2022 College Football Discussion & Pick'em Thread

[Donerail]

Not even I saw that type of a performance for Vandy coming.  Do I dare adjust my expectations to like 5-7?

Maybe? Elon makes 2, and Northern Illinois and Wake Forest were very good in their conferences last year, but won't have SEC talent.

Beyond that, it's definitely plausible that you could beat Ole Miss, South Carolina, or even Tennessee at home, so that's 7 winnable games.

Hawaii is bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad this season. Least amount of returning production of any team in the country, head coach fired, state legislature's holding hearings on how bad the program is. And their stadium got condemned. Things are not good there.

Vandy... is also very bad, but Davidson County has not yet condemned their stadium, so they've got that going for them. They can beat up on what is functionally an FCS opponent at this point, and will likely do so again against Elon, but that's all you can really take away from this. Maybe they will also beat NIU.

[Donerail]

Not even I saw that type of a performance for Vandy coming.  Do I dare adjust my expectations to like 5-7?

Maybe? Elon makes 2, and Northern Illinois and Wake Forest were very good in their conferences last year, but won't have SEC talent.

Beyond that, it's definitely plausible that you could beat Ole Miss, South Carolina, or even Tennessee at home, so that's 7 winnable games.

Hawaii is bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad this season. Least amount of returning production of any team in the country, head coach fired, state legislature's holding hearings on how bad the program is. And their stadium got condemned. Things are not good there.

Doesn't the Hawaii Legislature have better things to do than worry about the football team? This isn't Texas or Alabama where college football is a way of life, it's Hawaii, where you surf, drink Mai Tai's and eat Poke.

The legislature is investigating allegations of mistreatment by coaches and staff, including one player who was allegedly denied treatment for a head injury by medical staff and how has permanent brain damage. There were also allegations that coaching staff used racist language to refer to African-American players and Hawaiian players. That is part of why they have the least returning production of any team in the country—lots of players are transferring out specifically because of the hostile environment. Those are serious allegations—not something you can have going on at a public university—and it's the legislature's job to manage the state university system.

[Donerail]

Week 1

Thursday, September 1st
West Virginia @ #17 Pittsburgh
Penn State @ Purdue

Friday, September 2nd
Illinois @ Indiana
TCU @ Colorado

Saturday, September 3rd
Rutgers @ Boston College
North Carolina @ Appalachian State
NC State @ East Carolina
#23 Cincinnati @ #19 Arkansas
#11 Oregon vs #3 Georgia
Arizona @ San Diego State
Tulsa @ Wyoming
#24 Houston @ UTSA
Texas State @ Nevada
#7 Utah @ Florida
Army @ Coastal Carolina
Liberty @ Southern Miss
Memphis @ Mississippi State
#5 Notre Dame @ #2 Ohio State
SMU @ North Texas
Louisville @ Syracuse
Boise State @ Oregon State

Sunday, September 4th
Florida State @ LSU

[Donerail]

Week 2

Friday, September 9th
Louisville @ UCF – Louisville looked truly dogsh**t against... Syracuse. I am unwilling to entertain a world where Syracuse is competent, so I assume Louisville must be truly truly very bad.

Saturday, September 10th
Alabama @ Texas – they're not back folks
South Carolina @ Arkansas
Missouri @ Kansas State
Duke @ Northwestern
UTSA @ Army
Western Michigan @ Ball State
Tennessee @ Pittsburgh – god Pitt is painful to watch now
Washington State @ Wisconsin
Colorado @ Air Force
Memphis @ Navy – things seem very bad at Navy rn
#24 Houston @ Texas Tech
Iowa State @ Iowa – did you all know Iowa won last week with 7 points (field goal + 2 safeties)? Need to repeat that fact at every opportunity.
Virginia @ Illinois
Kansas @ West Virginia
Old Dominion @ East Carolina
UAB @ Liberty
Kentucky @ Florida
Arizona State @ Oklahoma State
USC @ STANFORD
Boston College @ Virginia Tech
New Mexico State @ UTEP
#10 Baylor @ #25 BYU
Oregon State @ Fresno State
Mississippi State @ Arizona

[Donerail]

I should probably point out that at first glance next week doesn't look great either, schedule wise.

Miami (FL)/Texas A&M is far and away the best game on the schedule.

Penn State-Auburn and BYU-Oregon are potentially better. Miss St-LSU, Mich St-Washington. Oklahoma-Nebraska and FSU-Louisville are potentially intriguing, Fresno-USC might be closer than expected (Fresno is punchy), and the slim chance of a UTSA-Texas upset. Not a perfectly full platter but not a bad week.

