There have been rumors that Florida is a YES on Florida State. South Carolina is potentially a No on Clemson, but we saw this year that Texas A&M couldn't stop Texas from joining, and I don't think South Carolina will be able to stop Clemson either.

I agree that the SEC already has the Atlanta market, but I just don't think they're going to want to see the Big 10 or Big 12 playing conference games in Atlanta and potentially eating into that market. Georgia Tech is a large school that has some potential, not a sleeping giant necessarily, but clearly an underachiever.

However, I think don't think they're a high priority for the SEC unless the Big 10 is going after them hard, or maybe if they're stuck with an awkward odd number.

[ultraviolet]

Dan Mullen is such an underrated coach, Florida shouldn’t have fired him after one bad year.

I could see him having a lot of success at Georgia Tech

[Donerail]

Would argue Carolina is somewhat different from State/Duke/Wake — adding a large public school would fit with the SEC in a way Duke and Wake wouldn't, and their recruiting (vs both the historic baseline and vs State) has been impressive recently. Don't think they're favored over Clemson and FSU, which are the two most obvious candidates, but if the SEC goes to 20, it'd make sense for the SEC to try to control that TV market and ensure the state remains open to recruiting for its member schools. UNC lets you do that in a way that adding Wake (lol) would not.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Would argue Carolina is somewhat different from State/Duke/Wake — adding a large public school would fit with the SEC in a way Duke and Wake wouldn't, and their recruiting (vs both the historic baseline and vs State) has been impressive recently. Don't think they're favored over Clemson and FSU, which are the two most obvious candidates, but if the SEC goes to 20, it'd make sense for the SEC to try to control that TV market and ensure the state remains open to recruiting for its member schools. UNC lets you do that in a way that adding Wake (lol) would not.

I agree that UNC would be the most attractive candidate for the SEC, and we all know football is the main money driver.  But basketball is awfully important in North Carolina; would they be willing to switch to another conference unless Duke came along?

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

What got into Kansas? 

[Illiniwek]

Week 5

Friday, September 30th

Tulane @ Houston 7 PM EDT ESPN

UTSA @ Middle Tennessee 7:30 PM EDT CBSSN

San Diego State @ Boise State 8 PM EDT FS1

#15 Washington @ UCLA 10:30 PM EDT ESPN

Saturday, October 1st

#18 Oklahoma @ TCU Noon EDT ABC

#7 Kentucky @ #14 Ole Miss Noon EDT ESPN

Texas Tech @ #25 Kansas State Noon EDT ESPN+

Illinois @ Wisconsin Noon EDT BTN I love the beloved, and I think Illinois covers. But I don't think I can pick them confidently up against a team that has run the West since its creation and in a stadium I have never seen Illinois win in. Prove me wrong, please.

Oregon State @ #12 Utah 2 PM EDT PAC12

Northern Illinois @ Ball State 2 PM EDT ESPN+

#2 Alabama @ #20 Arkansas 3:30 PM EDT CBS

#9 Oklahoma State @ #16 Baylor 3:30 PM EDT FOX

#22 Wake Forest @ #23 Florida State 3:30 PM EDT ABC

Iowa State @ #26 Kansas 3:30 PM EDT ESPN2

Michigan State @ Maryland 3:30 PM EDT FS1

SMU @ UCF 3:30 PM EDT ESPNU

Miami (OH) @ Buffalo 3:30 PM EDT ESPN+

#17 Texas A&M @ Mississippi State 4 PM EDT SECN

California @ Washington State 5:30 PM EDT PAC12

Liberty @ Old Dominion 6 PM EDT ESPN+

LSU @ Auburn 7 PM EDT ESPN

#10 NC State @ #5 Clemson 7:30 PM EDT ABC

Indiana @ Nebraska 7:30 PM EDT BTN

Virginia @ Duke 7:30 PM EDT ESPN3

Stanford @ #13 Oregon 11 PM EDT FS1

[Terry the Fat Shark]

https://www.si.com/college/2022/09/26/college-football-bowl-projections-schedule-playoff?utm_source=reddit.com Sorry NYE you have been outdone

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.si.com/college/2022/09/26/college-football-bowl-projections-schedule-playoff?utm_source=reddit.com Sorry NYE you have been outdone

I'm not sure there's a scenario (barring Alabama losing before the SEC Championship Game) that doesn't have both Alabama and Georgia in the playoff.

