🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 3.0

[Mike88]

Major development: Health minister Marta Temido resigns.

RTP and Público newspaper are reporting that Health minister Marta Temido has just tender her resignation and that PM Costa has accepted.

This resignation comes after a long summer of NHS crisis and a story, that broke this evening, that a pregnant woman died after Lisbon's biggest hospital didn't had a vacancy for her and she died from a heart attack when she was being transferred to another hospital. This is the first ministerial resignation in Costa's five month long 3rd cabinet.

After almost a year after, the report on the case that led to the resignation of former Health minister was published and there is evidences that crimes were committed:

https://twitter.com/JornalNoticias/status/1666903188111491072

General Inspection finds evidence of crime in death of pregnant woman

The death of an Indian pregnant woman, in late August 2022, that was on holiday in Portugal and that led to the resignation of Health minister Marta Temido, had a new chapter this week with the publication of the official report of the case and found evidences of crimes that were committed by hospital staff while transporting the woman. The report found that hospitals failed to give appropriate treatement to the woman and the baby and that a series of mistakes led to the fatal outcome. The Proseccutor's Office already has the report and will then decide to charge criminal accusations.

[Mike88]

Minister João Galamba received with boos in the Portugal Day celebrations in Peso da Régua, Vila Real district, this morning:

https://twitter.com/Renascenca/status/1667482098653884416

João Galamba was received with a chorus of whistles and shouts of "go away" at the ceremonies on the 10th of June.

During his speech, President Marcelo gave more "jibes" towards PM Costa, saying that sometimes we need to "cut the dead branches that reach the whole tree" and pointed that foreign relevance is worthless if problems, like poverty and inequality, continue to grow within Portugal.

[Mike88]

After the ceremony, PM Costa and his wife, Fernanda Tadeu, were also involved in a tense situation. Even though the PM was greated with a mix of applause, silence and very few boos, after the ceremony he was surrounded by several teachers who were protesting and he started arguing with a few of them. The protestors started following the PM and his wife, with posters in which Costa's face had a pig's nose and two pencils stuck in his eyes, and at a point Costa's wife shouted to protestors "Puppets! Do you know what it's like to be a teacher?", and Costa also got angry and called a protester a "racist".

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1667537724146843649

Security guards, screams and racism. The kilometer on foot that ended in tension between Costa, Fernanda Tadeu and teachers

At the same time, people on the street started also to shout against the teachers, with some "advising" the protesters to go to the private sector.

[Mike88]

Local by-elections: Ribeirão parish, Vila Nova de Famalicão, Braga district, goes to the polls on 11 June.
(...)
This will be the biggest by-election since September 2014.

Election day in Ribeirão parish, Famalicão, Braga district:

A total of 8,035 voters are registered to cast ballots in this local by-election. There are 5 lists on the ballot: PSD/CDS (Incumbent); Independent movement "Juntos por Ribeirão"; PS; CHEGA and CDU. There will be 11 precincts across the parish and polls will open at 8am and close at 7pm. Results will be published shortly after.

[Mike88]

Ribeirão parish by-election: PSD/CDS hold.

Vote share %: (compared with the 2021 election)

52.5% PSD/CDS (+9.3), 7 seats (+1)
21.1% PS (+6.8 ), 3 (+1)
20.0% Independent (-15.9), 3 (-2)
  2.5% CHEGA (+0.1), 0 (nc)
  1.8% CDU (+0.9), 0 (nc)
  2.1% Blank/Invalid (-1.2)

52.6% Turnout (-14.2)

The PSD/CDS coalition won 2,217 votes, PS got 892, Independent movement "Juntos por Ribeirão" 847, CHEGA 105 and CDU 76 votes. 47 ballots were blank and 43 invalid.

[Mike88]

After the 10 June protests, the debate is on: Are the posters with Costa's face racist or just bad taste?

