🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 3.0

[Mike88]

Azores government: IL and Independent MP "tear" the agreement with the PSD. Snap elections in the horizon?

In the end, it wasn't CHEGA to slam the door, it was the Liberals. This afternoon, the IL-Azores announced it was tearing up the deal with the PSD-Azores because of deep disagreements on transport policy and nominations for public offices. Shortly after, the dissident CHEGA MP, Carlos Furtado, also announced his exit from the deal, accusing the regional government of treating him like a "minor parent". The President of the regional government, José Manuel Bolieiro, hasn't reacted yet but a reaction is expected during the day. With this decision, the Azores government has 27 seats, against the 28 seats of PS, BE and PAN. Will snap elections be inevitable? Or will the government continue by negotiating law by law with IL and the Independent MP? We'll see.

There are already reactions:

- PSD leader and President of the Azores, José Manuel Bolieiro, says he will carry on with his government program and be a "stability reference". He adds that everyone should take responsibility for their own actions and that he doesn't not fear snap elections;

- PS leader Vasco Cordeiro says IL just passed a death certificate to the government and that the PSD government has been unstable since the beginning;

- PPM leader, Paulo Estevão, accused the IL MP of being a "scorpion" since the start of the deal and that the Liberals were always a source of "permanent instability", adding that this "political number" was just a matter of time;

- CHEGA accuses IL of being irresponsible and CHEGA leader André Ventura advises Bolieiro to propose a vote of confidence in the regional Parliament;

- At the same time, IL national leader, Rui Rocha, says that the end of the PSD-IL deal doesn't mean that there will be no political solutions and there could be case by case negotiations between PSD and IL;

[Mike88]

More updates on the ongoing Azores government crisis:

https://twitter.com/PortugalElects/status/1633559610341613578

- President Bolieiro has rejected the idea of a motion of confidence pressing, again, that he's a reference of stability and not instability;

- A motion of no confidence is being discussed by the BE. The party's regional leader told CNN Portugal that a motion against the PSD led government is on the table;

- In the PS, caution, caution, caution is the mood. The party has yet to decide if it will present its own motion against the government as it fears it could be seen as "power hungry" and then punished electorally;

- Pundits and commentators are totally surprised by these events. The editor of Açoriano Oriental newspaper told TSF radio that he doesn't understand what happened in the last 3 months, since the budget approval,  for IL and the Independent MP to end the agreement with the PSD. He adds that all seems very strange;

[Mike88]

Housing package update:

The government proposed housing package enters in its final week of public discussion with more controversies and criticisms. The government has been announcing more details of the package but doubts and questions of feasibility remain and, in some cases, even increase. The most controversy proposal, the mandatory lease of vacant buildings, remains in the spotlight: The government wants to force water and gas companies to do a list of houses with no consumption. This rule already exists, but only if local government asks for. Another detail in the proposal is that owners will have 100 days to put vacant houses to use or on lease, or the State will force the lease of the property. And another detail of the housing package is that people with savings of more than 29,786 euros will not receive any benefits from the package's banking housing credit aid.
(...)

Update: Government decides to extend public discussion of the most controversial policies in the package.

https://twitter.com/SICNoticias/status/1633888154221527040

At the request of the National Association of Portuguese Municipalities, the Government decided to extend the public consultation period of the Mais Habitação programme.

At the request of the mayors association (ANMP), the government has decided to expand the period of public discussion of the most controversial policies in the housing package. The discussion was due to end next Monday 13 March, but it's now extended to 24 March. Only the financial support for families will go ahead after 13 March.

However, the debate and criticisms regarding the policies continues, with the mandatory lease of vacant building in the forefront. Regarding this, Lisbon city was announced that if the mandatory lease of vacant buildings passes, it will not be implemented in the Capital because City Hall doesn't have enough staff to analyse every single building. Councilwoman Filipa Roseta (PSD) said, in an interview to Público newspaper, that the mandatory lease will not happen in Lisbon, adding that it brings more problems than solutions. She also added that the focus of the PSD-led local government is to implement the funds of the EU Recovery plan in building and recovering houses.

