🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 3.0

[Mike88]

TAPgate, episode 4,627: New documents proof that indeed there was a concertation of questions and answers between the PS and the former TAP CEO before a Parliamentary committee and all was approved by minister João Galamba.

This new release of documents is creating a very bad mood between the PS and the Opposition as the Socialists accuse the Opposition of leaking "secret info" from the government:

https://twitter.com/dntwit/status/1651880821534642176

PS: "Disclosure of confidential documents is a crime"

The disclosure of the most recent batch of government documents to the TAP Committee had been surrounded in controversy since the beginning as the government refused, at first, to give the documents as they were "secret" and could harm the Government's position in the Courts. Nonetheless, the government was basically forced to hand over the documents but with a "secret dossier" stamp. The documents, as it's usual, were leaked to the press and they, as expected, show the divisions, incompetence and bad judgement of the government, and because of this, the PS is now accusing the Opposition of leaking to the press some documents in order to damage the government, adding that they want the MPs who leaked the documents to be "punished". This is creating a very bad mood in the Committee with Opposition parties suggesting that the leak could have come even from the PS.

[Mike88]

The plot thickens and it becomes weird: Infrastructure minister, João Galamba, fires his aide, which was involved in the secret meeting with the former TAP CEO, and files a police complaint against him because he stole a government laptop with confidential info.

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1651980359033147393

There seems to have been physical confrontation between the now exonerated advisor and other elements of the Ministry, inside the office, with the PSP being called to the scene.

The ongoing controversy surrounding the secret meeting with the former TAP CEO and the PS caucus had a weird and unexpected update this afternoon. At lunch time it was reported by the media that minister João Galamba had fired, last Wednesday, one of his close advisors, Frederico Pinheiro, due to his role in the controversial meeting. But, a few hours later, another report said that Mr. Pinheiro went to the Infrastructure ministry yesterday and "stole" a laptop with secret government info, which led to very tense moments in the ministry with physical aggressions and broken glass, at a point that office workers had to seek refuge. The police was called to investigate and the laptop has already returned to the State hands, but, for now, it's unclear if some info was removed from the laptop. Galamba's office has filed a complaint against Mr. Pinheiro for theft of government property.

WTF is happening in this government??

[Mike88]

The plot thickens and it becomes weird: Infrastructure minister, João Galamba, fires his aide, which was involved in the secret meeting with the former TAP CEO, and files a police complaint against him because he stole a government laptop with confidential info.

The media is reporting more details of this bizarre case surrounding the Government with the explanations of both the minister and his former advisor:

- The reason for Mr. Pinheiro firing was his notes in the secret and controversial meeting with the former TAP CEO. Frederico Pinheiro says that minister Galamba was pressuring him to lie to the Parliamentary Committee regarding the notes he took during the meeting, while Galamba says that Pinheiro refused to disclose the content or the existence of these notes and didn't respond to messages and phone calls. The minister even sent to the media a series of WhatsApp messages to prove this;

- He was fired by phone last Wednesday and on the early hours of Thursday, 27 April, at 1am, he went to the Infrastructure Ministry building to collect his things. There, he was received by some staff and advisors of minister Galamba who locked him inside the building and things escalated. Pinheiro wanted to leave with two laptops which the staff in the building rejected. Physical aggressions and discussions started, with 4 female advisors, who seem to have also been attacked by Mr. Pinheiro, taking refuge at a bathroom and calling the police and emergency services for help. Pinheiro, according to the reports, also threw his electric bicycle against a window in order to exit the building and, in the end, the police arrived but by Pinheiro's request as he was trapped inside the building;

- After this "event", Pinheiro went home with the two laptops and during Thursday morning, Galamba's office asked the Secret Services (SIS) to go to Mr. Pinheiro's house and collect the laptops. Pinheiro gave the laptops with no resistance. Galamba's office then filed a criminal complaint against Mr. Pinheiro for stealing government property and the laptops are being analysed, by the Secret Services, to see if data was removed or copied.