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1668293604278784001

The “racist” posters with António Costa. There is a “degradation of public discourse”

The Portugal Day, 10 June, protests against Costa, in which teachers confrontated the PM and that ended with accusations of racism, have ignited the debate about the posters with Costa's face with a pig's nose and two pencils stuck in his eyes: Are they racist or just bad taste? Cartoonists are divided with some suggesting that a depicting people as animals is "dehumanizing" and could surpass "red lines", while other disagree with this position and only point to bad taste. But, all agree that the political tone is becoming very toxic. The author of the controversial posters is a teacher, member of FENPROF, close to the Communists, and denies any accusation of racism in the posters, and teachers unions are also stepping away from the posters, even though they had been around for months and used in several protests. The PS also says that the posters are racist and some PS members even argue that the tactics, and tone, of some left-wing unions are exactly the same of the far-right. On the right, some PSD members are trashing the PS and Costa's arguments of racism and are responding with the posters were former PM Passos Coelho was portrayed as Adolf Hitler and when a hanged death rabit was shown to Passos Coelho in an event.

In my opinion, the scenes from last Saturday were a "win-win" for Costa: He acomplished the Government's "goal" of putting the country against the teachers protests and demands, plus, after months of being perceived as "incompetent" and "arrogant", he's now seen as a victim of harassment, which, for the moment, is diverting attention from other matters deeply uncomfortable for the Government.

[Battista Minola 1616]

PSD threatens to end 50-year consensus regarding the Secret Services if Costa doesn't fire the head of the services and will propose changes on how the Secret Services are fiscalized:

PM Costa responded to the PSD "threat" and refuses to fire the head of the Secret Services accusing Montenegro of using the SIS for political purposes:

In a statement to the press, PM Costa responded to the PSD letter by refusing to fire the head of the Secret Services, Ambassador Graça Mira Gomes, and accused the PSD of only wanting to oppose the Government at any cost and of using the Secret Services for that purpose. The PM said he also sent 2 classified documents to prove that there was no abuse of power from the Government and that there is legal base for the Secret Services actions.

Now, how will this end? PSD breaks the consensus with the PS regarding the Secret Services, or something else happens? We'll see.

What is exactly this cross-party consensus on the Secret Services? I wasn't able to understand what the background here is, or why the PSD wants to change their fiscalization.

[Mike88]

What is exactly this cross-party consensus on the Secret Services? I wasn't able to understand what the background here is, or why the PSD wants to change their fiscalization.

The two main parties have a "pact" to accept and manage everything surrounding the Secret Services, from who will be the head of the Services and who will supervise it. But, with the Galambagate and the whole story of the stolen laptop with "secret info" that was recovered by the SIS, this "consensus" has become fragile. The Government is being very opaque in explaning what really happened on the night of 26 April, the night of the "beating" in the Infrastructure ministry building that ended with an advisor leaving with a laptop, that was afterwards, like I wrote above, recovered by the Secret Services, with several different versions that contradict everything and a refusal to prove the legality of the Secret Services actions, as the Secret Services don't have any powers to recover things. The PSD wants Costa to fire the head of the Services, something Costa has refused to do because, according to him, everything was done "by the law" and accuses the PSD of using SIS for political purposes. There is the suspicion that the Secret Services were used to make a "favour" to the Government, and that the Government's vagueness, added with the sense of a "cover-up", fuels the whole suspicion which is creating this clash between PS and PSD.

[Mike88]

TAP CPI: Pedro Nuno Santos' disgraced former secretary, Hugo Mendes, admitted errors in his passing as secretary, and gave a "response" to PM Costa.