[GeorgiaModerate]

538's Playoff Predictor is up: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-college-football-predictions/.  The big three (Georgia, Alabama, and Ohio State) have the best chances to make the playoff at 54%, 53%, and 48% respectively, followed by Clemson at 35%, Michigan at 22%, and USC at 20%.  The writeup is at https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-college-football-playoff-forecast-is-back-and-so-are-the-usual-contenders/.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

https://www.si.com/college/2022/09/26/college-football-bowl-projections-schedule-playoff?utm_source=reddit.com Sorry NYE you have been outdone

I'm not sure there's a scenario (barring Alabama losing before the SEC Championship Game) that doesn't have both Alabama and Georgia in the playoff.

Even that won't keep Alabama out since it's 'more likely than not' that they lose an SEC regular season game. 538 implies a 60% chance of that, which nearly aligns with Nick Saban's history of only escaping unblemished through SEC play 5 out of 15 times. And this certainly doesn't look like one of his best five Alabama squads. Arguably not in his top 10.

All the difficult games on the road and all the easy games at home definitely does not help their case for going 12-0.

Fortunately for them, they will still be in the SEC title game with a blemish (and even a 2-loss Alabama team will probably get the 4 seed over, say, 1 loss Michigan or 1 loss Big XII champ). Ole Miss has a tough cross-division draw and three pretty tough road games themselves, so good chance they lose twice outside of Bama. And the rest of the division has no chance with Arkansas shooting themselves in the foot and A&M having to go to Tuscaloosa.

FPI says 85% for Bama to make the playoff (78% for Ohio State; 72% for Georgia). FPI has its problems, but I think that's a little closer to my expectations - at least for Alabama. I'm inclined to say it's a bit closer for Georgia too.

538 is probably more correct for Ohio State though - Michigan may as well be a play-in game.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Hank Bachmeier is transferring out of Boise State to retain two seasons of eligibility.

The Mountain West has been a disgrace this year in what should have been its big chance to assert itself as the premier G5 over the Sun Belt. Five schools would probably not be among the top 25 FCS squads (Hawaii, Colorado State and Utah State for sure, plus probably Nevada and possibly New Mexico). San Diego State and now Boise State go from being top 40 teams to probably outside the top 80 or worse.

Fresno State could be the best, but they will not have an FBS win until October 8 at best, so no accolades unless they win out. Shame Air Force lost to Wyoming because they should race through the remaining schedule with ease ("if they can run the ball" - Rick Bo$co) - but the SoS could still keep them out of any New Year's bowls conversations.

What a catastrophe.

Cincinnati could probably sleepwalk their way into the NY6 once the parity in the Sun Belt East beats up on each other all season. Hilariously, Western Kentucky, who was just rejected by both the American and the MAC, is just about the only team that could maybe take their place if there is a slip up.

Six autobids to the playoffs is going to be a real doozy.

[tmthforu94]

Haven't done the pick 'em but jumping in to say Rock Chalk, Jayhawk! It has been a miserable past 13 years as a Jayhawk fan, glad to see the team finally enjoying some success. We have a winner in Coach Leipold, hopefully we can rework his contract to ensure he stays in Lawrence a long time. Even an above-average football team would put us close to Top 10 in terms of athletic programs, making us impossible to overlook with the constant realignment talks.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Haven't done the pick 'em but jumping in to say Rock Chalk, Jayhawk! It has been a miserable past 13 years as a Jayhawk fan, glad to see the team finally enjoying some success. We have a winner in Coach Leipold, hopefully we can rework his contract to ensure he stays in Lawrence a long time. Even an above-average football team would put us close to Top 10 in terms of athletic programs, making us impossible to overlook with the constant realignment talks.

You might like this article, especially the section on Kansas (41 years?)

