🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 3.0

[Battista Minola 1616]

At this rate CHEGA is going to lose of all its local councillors by the time the 2025 elections come (not that I would complain). Has it lost MPs yet?

[Mike88]

At this rate CHEGA is going to lose of all its local councillors by the time the 2025 elections come (not that I would complain). Has it lost MPs yet?

It's a possibility. In 2 years, they've lost almost half of their 19 elected councillors of 2021. In terms of MPs, CHEGA almost lost an MP last year, because of a clash between this MP and Ventura, but in the end the MP backed down and caved in to Ventura. That's the big difference between the party's caucus and the local branches. As CHEGA is a "personalistic party", Ventura controls the caucus in a tight knit, but local branches are far away from his control and are very disorganized, chaotic and with no structure at all. When he tries to control the local branches is by silencing critics and by vanishing them from the party. These kind of tactics create deep divisions in local branches that inevitably end in resignations, departures and in a few cases the total shutdown of a local branch.

[Mike88]

Not sure if this is standart in other countries, but in Portugal it's very common to put on the floor of Parliament votes of sorrow for the death of world leaders. This week there was a vote of sorrow for the death of Silvio Berlusconi, proposed by CHEGA. It was approved:

https://twitter.com/ArVotacoes/status/1672332615511146496

Draft Vote (CH) Out of grief for the death of Silvio Berlusconi

By party:

191 In Favour (106 PS, 67 PSD, 11 CHEGA, 7 IL)
  12 Against (6 PCP, 5 BE, 1 PAN)
    9 Abstention (8 PS, 1 Livre)
  18 Absent (10 PSD, 6 PS, 1 CHEGA, 1 IL)

[Mike88]

After the controversy of no major political figure attending the opening of the memorial for the victims of the 2017 Pedrogão Grande wildfire, President Marcelo privately visited the memorial. But, there's still the doubt if he will be present at the Government's ceremony next week:

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1672720112963469322

President of the Republic visited memorial to the victims of Pedrógão fires

When, last weekend, the memorial in homage of the victims of the tragic 2017 Pedrogão Grande wildfires opened, no major political figure was there and the site only received the visit of PSD, CHEGA and IL delegations. This created a lot of controversy and the government apologized for not being present at the opening but promissed a special ceremony in the memorial. A few days later, the government announced a ceremony for 27 June, but failed to inform President Marcelo. President Marcelo, in a press release, said he was made aware of the government's ceremony by the media and would rather visit the memorial in private. This happened this Saturday afternoon and the images were sent by his office to the media. The Government, at the meantime, did a "U-turn" and decided to postpone the ceremony a few hours later on 27 June, in order for President Marcelo to be present, if he wishes. On that same afternoon, President Marcelo will be returning from a trip to Italy. The ceremony will have the presence of PM Costa, the Territorial Cohesion minister, Ana Abrunhosa, and Infrastructure minister João Galamba. The presence of this last one could be a "red line" for the President. We'll see.

[Mike88]

In other news, it was reported this evening that PM Costa made a "surprise" stopover in Budapest to watch the Europa League final alongside Viktor Orbán:

In the wake of the "Falcongate", "Orbángate" or whatever, the controversial stopover in Budapest has "resurrected" the loooong rumours that PM Costa is already planning to move to Brussels next year. Today, 3 different newspapers, Público, Expresso and Observador, report that Costa is seen even more as the certain successor of Charles Michel in the Presidency of the European Council:

After a few days of more "discussions" regarding Costa's future, the PM, once again, says he's not going anywhere:

https://twitter.com/dntwit/status/1673228400348258305

"I am the guarantor of stability". Costa unavailable for European posts after June 2024 elections

During the last few days, another round of discussions around Costa's future in Europe emerged with several newspapers printing reports that sources within the EU put Costa almost certain in the European Council in 2024. His controversial trip to watch a football match with Órban also fueled those rumous but, once again, Costa has said he's going nowhere. Costa said he the only "guarantee" of stability in Portugal and that he will never accept a post that would create instability. He adds that he also wants to leave the country in a state the ensures a PS victory in the next general election.