[Mike88]

- A motion of no confidence is being discussed by the BE. The party's regional leader told CNN Portugal that a motion against the PSD led government is on the table;

- In the PS, caution, caution, caution is the mood. The party has yet to decide if it will present its own motion against the government as it fears it could be seen as "power hungry" and then punished electorally;

Neither the PS or BE are planning to present a motion of no confidence against the PSD government. Both parties argue that it's the PSD coalition that needs to guarantee it can offer stability and not the Opposition parties.

I get the sense that no one really wants an election because a) the PSD isn't sure it will have the result they want; b) the PS isn't sure they can even win; and c) the minor parties may be afraid of being punished for either forcing an election or bringing down the government. Let's wait for the next chapters.

[Mike88]

7 years as President: President Marcelo gives interview in which he labels the PS majority as "tired" and "same old" and that 2022 was a "lost year".

https://twitter.com/JornalNoticias/status/1633938480022843392

Marcelo says that the Government was born with a "reheated" and "tired" majority

To mark his 7 years as President of the Republic, President Marcelo gave an interview to RTP1 in which the main topics of the day, the government problems, TAP airlines, the ongoing strikes and protests and the Church abuse scandals were on the table. Marcelo started to label the PS majority as "tired" and same old, same old as it was born after 6 years of government wear, and said that he and Costa have different views on the state of the country. He went on to say that the teachers protests are fair, that the government should negotiate and that teachers should have some of their frozen career progressions given back. However, he warned that public opinion could become tired of several strikes and protests and turn against the teachers. The President also talked about housing and compared the two packages on the table, one presented by the government and the other by the PSD. The President seemed to ridicule the proposal for mandatory lease of vacant buildings and that local government has no means to do what the government wants. The PSD proposal of local government taking over State owned property was also "criticized" by the President.

Regarding TAP airlines, the President trashed the "levity" of how people are nominated to government and that ministers, pointing to Fernando Medina, need to realize what they did in the past and be careful. The government problems were also discussed with the President talking about "private polling" that show a rapid unpopularity of the government, just like public polls show, but added that there's still no real alternative as the rightwing, though with a majority in all polls, don't get along and that the PSD still represents a "weak alternative". The President ended the interview by talking about the Catholic Church sexual abuse scandals saying he was "deeply disappointed" by the Church's response and that it's incomprehensible that the Church doesn't respond for its actions.

[Mike88]

- A motion of no confidence is being discussed by the BE. The party's regional leader told CNN Portugal that a motion against the PSD led government is on the table;

- In the PS, caution, caution, caution is the mood. The party has yet to decide if it will present its own motion against the government as it fears it could be seen as "power hungry" and then punished electorally;

Neither the PS or BE are planning to present a motion of no confidence against the PSD government. Both parties argue that it's the PSD coalition that needs to guarantee it can offer stability and not the Opposition parties.

I get the sense that no one really wants an election because a) the PSD isn't sure it will have the result they want; b) the PS isn't sure they can even win; and c) the minor parties may be afraid of being punished for either forcing an election or bringing down the government. Let's wait for the next chapters.

48 hours after the crisis broke, the crisis seems to be over: Bolieiro gives a press conference saying he will continue to govern and negotiate law by law.

President José Manuel Bolieiro gave a press conference this morning in Horta city in which he said he would continue governing and would negotiate law by law with parties which includes the 2024 budget. He pressed on the idea that he will not create instability adding he's calm and serene and that the "break up" with IL and the dissident CHEGA MP will not change his posture of dialogue and concertation. Bolieiro also highlighted the words of President Marcelo in yesterday's RTP interview, in which Marcelo said that snap elections are not in the horizon in the Azores.

[Mike88]

Government receives the report and decides to fire the current TAP administration:

The General Inspectorate of Finance (IGF) report on the controversial firing of former Treasury secretary Alexandra Reis from TAP airlines, was presented this Monday by Finance minister Fernando Medina and his cabinet colleague Infrastructure minister João Galamba. The report, like it was already published, says that Ms Reis firing was illegal and that her exit deal has to be nullified. Adding to this, the report states that Ms Reis has to give back 450,000 of the 500,000 euros in the compensation she received. Facing these results, the government decided to fire the Chairman and CEO of TAP airlines, Christine Ourmières-Widener, for just causes and that no monetary compensations will be given to them. The new TAP CEO will be the current SATA Azores airlines CEO, also in a process of restructuring after a near bankruptcy, Luís Rodrigues and he will accumulate both the CEO and Chairman posts.