Pundits and the media are lost for words regarding this case, saying that this case is just a new low for the Government and that the TAP dossier is a "Greek tragedy" for the Government and PM Costa, adding that the Government seems to be "cursed". Opposition parties are suggesting that if the allegations against minister Galamba are true, he needs to resign from Government.

[Mike88]

Minister João Galamba's press conference: He says he will not resign and that he did everything he could to be truthful to Parliament.

https://twitter.com/SICNoticias/status/1652313020964519936

The Infrastructure Minister rejects the accusations made by his former advisor, Frederico Pinheiro, who accused him of wanting him to lie to the TAP inquiry commission.

João Galamba called journalists to a press conference. Here are the essentials of the minister's statements:

After 24 hours of a completely bizarre moment in the Government, João Galamba, Infrastructure minister, gave a press conference rejecting the accusations of his former advisor and confirming the physical aggressions from Frederico Pinheiro to at least two female staff members in Galamba's office. He rejected calls for his resignation saying he did everything in his power to be truthful to the Committee, never tried to hide any document and that he has proof and witnesses that show that Mr. Pinheiro is lying. He also confirmed his office communicated to the PM's office the request to use the Secret Services (SIS) in the recovery of the laptops.

[Mike88]

Besides the violence inside the Ministry and the different stories of what really happened, the use of the Secret Services is now also a big topic of discussion:

https://twitter.com/JornalNoticias/status/1652573264601047040

Galamba says that it was António Costa who sent for SIS

The use of the Secret Services (SIS) to collect the mysterious laptops that were "stolen?" by Galamba's former advisor is now becoming a big topic of debate and criticisms towards the Government. Besides the scenes of violence in the ministry building and the confusing stories from both sides, several law experts are baffled by the use of SIS to collect the laptops as the Secret Services have no power to collect things on the ground, adding that only the Prime Minister has the power over the Secret Services. During his press conference, Galamba told reports that he phoned Costa but he didn't pick up, and then called his chef of staff who advised him to call the Justice minister and after that, SIS was activated. The fact that SIS was called to pick laptops from a simple advisor is also putting law experts "scratching" their heads.

No one is understanding what happened as the story is confusing, and at the same time, humiliating and disastrous. In the PS, shockwaves of this case are already being felt with the Party's President, Carlos César, advising Costa to make a big reshuffle of the cabinet, with the risk of being heavily penalized in future elections.

[Mike88]

More reactions on the ongoing "Galambagate":

- President Marcelo has been quite low profile regarding this case, despite big pressures from the media. Marcelo started to say that any thing he had to say, he would speak first with the Prime Minister, but this morning said that the case is "very sensitive" and that a "good economy may not be enough". What does this mean? We'll see.

- PSD leader Luís Montenegro is saying that the government is "over" and that even the PS is admitting it. He added that either the government changes or the country changes the government and that the Prime Minister needs to take action as it's not possible for the current situation to last into the next 3 years;

- In the PS, discomfort with this case is clear and following the party's president, Carlos César, words, a high profile PS MP, Alexandra Leitão, also pressed that something needs to be done as the situation is becoming unsustainable, adding that government needs a "reset". PM Costa is currently on vacation and has been totally silent in the last few days;

- In the media, editorials and pundits are divided on what would be the best course of action. Some add that the current government is without solution and that snap elections may be the only way out. Others say that snap elections are a complete mistake, as it will open a complicated precedent for the future, and that Costa should do a big reshuffle or the President dismiss the Government and ask Costa to form a new one;

Almost every month or week, there's something new that puts this government on the brink of collapse...

[Mike88]

Update on the current government crisis:

- PM Costa has returned from his vacation and has reacted to the "Galambagate" by defending his minister but, at the same time, saying that trust in institutions has been damaged and that he will talk with Mr. Galamba during this Tuesday morning. On the controversial use of the Secret Services, Costa said he wasn't informed nor he had to and that the minister acted well;

- President Marcelo, according to the media, wants Galamba out of cabinet but Costa hasn't decided, yet, if he will follow the President's "advice" and fire Galamba;

[Mike88]

Infrastructure minister João Galamba just announced his resignation from the cabinet. He lasted 4 months in government.