In summary, Costa wants to go, but I don't know if he can.

[Mike88]

Interesting analysis of the polling trends in Portugal, one year and a half after the January 2022 general elections, by pollster Pedro Magalhães:

https://twitter.com/PCMagalhaes/status/1674377983069417472

Judging by the latest polls, and even taking into account that votes and voting intentions are different animals, it seems clear that the PS has lost a lot of support in the last year and a half. Anything between 10 and 15 points, depending on the polls. (1)

In summary, changes between the January 2022 exit polls and the latest polls:

By Gender:

Women: PS -13%; PSD +3%; CHEGA +5%
Men: PS -8%; PSD 0%; CHEGA +6%

By Education:

No High School: PS -15%; PSD +6%; CHEGA +3%
High School: PS -16%; PSD -1%; CHEGA +10%
College Degree: PS -12%; PSD +3%; CHEGA +5%

By Age:

18-34: PS -14%; PSD -1%; CHEGA +14%
35-54: PS -13%; PSD +1%; CHEGA +7%
55+: PS -10%; PSD +3%; CHEGA +2%

Curious to see also the new batch of polls. A new one, by Intercampus, could be released tonight. It will be interesting to see if the end of the TAP CPI and political lull, the "racist posters" incident or last week's rent support fiasco had any impact in voting intentions.

[Mike88]

Tensions in the PSD caucus continue: Caucus leader, Joaquim Miranda Sarmento, calls some PSD MPs "cowards" for using his wife as a way to attack him.

https://twitter.com/ECO_PT/status/1675142493648703492

Miranda Sarmento warns MPs that anonymous criticisms are "cowardice that only harms" PSD

During last month, the mood within the PSD caucus has gotten worse. If it wasn't great before, a series of reports in the media escalated the bad mood. During the month of June, a series of reports said the Joaquim Miranda Sarmento, the party's caucus leader, was negotiating a "clean exit" from the leadership with Montenegro and that potential candidates were coming forward in order to have a new caucus leader before the end of the summer recess by mid September. There was also a story reporting that Sarmento was going to be part of the PSD list for the EP elections in 2024. But, last week, in a caucus meeting, Sarmento put to rest any speculations and told his colleagues he was going nowhere and specially not to Europe. However, last Friday, things got worse. A report by Observador newspaper said that a few PSD MPs were, anonymously, accusing Sarmento of a conflict of interest by blocking a Parliamentary hearing of a hospital director in which Sarmento's wife was his employee. In response, Sarmento accused some PSD MPs of being "cowards" for making accusations anonymously and that he can accept criticisms for his role as party caucus leader but that these accusations are just "low and unworthy". He added that this kind of attacks only hurt the party's image.

Miranda Sarmento is perceived as a very weak parliamentary and caucus leader, but at the same time, a respected economist and seen as a potential Finance Minister in a future PSD government. Luís Montenegro has publicly defended Sarmento by saying he has full trust in him and that Sarmento is staying put in his post. We'll see how long this will last because recent events in Portuguese politics have showed that what's true today, is a lie tomorrow.

[Mike88]

Madeira regional elections called for 24 September:

President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa has confirmed 24 September 2023 as the date for the Madeira regional election. President Marcelo had met with the parties represented in the regional Parliament two weeks ago, and the preferred date was 24 September. Of the 5 parties represented, only PCP proposed 1 October.

A quick summary of Madeira election history:


Results by party represented in the regional parliament since 1976
Image link

So far, 12 parties and/or coalitions have announced their intention to contest the elections:

BE - Left Bloc
CDU - Unitary Democratic Coalition
CH - CHEGA
IL - Liberal Initiative
JPP - Together for the People
L - Livre
MPT - Earth Party
PAN - People-Animals-Nature
PS - Socialist Party
PPD/PSD.CDS-PP - Social Democratic Party/CDS-People's Party coalition
PTP - Portuguese Labour Party
RIR - React, Include, Recycle

Recent polls:

Aximage poll for DN Madeira newspaper on the 2023 Madeira elections:

Vote share %: (after 13.1% of undecideds are excluded)

54.0% PSD/CDS (-1.0)
16.8% PS (nc)
11.6% JPP (-2.2)
  4.8% CHEGA (+1.2)
  2.6% IL (-0.6)
  2.6% BE (+1.2)
  2.0% PAN (+1.1)
  1.3% CDU (-0.6)
  4.3% Others/Invalid (+0.9)

Poll conducted between 23 May and 5 June 2023. Polled 604 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

Intercampus poll for Jornal da Madeira on the 2023 Madeira election:

Vote share %: (after 23.6% of undecideds are distributed)

44.9% PSD/CDS (-0.3)
28.5% PS (-1.0)
  7.9% JPP (-0.5)
  6.2% CHEGA (-0.5)
  4.7% IL (+0.5)
  2.1% PAN (+0.4)
  1.7% CDU (+0.6)
  1.0% BE (-1.1)
  3.0% Others/Invalid (+1.9)

Poll conducted between 15 and 24 May 2023. Polled 404 voters. MoE of 4.90%.

[Mike88]

Some other stories:

- Pedro Nuno Santos, former Infrastructure minister, returned to his seat in Parliament and he had a reception, according to the media, like if the Pope was visiting Parliament. The media was heavily present in the corridors of Parliament and when he arrived, PNS said that he's just another MP in the PS 120 seat caucus that supports the government and the he's not a candidate for anything. Inside the Chamber, he was greeted by almost every single PS MP and took his seat in the back benchers. In September, he will start a TV pundit show on SIC Notícias;

- The state of the NHS is back on the news as the summer height is approaching. Like last year, there's shortage of staff in several emergency units, specialy maternity hospitals, and because of this the Government has decided to transfer pregenant women to private hospitals when NHS hospital are unavailable to receive and treat them. This policy is more directed to the Lisbon metro area:

https://twitter.com/RTPNoticias/status/1675812468860362753

There are already pregnant women being forwarded from Santa Maria to private hospitals.

However, this policy is far from being unanimous. On the right, PSD, CHEGA and IL applaude the policy with the PSD saying that the Health minister, Manuel Pizarro, is now "converging" with the PSD. But, parties on the left accuse the PS government of destroying the NHS and that they have to pick a side, the PSD policies or a public NHS. Minister Pizarro also faced protests in Serpa, Beja district, after a man died in front of the local hospital, last week, due to lack of treatment because the hospital was closed during the early hours of the morning. At the same time, the PSD presented a series of policies for the NHS. In summary, they have little surprises with the PSD policy of the NHS being complementary with the private and social sectors being the core policy. But, the party also proposed a "digital family doctor" for 3 million people and opening up the state health insurance company, ADSE, to everyone else. The goal of the plan, according to the party, is for, by 2040, Portugal to have one of the 10 best Health services in the world.

[Mike88]

TAP CPI draft report published and there's already accusations towards the PS for "erasing" any government blame:

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1676458070686277632

Whatsapp correspondence does not prove informality: it is one of the conclusions of the CPI report to TAP, which did not conclude that there is political interference as a rule

As expected, the TAP CPI draft report, written by a PS MP, is being criticized for putting aside any governmentt blame in the whole affair that shook the government for the last 7 months. In the draft report, it is said that no government pressures over the TAP administration were made, that "governing" by Whatsapp messages isn't informal or that there's no evidence of government interferences. All of the blame is put over the TAP leadership and its former CEO, Christine Ourmières-Widener. The Galambagate events are also not even mentioned in the report and if the report has no mention of any faults from the current government, it has a lot of criticisms towards the previous PSD/CDS government regarding the airline 2015 privatization.

The PS is defending the report saying its's not "the PS report" and that the party didn't received any pressures from the Government to write the report. But, the media and Opposition parties are trashing the report: PSD says the report is totally partial, the Liberals say it's a "work a fiction", BE says that the report has a total hole and that it's a "performance", whlile CHEGA labels it as an "embarrassment". Pundits argue that the lack of government faults is an attempt by the PS to "whitewash" the State's interference in the airline.