TAP CEO may have been fired by the government, but a cause for her firing is still being discussed:

https://twitter.com/ECO_PT/status/1634109713628516355

Medina is still looking for just cause after dismissing TAP's CEO

If the government wanted the TAPgate to subside in the political debate, things are turning out differently, a bit as expected. The still TAP CEO Christine Ourmières-Widener is already preparing a legal battle against the government, and it is being reported this Friday, that the government may have fired Ms Widener for just cause but, they don't know what that is, yet. Jornal Económico reports that the Finance ministry is talking to lawyers in order to determine a clear just cause to fire the TAP CEO. This is creating surprise in many people inside the case as it doesn't make sense to fire, publicly, someone for a certain reason, and only after that thinking for a reason for that firing.

At the same time, the 2015 privatization of TAP airlines continues to be a source of a "mud fight" between PS and PSD, with the first accusing the Social Democrats of a "trainwreck" privatization, and the latter accusing the Socialists of a "disastrous" nationalization. In the middle of this, the former TAP owner, David Neeleman, wrote an opinion piece in Expresso newspaper where he says that Costa was fully aware of the "shady" Airbus deal to finance TAP airlines, as was also former PM Passos Coelho. He goes further to say that TAP, by 2015, was worth "less than zero" and that the money was needed to pay wages and maintain the airline at float, adding that Costa nationalized TAP only for "ideological reasons".

The next episodes will be broadcast shortly.

[Mike88]

Update:

After the Azores crisis, in which is "forcing" the PSD to become more critical of IL and CHEGA, labeling them as "irresponsible", "childish" and "unreliable", is proof to pundits that, as of now, any serious deal between the rightwing parties in almost impossible. On their part, CHEGA is "squirming" itself, almost to a pathetic degree, by saying they always fought for stability in the Azores, unlike the Liberals. Yeah sure, whatever.

But other issues have risen in the political debate:

- The rise in food prices has become a major topic of debate and of a "war of words" between the government and food distributors. The government is putting on the ground inspectors to check food prices and are accusing corporations of high profit margins, well above 50%, and of forcing unnecessary high food prices on consumers. Food inflation in Portugal is at 21.5%, well above Spain's 16.6% or France's 14.5%. On their part, food distributors accuse the government of "propaganda" and of wanting to damage the reputation of the sector, adding that they had lower profits in 2022. Farmers also accuse the government of not helping them as some production costs have risen almost 90% and many farmers are at the brink of bankruptcy. Farmers, however, also accuse food distributors of speculation. With this war of accusations between all sides, the government is saying that everything is on the table, from limiting profit margins to price fixing. Food distributors are warning the government about the vicious results these kind of policies would have;

- The NHS continues to make headlines for its lack of staff and confusion in terms of policy. The reorganization of the chaotic emergency rooms in the Lisbon metro area is creating confusion with a lot of "u-turns", "setbacks" and so on. The plan to close some emergency rooms during the night in Lisbon is being criticized and government announcements are being delayed and/or contradicted by reality. For example, the CEO of the NHS decided to close the pediatric emergency of Loures hospital during weekend nights, but this clashed with the minister's promise to local mayors that the emergency wouldn't be closed. Now, the minister wants to reverse the NHS CEO's decision. In another Lisbon hospital, emergency team doctors have resigned due to lack of staff and no working conditions, but the minister is blaming people for using too much, and unnecessarily, emergency rooms;

[Mike88]

Government receives the report and decides to fire the current TAP administration:

TAP CEO may have been fired by the government, but a cause for her firing is still being discussed:
(...)
The next episodes will be broadcast shortly.

Today, another chapter was released with the revelation that Alexandra Reis actually wanted to resign from TAP in December 2021, but Pedro Nuno Santos didn't respond to her emails and, therefore, the fuse had just been ignited:

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1636112578895282178

Alexandra Reis put her position available to Pedro Nuno days before he gave the green light to TAP to negotiate her departure

The media is reporting this evening that the whole controversy of the 500,000 illegal compensation for the exit of Alexandra Reis from TAP airlines, who, as a result of all of this, would then last just less than a month as Treasury Secretary, could have been avoided if... Pedro Nuno Santos (PNS) had open and read his emails dropbox. In late 2021, Ms. Reis actually wanted to resign because there were new shareholders, the State had took 100% control of the airline, and she was open to leave the airline, thus sending an email to PNS team. But, PNS and his team forgot to read her emails and Ms. Reis proposal was forgotten, just a month before the "fatal" negotiations of her departure from the airline. If the email had been responded, Ms. Reis would, probably, have left TAP airlines with no compensation and the whole controversy that led to a massive government crisis, with the resignation of PNS and 2 secretaries of state, plus a massive erosion of the government's popularity and authority would all... have been avoided.