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/college-basketball-schools-3-0-in-football-having-better-seasons-on-gridiron-is-rare-for-hoops-blue-bloods/

[tmthforu94]

Haven't done the pick 'em but jumping in to say Rock Chalk, Jayhawk! It has been a miserable past 13 years as a Jayhawk fan, glad to see the team finally enjoying some success. We have a winner in Coach Leipold, hopefully we can rework his contract to ensure he stays in Lawrence a long time. Even an above-average football team would put us close to Top 10 in terms of athletic programs, making us impossible to overlook with the constant realignment talks.

You might like this article, especially the section on Kansas (41 years?)

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/college-basketball-schools-3-0-in-football-having-better-seasons-on-gridiron-is-rare-for-hoops-blue-bloods/

Very cool, thanks for sharing! I had seen it mentioned of the Blue Blood success this season, but not this particular piece. The KU bit isn't surprising. The last 13 years have been a disaster, but before that we were decently average, making a bowl game every couple of years. I think it is a greater testament to how consistent our basketball program has been over the past few decades!! All of the others have definitely had off years, we really haven't. KU has never even been a bubble team in the entire time I've been alive.

[NewYorkExpress]

Hank Bachmeier is transferring out of Boise State to retain two seasons of eligibility.

The Mountain West has been a disgrace this year in what should have been its big chance to assert itself as the premier G5 over the Sun Belt. Five schools would probably not be among the top 25 FCS squads (Hawaii, Colorado State and Utah State for sure, plus probably Nevada and possibly New Mexico). San Diego State and now Boise State go from being top 40 teams to probably outside the top 80 or worse.

Fresno State could be the best, but they will not have an FBS win until October 8 at best, so no accolades unless they win out. Shame Air Force lost to Wyoming because they should race through the remaining schedule with ease ("if they can run the ball" - Rick Bo$co) - but the SoS could still keep them out of any New Year's bowls conversations.

What a catastrophe.

Cincinnati could probably sleepwalk their way into the NY6 once the parity in the Sun Belt East beats up on each other all season. Hilariously, Western Kentucky, who was just rejected by both the American and the MAC, is just about the only team that could maybe take their place if there is a slip up.

I think Coastal Carolina's got the inside track on a New Year's Six bowl, provided they remain unbeaten (and honestly, they should. They get Appalachian State and Old Dominion at home, and their toughest test beyond that, a road game at Virginia is definitely winnable the way Virginia's been playing.)

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Hank Bachmeier is transferring out of Boise State to retain two seasons of eligibility.

The Mountain West has been a disgrace this year in what should have been its big chance to assert itself as the premier G5 over the Sun Belt. Five schools would probably not be among the top 25 FCS squads (Hawaii, Colorado State and Utah State for sure, plus probably Nevada and possibly New Mexico). San Diego State and now Boise State go from being top 40 teams to probably outside the top 80 or worse.

Fresno State could be the best, but they will not have an FBS win until October 8 at best, so no accolades unless they win out. Shame Air Force lost to Wyoming because they should race through the remaining schedule with ease ("if they can run the ball" - Rick Bo$co) - but the SoS could still keep them out of any New Year's bowls conversations.

What a catastrophe.

Cincinnati could probably sleepwalk their way into the NY6 once the parity in the Sun Belt East beats up on each other all season. Hilariously, Western Kentucky, who was just rejected by both the American and the MAC, is just about the only team that could maybe take their place if there is a slip up.

I think Coastal Carolina's got the inside track on a New Year's Six bowl, provided they remain unbeaten (and honestly, they should. They get Appalachian State and Old Dominion at home, and their toughest test beyond that, a road game at Virginia is definitely winnable the way Virginia's been playing.)

Good points. @Marshall could be a little tricky but the schedule is not bad. I have just been disappointed by the early season play and those last two games don't sound fun. Harrisonburg will be crazy. Maybe Charlottesville won't be so bad with rivalry week in tow

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/YahooSportsCFB/status/1574157252457537539

10-28 while at Tech. That pretty much sums it up.