PM Costa is expected to give a live speech within a few minutes.

[oldtimer]

Infrastructure minister João Galamba just announced his resignation from the cabinet. He lasted 4 months in government.

PM Costa is expected to give a live speech within a few minutes.

I'm becoming jealous of Portugal, their political system works better than the Greek one despite the similarities.

[Mike88]

Infrastructure minister João Galamba just announced his resignation from the cabinet. He lasted 4 months in government.

PM Costa is expected to give a live speech within a few minutes.

I'm becoming jealous of Portugal, their political system works better than the Greek one despite the similarities.

Hold your horses...

Costa does not accept the resignation of João Galamba and clashes with President Marcelo who publicly disagrees with the PM:

https://twitter.com/RTPNoticias/status/1653495115111977000

In a communication to the country this Tuesday, the prime minister announced that he did not accept the resignation of the Minister of Infrastructure, João Galamba.

The day was tense, with a lot of "secret meetings" with ministers and, at the end of the day, with a final meeting between Costa and Marcelo at the Presidential Palace. But, a "loud" silence was the result of these meetings with the media trying to find out what happened. Just after 8pm, João Galamba, minister for Infrastructures, tendered his resignation saying he was doing it because of the "perception of public opinion" of the events but that he did nothing wrong. Shortly after, Costa's office announced that the PM would speak to the country and pundits predicted he would say sorry, try to move forward and calm things. Big mistake. In his speech, Costa indeed apologized to the country about the awful events in the Infrastructure ministry building but surprised all by saying he did not accept João Galamba's resignation because he did nothing wrong, gave every single information asked and that the blame of the whole event was of the advisor. He acknowledges that his decision is against the opinion of a majority of pundits and the population, but that he had to take it, otherwise he wasn't being truthful with his conscience. Shortly after, President Marcelo's office sent out a statement which said that he "disagrees" with the Prime Minister's decision.

Reaction from pundits and commentators is that Costa instead of lowering the temperature and calm things down, he decided to escalate things and defend a cabinet minister at all costs, despite the rejection of the President. Several pundits point that a war between Costa vs Marcelo was ignited, with Costa taking on Marcelo's constant, and tiring, bluff statements about a weak Government and a possible dissolution of Parliament, and of humiliating the President. However, some also argue that this decision is dangerous and could be counterproductive.

[oldtimer]

Infrastructure minister João Galamba just announced his resignation from the cabinet. He lasted 4 months in government.

PM Costa is expected to give a live speech within a few minutes.

I'm becoming jealous of Portugal, their political system works better than the Greek one despite the similarities.

Hold your horses...

Costa does not accept the resignation of João Galamba and President Marcelo publicly disagrees with the PM:

https://twitter.com/RTPNoticias/status/1653495115111977000

In a communication to the country this Tuesday, the prime minister announced that he did not accept the resignation of the Minister of Infrastructure, João Galamba.

The day was tense, with a lot of "secret meetings" with ministers and, at the end of the day, with a final meeting between Costa and Marcelo at the Presidential Palace. But, a "loud" silence was the result of these meetings with the media trying to find out what happened. Just after 8pm, João Galamba, minister for Infrastructures, tendered his resignation saying he was doing it because of the "perception of public opinion" of the events but that he did nothing wrong. Shortly after, Costa's office announced that the PM would speak to the country and pundits predicted he would say sorry, try to move forward and calm things. Big mistake. In his speech, Costa indeed apologized to the country about the awful events in the Infrastructure ministry building but surprised all by saying he did not accept João Galamba's resignation because he did nothing wrong, gave every single information asked and that the blame of the whole event was of the advisor. He acknowledges that his decision is against the opinion of a majority of pundits and the population, but that he had to take it, otherwise he wasn't being truthful with his conscience. Shortly after, President Marcelo's office sent out a statement which said that he "disagrees" with the Prime Minister's decision.