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1669092117874896896

He was one of the most talked about names since the beginning of the Commission of Inquiry to TAP and, in his tense hearing (especially with the PSD), Hugo Santos Mendes admitted that the compensation of half a million to Alexandra Reis was “reasonable”

The Alexandra Reis scandals seems so far away now, after the series of scandals engulfing the government, that we almost forgot about it, but, this afternoon, Pedro Nuno Santos' disgraced former secretary of state, Hugo Mendes, was heard at the TAP CPI. The hearing was tense, Mendes was clearly a man harassed and wanted to put the record, and his reputation, straight. He started by explaning that he made errors, like the "pressure" to change a flight of President Marcelo, or the warning that he gave to the company that he, Hugo Mendes, was the only "entrance door" of TAP to the Government. He praised his work as secretary, pointing to the good financial numbers of TAP, similar to what Pedro Nuno Santos did last week, and criticized the PSD for its negative tone towards the airline. After he was grilled by MPs, he become a bit more confusing and had difficulties in explaning some issues, but admitted that the 500,000 euros payment to Ms. Reis was "acceptable" but he blamed the lawyers of both sides for the legal mess in the end. About the recent Galambagate, Mendes said that Frederico Pinheiro, the advisor in the middle of the whole affair, is hardworking, calm, smart and alwats had a smile on his face, and he also commenteted on PM Costa remark that Mendes was "inept" to be part of the government by saying that if he was member of the government, it was because the PM accepted.

Overall, not much from this hearing other than the tense tone. The media is divided if it went well for Hugo Mendes or not, but also point that the pattern of an "amateur" government was proven once more. Tomorrow is Pedro Nuno Santos turn to be heard at the TAP CPI.

[Mike88]

Aximage poll for DN Madeira newspaper on the 2023 Madeira elections:

Vote share %: (after 13.1% of undecideds are excluded)

54.0% PSD/CDS (-1.0)
16.8% PS (nc)
11.6% JPP (-2.2)
  4.8% CHEGA (+1.2)
  2.6% IL (-0.6)
  2.6% BE (+1.2)
  2.0% PAN (+1.1)
  1.3% CDU (-0.6)
  4.3% Others/Invalid (+0.9)

Poll conducted between 23 May and 5 June 2023. Polled 604 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

[Mike88]

An update on the Madeira elections that, besides the polls, have had, until now, very little coverage:

The election date is yet to be announced, but it's expected to be announced during next week. President Marcelo will meet with the parties represented in the regional assembly and decide on a date. As of now, the most likely date for the elections is 24 September, with PSD, PS, CDS and JPP in favour of that date. Only PCP wants elections on 1 October.

[Mike88]

GfK/Metris/ICS/ISCTE poll for Expresso newspaper/SIC TV:

Vote share %:

31% PS (+1)
30% PSD (nc)
13% CHEGA (nc)
  5% BE (nc)
  5% CDU (nc)
  4% IL (nc)
  2% PAN (nc)
  1% CDS (-1)
  1% Livre (nc)
  3% Others (nc)
  5% Blank/Invalid (nc)

Popularity ratings: (between 0 and 10)

6.5 Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (+0.2)
4.8 António Costa (+0.2)
4.1 Catarina Martins (nc)
3.9 Luís Montenegro (-0.3)
3.3 Rui Tavares (-0.2)
3.3 Inês Sousa Real (nc)
3.2 Paulo Raimundo (nc)
3.2 Rui Rocha (+0.1)
3.0 André Ventura (-0.4)

Government's approval:

71% Bad/Very bad (+7)
25% Good/Very good (-4)
  4% Undecided (-3)

Poll conducted between 13 and 28 May 2023. Polled 1,204 voters. MoE of 2.80%.

[Mike88]

Tomorrow is Pedro Nuno Santos turn to be heard at the TAP CPI.

PNS part 2: Pedro Nuno Santos appeared at the TAP CPI and he surprised by his cool posture and his "jibes" against his sucessor, João Galamba.

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1669441169938436135

Pedro Nuno Santos stresses differences with Galamba: "When I decide to resign, I resign, period".