[Mike88]

President Marcelo was rushed to hospital this afternoon after fainting during a visit to an University in the suburbs of Lisbon.

His chief of staff told the media he fainted but regained consciousness shortly after. He added that the episode may have happen because of the heat or the fact he skipped a meal. Nonetheless, it was decided for him to do some tests in a Lisbon hospital.

[Mike88]

President Marcelo was rushed to hospital this afternoon after fainting during a visit to an University in the suburbs of Lisbon.

His chief of staff told the media he fainted but regained consciousness shortly after. He added that the episode may have happen because of the heat or the fact he skipped a meal. Nonetheless, it was decided for him to do some tests in a Lisbon hospital.

President Marcelo was released from hospital early this evening.

As he was leaving, he talked to reporters and explained what happened: He had a low blood pressure episode due to his habit of not eating lunch, the high temperatures and for toasting with Muscat wine in an event. He added that his tests all came up ok and that he received calls from the PM, the PSD leader and from a "mysterious candidate to be a candidate" for his office. He also revealed details of his call with PM Costa saying he told him that he had some "sad news" for him because "this is not where I die yet", jokingly of course.

[Battista Minola 1616]

due to his habit of not eating lunch

Marcelo is such a deeply weird man (but we love him for it... mostly). Like Estrella said a few pages ago, he is not unlike Charles III.

[Mike88]

due to his habit of not eating lunch

Marcelo is such a deeply weird man (but we love him for it... mostly). Like Estrella said a few pages ago, he is not unlike Charles III.

Marcelo is known for being a hypochondriac, who doesn't eat lunch, supposedly only drinks a yogurt that is usually prescribed for immunosuppressants , doesn't sleep much and is also famous for devouring books in a short space of hours.

Also, the moment:

He also revealed details of his call with PM Costa saying he told him that he had some "sad news" for him because "this is not where I die yet", jokingly of course.

https://twitter.com/politicanatuga/status/1676906629357268992

[Mike88]

UCP–CESOP poll:*

Vote share %: (after 32% of undecideds, would not vote and no response are excluded)

35% PSD (+4)
32% PS (nc)
  9% CHEGA (-2)
  6% IL (-2)
  6% BE (-1)
  3% CDU (-1)
  1% CDS (nc)
  1% Livre (-1)
  1% PAN (-1)
  6% Others/Invalid (+4)

Poll conducted between 1 and 21 June 2023. Polled 2,042 voters. MoE of 2.20%.

*Poll conducted for a study regarding voting behaviors and different scenarios of coalitions on the rightwing.

[Mike88]

6 months later, another resignation in Costa's government: Secretary of State for Defense, Marco Capitão Ferreira, resigns after several weeks of an alleged corruption case surrounding him.

https://twitter.com/cnnportugal/status/1677239834841055232

The Secretary of State for National Defence, Marco Capitão Ferreira, resigned from the Government.

This Friday, a news advanced by Expresso reports that the ruler hired a ghost advisor when he led a public company.

Marco Capitão Ferreira, Secretary of State for Defense, has resigned from the government and PM Costa has accepted. In the last few weeks, his name has been in the center of corruption accusations, although in the press statement no reason was given for his resignation. Expresso newspaper reports that while he was a manager in a State Defense company, between 2020 and 2022, he hired a "ghot" advisor and he's also accused of banking 61,000 euros for a 5-day advisory job in the Defense ministry during 2019. He had secretary since March 2022 and it's the 14th resignation in one year and a half in Costa's government.

At the same time this resignation was announced, the police raided the Defense ministry building to find documents regarding corruption investigations during a timetable that seems to include the now former Secretary Marco Capitão Ferreira.

[Mike88]

6 months later, another resignation in Costa's government: Secretary of State for Defense, Marco Capitão Ferreira, resigns after several weeks of an alleged corruption case surrounding him.
(...)
At the same time this resignation was announced, the police raided the Defense ministry building to find documents regarding corruption investigations during a timetable that seems to include the now former Secretary Marco Capitão Ferreira.

