🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 3.0

[crals]

Gotta love it when the trash takes itself out. So glad those nutjobs aren't proping up the government any longer.

[crals]

Observador newspaper, for some reason, made a vote compass for the PSD leadership ballot.

Here it is: https://observador.pt/interativo/votometro-responda-ao-questionario-e-descubra-qual-o-candidato-a-lider-do-psd-mais-proximo-de-si/

My results were:

62% Luís Montenegro
49% Jorge Moreira da Silva

68% Jorge Moreira da Silva
53% Luís Montenegro

[crals]

Montenegro finally made it. It was the wrong choice imo and I don't think I will keep voting for PSD under him. But I wish him the best of luck rebuilding the Portuguese center-right, he will need it.

[crals]

I'm amazed at how fast this government is crashing and burning. The absolute majority did them no good

[crals]

About the "Chega strategy", it's something that has bothered me for a long time. The amount of attention the party gets from the media and left-wingers has always been totally dispropportionate to their size (only 1 MP until very recently, but it started to some extent before they even entered parliament) and contributed to their great result. Part of it surely was just sensationalism and extreme naivety on how to deal with the populist right, but at times it was clearly an attempt by some of the left to boost themselves in the short term at the possible expense of Portuguese democracy in the long term.

[crals]

Wait, are both the PM and Economy called Antonio Costa?

Yup. Very common name and surname.

[crals]

So Chega got less votes than their list had candidates? That's something.

[crals]

Smart of Pedro Nuno Santos to jump from this sinking ship. It's clear that Costa is over and we are getting an early election sooner or later.

[crals]

It's funny how Montenegro attempted to oust Rio for being too tame against the PS and turned out to be even tamer. He's invisible and has no charisma, while PSD has no clear strategy or message for the country and is still divided between true right-wingers and PS-lite. Unless they get their act together we are going to continue to see the growth of the far-right and libertarians and an eventual right-of-center majority will be absolute chaos.

It's hard to have faith in the political future when both government options are such a mess...

[crals]

If the Madeiran government doesn't get an outright majority it seems they'll be able to easily carry on by reaching a deal with IL, avoiding the Chega question. Albuquerque isn't in any real danger.

[crals]

What a strange shift--if anything I would have expected it to be low-education middle-aged and older voters in rural areas, following the trends we've seen in other Western European countries. I know Portugal is somewhat of an anomaly with less educated voters still supporting the left, but it's no longer the anomaly it was until recently when it comes to right-wing populists in parliament.

Just guessing, but perhaps owing to the later entry into democracy, trends that happen elsewhere come later? PPD/PSD speedran the transition from left-leaning social democracy to neoconservatism from Carneiro to Cavaco that other Christian Democratic parties underwent during a longer period postwar.

It is younger people in urban areas who suffer the most from chronically low wages, ridiculous rent prices and the cost of living in general.

Of course, you could argue Chega's policies will do nothing to alleviate those issues, but a vote for Chega is a middle finger to the PS government and that's the message they want to pass.

[crals]

Jesus Christ.

Despite his bluffs I doubt Marcelo actually wants to dissolve the parliament before the 2024 EU election. It's been less than a year and a half since the last election he triggered, after all. Besides, the opposition hasn't rebuilt yet and the EU election might provide an opportunity for Costa to depart to Brussels or for Passos Coelho to return to the helm of PSD, as Marcelo hopes. But it looks incresingly likely that he will have to do it before.

[crals]

Miguel Albuquerque probably regretting his pledge to resign if he doesn't get an absolute majority... RTP saying PSD/CDS is likely to get 23 rather than the necessary 24 seats.

[crals]

Well, I'm glad Albuquerque walked back from that dumb promise. The result is extremely underwhelming for the PSD (and Montenegro should be VERY worried) but he will still be able to govern.

I assume the most likely partner for PSD/CDS would be JPP? IDK the intricacies tbf

JPP is sort of PS-lite, I'd say. IL seems to be the most likely option. PAN might also be up for it.

[crals]

Ther is absolutely no way to avoid early elections. But my guess is that Marcelo will allow some time for the PS to select a new leader.