Pedro Nuno Santos reputation is being tarnished day after day, and the PS is allowing it. What could this mean for the party's future? We'll see.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

So... is the conclusion of the crisis in the Azores simply that Bolieiro will go ahead with a minority government with case-by-case support? I don't see how anyone benefits from this.

[Mike88]

So... is the conclusion of the crisis in the Azores simply that Bolieiro will go ahead with a minority government with case-by-case support? I don't see how anyone benefits from this.

Yep, exactly. It an almost similar situation to the one in 1998 when the CDS-Azores dropped their support from then President Carlos César (PS) and tried to forge a PSD-CDS majority deal, but that was blocked by President Sampaio. Cesár then governed in a minority with a case-by-case support and in the 2000 elections, he was able to win with a majority.

Like I wrote above, the PSD maybe isn't sure it would get a strong majority, one that would give them an opportunity to "get rid" of CDS and PPM, which seem to be the reason of all the crisis in the government due to their exaggerated weight in government affairs; the PS isn't sure if they can even win, specially in a time when the national PS is very unpopular; and the minor parties fear being blamed for igniting a political crisis. Until the 2024 budget discussion, probably nothing will happen but that budget discussion will be crucial to see if there will be snap elections in January 2024 or, as schedule, in October 2024.

[Mike88]

Government receives the report and decides to fire the current TAP administration:

TAP CEO may have been fired by the government, but a cause for her firing is still being discussed:
(...)
The next episodes will be broadcast shortly.

Today, another chapter was released with the revelation that Alexandra Reis actually wanted to resign from TAP in December 2021, but Pedro Nuno Santos didn't respond to her emails and, therefore, the fuse had just been ignited:

Another weird story: The still TAP CEO car was set on fire during last Wednesday morning. The Police is already investigating possible arson:

https://twitter.com/Record_Portugal/status/1636293075063504897

Off the field - Judiciary Police investigate arson in TAP CEO's BMW

If the TAPgate continues to "roll heads", tarnishing government reputations and hurting taxpayers, today it had yet another, and weird, chapter. The car used by the still TAP CEO, Christine Ourmières-Widener, was set on fire in a Lisbon suburb last Wednesday morning. Witnesses say that they saw a group of young people running away from the scene, and the police is already investigating the possibility of arson directly targeting Ms. Widener, adding that two other vehicles were also destroyed.

[Mike88]

Intercampus poll for CMTV/CM newspaper:

Vote share %: (after 11.3% of undecideds are excluded)

28.4% PS (nc)
27.3% PSD (-0.3)
15.2% CHEGA (+1.1)
  7.9% IL (-1.1)
  7.2% BE (+1.4)
  3.6% CDU (-1.1)
  2.7% Livre (+1.1)
  1.7% PAN (-1.2)
  1.5% CDS (+0.4)
  4.5% Others/Invalid (-0.3)

Popularity ratings: (between 1 and 5)

2.7 Luís Montenegro (-0.1)
2.6 Rui Tavares (-0.1)
2.6 Rui Rocha (-0.2)
2.6 António Costa (nc)
2.5 Catarina Martins (+0.1)
2.5 Inês Sousa Real (nc)
2.4 Nuno Melo (nc)
2.3 André Ventura (-0.1)
2.2 Paulo Raimundo (-0.1)

Poll conducted between 9 and 15 March 2023. Polled 613 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

[Mike88]

It was almost unnoticed, maybe because no one cares anymore, but the 4th attempt to elect a third deputy Speaker, the ballot was held yesterday afternoon, failed as CHEGA's candidate only got 58 votes:

  58 Jorge Galveias (CHEGA MP)
112 Blank ballots
  28 Invalid ballots

After the vote, Ventura trashed the MPs who didn't vote in favour of his candidate and announced he will present another candidate for another ballot, to be held probably in the last day of March.

