2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI)

[Tintrlvr]

So, we thinking Goldman will pull this one out?

I'm ready to call it for him. The needle isn't moving really as votes come in, so it seems precincts are being reported evenly district-wide, and the number of votes left is quite small. I don't see how Niou makes up a deficit of over 2,000 votes with just 16,000 votes left to count (and a majority of those going to non-Niou/Goldman candidates); she'd need to dramatically turn the tide.

I would to but the main questions I have are:

1. Is the vote we have in so far exclusively early/ED, ect. I don't think there would be a huge disparity between these voters in a D primary but who knows.

2. Were there really only ~50k votes cast? That number seems extremely low as someone who lived in the district and saw so many ads and campaign signs/events. Given NY's election incompetence, i wouldn't be suprised if these numbers change a bit.

Apparently there was some disproportion in the votes since Niou did close the gap a bit. Goldman is now up by about 1,200 votes with around 7,000 left to count. That still indicates a Goldman victory, but maybe I was too certain above.

[Pink Panther]

Based NY-12 for dumping an Anti-Vaxxer.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

So, we thinking Goldman will pull this one out?

I'm ready to call it for him. The needle isn't moving really as votes come in, so it seems precincts are being reported evenly district-wide, and the number of votes left is quite small. I don't see how Niou makes up a deficit of over 2,000 votes with just 16,000 votes left to count (and a majority of those going to non-Niou/Goldman candidates); she'd need to dramatically turn the tide.

I would to but the main questions I have are:

1. Is the vote we have in so far exclusively early/ED, ect. I don't think there would be a huge disparity between these voters in a D primary but who knows.

2. Were there really only ~50k votes cast? That number seems extremely low as someone who lived in the district and saw so many ads and campaign signs/events. Given NY's election incompetence, i wouldn't be suprised if these numbers change a bit.

Apparently there was some disproportion in the votes since Niou did close the gap a bit. Goldman is now up by about 1,200 votes with around 7,000 left to count. That still indicates a Goldman victory, but maybe I was too certain above.

There's more coming in from Manhattan (where Goldman leads by like 14%) then Kings.

[Tintrlvr]

So, we thinking Goldman will pull this one out?

I'm ready to call it for him. The needle isn't moving really as votes come in, so it seems precincts are being reported evenly district-wide, and the number of votes left is quite small. I don't see how Niou makes up a deficit of over 2,000 votes with just 16,000 votes left to count (and a majority of those going to non-Niou/Goldman candidates); she'd need to dramatically turn the tide.

I would to but the main questions I have are:

1. Is the vote we have in so far exclusively early/ED, ect. I don't think there would be a huge disparity between these voters in a D primary but who knows.

2. Were there really only ~50k votes cast? That number seems extremely low as someone who lived in the district and saw so many ads and campaign signs/events. Given NY's election incompetence, i wouldn't be suprised if these numbers change a bit.

Apparently there was some disproportion in the votes since Niou did close the gap a bit. Goldman is now up by about 1,200 votes with around 7,000 left to count. That still indicates a Goldman victory, but maybe I was too certain above.

And another dump right after I posted that leaves Goldman ahead by around 1,150 votes with only around 3,500 votes left to count (and more Manhattan than Brooklyn), so I'm calling this for Goldman.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Niou's been making up ground these last few vote dumps. If that continues it'll be close

BIG MASSIVE DUMPS

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1562252966781980672

[ProgressiveModerate]

So, we thinking Goldman will pull this one out?

I'm ready to call it for him. The needle isn't moving really as votes come in, so it seems precincts are being reported evenly district-wide, and the number of votes left is quite small. I don't see how Niou makes up a deficit of over 2,000 votes with just 16,000 votes left to count (and a majority of those going to non-Niou/Goldman candidates); she'd need to dramatically turn the tide.

I would to but the main questions I have are:

1. Is the vote we have in so far exclusively early/ED, ect. I don't think there would be a huge disparity between these voters in a D primary but who knows.

2. Were there really only ~50k votes cast? That number seems extremely low as someone who lived in the district and saw so many ads and campaign signs/events. Given NY's election incompetence, i wouldn't be suprised if these numbers change a bit.

Apparently there was some disproportion in the votes since Niou did close the gap a bit. Goldman is now up by about 1,200 votes with around 7,000 left to count. That still indicates a Goldman victory, but maybe I was too certain above.

And another dump right after I posted that leaves Goldman ahead by around 1,150 votes with only around 3,500 votes left to count (and more Manhattan than Brooklyn), so I'm calling this for Goldman.

Yeah Niou has no realistic path unless there's incompetence on NY's part as to how many votes are left (which is very much possible, wouldn't count on it though).

So Goldman won a primary in an Uber Safe D district with just 13k votes lol.

[Pyro]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1562252966781980672

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Biaggi's campaign ended with her idiotic tweet about "Childbearing age women".

[Gass3268]

Some great maps here:

https://twitter.com/cinyc9/status/1562245702213853184?s=20&t=0RDPqFa1SLfL6vZ...

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

So, we thinking Goldman will pull this one out?

I'm ready to call it for him. The needle isn't moving really as votes come in, so it seems precincts are being reported evenly district-wide, and the number of votes left is quite small. I don't see how Niou makes up a deficit of over 2,000 votes with just 16,000 votes left to count (and a majority of those going to non-Niou/Goldman candidates); she'd need to dramatically turn the tide.

