🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 3.0

[Mike88]

Some other stories:

- The fire, last week, in a Lisbon building crowded with immigrants that killed 2 and injured 14, ignited the discussion about immigrantion and the living conditions of immigrants that arrive in Portugal. Lisbon mayor Carlos Moedas (PSD), in an interview to Público newspaper, criticized the current immigration law and proposed changes like bringing back immigrant quotas and that only immigrants with valid working contracts can come to Portugal. PSD leader Luís Montenegro agrees with some parts of Moedas proposals, adding that Portugal needs to "regulate" immigration and that an agency to project, attract and welcome immigrants is a PSD contribution to this debate. However, left parties are criticizing the PSD ideas, with the PS saying that Moedas is just "shaking the water off the hood" and refusing to take responsibilities, while BE accuses PSD of siding with "xenophobic" proposals;

- Once again, TAP airlines is making news. The long saga involving the country's main airline company, that has created political storms and "hurricanes" in the last few years, now goes back 8 years, to the time it was privatized, in 2015, by the then PSD/CDS government. The 2015 privatization was always seen as "sketchy", to say the least, because no one wanted to buy TAP and a buyer was found at the last minute. But now, it's revealed that the winner, David Neeleman, bought TAP using... TAP's own money. In order to buy TAP, David Neeleman, owner of several American airline companies, made a deal with Airbus in which Airbus would give him a loan of 226 million euros and, in exchange, Mr. Neeleman, when he had control of TAP, would buy 53 new planes from Airbus costing 20% more than those on the market. In summary, it was TAP paying herself for her own capitalization, which violates the law and created a financial hole of 400 million euros in TAP. The then government was fully informed, it seems, and approved the deal. This is now becoming a political match, with the PS trashing the previous PSD/CDS government, while PSD says that everything should be investigated, but that it was the PS decision to nationalize TAP. The next episodes will be broadcast soon;

[Mike88]

Some updates:
(...)
- Tensions between teachers and the government continue. Everyday, schools across the country are closed because of the teachers strikes and protests. Another protest against the government is schedule for next Saturday, 28 January, in Lisbon city;

Teachers protest gathers around 80,000 protesters in a walk between the Education ministry and the Presidential palace:

3rd teachers protest, in less than a month, gathers more than 150,000 protesters in Lisbon city according to unions:

https://twitter.com/cnnportugal/status/1624483617953964035

Tens of thousands of teachers once again gathered in Lisbon in protest. See images of the demonstration.

For the 3rd time in less than a month, teachers across the country gathered in Lisbon city to protest against the government. Negotiations between unions and the government continue but, until now, they have remained stalled with unions saying that the government isn't budging and the government, on their part, saying that progress is being done. In today's protest in Lisbon, more than 150,000 protesters, according to Unions, went to the streets after several weeks of strikes in schools across the country. New negotiations are set for next week, with the government optimistic about their outcome, but unions doubt any change in the government's position and, during this Saturday protest, warned that if the government doesn't change position, new strikes and protests will start in March.

At the same time the negotiations are happening, tensions between teachers and the government are increasing because of the imposition of minimum services, by Arbitral tribunal order, due to strikes, that will force every teacher to work at least 3 hours each day between 16 and 24 February. School directors warn that these kind of decisions will only aggravate the tense climate between both sides.

[Mike88]

Local referendums:

Lisbon parish of Benfica votes in a referendum to approve, or not, the installation of parking meters in the parish.

Around 32,000 voters in the Lisbon city parish of Benfica are casting ballots, this Sunday, to approve or not, the installation of parking meters in limited duration parking zones. This basically means that voters will decide if the controversial city's parking managing company, EMEL, enters in the parish. The parish president says he will respect the result, but EMEL has opted to remain silent and didn't respond if it will respect the result. Polls opened at 8am and will close at 7pm in more than 40 precincts across the parish.

At around 1pm, more than 5,000 ballots had been cast, meaning a 16% turnout so far.

[Mike88]

Local referendums:

Lisbon parish of Benfica votes in a referendum to approve, or not, the installation of parking meters in the parish.