[Donerail]

Nevada is losing at home to FCS Incarnate Word 31-17!

How did they let Colorado State poach their coach? I could understand a P5 school, but just another mid-level MWC team?

"Mid-level MWC team" obscures a lot of differences between those programs. Colorado State is a great place to coach — brand new stadium, decent recruiting footprint, Fort Collins is a nice town, and the football budget is near the top of the league. It should be Boise-level good (or at least the people in charge there think it should), even if its on-field results have been mediocre.

Nevada, by contrast, is not that. Lowest coaching salary pool in the MWC, only cold-weather MWC school without an indoor practice facility, very poor recruiting. Norvell's work there is probably the high-water mark of what can be accomplished — making that program into a mid-level MWC team is incredibly difficult. He managed to develop a few stars and, given how difficult that would be to sustain at Nevada, jumped at the right moment to a MWC program with more resources. (He was rumored to be talking to Utah State the season prior.) More than doubled his salary with the move too.

[Donerail]

If Nebraska poaches someone from the Big XII, Leipold, Klieman and Campbell are all ahead of Aranda. Leipold in particular should be number 1, if he takes their calls.

[Donerail]

Week 3

Florida State @ Louisville
Air Force @ Wyoming
Oklahoma @ Nebraska

Villanova @ Army
Purdue @ Syracuse
Cincinnati @ Miami (OH)
Western Kentucky @ Indiana
California @ Notre Dame
UNT @ UNLV
BYU @ Oregon
Penn State @ Auburn
Vanderbilt @ Northern Illinois
Troy @ Appalachian State
Kansas @ Houston
Mississippi State @ LSU
Arkansas State @ Memphis
Texas Tech @ NC State
Michigan State @ Washington
SMU @ Maryland
UCF @ Florida Atlantic
Louisiana @ Rice
UTSA @ Texas
UTEP @ New Mexico
Miami (FL) @ Texas A&M
Fresno State @ USC

[Donerail]

Georgia up 24-0 at the half at South Carolina.

Cocks Up!

Isn't there a way to support South Carolina without sounding like a pervert?

No

[Donerail]

Liberty is not going to make the playoff.

[Donerail]

Liberty is not going to make the playoff.

I seem to recall you, and pretty much everyone else here, saying Cincinnati wouldn't make it all of last year.

You talking about this post?

Realistically, the playoff breaks down into four lanes, each of which should resolve into one of the playoff spots:
-UGA & Bama (the only one that could conceivably become two spots)
-Ohio State, Michigan, MSU — will be resolved over the next couple weeks. Barring some freak accident, one of these teams will emerge as the East winner and will be essentially guaranteed a playoff spot
-Bedlam will decide which Oklahoma gets a spot, barring something weird involving Baylor
-Oregon & Wake should each be in if they win out, seems unlikely that both will

Sorry to Cincinnati.

UGA & Bama got two spots, Michigan won the East and the conference, "something weird involving Baylor" happened, and both Oregon and Wake lost. Committee didn't want to put Cincinnati in, but ran out of other options. And as bad as Cincinnati was for them, Liberty would be much harder to swallow.

At any rate, Liberty is playing a much weaker schedule than Cincinnati did that year (they've scheduled four decent teams and also UConn, UMass, NMSU, Akron, Gardner-Webb...), is a worse football team, and just lost to Wake. No playoff for them.

[Donerail]

First time I've seen Kansas get votes in a while

Should be a lock for the playoff if they can pull off a win this week against an undefeated ACC team.

[Donerail]

Week 4

Thursday, September 22nd
West Virginia @ Virginia Tech
Coastal Carolina @ Georgia State

Saturday, September 24th
TCU @ SMU
#5 Clemson @ #21 Wake Forest
#17 Baylor @ Iowa State
Duke @ Kansas
#20 Florida @ #11 Tennessee
#22 Texas @ Texas Tech
Notre Dame @ North Carolina
Minnesota @ Michigan State
Toledo @ San Diego State
#15 Oregon @ Washington State
Arizona @ California
Arkansas State @ Old Dominion
#10 Arkansas @ #23 Texas A&M
UNLV @ Utah State
Marshall @ Troy
Wisconsin @ #3 Ohio State
Miami (OH) @ Northwestern
Kansas State @ #6 Oklahoma
Hawai'i @ New Mexico State – man...
#7 USC @ Oregon State
#13 Utah @ Arizona State
STANFORD @ #18 Washington
Western Michigan @ San Jose State

[Donerail]

Would argue Carolina is somewhat different from State/Duke/Wake — adding a large public school would fit with the SEC in a way Duke and Wake wouldn't, and their recruiting (vs both the historic baseline and vs State) has been impressive recently. Don't think they're favored over Clemson and FSU, which are the two most obvious candidates, but if the SEC goes to 20, it'd make sense for the SEC to try to control that TV market and ensure the state remains open to recruiting for its member schools. UNC lets you do that in a way that adding Wake (lol) would not.