Former Infrastructure minister Pedro Nuno Santos hearing at the TAP CPI was highly expected and even though no new info was revealed, his posture, tone and selfcontrol were a surprise and gave hints about his future. Nuno Santos started by admitting that a lot of errors were made but that he already paid a political price by resigning from cabinet and that always acted in "good faith". Almost always calm, everytime he started "boiling", he calmed down himself, for 8 hours PNS was grilled for many statements and positions that he's still unable to clearly explain. He said that sometimes "the truth is more implausible than a lie", and that his busy schedule made him overlook things and forget decisions that he then had to look back, even though the Alexandra Reis case was the only, in terms of payments, in which he was brifed. He went on to say he wasn't fully aware of the deal between Ms Reis and the TAP CEO and that he accepted as it was, adding that the "whirlwind" of news during the days of his resignation made him forget to check his past decisions as minister regarding the case. He praised Frederico Pinheiro, the man in the center of Galambagate, and, like his secretary yesterday, told he was intelligent, hard working and a very respectable person. He added that he and Pinheiro talked after the 26 April night events, by phone. He also "trashed" Galamba's argument that his office was a "mess" in organization. Regarding PM Costa, he didn't want to talk too much about him, only saying he "had and still has a good relationship" with the PM. He seemed to give another "jibe" against Galamba when he said that "when I resigned, I resigned, period".

The media's reaction to the hearing was that PNS was in full campaign mode. His unusual calm and serene posture, unlike his usual "furious" posture, was the first hint but the polite way in which he adressed everyone, sometimes with jokes, surprised all. However, pundits point that his answers had a lot of problems with the truth and that he may recuperate his image, but the stain of an immature, unprepared and naive politician is there. All agree that if even with the scandal that hit him, he was still the favorite to succeed Costa in the PS, after this hearing no more doubts remain. But, becoming one day Prime Minister is a whole other discussion...

[Mike88]

TAP CPI is finally over: Finance minister Fernando Medina was the last person inquired and told MPs that he would have liked the country to be spared from the whole scandal.

https://twitter.com/24sapo/status/1669791266043731970

Medina ended the long commission of inquiry into the management of TAP. Final report will be released in July. What was said today

After 4 months of long inquiries, controversial statements and a government that almost was "put on its knees", the TAP Parliamentary Committee (CPI) has finally ended. The last person heard was Finance Minister Fernando Medina. Nothing new came out of his hearing, of all of the cabinet, or former cabinet members, involved in the TAPgate, he has been seen as the least affected for a while now. Medina told MPs that he chose Ms. Alexandra Reis to become Treasury Secretary because she had merits, but refused to say who "advise" him to nominate her. He said he was informed of her TAP compensation payment by newspapers and realised that Ms. Reis had to leave the government but vented that he would liked the country to have been spared from the whole affair. He went on to say that he fired the then TAP CEO because the decison to compensate Ms. Reis was illegal and contradicted the former TAP CEO statements regarding the time line of the events that led to the firing of TAP's top leaders. Then, tensions rose between Medina and PSD MPs for a series of matters: the use of Secret Services in the Galambagate and/or the "legal base document", that didn't exist, to fire the then TAP CEO. Regarding his relationship with Pedro Nuno Santos, Medina said it was "good" but that it also had moments of tension.

The final report of the CPI is expected to be voted on 13 July. Some pundits argue that the final report may be approved only by the PS and rejected by the rest of the Opposition, but, only by then we'll we know.

[Mike88]

In other news, it was reported this evening that PM Costa made a "surprise" stopover in Budapest to watch the Europa League final alongside Viktor Orbán:

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1669767891024072704

Costa made a stopover in Budapest to watch the Europa League final with Orbán and did not put the event on his public agenda

The two men were photographed, side by side, watching the match last 31 May. Costa made this stopover in Budapest on his way to the Second European Political Community Summit in Chișinău, Moldova. The media tried to have a comment from the PM's office but no one answered. President Marcelo however, and out of the blue, decided to comment this news: He told reporters that Costa informed him of this stopover because he wanted to give a hug to José Mourinho, Roma's coach, and that it might give him some luck. The irony is, it didn't.