Reaction from pundits and commentators is that Costa instead of lowering the temperature and calm things down, he decided to escalate things and defend a cabinet minister at all costs, despite the rejection of the President. Several pundits point that a war between Costa vs Marcelo was ignited, with Costa taking on Marcelo's constant, and tiring, bluff statements about a weak Government and a possible dissolution of Parliament, and of humiliating the President. However, some also argue that this decision is dangerous and could be counterproductive.

But I think we can see how this ends:

Marcelo will dissolve parliament for early elections to fire Costa from his post as PM, we can feel it will eventually happen.

And that is the refreshing part from a Greek point a view, in Greece the post of PM has too much power.

[crals]

Jesus Christ.

Despite his bluffs I doubt Marcelo actually wants to dissolve the parliament before the 2024 EU election. It's been less than a year and a half since the last election he triggered, after all. Besides, the opposition hasn't rebuilt yet and the EU election might provide an opportunity for Costa to depart to Brussels or for Passos Coelho to return to the helm of PSD, as Marcelo hopes. But it looks incresingly likely that he will have to do it before.

[Mike88]

But I think we can see how this ends:

Marcelo will dissolve parliament for early elections to fire Costa from his post as PM, we can feel it will eventually happen.

And that is the refreshing part from a Greek point a view, in Greece the post of PM has too much power.

Not sure. One thing I can say is that all of this is sad and pathetic. Costa is just doing an "act of theater" by defending Galamba, as Galamba is quite incompetent and has his share of lies and controversies. But, I tip my hat for Costa on one thing: He put Marcelo in his place. I wrote in this thread that Marcelo's loss of popularity is because he talks too much and puts his foot in his mouth all of the time, talking about how crappy the Government and the Opposition are and of discussing snap election scenarios all of the time, thus infuriating everyone in the Government and in the Opposition. Past Presidents dealt with similar situations and they were successful because they had authority. Marcelo already had his authority very damaged and after this, even more. We'll see his reaction.

Snap elections are, in my view, a stupidity. We had elections, 1 year and 4 months ago, it gave a clear majority to the PS, they have a mandate and any dissolution right now would open a complicated precedent for the future. And, what's the point of going to a snap election which would probably lead to a hung Parliament and an even more chaotic situation than the current one? Everybody is acting very childlike in Portuguese politics lately. It's quite ridiculous. We tend to joke about the UK or the US or even Israel's situation, but this isn't better.

Jesus Christ.

Despite his bluffs I doubt Marcelo actually wants to dissolve the parliament before the 2024 EU election. It's been less than a year and a half since the last election he triggered, after all. Besides, the opposition hasn't rebuilt yet and the EU election might provide an opportunity for Costa to depart to Brussels or for Passos Coelho to return to the helm of PSD, as Marcelo hopes. But it looks incresingly likely that he will have to do it before.

Totally agree with you, besides the Passos Coelho bit. As a PSD voter, I don't want him to return to the leadership. I would rather have him running for President in 2026. I don't think anything will happen, but like I wrote above, everyone is acting very childish, with no regard for the real problems of the country and just trying to save themselves, and this includes Costa and Marcelo. He could calm things down, reshuffle his cabinet which is full of "death men/women walking" and start governing for real, but no, unfortunately.

[Mike88]

Marcelo being Marcelo...

https://twitter.com/politicanatuga/status/1653868455970459649

[Mike88]

President Marcelo's speech: The President "assassinates" João Galamba, calling him irresponsible, and warns Costa that he will be much more vigilant from now on.

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1654201535243403264

Live / Marcelo attacks Galamba: "How can the minister not be responsible?"

After Costa's decision to secure João Galamba in cabinet, despite the President's opinion, and Marcelo's "ice cream moment" yesterday, the President gave a live speech at the start of the news hours and he was, well, brutal. The President started by "murdering", politically that is, minister João Galamba asking how can he be not responsible and that the people need more and better, adding also "ability, reliability, credibility, respectability and authority" is needed, in government that is. Without responsibility, he said, there cannot be authority and that an apology in not enough. The President went on to say that in the past, similar cases were resolved between PM and President, but this time wasn't the case, "It's a shame", he said. He pressed that he will not be an agent of instability and rejects, for now, any idea of snap elections, but that given the current situation of the government, he needs to be more vigilant and active every day. He finalized by saying that he expects common sense from everyone.