[Mike88]

However, the debate and criticisms regarding the policies continues, with the mandatory lease of vacant building in the forefront. Regarding this, Lisbon city was announced that if the mandatory lease of vacant buildings passes, it will not be implemented in the Capital because City Hall doesn't have enough staff to analyse every single building. Councilwoman Filipa Roseta (PSD) said, in an interview to Público newspaper, that the mandatory lease will not happen in Lisbon, adding that it brings more problems than solutions. She also added that the focus of the PSD-led local government is to implement the funds of the EU Recovery plan in building and recovering houses.

Madeira also announces it will not implement the Government's housing policies. The President of the region calls the policies "crazy" and "Venezuelan":

Next week, the public discussion of the controversial policies of the government's housing package will end and the government is set to decide the final draft of the policies. However, just like Lisbon a week ago, Madeira region, also controlled by the PSD, is rejecting to implement the package. The President of the region, Miguel Albuquerque, in an interview to Diário de Notícias, labelled the policies as "crazy", "statist" and "almost Venezuelan", adding that it will only create more problems and that the only goal of the government is to create "scapegoats".

In fact, the government continues to be very criticized for the policies in the package, but a few U-turns are appearing. The government has been moderating its defense of the package and this week, even approved several PSD housing policies in order to calm down the criticisms about the plan. The government seems to be planing to try to reach a "consensus" with the PSD regarding housing. We'll see how it unfolds.

[oldtimer]

Intercampus poll for CMTV/CM newspaper:

Vote share %: (after 11.3% of undecideds are excluded)

28.4% PS (nc)
27.3% PSD (-0.3)
15.2% CHEGA (+1.1)
  7.9% IL (-1.1)
  7.2% BE (+1.4)
  3.6% CDU (-1.1)
  2.7% Livre (+1.1)
  1.7% PAN (-1.2)
  1.5% CDS (+0.4)
  4.5% Others/Invalid (-0.3)

Popularity ratings: (between 1 and 5)

2.7 Luís Montenegro (-0.1)
2.6 Rui Tavares (-0.1)
2.6 Rui Rocha (-0.2)
2.6 António Costa (nc)
2.5 Catarina Martins (+0.1)
2.5 Inês Sousa Real (nc)
2.4 Nuno Melo (nc)
2.3 André Ventura (-0.1)
2.2 Paulo Raimundo (-0.1)

Poll conducted between 9 and 15 March 2023. Polled 613 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

I like how in both Portugal and Greece everyone is almost equally unpopular.

[Mike88]

I like how in both Portugal and Greece everyone is almost equally unpopular.

The only one that is still somewhat popular is President Marcelo, but even he is polling in the low/mid 40s in some polls, miles away from the 70-80% approvals he was getting just two years ago. But, yeah, there is the sense that everyone is quite bad, from Costa to Montenegro. And who knows what lies ahead.

[Mike88]

Thousands protest in Lisbon for better wages and working conditions. A new protest is schedule for the end of the month:

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1637187659125727235

Demonstration: One hundred thousand people on the street against the lack of responses from the Government: “The fight will continue”

After a general public sector strike yesterday, that closed schools, public services and put some hospitals on minimal services, CGTP union and other unions of public and private sector workers protested in the streets of Lisbon against the rise of cost of living and the government's lack of policies to ease the burden. CGTP, close to the Communist Party, say that 100,000 people were on the streets, although that cannot be confirmed. Leftwing parties, BE and PCP, were on the protest but the surprise was the presence of... CHEGA in the protest also. CHEGA says that this wasn't a leftwing protest but a protest of "all Portuguese" who are hurting.

Another protest is schedule for 28 March, alongside with other ongoing protests, and strikes, from teachers, judicial workers, nurses, doctors and train workers.

[VPH]

15.2% for CHEGA would be more than double their performance from the last election yikes

[Mike88]

15.2% for CHEGA would be more than double their performance from the last election yikes

What is more striking, and curious at the same time, is that the CHEGA surge seems to be all at the expense of the PS, as the PSD is stagned at somewhere between 28-30%, exactly what they got in the elections, IL is surging a bit but not a lot, as is BE. The rest of parties are polling very low, under 4%. This graphic, by Europe Elects, shows this exactly:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1637108642817142784

Looking at the crosstabs of recent polls, the Socialists are losing tons of young and middle age voters who are going directly to CHEGA, while PSD remains still but takes the lead due to the PS fall. What continues to "save" the PS is their strong showing with elderly voters, around 40% of the electorate, but here, also, with a declining trend.