Benfica parish votes overwhelmingly to reject parking meters, but just less than 30% turned out to cast a ballot:

79.8% No, 7,532 votes
20.2% Yes, 1,902

  0.4% Blank/Invalid ballots, 42

29.7% Turnout, 9,476

[Mike88]

BE leadership: Catarina Martins announces she is leaving the leadership.

https://twitter.com/TSFRadio/status/1625460254250090504

After little more than a week of reflection and after three terms at the head of the party, Catarina Martins announces that she will leave the leadership of the Left Bloc (BE).

Catarina Martins, current BE leader, just announced she will not run for another term as party leader in the BE's convention schedule for late May. In a press conference in the party's headquarters, this morning, Ms. Martins said that it's time for someone else to lead the party and that the party needs to respond to the "end of the political cycle" with the current degradation of the PS majority government. She will remain in Parliament and says she's confident in the future of the party. Catarina Martins was leader since 2014.

Possible candidates for the leadership are MPs Mariana Mortágua and Pedro Filipe Soares. Update: MP Pedro Filipe Soares just announced he will not run for the leadership.

[Mike88]

DA office ruling says that BE and CHEGA are "flour from the same bag":

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1625469754839375872

Justice: MP asks for Nuno Afonso’s acquittal and says that BE and Chega are “flour from the same bag”

Former CHEGA deputy and member Nuno Afonso is facing trial because of remarks he made, last year, regarding BE. Last year, Nuno Afonso wrote on social media that BE was "instrumentalizing" people and ethnicities for their own campaign, that supports violence and that it's a party of very dangerous people. BE filed a lawsuit against Nuno Afonso, but the DA prosecutor is proposing the absolution of Nuno Afonso because, according to the prosecutor, BE and CHEGA are basically the same. In her ruling, the prosecutor says that both CHEGA and BE support a culture of hate and division, and that there are no differences between them, citting examples of speeches from André Ventura and Mariana Mortágua. The BE lawyer rejected the DA's conclusions and added that the ruling "stains" the reputation of the DA office. Nuno Afonso's lawyer, on the other hand, supports the ruling of the DA. A Lisbon court judge will now have the final say.

[Mike88]

BE leadership: Catarina Martins announces she is leaving the leadership.
(...)
Possible candidates for the leadership are MPs Mariana Mortágua and Pedro Filipe Soares. Update: MP Pedro Filipe Soares just announced he will not run for the leadership.

The media is reporting that Mariana Mortágua is going to run for the leadership and that the announcement will be made in the next few days. SIC Notícias is reporting that Mortágua is seen as a "unity" candidate that could unite the main factions within the party. This points that Mortágua could be the sole candidate to the leadership, but we'll have to wait and see.

[Mike88]

Montenegro, and also Moedas, criticized because of their immigration positions, even within the PSD:

https://twitter.com/dntwit/status/1625287901050445827

Almost "xenophobia" and "integrationist arrogance": Montenegro criticized even in the PSD

The criticisms to both Montenegro and Carlos Moedas, Lisbon mayor, positions started last week, with leftwing parties accusing both of siding with Ventura on immigration and of being "xenophobic" and divisive. But, the criticisms are also surging within the PSD. A former deputy leader under Rui Rio, André Coelho Lima, said that Montenegro's words are "unintelligent". Montenegro proposed to attract immigrants that are closer to our culture and identity, while Carlos Moedas proposed that only immigrants with a valid working contract could enter the country. The current law allows immigrants to enter the country for 6 months and find a job. President Marcelo also warned both by saying that very "emotional declarations could become irrational", and advised them to have good judgement because the "copy always loses to the original". To the press this afternoon, Montenegro downplayed Marcelo's words but was quite angry regarding the accusations of "xenophobia" coming from within the PSD, asking reporters to tell him "who said it".

This discussion is already becoming a trainwreck, left to right.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

That Benfica referendum is kind of surreal, but I've learnt to expect this from local votes in Portugal. Benfica is of course very famous for its football team - I wonder, is it a richer or poorer side of the city?