Sadly his biggest win was against then #21 UNC last year.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Week 5

Tulane @ Houston 7 PM EDT ESPN

UTSA @ Middle Tennessee 7:30 PM EDT CBSSN

San Diego State @ Boise State 8 PM EDT FS1

#15 Washington @ UCLA 10:30 PM EDT ESPN

#18 Oklahoma @ TCU Noon EDT ABC

#7 Kentucky @ #14 Ole Miss Noon EDT ESPN

Texas Tech @ #25 Kansas State Noon EDT ESPN+

Illinois @ Wisconsin Noon EDT BTN

Oregon State @ #12 Utah 2 PM EDT PAC12

Northern Illinois @ Ball State 2 PM EDT ESPN+

#2 Alabama @ #20 Arkansas 3:30 PM EDT CBS

#9 Oklahoma State @ #16 Baylor 3:30 PM EDT FOX

#22 Wake Forest @ #23 Florida State 3:30 PM EDT ABC

Iowa State @ #26 Kansas 3:30 PM EDT ESPN2

Michigan State @ Maryland 3:30 PM EDT FS1

SMU @ UCF 3:30 PM EDT ESPNU

Miami (OH) @ Buffalo 3:30 PM EDT ESPN+

#17 Texas A&M @ Mississippi State 4 PM EDT SECN

California @ Washington State 5:30 PM EDT PAC12

Liberty @ Old Dominion 6 PM EDT ESPN+

LSU @ Auburn 7 PM EDT ESPN

#10 NC State @ #5 Clemson 7:30 PM EDT ABC

Indiana @ Nebraska 7:30 PM EDT BTN

Virginia @ Duke 7:30 PM EDT ESPN3

Stanford @ #13 Oregon 11 PM EDT FS1

[Donerail]

Week 5
Tulane @ Houston
UTSA @ Middle Tennessee
San Diego State @ Boise State – but Boise might be bad, real bad
#15 Washington @ UCLA – UCLA quietly 4-0; hasn't played anyone, but Vegas is only giving +3, so there might be something here
#18 Oklahoma @ TCU
#7 Kentucky @ #14 Ole Miss
Texas Tech @ #25 Kansas State
Illinois @ Wisconsin
Oregon State @ #12 Utah – OSU very good this year but Utah is the class of the conference
Northern Illinois @ Ball State
#2 Alabama @ #20 Arkansas
#9 Oklahoma State @ #16 Baylor
#22 Wake Forest @ #23 Florida State – Noles r BACK
Iowa State @ #26 Kansas – end of the dream
Michigan State @ Maryland
SMU @ UCF
Miami (OH) @ Buffalo
#17 Texas A&M @ Mississippi State
California @ Washington State – Cal will score precisely six points
Liberty @ Old Dominion
LSU @ Auburn
#10 NC State @ #5 Clemson
Indiana @ Nebraska
Virginia @ Duke
STANFORD @ #13 Oregon

[JGibson]

Friday, September 30th

Tulane @ Houston 7 PM EDT ESPN

UTSA @ Middle Tennessee 7:30 PM EDT CBSSN

San Diego State @ Boise State 8 PM EDT FS1

#15 Washington @ UCLA 10:30 PM EDT ESPN

Saturday, October 1st

#18 Oklahoma @ TCU Noon EDT ABC

#7 Kentucky @ #14 Ole Miss Noon EDT ESPN

Texas Tech @ #25 Kansas State Noon EDT ESPN+

Illinois @ Wisconsin Noon EDT BTN

Oregon State @ #12 Utah 2 PM EDT PAC12

Northern Illinois @ Ball State 2 PM EDT ESPN+

#2 Alabama @ #20 Arkansas 3:30 PM EDT CBS

#9 Oklahoma State @ #16 Baylor 3:30 PM EDT FOX

#22 Wake Forest @ #23 Florida State 3:30 PM EDT ABC

Iowa State @ #26 Kansas 3:30 PM EDT ESPN2

Michigan State @ Maryland 3:30 PM EDT FS1

SMU @ UCF 3:30 PM EDT ESPNU

Miami (OH) @ Buffalo 3:30 PM EDT ESPN+

#17 Texas A&M @ Mississippi State 4 PM EDT SECN

California @ Washington State 5:30 PM EDT PAC12

Liberty @ Old Dominion 6 PM EDT ESPN+

LSU @ Auburn 7 PM EDT ESPN

#10 NC State @ #5 Clemson 7:30 PM EDT ABC

Indiana @ Nebraska 7:30 PM EDT BTN

Virginia @ Duke 7:30 PM EDT ESPN3

Stanford @ #13 Oregon 11 PM EDT FS1