[VPH]

What a strange shift--if anything I would have expected it to be low-education middle-aged and older voters in rural areas, following the trends we've seen in other Western European countries. I know Portugal is somewhat of an anomaly with less educated voters still supporting the left, but it's no longer the anomaly it was until recently when it comes to right-wing populists in parliament.

Just guessing, but perhaps owing to the later entry into democracy, trends that happen elsewhere come later? PPD/PSD speedran the transition from left-leaning social democracy to neoconservatism from Carneiro to Cavaco that other Christian Democratic parties underwent during a longer period postwar.

[oldtimer]

What a strange shift--if anything I would have expected it to be low-education middle-aged and older voters in rural areas, following the trends we've seen in other Western European countries. I know Portugal is somewhat of an anomaly with less educated voters still supporting the left, but it's no longer the anomaly it was until recently when it comes to right-wing populists in parliament.

Just guessing, but perhaps owing to the later entry into democracy, trends that happen elsewhere come later? PPD/PSD speedran the transition from left-leaning social democracy to neoconservatism from Carneiro to Cavaco that other Christian Democratic parties underwent during a longer period postwar.

Because of Portugal's long term similarity to Greece I might be able to explain.

Both Greece and Portugal are very urban, 40% of their population lives in just 2 large cities.

The greek countryside, apart from the tourist areas, became impoverished and abandoned during the 20th century and the population fled to the Capital in search of government aid and public sector jobs.

So because most live in dense cities and depend on the government, the Center Left in various forms has been dominant.

However since the beggining of the 21st century the center-left establishment that has governed since 1974, has been unable to reverse declining living standards in urban areas.

So the population is increasingly looking to the opposite side, to the right wing parties for leadership and policies to reverse the decline, if those can be found.

In a word: They blame those groups who have been in charge all these decades.

That's how it looks in Greece, and I think it probably applies to Portugal too given the similar demographics and economy.

[crals]

What a strange shift--if anything I would have expected it to be low-education middle-aged and older voters in rural areas, following the trends we've seen in other Western European countries. I know Portugal is somewhat of an anomaly with less educated voters still supporting the left, but it's no longer the anomaly it was until recently when it comes to right-wing populists in parliament.

Just guessing, but perhaps owing to the later entry into democracy, trends that happen elsewhere come later? PPD/PSD speedran the transition from left-leaning social democracy to neoconservatism from Carneiro to Cavaco that other Christian Democratic parties underwent during a longer period postwar.

It is younger people in urban areas who suffer the most from chronically low wages, ridiculous rent prices and the cost of living in general.

Of course, you could argue Chega's policies will do nothing to alleviate those issues, but a vote for Chega is a middle finger to the PS government and that's the message they want to pass.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I think it's worth noting that in 2022 or 2019 the PS did much worse than average with the youngest voters but the PSD didn't do particularly better - the 'liberal left' and the 'liberal right' are the most disproportionately popular options. Going forward, I am not too surprised by these CHEGA gains not skewing old but I am going to bet there will be a strong split between voters under 25 or so (disproportionately students, more dependent on their parents, unlikely to be seeking to "settle down" and so on) and those in the age category immediately older.

[Mike88]

What a strange shift--if anything I would have expected it to be low-education middle-aged and older voters in rural areas, following the trends we've seen in other Western European countries. I know Portugal is somewhat of an anomaly with less educated voters still supporting the left, but it's no longer the anomaly it was until recently when it comes to right-wing populists in parliament.

Just guessing, but perhaps owing to the later entry into democracy, trends that happen elsewhere come later? PPD/PSD speedran the transition from left-leaning social democracy to neoconservatism from Carneiro to Cavaco that other Christian Democratic parties underwent during a longer period postwar.

Because of Portugal's long term similarity to Greece I might be able to explain.

Both Greece and Portugal are very urban, 40% of their population lives in just 2 large cities.