This... was something.

[Mike88]

Well, a summary of the ongoing TAPgate scandal, and all of its weird and twisted episodes, of the last 6 months:

Also, during today, another weird report was published, now involving the Leader of the Opposition: Luís Montenegro (PSD) seems to have not declared to the Courts a luxurious 6 story house, with 8 bathrooms, one elevator and with 830 square meters. In a statement to the press, his office say that it's false he didn't declare his estate and that the said house is referred in his declaration to the Constitutional Court. He adds that the report has an "undisguised political intent".

We'll see if this story goes to the "drawer" or if it will have new updates.

[Mike88]

Aximage poll for TVI/CNN Portugal on the government/political crisis:

Q1: What is your position on the PM's decision to not accept the resignation of minister João Galamba?

51% Disagree
26% Agree
19% Neither agree or disagree
  4% Undecided

Q2: What is your position on the President's decision to disagree with the PM?

60% Agree
21% Neither agree or disagree
17% Disagree
  2% Undecided

Q3: Is the government in a position to remain in office? (compared with December 2022)

50% No (+4)
39% Yes (-7)
11% Undecided (+3)

Q4: How should the President of the Republic proceed?

39% Keep the current government in place
27% Dismiss the government
22% Dissolve Parliament and call snap elections
12% Undecided

Poll conducted between 3 and 4 May 2023. Polled 404 voters. MoE of 4.88%

[Mike88]

Intercampus poll for CMTV/CM newspaper on the government/political crisis:

Q: In your opinion, what should the President of the Republic have done?

36.6% Dissolve Parliament and call snap elections
29.2% Keep the current government in place
25.2% Dismiss the government and ask the formation of a new one
  8.9% Undecided

Poll conducted between 4 and 5 May 2023. Polled 613 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

A bit different compared with the Aximage poll.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Things get worse for the PS government every week. Jesus Christ...

[Mike88]

Things get worse for the PS government every week. Jesus Christ...

And this affair is far from over. Minister Galamba and his former advisor, Frederico Pinheiro, are due to speak at the TAP Parliamentary Committee (CPI) in the next few weeks and more revelations could come out. The whole story of the stolen laptop with classified info is so preposterous that you can call it "Mission Impossible - Sardine version".

The general consensus is that the whole affair has completely damaged the government's image, even more, and has put both the Prime Minister and the President in a weak position at the same time, although for different reasons. Not sure also if Galamba will be able to last long as minister, but we'll see.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Things get worse for the PS government every week. Jesus Christ...

And this affair is far from over. Minister Galamba and his former advisor, Frederico Pinheiro, are due to speak at the TAP Parliamentary Committee (CPI) in the next few weeks and more revelations could come out. The whole story of the stolen laptop with classified info is so preposterous that you can call it "Mission Impossible - Sardine version".

The general consensus is that the whole affair has completely damaged the government's image, even more, and has put both the Prime Minister and the President in a weak position at the same time, although for different reasons. Not sure also if Galamba will be able to last long as minister, but we'll see.

You could make a Mission Impossible-style movie about all this.

[Mike88]

Intercampus poll for CMTV/CM newspaper:

Vote share %: (after 17.4% of undecideds are excluded)

25.7% PS (-2.4)
25.5% PSD (-1.4)
14.7% CHEGA (nc)
  9.6% BE (+1.8 )
  8.4% IL (+0.2)
  4.2% CDU (-0.6)
  2.4% PAN (-0.2)
  2.3% Livre (+1.1)
  1.8% CDS (+0.2)
  5.4% Others/Invalid (+1.3)

Poll conducted between 4 and 5 May 2023. Polled 606 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

[CumbrianLefty]

About the only thing the PS still has going for it is the failure of the PSD to set things on fire.

[Mike88]

After last week's "political crisis", the temperature has gone down considerably and thing are much more calmer, but the mood is still a bit rotten.