The Public Prosecutor and the Police confirmed, this early afternoon, that Marco Capitão Ferreira is now a formal suspect of corruption and economic participation in business. This announcement by the Prosecutor follows the raid this morning in the Defense ministry to collect evidences for suspicions of "criminal practices in the exercise of public functions".

[Mike88]

Intercampus poll for CMTV/CM newspaper:

Vote share %: (after 6.8% of undecideds are excluded)

25.2% PS (+0.7)
24.4% PSD (-1.9)
13.6% CHEGA (+0.7)
  9.8% IL (+1.0)
  9.5% BE (-0.7)
  4.8% PAN (+0.9)
  4.6% CDU (+0.5)
  2.5% Livre (+0.1)
  1.2% CDS (-1.2)
  4.4% Others/Invalid (-0.1)

Popularity ratings: (between 1 and 5)

2.9 Mariana Mortágua (new)
2.8 Luís Montenegro (-0.1)
2.8 Rui Tavares (-0.1)
2.8 Rui Rocha (-0.2)
2.8 Inês Sousa Real (nc)
2.6 Nuno Melo (-0.1)
2.6 António Costa (+0.1)
2.4 Paulo Raimundo (-0.1)
2.3 André Ventura (nc)

Poll conducted between 3 and 6 July 2023. Polled 623 voters. MoE of 3.90%.

[Mike88]

The resignation of the Secretary for Defense, Marco Capitão Ferreira, and its accusation of corruption by the Prosecutor continues to dominate headlines:

- The media also reports, today, that the current Foreign Affairs Minister, João Gomes Cravinho, while Defense Minister between 2018 and 2022, signed a controversial deal that involves Marco Capitão Ferreira and just 5 days before Capitão Ferreira was "hired" for a 5 day advisory job in the ministry which gave him 61,000 euros. Once again, Cravinho's name is involved in another controversy, after several during this year alone;

- PM Costa reacted in a very uncomfortable way to this whole affair. In a "casual" cabinet meeting on Saturday, Costa said that we should "let justice work", that the most important thing is continuing "governing for the people" and that people he talks on the street are worried about more important issues than corruption. However, Costa's reaction of downplaying the corruption cases within the Government is being trashed by pundits and the media;

Will there more resignations regarding this case? Who knows frankly.

[Mike88]

The "cartoon controversy": RTP, the public service network, under fire for broadcasting a cartoon that suggests that a police officer has more aim against a black man.

The cartoon broadcast by RTP:

RTP, the public service broadcasting organisation of Portugal, is under fire for broadcasting a cartoon of a police officer that seems to have more aim at shooting against a black target than a white one. The rightwing parties, PSD, CHEGA and CDS, already complained against RTP for showing the cartoon, with the PSD asking if the RTP board was aware of the content of the cartoon, as, according to the party, there needs to be a balance between "freedom of the press and the protection of other rights". CHEGA says that the cartoon is unacceptable, while CDS says that police officers were "maligned".

The Government responded in two different and contradictory ways: The Culture minister, Pedro Adão e Silva, which supervises RTP, said that humour and cartoons need to have total authonomy to mock what they want, while the Interior Affairs minister, José Luís Carneiro, which supervises the police, revealed his "dislike" of the cartoon to RTP and even accepting the explanation that the cartoon is about the French police and not the Portuguese, he warned RTP that they have a responsability "so that freedom of expression does not jeopardize the image and prestige of institutions." RTP has also responded by saying that they had no intention of inciting violence at any case. Nonetheless, the cartoon has infuriated police forces, and several police unions are filing criminal complaints against RTP.

[Mike88]

Former PSD leader Rui Rio's house and PSD headquarters raided by the police because of suspicions of abuse of power and embezzlement during Rio's leadership:

PJ searches Rui Rio's house and PSD headquarters

The Judiciary Police (PJ) made a series of raides this morning to PSD headquarters and Rui Rio's house because of suspicions of abuse of power and embezzlement during Rui Rio's term as leader of the PSD. The suspicion is that public money was used to pay party workers and party expenses. This accusation was made in 2020 by a tip from within the PSD. According to the media, Rui Rio seems to be the main suspect and other party employees are also being investigated.