Seriously, not sure if Marcelo's statement is true or just another jibe against Costa.

[VPH]

Apparently there’s a new party on the right called Nova Direita led by Ossana Liber (Angolan Portuguese woman, not the typical face of Portugal’s right wing). She used to be in Aliança, which bombed badly as an anti-Rui Rio option for disillusioned PSD voters. Their platform is somewhat vague but seems souveranist, somewhat critical of Ukraine aid, supportive of measures to raise fertility, and pro-nuclear. Not sure they’ll make a dent in the polls considering Chega likely has the target audience locked down.

[Mike88]

Apparently there’s a new party on the right called Nova Direita led by Ossana Liber (Angolan Portuguese woman, not the typical face of Portugal’s right wing). She used to be in Aliança, which bombed badly as an anti-Rui Rio option for disillusioned PSD voters. Their platform is somewhat vague but seems souveranist, somewhat critical of Ukraine aid, supportive of measures to raise fertility, and pro-nuclear. Not sure they’ll make a dent in the polls considering Chega likely has the target audience locked down.

Not even legalized yet. She filed her party to the Constitutional Court a few months ago but the Court has yet to give the final OK. I would say that, so far, it's a fringe party on the right and will have no electoral impact until the 2024 EU elections. If the party runs in those elections, it could have an impact as the vote is more scattered and "militant" but all depends on a series of factors from the campaign, the state of country by then, media coverage and recognition, etc. But, in the short/medium term, no impact at all on other parties on the right. Adding to the above, she got just 1,000 864 votes in the her 2021 run for Lisbon city hall.

[VPH]

Apparently there’s a new party on the right called Nova Direita led by Ossana Liber (Angolan Portuguese woman, not the typical face of Portugal’s right wing). She used to be in Aliança, which bombed badly as an anti-Rui Rio option for disillusioned PSD voters. Their platform is somewhat vague but seems souveranist, somewhat critical of Ukraine aid, supportive of measures to raise fertility, and pro-nuclear. Not sure they’ll make a dent in the polls considering Chega likely has the target audience locked down.

Not even legalized yet. She filed her party to the Constitutional Court a few months ago but the Court has yet to give the final OK. I would say that, so far, it's a fringe party on the right and will have no electoral impact until the 2024 EU elections. If the party runs in those elections, it could have an impact as the vote is more scattered and "militant" but all depends on a series of factors from the campaign, the state of country by then, media coverage and recognition, etc. But, in the short/medium term, no impact at all on other parties on the right. Adding to the above, she got just 1,000 votes in the her 2021 run for Lisbon city hall.

Yeah it seems pretty fringe and if I had to guess will go the way of PND (which was at least hilariously weird sometimes) and Aliança. But who knows, it could be the next MPT in the European elections if everything goes right for them.

[Mike88]

Apparently there’s a new party on the right called Nova Direita led by Ossana Liber (Angolan Portuguese woman, not the typical face of Portugal’s right wing). She used to be in Aliança, which bombed badly as an anti-Rui Rio option for disillusioned PSD voters. Their platform is somewhat vague but seems souveranist, somewhat critical of Ukraine aid, supportive of measures to raise fertility, and pro-nuclear. Not sure they’ll make a dent in the polls considering Chega likely has the target audience locked down.

Not even legalized yet. She filed her party to the Constitutional Court a few months ago but the Court has yet to give the final OK. I would say that, so far, it's a fringe party on the right and will have no electoral impact until the 2024 EU elections. If the party runs in those elections, it could have an impact as the vote is more scattered and "militant" but all depends on a series of factors from the campaign, the state of country by then, media coverage and recognition, etc. But, in the short/medium term, no impact at all on other parties on the right. Adding to the above, she got just 1,000 votes in the her 2021 run for Lisbon city hall.