On a related note, I suppose this is a good place to mention I am going on holiday to Lisbon at the end of the month with some friends.

[Mike88]

That Benfica referendum is kind of surreal, but I've learnt to expect this from local votes in Portugal. Benfica is of course very famous for its football team - I wonder, is it a richer or poorer side of the city?

On a related note, I suppose this is a good place to mention I am going on holiday to Lisbon at the end of the month with some friends.

Well, everybody here hates parking meters so when local governments ask voters about this issue, the response is pretty well certain, and it wont be close.

Benfica is a normal middle class area of the city. It has the big Columbus Shopping Mall, and both residential neighborhoods and apartment tower buildings. It's not as rich as, for example, S. Domingos de Benfica or Avenidas Novas, but it's wealthier than its neighbour, Amadora city.

Hope you enjoy your holiday.

[Mike88]

Government extinguishes the Secretary for Agriculture post after the vacancy left by Carla Alves' 25 hour term:

After extinguishing the Secretary for Agriculture, the government nominated a new Secretary:

The minister of Agriculture announced she has picked Gonçalo Caleia Rodrigues, chairman of Higher Institute of Agronomy at the University of Lisbon, to be the new Secretary for Agriculture. This also means the government will be forced to change, again, the government structure laws after "extinguishing" the post just 3 weeks ago. The swearing ceremony will be held tomorrow afternoon.

[Mike88]

Some updates:
(...)
- Tensions between teachers and the government continue. Everyday, schools across the country are closed because of the teachers strikes and protests. Another protest against the government is schedule for next Saturday, 28 January, in Lisbon city;

Teachers protest gathers around 80,000 protesters in a walk between the Education ministry and the Presidential palace:

3rd teachers protest, in less than a month, gathers more than 150,000 protesters in Lisbon city according to unions:
(...)
New negotiations are set for next week, with the government optimistic about their outcome, but unions doubt any change in the government's position and, during this Saturday protest, warned that if the government doesn't change position, new strikes and protests will start in March.
(...)

No deal, again, between unions and the government. And a DA legal opinion regarding the strikes is creating more "bad" mood between both sides:

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1625987824221560832

Asking for minimum services for a 2-day strike is “illegal and unworthy of democracy”, says Mário Nogueira. Agreement between parties “far” from happening

As expected the meetings, this afternoon, between teachers unions and the government ended with no deal, but with more bad mood between both sides because of a DA legal opinion on the legality of some union strikes. The legal opinion says that even if the strikes are legal, the way teachers are on strike could be violating the law, as they don't follow what the strikes notice show. The STOP union, which is the main target of this legal opinion, accuses the minister of "cutting short" the info in the legal opinion, while the minister says that STOP union is persuing "self-service" strikes, which are illegal. Adding to this, the government's proposal of more minimal services in schools is infuriating unions, which they say it's illegal. More negotiations will happen Friday and also next week.

[Mike88]

Intercampus poll for CMTV/CM newspaper:

Vote share %: (after 17.5% of undecideds are excluded)

28.4% PS (-2.7)
27.6% PSD (-1.9)
14.1% CHEGA (+3.4)
  9.0% IL (+1.4)
  5.8% BE (-1.5)
  4.7% CDU (+1.0)
  2.9% PAN (-0.7)
  1.6% Livre (-0.8 )
  1.1% CDS (+0.4)
  4.8% Others/Invalid (+1.5)

Popularity ratings: (between 1 and 5)

2.8 João Cotrim Figueiredo (nc)
2.8 Luís Montenegro (-0.1)
2.7 Rui Tavares (nc)
2.6 António Costa (nc)
2.5 Inês Sousa Real (-0.1)
2.5 Catarina Martins (-0.1)
2.4 Nuno Melo (-0.1)
2.4 André Ventura (+0.1)
2.3 Paulo Raimundo (-0.1)

Poll conducted between 3 and 10 February 2023. Polled 602 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

[Mike88]

PM Costa announces package to deal with the housing crisis:

https://twitter.com/SICNoticias/status/1626274159553642496

Mandatory lease of vacant houses. The measures approved by the Government to face the housing crisis.