I would to but the main questions I have are:

1. Is the vote we have in so far exclusively early/ED, ect. I don't think there would be a huge disparity between these voters in a D primary but who knows.

2. Were there really only ~50k votes cast? That number seems extremely low as someone who lived in the district and saw so many ads and campaign signs/events. Given NY's election incompetence, i wouldn't be suprised if these numbers change a bit.

Apparently there was some disproportion in the votes since Niou did close the gap a bit. Goldman is now up by about 1,200 votes with around 7,000 left to count. That still indicates a Goldman victory, but maybe I was too certain above.

And another dump right after I posted that leaves Goldman ahead by around 1,150 votes with only around 3,500 votes left to count (and more Manhattan than Brooklyn), so I'm calling this for Goldman.

Yeah Niou has no realistic path unless there's incompetence on NY's part as to how many votes are left (which is very much possible, wouldn't count on it though).

So Goldman won a primary in an Uber Safe D district with just 13k votes lol.

Maybe Niou will say something anti-Semitic after losing. It would be in character.

[Gass3268]

Biaggi's campaign ended with her idiotic tweet about "Childbearing age women".

Eh, it ended when the map got redrawn.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

So, we thinking Goldman will pull this one out?

I'm ready to call it for him. The needle isn't moving really as votes come in, so it seems precincts are being reported evenly district-wide, and the number of votes left is quite small. I don't see how Niou makes up a deficit of over 2,000 votes with just 16,000 votes left to count (and a majority of those going to non-Niou/Goldman candidates); she'd need to dramatically turn the tide.

I would to but the main questions I have are:

1. Is the vote we have in so far exclusively early/ED, ect. I don't think there would be a huge disparity between these voters in a D primary but who knows.

2. Were there really only ~50k votes cast? That number seems extremely low as someone who lived in the district and saw so many ads and campaign signs/events. Given NY's election incompetence, i wouldn't be suprised if these numbers change a bit.

Apparently there was some disproportion in the votes since Niou did close the gap a bit. Goldman is now up by about 1,200 votes with around 7,000 left to count. That still indicates a Goldman victory, but maybe I was too certain above.

And another dump right after I posted that leaves Goldman ahead by around 1,150 votes with only around 3,500 votes left to count (and more Manhattan than Brooklyn), so I'm calling this for Goldman.

Yeah Niou has no realistic path unless there's incompetence on NY's part as to how many votes are left (which is very much possible, wouldn't count on it though).

So Goldman won a primary in an Uber Safe D district with just 13k votes lol.

Maybe Niou will say something anti-Semitic after losing. It would be in character.

If she doesn't, I'm sure Nina Turner will pick up the slack.

[wbrocks67]

Is NY-10 really nearly done counting? NYTimes has it at >95% but they seem to be incredibly off sometimes...

[GALeftist]

It seems vaguely plausible that Niou nets 900 votes from the last few votes if they're all EDay. I'll say Likely Goldman?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling NY-4 D for Gillen!
Calling NY-19 D for Riley!
Calling OK-2 R for Breechen!

Uncalled:
FL-4 D
FL-22 R
OK-Labor Commissioner R
OK-Superintendent R
NY-1 R
NY-2 R
NY-3 D
NY-10 D
NY-22 D
NY-22 R
NY-23 R
NY-24 R
AK-SEN Slot 4

[Lief 🗽]

Wow, Maloney's performance is terrible, Nadler's basically fought her to a tie in her share of the district!

[ProgressiveModerate]

A bit ironic how Niou got just 11 votes in her home precinct (Goldman only got 22 though)

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

A bit ironic how Niou got just 11 votes in her home precinct (Goldman only got 22 though)

Her successor in her Assembly seat refusing to endorse her did not help, I'm sure.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Is NY-10 really nearly done counting? NYTimes has it at >95% but they seem to be incredibly off sometimes...

It was at 95% at 47k in now we have 56k so they are def off, the question is just how much. If there's something like 10k more outstanding votes then Niou def has a shot but if it's basically done then Goldman wins

[ProgressiveModerate]

A bit ironic how Niou got just 11 votes in her home precinct (Goldman only got 22 though)

Her successor in her Assembly seat refusing to endorse her did not help, I'm sure.

Her seat is the definition of Goldman's base (and the anti-defintion of her own base). Home to several very expensive high-rise Condos in lower Manhattan and is right next to wall street.

Again though I'm shocked that even in this type of precinct turnout was so bad. A total of 61 votes were cast even though if you just look at Niou's building there has to be at least  200-300 voting age adults.

[Gass3268]

NY-10 is gonna be super tight.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Is NY-10 really nearly done counting? NYTimes has it at >95% but they seem to be incredibly off sometimes...

It was at 95% at 47k in now we have 56k so they are def off, the question is just how much. If there's something like 10k more outstanding votes then Niou def has a shot but if it's basically done then Goldman wins

And now it's at 60k lol. Niou is still 700 votes short.

[GALeftist]

600 votes is very doable and NYT now thinks a lot more of the vote is out, like a few thousand. I'd still rather be Goldman but it'll probably be tight...

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

All I've learned since 2020 is that % in estimates are all bullsh**t.