Yeah it seems pretty fringe and if I had to guess will go the way of PND (which was at least hilariously weird sometimes) and Aliança. But who knows, it could be the next MPT in the European elections if everything goes right for them.

A "MPT" situation in the next EU election is very difficult because of CHEGA and IL, as the rightwing vote is currently very scattered, and the leftwing vote is also scattering again. But, no one knows how long CHEGA is going to last, because unlike other similar EU parties, CHEGA doesn't have a structure or leaders to represent the party, it's all "God Ventura". So, if the day comes of Ventura bowing out from politics, CHEGA would almost immediately cease to exist, and the "leftovers" could be picked by parties like Nova Direita, not excluding PSD, IL and CDS, of course. But, these are just ramblings of mine. The most likely scenario is this new party to get something between 0-0.5%.

[Mike88]

In other news, it was reported this evening that PM Costa made a "surprise" stopover in Budapest to watch the Europa League final alongside Viktor Orbán:

The PM's office has finally responded to this "controversy": Costa was invited by the President of UEFA to watch the game and took advantage of his stopover in Budapest.

After a few days of silence after this case broke, Costa's office explained that the PM had been invited by the President of UEFA to watch the Europa League final, between Roma and Seville, in Budapest. On route to the  Second European Political Community Summit in Chișinău, Moldova, Costa's office added that the PM took advantage of the stopover in Budapest and accepted the invitation and received all the protocol treatment by UEFA, seating next to Viktor Órban whom he was a normal working relantionship, the office says.

However, no mention of why was this stopover made a secret and Marcelo's rambling explanation was also basically sent to the trash can as there are no mentions of Mourinho or luck.

[Mike88]

2024 EP elections: Voters will be able to vote in any polling station across the country.

https://twitter.com/SICNoticias/status/1671258965672378368

The new application will allow voters to vote anywhere in the country, using an electronic device. Data synchronization will prevent a voter from voting more than once.

The "complicated" date of next year's EP election, in between national and local holidays in Portugal, forced the Government to implement measures to ease and/or facilitate voting. Thus, the government announced this Tuesday that in the 2024 EP elections, voters will be able to vote anywhere across the country. Voters rolls will be digitalized and a voter just needs to present its ID card and will be able to cast a ballot kilometers away from its usual precinct. Not sure whether these procedures will be available in future national elections.

[Mike88]

In other news, last week, the President of the European Parliament, Roberta Metsola, visited Portugal and had meetings with both President and PM and even took part in a Parliamentary debate between all parties in the Chamber. The debate covered a lot of topics but what made headlines was the discussion about the war in Ukraine. Metsola also gave "jibes" against CHEGA because of their immigration position, but it was her tough stance against a PCP MP words regarding the Russian invasion of Ukraine that raised eyebrows.

The PCP spokesperson, Paula Santos, said it was time to stop inciting the war in Ukraine and that the EU is spending billions in warfare at the same time it refuses wage and pension increases policies. Metsola didn't liked the Communist's remarks and "invited" the PCP MP to say those exact same words to Ukranian MPs who have not seen their wifes for long time, to kids who cannot go to school and that this not a case of sit and negociate but of forcing Russia to leave Ukraine. Her response was widle applauded by PS, PSD, CHEGA and IL MPs.

In response to Metsola, the PCP said this:

https://twitter.com/Lusa_noticias/status/1671202942119030813

PCP asks Metsola if she is not bothered by a power in Kiev that "murders the population"

In the press conference, MP Paulo Santos also pressed that the Ukranian government is supported by "nazi forces" and that it blocks freedom of opinion and promotes prisons and assassinations.