With Portugal facing a big housing crisis, with sky high prices, taking into account the low wages of the country, and few houses on the market, PM Costa announced this afternoon a series of policies to deal with the ongoing crisis. The plan has several policies from the housing market, simplification of building permits, the end of golden visas and it's worth 900 million euros. The main policies are the following:

- Convertion of the use of commercial properties or services into residential use;
- Construction permits with just the term of responsibility of the designers;
- Mandatory lease of vacant houses;
- 0% tax in housing sales to the State;
- End of golden visas, however, the ones still in existence can be renovated;
- Banks are mandated to offer a fixed rate and protection against interest rate hikes;
- Poorer families will have rent support if their effort rate is greater than 35%;

There are some legal doubts regarding some policies, mainly the mandatory lease of vacant houses, but PM Costa assures that it's legal and doesn't violate the Constitution. Left to Right, parties are trashing Costa's plan: basically all parties say that there's "too much State" in the policies, but with rightwing parties saying that the PM is siding with the "far-left" and attacking private property rights, while leftwing parties say that the State is now proposing to do things that are responsibility of the private sector.

Pundits are giving mix reviews to the plan: If it has some positive points like aid for poorer families with rents and simplification of construction permits, it has wrong policies like the mandatory lease of vacant houses, which some doubt the PM's insistence that it's legal.

[Mike88]

More reactions to the Government's housing plan:

- Owners are furious with the government and are threatening with the Courts if some proposals in the plan go ahead. Owners associations are accusing the government of "post 1974 revolution" policies and that in Portugal the rule of law is still in force. On their part, tenants associations are applauding the policies but still want to "wait and see";

- Local accommodation owners are also furious as some of the plan's proposals are to ban new local accommodation buildings and rise taxes for owners who don't change their buildings to normal rentals. Several are considering "boycotting" the Catholic World Youth Days and block tourists from having accommodation during those days. The association of local accommodation owners will still meet with the government, but the mood is very bad;

- In an interview to TVI/CNN Portugal, PM Costa tried to explain the plan, saying he "will not rob houses" but that it's only a administrative ownership. He added that a lot of people need homes and that it's not right to have empty houses, pressing that the State will pay for the renovations and then rent it at market prices;

This plan is going to create a lot of debate. We'll see how much of it lasts until March, when it's expected to approve a definitive one.

[Mike88]

President Marcelo to award Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky with the Portuguese Order of Freedom. PCP says that this decoration is an "affront to democrats":

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1626341876176502786

PCP criticizes decoration to Zelensky. Ukraine's president "personifies xenophobic, warmongering and anti-democratic power"

President Marcelo announced, earlier this week, that he will award the medal of the Portuguese Order of Freedom to President Volodymyr Zelensky when he travels to Ukraine during this year. This decision was applauded by basically all parties with the expection of PCP, which is labeling this announcement as an "affront to democrats". If when he was chosen, the new PCP leader Paulo Raimundo seemed to have "softened" the party's stance on Ukraine, now that stance seems to have suffered a setback. The party says this award is an "outraged" because Volodymyr Zelensky "personifies a xenophobic, warmongering and anti-democratic power", adding that anyone who has fought for freedom and against the fascist regime in Portugal should be furious with this announcement.

[DavidB.]

What's Chega's Russia stance? Would PSD enter a coalition with them?

[Mike88]

What's Chega's Russia stance? Would PSD enter a coalition with them?

CHEGA supports Ukraine and is totally against Russia's actions. The party has had numerous proposals like declaring Russia a "terrorist state" and that Portugal should always help Ukraine in the war effort. This is, at least, Ventura's position, which is enough when you're talking about CHEGA.