[Donerail]

Week 5
Tulane @ Houston
UTSA @ Middle Tennessee
San Diego State @ Boise State – but Boise might be bad, real bad
#15 Washington @ UCLA – UCLA quietly 4-0; hasn't played anyone, but Vegas is only giving +3, so there might be something here
#18 Oklahoma @ TCU
#7 Kentucky @ #14 Ole Miss
Texas Tech @ #25 Kansas State
Illinois @ Wisconsin
Oregon State @ #12 Utah – OSU very good this year but Utah is the class of the conference
Northern Illinois @ Ball State
#2 Alabama @ #20 Arkansas
#9 Oklahoma State @ #16 Baylor
#22 Wake Forest @ #23 Florida State – Noles r BACK
Iowa State @ #26 Kansas – end of the dream
Michigan State @ Maryland
SMU @ UCF
Miami (OH) @ Buffalo
#17 Texas A&M @ Mississippi State
California @ Washington State – Cal will score precisely six points
Liberty @ Old Dominion
LSU @ Auburn
#10 NC State @ #5 Clemson
Indiana @ Nebraska
Virginia @ Duke
STANFORD @ #13 Oregon

[Donerail]

My guesses for the next head coach at Colorado:

Former Nebraska Head Coach Scott Frost
Former Florida Head Coach Dan Mullen
USC Defensive Coordinator Alex Grinch
USC Offensive Coordinator Graham Harrell
Boise State Head Coach Andy Avalos

No. (Maybe Mullen.) Frontrunner for this job is Illinois DC Ryan Walters, also absolutely have to think about Bieniemy if he'd take it.

[Donerail]

Week 6

Friday, October 7th
Nebraska @ Rutgers
Houston @ Memphis
Colorado State @ Nevada – gross, nasty, blech
UNLV @ San Jose State

Saturday, October 8th
#17 TCU @ #19 Kansas
#8 Tennessee @ #25 LSU
Arkansas @ #23 Mississippi State
Texas vs Oklahoma
Louisville @ Virginia
Buffalo @ Bowling Green – gross, nasty, blech
Texas Tech @ #7 Oklahoma State
#11 Utah @ #18 UCLA – fun to watch Pac-12 rankings ping pong, UCLA's ranked now. Utah has a real good shot at making up for the UF loss over the next two weeks.
East Carolina @ Tulane
Kent State @ Miami (OH)
Duke @ Georgia Tech
North Carolina @ Miami (FL)
Western Kentucky @ UTSA
Wyoming @ New Mexico
UConn @ Florida International – jesus christ
UTEP @ Louisiana Tech
#16 BYU @ Notre Dame – perplexing to me that BYU is still ranked (moved up(!) to 16) after a one-score win over a very very bad Utah State team.
#20 Kansas State @ Iowa State
Iowa @ Illinois
Florida State @ #14 NC State
Oregon State @ STANFORD – gonna be our week, I can feel it. First home game of the season w/ students on campus, extremely bad turnover luck has to even out at some point, it is Mental Health Awareness Game and my mental health cannot take a fourth straight loss, all factors working in favor

[Donerail]

Given the embarrassing 49-0 loss to Texas this week, and the fact the Sooners don't have a Big Twelve victory yet, what are the odds Brent Venables is fired as Oklahoma head coach at some point this season?

Any program that fires a coach in his first year (non-interim) will never be able to get a good coach again

On the other hand, every team that already fired their coach won this week. Oklahoma would've won Red River if they just fired Venables beforehand.