[Mike88]

The controversial housing package is back on the news as the PS is submitting a series of bills that will "ease", and in some cases erase, the impact of the package. In summary, another U-turn. Some of the bills submitted by the Socialists:

- Golden Visas will not be completely over. Despite the original announcement, Real Estate funds will still be able to buy houses in Portugal and will maintain tax benefits;

- The most controversial part of the package, the mandatory lease of vacant houses, is also eased and it only be used in "excepcional cases" and unlike what the original government draft proposed, local governments will not suffer any tax punishement if they refuse to implement the proposal;

- Airbnbs (Local Accommodations) will have to pay a tax but of 15%, rather than the 20% proposed by the Government, and the process to shutdown a Airbnb in a condo was made more complicated as it will need a 2/3 majority of tenants;

- But, the controversy of the day was regarding the most popular, basically the only one, in the whole package, which was rent support:

https://twitter.com/dntwit/status/1671417179181551616

Internal Finance dispatch amends decree-law and orders cut in income support

The rent support subsidy would help poorer families to pay for their rents, but, a "secret" internal memo from the Finance ministry was sent to the ministry staff warning them that the formula to calculate who's entitled to received the support was changed and that fewer people would receive the support and those who receive will receive less. Without the formula correction, the measure would cost 1 billion euros, rather than the 240 million euros with the correction, a cut of 760 million euros. Many families are telling the media they are outraged with this decision, as some lost the possibility of receiving the support and other are facing a 50%, or more cut, of this support.

[Mike88]

CHEGA now has 14 councillors, after 5 were "expelled" or left the party since October 2021. The party elected 19 councillors in the September 2021 local elections.

And 7 have already left the party, and an eighth may be on the horizon:

CHEGA continues to lose councillors after councillors. This time it was in Serpa, Beja district, where the party sole councillor, Ana Moisão, left the party and became an Independent. She accused the party of being plagued with deep internal disagreements and also said she was informed that the party was forbidding members to even talk to her. Moisão is now the 7th CHEGA councillor to leave the party and of the 19 councillors election in 2021, just 12 remain, but an eighth is on the horizon: A CHEGA councillor in Vila Verde, Braga district, Fernando Silva, is also clashing with the party and is considering leaving the party.

[Mike88]

In other news, it was reported this evening that PM Costa made a "surprise" stopover in Budapest to watch the Europa League final alongside Viktor Orbán:

In the wake of the "Falcongate", "Orbángate" or whatever, the controversial stopover in Budapest has "resurrected" the loooong rumours that PM Costa is already planning to move to Brussels next year. Today, 3 different newspapers, Público, Expresso and Observador, report that Costa is seen even more as the certain successor of Charles Michel in the Presidency of the European Council:

- Público newspaper:

Brussels will pressure Costa to go to the European Council
“He will be the president of the European Council”. The phrase comes from a person in a high position in Brussels and is formulated with a curious absolute certainty, when there is still almost a year to go before the European elections.
(...)

- Expresso newspaper:

There are those in the PS who see him “imprisoned” to commitments indoors. And who asks: “If the stars in the EU align, will he have a retreat?”
(...)
Since then, there are almost as many times that Marcelo has spoken of early elections as Costa has used to guarantee that he will serve the four years, in such a way that his trip to Europe should not even be a topic. But the truth is that it continues to be, both in Brussels and in Lisbon. “Metsola told anyone who wanted to listen that they could count on António”, reports a confidant of the Prime Minister to Expresso, referring to the recent presence of the President of the European Parliament in Portugal.
(...)

- Observador newspaper:

The European context is increasingly favorable for Costa to be on the short list for the presidency of the Council. Attentive president maintains alert of dissolution if prime minister emigrates to Brussels.

Even if it is a quasi-lottery, the stars are increasingly lining up so that António Costa can become president of the European Council in 2024. The President of the Republic, Observador knows, is already doing the math on the European chances of António Costa without moving a line in what he said on the day of his inauguration: any exit to Europe means dissolution and early elections. What has changed in recent months is that Costa is increasingly the favourite.
(...)