Regarding the PSD-CHEGA relationship, well... it's complicated. The PSD runs away from that discussion like the devil from the cross, and is very often accused of being vague regarding the matter. The party says it's not the time to discuss these kinds of deals, and Ventura, of course, uses the PSD vagueness to propose a coalition with cabinet posts. Luís Montenegro, on his part, rejects any "contraptions" deals with CHEGA and says he will only accept being PM if the PSD is the most voted party. What does this mean? It has several interpretations. So, the most likely answer to your question is no, but everything is so vague that the message received could be exactly the opposite.

[Mike88]

Government plans to legalize "en masse" almost 300,000 illegal immigrants until the end of March:

https://twitter.com/Lusa_noticias/status/1626580303807668234

SEF prepares new model to regularize the situation of thousands of immigrants

With the deadline of extinction of the current Border Control Agency (SEF), set for 31 March 2023, fast approaching and with thousands of legalization processes in halt, the Government has decided to use several pavilions across the country, used for the Covid-19 vaccination process, to, in just over a month, legalize almost 300,000 illegal immigrants in Portugal. Within these 300,000 immigrants, 150,000 illegal immigrants from Portuguese speaking countries will be automatically legalized and be given a Social Security and NHS number. The government says that this process will be "very challenging" but hopes it will be successful. Immigrants will be called to legalize their situation during March, however, several immigration associations are reacting with a "wait and see " approach, warning that many immigrants may have changed their address and numbers in the last few years and could be unresponsive, adding that they have "reservations" about the efficiency of this campaign.

The current border control agency (SEF) will be substituted by a new one called APMA, Portuguese Agency for Migration and Asylum. This reform, started in 2021, is quite controversial with many arguing about its ultimate goal and because it has had several delays and setbacks during the last two years.

[omar04]

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/portugal-ends-golden-visas-curtails-airbnb-rentals-address-housing-crisis-2023-02-16/


Portugal ends Golden Visas, curtails Airbnb rentals to address housing crisis

[Mike88]

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/portugal-ends-golden-visas-curtails-airbnb-rentals-address-housing-crisis-2023-02-16/


Portugal ends Golden Visas, curtails Airbnb rentals to address housing crisis

Yes, I posted the main policies of this program a few posts above. However, the program itself is being trashed by almost everyone. Several media outlets are labeling the Housing program as "The Soviet Package", "PREC 2.0", and "Venezuela of Europe", which are not very flattering titles to say the least. The main criticism towards the plan is the mandatory lease of vacant houses, which many, including some Socialists, say it could violate property rights and, at the same time, gives a wrong message to property owners. In fact, the talking point "the State is going to take away your property" is being said a lot, and the fact the plan is very vague and the government isn't explaining it well, or at all, gives more boost to this talking point. Rightwing parties are pressing on that point, while leftwing parties accuse Costa of completely resigning to the State responsibility of ensuring social housing, and point to several broken promisses, of the last 7 years, in which not one social housing project was initiated. Only 2% of the housing stock in Portugal is social.

Regarding local accommodation, or Airbnb rentals, there are also some criticisms as the plan, again very vague, seems to run over local government regulations, that were already imposing limits to Airbnb rentals, and that limiting them will not put more houses on the market as many are 2nd homes or unable to house families. Plus, many also point to the fact the Airbnb rentals amount to 40% of all tourist accommodation in Portugal, and that stong limitations and/or barriers could hurt the Tourism economy, which is the "golden goose" of the Portuguese economy.

The government says that all policies proposed are up for discussion for a month and they are open for changes and improvements. The Tourism secretary even said he's open to changes in the local accommodation (Airbnb) proposals, while several pundits and experts are predicting that several policies will go to the trash can until mid March.

[Mike88]

Police raids Lisbon city hall because of suspicions that Fernando Medina signed contracts with the goal of illegally financing the PS:

Finance minister Fernando Medina on the verge of being an official suspect in the investigation surrounding the illegal financing of the PS. Medina says that any such allegations are "totally false".

https://twitter.com/ECO_PT/status/1627771578862690304

Medina will be made an official suspect, CNN Portugal reports

This evening, TVI/CNN Portugal reported that Finance minister Fernando Medina is on the verge of becoming an official suspect in the investigation about illegal contracts and hirings while Medina was mayor of Lisbon that had the suspected goal of financing the Socialist Party. The media outlet says that "sources" within the police reported that several suspects were questioned in the last few weeks, and one of the main suspects, Joaquim Mourão, a PS high member from Castelo Branco that Medina hired to Lisbon city hall, denounced Medina saying he helped him in the forgery of contracts, in order to appear legal, for Lisbon city hall. In response, Fernando Medina said he has no knowledge of any such allegations, and if they exist, they are totally false.