[Donerail]

Week 7

Thursday, October 13th
Baylor @ West Virginia

Saturday, October 15th
#10 Penn State @ #5 Michigan
#19 Kansas @ Oklahoma – the skid has to end at some point... right?
Minnesota @ #24 Illinois
#3 Alabama @ #6 Tennessee
#8 Oklahoma State @ #13 TCU – maybe the game of the weekend
#15 NC State @ #18 Syracuse
Arkansas @ BYU
Northern Illinois @ Eastern Michigan
Ohio @ Western Michigan
Wisconsin @ Michigan State
Rice @ Florida Atlantic
LSU @ Florida
Arkansas State @ Southern Miss
#4 Clemson @ Florida State
#16 Mississippi State @ #22 Kentucky
STANFORD @ Notre Dame
Nebraska @ Purdue
Memphis @ East Carolina
#7 USC @ #20 Utah
North Carolina @ Duke
Washington State @ Oregon State
Air Force @ UNLV
San Jose State @ Fresno State
Nevada @ Hawai'i

[Donerail]

CARDINAL LETS ING GOOOOO!!!! MAGIC!!!!

NOTRE DAME AIN'T sh**t!! WE WANT TENNESSEE!

[Donerail]

Week 8

Saturday, October 22nd
#14 Syracuse @ #5 Clemson
#21 Cincinnati @ SMU
Kansas @ Baylor
Indiana @ Rutgers
Toledo @ Buffalo
Eastern Michigan @ Ball State
Northern Illinois @ Ohio
West Virginia @ Texas Tech
Rice @ Louisiana Tech
#7 Ole Miss @ LSU
#9 UCLA @ #10 Oregon – Game of the weekend! Gameday's gonna be there, Chip leading an undefeated team into Eugene vs a great Oregon team, environment's gonna be fantastic. Looking forward to this one.
#20 Texas @ #11 Oklahoma State
Memphis @ #25 Tulane
BYU @ Liberty – shame that this is a pretty mediocre BYU team this season, with the schedule they built they could've made a run at the playoff if undefeated. But they are very defeated. Should still beat Liberty, which is also having a down year.
Purdue @ Wisconsin
North Texas @ UTSA
Arizona State @ STANFORD – you are under investigation by the NCAA for recruiting violations. I am under investigation by the SEC [the other SEC] for investment fraud. We are not the same.
Florida Atlantic @ UTEP
Southern Miss @ Texas State
#24 Mississippi State @ #6 Alabama
Boise State @ Air Force – probably one of the best games we're gonna get out of a down MW this season; winner likely favored to make the title game out of the Mountain division I think.
Texas A&M @ South Carolina
UCF @ East Carolina
#17 Kansas State @ #8 TCU
Utah State @ Wyoming – blech

[Donerail]

Next week has a bunch of intriguing GameDay choices just at a glance. There's Oklahoma State/Kansas State, Cincinnati/UCF, Ohio State/Penn State (which almost certainly will be the FOX Big Noon Kickoff game, and thus not the GameDay game), Florida/Georgia (despite Florida's performance, big rivalry games are always favored destinations for GameDay), Kentucky/Tennessee (being a night game on ESPN might make it slightly more likely to be chosen), Michigan State/Michigan (again, despite Michigan State's struggles, it's a big rivalry game, plus it's a night game on ABC) and Pittsburgh/North Carolina.

Most obvious destination is Notre Dame @ SYRACUSE

[Donerail]

Next week has a bunch of intriguing GameDay choices just at a glance. There's Oklahoma State/Kansas State, Cincinnati/UCF, Ohio State/Penn State (which almost certainly will be the FOX Big Noon Kickoff game, and thus not the GameDay game), Florida/Georgia (despite Florida's performance, big rivalry games are always favored destinations for GameDay), Kentucky/Tennessee (being a night game on ESPN might make it slightly more likely to be chosen), Michigan State/Michigan (again, despite Michigan State's struggles, it's a big rivalry game, plus it's a night game on ABC) and Pittsburgh/North Carolina.

Most obvious destination is Notre Dame @ SYRACUSE

If GameDay didn't do Syracuse/Clemson this week, which would have been a very good choice for them (and possibly a better choice than UCLA/Oregon), then they aren't doing Notre Dame/Syracuse, especially since the Fighting Irish are having a down season.

I think you misunderstand what I'm saying. GameDay has told Syracuse that they are one of a handful of schools under consideration; they are the frontrunner and will almost certainly host if Syracuse wins today.

[Donerail]

An undefeated ACC champ will not be left out of the playoff. Assuming Syracuse would coast past Notre Dame, Pitt, FSU and Wake is, however, a problem.

[Donerail]

Bo Nix is having an excellent season so far, and Oregon is on the fringes of the playoff, and should make the Rose Bowl (unless they lose the PAC-12 title game to USC/UCLA/Utah). Is this Bo Nix's Heisman moment?

No.