[crals]

Ther is absolutely no way to avoid early elections. But my guess is that Marcelo will allow some time for the PS to select a new leader.

Why is there no way to avoid early elections if the PS still has the absolute majority that it just won in an upset last year?

The President can dissolve the parliament and he has indicated that he would do it if Costa ever leaves. Even if he hadn't, there is no legitimacy left to the PS majority at this point so the unwritten rules of our democracy would prompt him to.

[crals]

The PS right now is in complete shock and all kind of options are being talked about. Pedro Nuno Santos is seen as the most likely successor, but, there is also talk that this may not be his time yet, and then there's Medina. Not sure who could lead the PS at this point. The country is still grasping what just happened, and the Socialists even more.

The nature of the "PNS vs Medina soap opera" as you called it suggests this might be the perfect opening for a dark horse candidate, but I cannot think of any plausible one.

Mariana Vieira da Silva (minister of the presidency) would be my guess, although she is not entirely uncontroversial either. There's also Ana Catarina Mendes (minister of parliamentary affairs).

Medina would be an absolutely terrible choice imo, as he is also up to his neck in scandals and would send the message that the PS has learned absolutely nothing from this.

[crals]

The PS right now is in complete shock and all kind of options are being talked about. Pedro Nuno Santos is seen as the most likely successor, but, there is also talk that this may not be his time yet, and then there's Medina. Not sure who could lead the PS at this point. The country is still grasping what just happened, and the Socialists even more.

The nature of the "PNS vs Medina soap opera" as you called it suggests this might be the perfect opening for a dark horse candidate, but I cannot think of any plausible one.

Mariana Vieira da Silva (minister of the presidency) would be my guess, although she is not entirely uncontroversial either. There's also Ana Catarina Mendes (minister of parliamentary affairs).

Medina would be an absolutely terrible choice imo, as he is also up to his neck in scandals and would send the message that the PS has learned absolutely nothing from this.

I'm not sure. Both have little or no support within the PS base. My guess is that, of all the cabinet members, the strongest candidate would be the Internal Affairs Minister, José Luís Carneiro. He has been quite low profile, which is a net plus in this government, but I don't think he has that ambition for the moment. I agree regarding Medina, regardless the scandals around him, he has a problem that all polls point: He's unlikeable, and in politics that's fatal.

Let's not forget another snap election in the horizon: Azores is on the brink of a snap election also in January/February 2024, if the regional budget falls in two weeks. However, not sure how much impact will the national scene have in the position of the regional party branches.

Well, all the candidates have issues. PNS managed to distance himself from the government to some extent, I think it will be him.

[crals]

PSD's own leader is involved in a scandal. They will struggle to present themselves as the moral high ground to PS. I would say that poll is even worse for PSD than for PS.

[crals]

PSD's own leader is involved in a scandal. They will struggle to present themselves as the moral high ground to PS. I would say that poll is even worse for PSD than for PS.

What scandal? His house issue in Espinho? Regardless of scandals or not, the problem of Montenegro is that he's... how can I put this, well, flimsy. But, I agree that this poll is bad for the PSD, but it's what I expected. And let's not rule out that the PS could pretty well win the March election.

Yes, the weird stuff that happened in Espinho, although that is of course less serious than the PS scandals. I find him quite uncharismatic as well and lacking a vision for the country. Wouldn't be terribly surprised if the PS somehow comes out on top again.

[crals]

It's not just any suspicious, it's an ongoing criminal investigation on the PM himself. There's no way a government could go on under these conditions in any civilized country . Costa did the bare minimum by resigning and it's a pity Galamba seems unable to do the same.

[crals]

The braindead conspiracy theories in this thread are really not necessary. The mistake made by the prosecutors is embarrassing, but it's not like the reason for Costa's investigation was that one mention.

[crals]

Because the biggest cleavage in Portuguese politics is still class (economics)

[crals]

And Pedro Nuno Santos it is. Tbh I think Carneiro would have been a better option for both PS and the country, but it was a very steep hill to climb.

[crals]

PPM's monarchism is irrelevant. In the Azores (the only place in the country where they are relevant) they are a fairly standard center-right party with a green-ish agrarian focus.