The greek countryside, apart from the tourist areas, became impoverished and abandoned during the 20th century and the population fled to the Capital in search of government aid and public sector jobs.

So because most live in dense cities and depend on the government, the Center Left in various forms has been dominant.

However since the beggining of the 21st century the center-left establishment that has governed since 1974, has been unable to reverse declining living standards in urban areas.

So the population is increasingly looking to the opposite side, to the right wing parties for leadership and policies to reverse the decline, if those can be found.

In a word: They blame those groups who have been in charge all these decades.

That's how it looks in Greece, and I think it probably applies to Portugal too given the similar demographics and economy.

It is younger people in urban areas who suffer the most from chronically low wages, ridiculous rent prices and the cost of living in general.

Of course, you could argue Chega's policies will do nothing to alleviate those issues, but a vote for Chega is a middle finger to the PS government and that's the message they want to pass.

Polling companies unfortunately don't post results by area of residence, cities, suburbs, rural, etc, so it's complicated to say if the elderly are voting more, or not, on the rightwing. However, there could be a difference between the rural elderly voter and the urban elderly voter, with the latter more worried about pensions, here aligned with the PS, while the former more concerned with abandonment and neglect of his/her area and, therefore, more aligned to vote CHEGA. Low education voters continue to lean more leftwing although here also with a decreasing trend. CHEGA's main voting base seems to be upper and lower middle class voters. Upper class voters lean more to PSD and IL, but there are some differences between polling companies in class crosstabs.

The shift of the PSD from "social democrat" to a normal liberal conservative party was faster because it was already one, the issue was the environment around the revolution that basically banned any conservative/liberal type speech. So, in order to have success, you had to follow the rule book until it didn't matter anymore, which started by 1976. In fact, the PPD, in 1975, had a lot of support from the Catholic Church, very important in rural areas, and from more urban liberal aligned voters.

There are indeed a lot of similarities between Greece and Portugal, however, the strong dominance of the PS, since 1995, may be creating, and perpetuating, an age divide on who is to blame for the country's problems. Younger voters, which came to voting age during the final years of Sócrates, may blame the PS for all the problems the country is facing, even though the harsh measures taken during the PSD/CDS 2011-2015 government, but that this was just a consequence of the PS mismanagement. Older voters, on the other hand, "furious" by the pensions cuts imposed by the Troika and enacted by the PSD led government, don't forgive the rightwing and continue to blame the PSD for their bad living conditions. Adding to this, the failed experiment of the "Geringonça" left orphan many protest voters, mainly young and middle age, who in the past may have voted BE or CDU but since both parties are "co-responsible" for many of the cuts and bad policies during the Geringonça, their credibility has taken a big hit, so CHEGA, and also IL, seem the perfect choice in order to "shake up" the system.

The bad leaderships and strategies of the PSD are also to blame for the rise of CHEGA, and also IL, as the Social Democrats look weak and of "just praying for power to fall in their lap", thus not making any efforts to be more attractive for voters who just want to get rid of the PS. The "vague" position regarding CHEGA also punishes the party as it "deflects" the coverage from how bad the PS is, to why isn't the PSD taking a stronger stance on issues.

I think it's worth noting that in 2022 or 2019 the PS did much worse than average with the youngest voters but the PSD didn't do particularly better - the 'liberal left' and the 'liberal right' are the most disproportionately popular options. Going forward, I am not too surprised by these CHEGA gains not skewing old but I am going to bet there will be a strong split between voters under 25 or so (disproportionately students, more dependent on their parents, unlikely to be seeking to "settle down" and so on) and those in the age category immediately older.

The 2019 exit polls, regarding young voters, gave just 25% for the PS, while the PSD stood at 30%. BE had 13% and PAN a strong 9%, while 18%, probably here IL votes, voted for others. In 2019, also, elderly voters went 51-28% for the PS. In 2022, there were few changes between PS and PSD on younger and elderly voters, but there is a big "gender" gap as male young voters went massively to the rightwing parties, almost 60%, while female young voters gave just 40%. The age gap is already pretty big, but we don't how the future exit of Costa from the PS leadership will impact the party, specially on elderly voters which is the fastest growing voter base in the country as Portugal is one of the fastest aging country in the world, and because all of the possible successors to the leadership are deeply unpopular.