[omar04]

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/portugal-ends-golden-visas-curtails-airbnb-rentals-address-housing-crisis-2023-02-16/


Portugal ends Golden Visas, curtails Airbnb rentals to address housing crisis

Yes, I posted the main policies of this program a few posts above. However, the program itself is being trashed by almost everyone. Several media outlets are labeling the Housing program as "The Soviet Package", "PREC 2.0", and "Venezuela of Europe", which are not very flattering titles to say the least. The main criticism towards the plan is the mandatory lease of vacant houses, which many, including some Socialists, say it could violate property rights and, at the same time, gives a wrong message to property owners. In fact, the talking point "the State is going to take away your property" is being said a lot, and the fact the plan is very vague and the government isn't explaining it well, or at all, gives more boost to this talking point. Rightwing parties are pressing on that point, while leftwing parties accuse Costa of completely resigning to the State responsibility of ensuring social housing, and point to several broken promisses, of the last 7 years, in which not one social housing project was initiated. Only 2% of the housing stock in Portugal is social.

Regarding local accommodation, or Airbnb rentals, there are also some criticisms as the plan, again very vague, seems to run over local government regulations, that were already imposing limits to Airbnb rentals, and that limiting them will not put more houses on the market as many are 2nd homes or unable to house families. Plus, many also point to the fact the Airbnb rentals amount to 40% of all tourist accommodation in Portugal, and that stong limitations and/or barriers could hurt the Tourism economy, which is the "golden goose" of the Portuguese economy.

The government says that all policies proposed are up for discussion for a month and they are open for changes and improvements. The Tourism secretary even said he's open to changes in the local accommodation (Airbnb) proposals, while several pundits and experts are predicting that several policies will go to the trash can until mid March.

Has the opposition made any connections between the immigration amnesty and the housing crisis programs? Also, how poor is Portugal and the Portuguese compared to the rest of Europe? Is it common for workers to make less than a thousand euros monthly?

[Mike88]

Has the opposition made any connections between the immigration amnesty and the housing crisis programs? Also, how poor is Portugal and the Portuguese compared to the rest of Europe? Is it common for workers to make less than a thousand euros monthly?

Well, with few houses at affordable prices, immigrants have a hard time finding accommodation. That's why there's a lot of reports of the inhuman conditions that many immigrants live in Portugal: from the crowded Airbnb rentals, many of them owned by immigrants themselves, in which up to up 30 people sleep in a tiny room, to the agriculture plantations in the Alentejo region in which immigrants also live in very poor conditions, some of them almost touching slavery. So, the housing crisis is also linked to immigration as if there's already few houses for the average Portuguese to rent or buy, just imagine for immigrants. Homelessness and tent camps have increased a lot in the last few years.

Portugal has the lowest wages in Western Europe. Up to 25% of all workers, around 1 million, earn the minimum wage which, by 2023, stands at 760 euros per month. Adding to this, more than 50% of all workers earn less than 1,000 euros per month.

[Mike88]

UCP–CESOP poll for RTP and Público newspaper:

Vote share %:

32% PS (-6)
31% PSD (+1)
11% CHEGA (+3)
  8% IL (+2)
  7% BE (+2)
  4% CDU (-1)
  2% PAN (+1)
  2% Livre (nc)
  1% CDS (nc)
  2% Others/Invalid (-1)

Government popularity:

52.2% Bad/Very bad (+15.2)
38.9% Average (-11.1)
  7.0% Good/Very good (-3.0)
  1.9% Undecided (-1.1)

Poll conducted between 9 and 17 February 2023. Polled 1,002 voters. MoE of 3.10%.