[Mike88]

Former PSD leader Rui Rio's house and PSD headquarters raided by the police because of suspicions of abuse of power and embezzlement during Rio's leadership:

So far, no party has commented this raid to Rio's house and the PSD national headquarters. Only Rio reacted from his house balcony, saying to reporters, with a lot of irony, that "he's very frightened" and that "they will find out everything he robbed". The media's reaction is that if the facts investigated from Rio's tenure are what is being reported, then it's not only the PSD as all parties use Parliamentary public funds to pay party employess and other expenses. Let's see how this develops.

Update: Just Ventura, , commentated this morning's events by saying that the suspicions are serious and he asks for an investigation into all parties. Rui Rio talked now face to face with reporters and said he's not a suspect but that the goal of all of this is to damage his image adding he's "already fed up" and has no hope for the country.

[Mike88]

The Rui Rio story was quite a real roller coaster:

- It started with shock with the scene of police agents entering in Rio's house and other PSD members, plus the in the national headquarters, but soon the police and the public prossecutor started to be criticized for the "dramatization" of this morning as the magnitude of the raids, 100 police and public prossecutor agents going across the country to houses and PSD headquarters, raised eyebrows specially after the details of the accusations were made public;

- Pundits and the media are basically all defending Rui Rio, which is quite surprising, as for many in the media Rio was "the worst person in the world" and even PS members are coming out publicly defending Rio;

- The accusations towards Rio and his team, that they used Parliamentary funds to pay party employees, is common practice in all parties, left to right, and no party, with the exception of Ventura but no one took him seriously, wanted to react to the investigation. PM Costa even said that we should not make "tobacco shop trials";

- Within the PSD, surprise and total shock were the words to describe the mood, but many in the party, pro and anti Rio, are also coming out and defending Rio with some saying that the raid was an unacceptable attempt to humiliate Rui Rio. Montenegro is so far in silence and he's not expected to give any statement regarding the raids;

- Now, the topic of the financing of parties is back in discussion as, like I wrote above, the accusations towards Rio are common practice in parties. Many experts say that the current law is a total "mess" and impossible to put into practice and that it leads parties to do whatever they want;

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The Rui Rio story was quite a real roller coaster:

- It started with shock with the scene of police agents entering in Rio's house and other PSD members, plus the in the national headquarters, but soon the police and the public prossecutor started to be criticized for the "dramatization" of this morning as the magnitude of the raids, 100 police and public prossecutor agents going across the country to houses and PSD headquarters, raised eyebrows specially after the details of the accusations were made public;

- Pundits and the media are basically all defending Rui Rio, which is quite surprising, as for many in the media Rio was "the worst person in the world" and even PS members are coming out publicly defending Rio;

- The accusations towards Rio and his team, that they used Parliamentary funds to pay party employees, is common practice in all parties, left to right, and no party, with the exception of Ventura but no one took him seriously, wanted to react to the investigation. PM Costa even said that we should not make "tobacco shop trials";

- Within the PSD, surprise and total shock were the words to describe what happened, but many in the party, pro and anti Rio, are also coming out and defending Rio with some saying that the raid was an unacceptable attempt to humiliate Rui Rio. Montenegro is so far in silence and he's not expected to give any statement regarding the raids;

- Now, the topic of the financing of parties is back in discussion as, like I wrote above, the accusations towards Rio are common practice in parties. Many experts say that the current law is a total "mess" and impossible to put into practice and that it leads parties to do whatever they want;

Finally, a big drama hits Portugal and the person at the center of it is not a member of the Socialist Party!

[Mike88]

Finally, a big drama hits Portugal and the person at the center of it is not a member of the Socialist Party!

Haha. Yeah, there has to be some alternation sometimes. But, wait until the PS says "hold my beer".

In the end, the moral of this story is that Rio created so many enemies within the PSD, and in a party that has tendency to self-flagellation and revenge, he's now paying the "price" for his leadership style, as the ignition of this case came from PSD people.