President Marcelo has been more careful in his tone and has been constantly refusing to comment on his relationship with the PM. Both men were seen in Spain, in an award ceremony for UN Secretary General António Guterres, but for the first time, there was little complicity and both seemed distant from one and another.

The TAP Parliamentary Committee (CPI), which is in the center of the whole crisis engulfing the government, is currently also under crisis as the chairman of the CPI, PS MP Jorge Seguro Sanches, is set to resign from the post of chairman. In the committee, PS and Opposition parties have been in constant odds because of the approval of documents, hearings and question times. The PS is accused of trying to "block" info to the CPI and of wanting to "shutdown" the Committee, while the PS accuses the Opposition of using the CPI to trash the government. MP Seguro Sanches seems to have had enough of the situations and pressures from both the PS and the Opposition.

At the same time, the Government continues to face problems in social services:

- In Education, teachers are furious with the President's signing of a Government bill that will establish new rules for teachers hirings;

- In the NHS, doctors and nurses accuse the Health minister of "camouflaging" the problems by promissing the hiring of new doctors but that these new doctors never arrive and warn about possible chaos during the summer. In fact, reports of people sleeping overnight in front of Health Centers just to get a doctor's appointment are being news;

- In the Justice system, a long strike of Court workers continues and will last all into the summer. This strike has been lasting since the beginning of the year and has cancelled, or delayed, thousands of Court hearings and rulings. Even corpse deliveries have been put on hold because of the strike;

The economy, however, is surprising everyone. In the first quarter of 2023, the economy grew 2.5% compared with 2022 and was one of the best showings in the whole EU. The IMF also updated their 2023 GDP growth forecast for Portugal to 2.6%. The government has been pressing and hailing the good economic numbers, but, other numbers aren't so good:

- Unemployment grew to 7.2% in the first quarter of the year, the worst number since late 2020, during the height of the Covid-19 pandemic;

- And the 0% VAT policy is becoming a fiasco. According to Lusa Agency, the basket of basic products with 0% VAT has increased in terms of price and is 2 euros more expensive now than it was in mid April when the policy was implemented;

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

We live in times when the political game is very similar to a game of poker, where all players try to create the impression that they have the strongest hand in the game, even if their hand is worthless, trying to get everyone else to fold, winning the pot with the aim of accumulating as many chips as possible for the next election.
This was the problem of a president who does not know how to be silent, which becomes complicated when the word of a president, in a governance regime like the Portuguese one, is his greatest asset... he always spoke too much, leading to vulgarization and consequent weakening of his own word.
In the weeks prior to this regrettable and shameful episode, the President of the Republic player bluffed too much, until the Prime Minister player decided to "call" his hand. And the country found that the President of the Republic's hand was too weak, without any value. The President of the Republic lost the hand and the Prime Minister won this pot.
But the poker game continues, it's still far from over!
In fact, the President of the Portuguese Republic, whose main mission is to guarantee the normal and regular functioning of the institutions of the Republic, is conferred very few powers. However, in addition to the magistracy of influence, that is, his word, he is conferred a single truly powerful prerogative, which is the power to dismiss the head of government, in this case the Prime Minister, and to dissolve the Assembly of Republic, the so called political "atomic bomb" that this video talks about, pushing the country towards legislative elections.
And the way this majority government has behaved until now, leads me to believe that the institutions will be anything but stable, their functioning will be anything but normal... and this leads us to the uncertainty of how this political poker game will end.
Here is the biggest problem in this country today:
hard times make strong men,
strong men create easy times,
easy times make weak men,
Weak men create hard times.
And the cycle repeats forever...
We lived difficult times during the dictatorial and fascist regime prevailing before our revolution, times that created a strong political class, with men equipped with a true sense of state. These true statesmen led the country through comparatively easy times, with accession to the former EEC, easy times which in turn led to the emergence of a weak political class. That very weak political class, which currently governs us, is creating increasingly difficult times... my hope is that this will bring us strong men again, provided with a true sense of state, capable of restarting the cycle I described above.

Came across this Youtube comment.