2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI)

[Skill and Chance]

I'm kinda amazed at the lack of political geography in the Lake v Robson race with Robson pretty consistently leading Lake by 10% throughout the state.

This makes it very unlikely there's some area in Maricopa yet to come in where Lake will do suprisingly well.

Pima is the wildcard.

On NYT Pima is half in and Robson is doing just fine.

Just caught that.

[Alben Barkley]

I'm kinda amazed at the lack of political geography in the Lake v Robson race with Robson pretty consistently leading Lake by 10% throughout the state.

This makes it very unlikely there's some area in Maricopa yet to come in where Lake will do suprisingly well.

Pima is the wildcard.

EDIT: Just came in with a big Robson lead.  Pending a near unanimous day-of vote for Lake, this could be over.

Almost as over as MAGA is!

[Senator Incitatus]

Why isn't Kari Lake crashing on PredictIt? I highly doubt Pima County will bail her out.

If there was ever a situation where the day-of vote breaks 90% in favor of one candidate, it's this.  She has primed her supporters to believe their votes won't count otherwise.  

In fact, if the reported vote is all EV (do we know?) I’d go so far as to say Lake is favored.

I was under the impression we were getting only election day results in AZ, which means the opposite—Lake is doomed.

Any chance Lamon could actually win this or is the election-day vote really going to be overwhelmingly Masters? Seeing conflicting signs so far.

I'd expect the election-day vote to favor Masters for the same reasons as Lake, but are we looking at EV or ED?

Now understanding that this is the early vote, which bodes well for both Lake and Masters.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling AZ-6 D for Engel!
Calling AZ-6 R for Ciscomani!
Calling AZ-7 R for Pozzolo!

Uncalled:

WA-SOS Slot 2
WA-1
WA-2 Slot 2
WA-3
WA-4
WA-5 Slot 2
WA-6 Slot 2
WA-7
WA-8
WA-9
WA-10
AZ-GOV R
AZ-SEN R
AZ-SOS R
AZ-SOS D
AZ-2 R
AZ-4 R
AZ-AG R
AZ-Superintendent R
MI-3 R
MI-6 R
MI-10 D
MI-12 R
MI-13 D
KS-AG R
KS-Treasurer R

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

He's not eligible.

Oh, indeed. I didn't know he was born in Germany. It's a shame that two of America's greatest entrepreneurs can't be elected president because of that silly Article 2 Section 1 Clause 5.

Nevertheless, with Balke Masters and J. D. Vance winning their respective primaries, Thiel remains the winner of this primary season.

[Alben Barkley]

Maybe I'm just high out of my mind on hopium, but I now would no longer be surprised even if Tim Ryan wins against JD "Ackshually Abused Wives Should Stay In Their Marriages" Vance.

Republicans poked the bear that is the American woman, and NOW THEY HAVE F--KED UP.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Murray up by 22 points, WA is not competitive lol

[Skill and Chance]

Why isn't Kari Lake crashing on PredictIt? I highly doubt Pima County will bail her out.

If there was ever a situation where the day-of vote breaks 90% in favor of one candidate, it's this.  She has primed her supporters to believe their votes won't count otherwise.  

In fact, if the reported vote is all EV (do we know?) I’d go so far as to say Lake is favored.

I was under the impression we were getting only election day results in AZ, which means the opposite—Lake is doomed.

Any chance Lamon could actually win this or is the election-day vote really going to be overwhelmingly Masters? Seeing conflicting signs so far.

I'd expect the election-day vote to favor Masters for the same reasons as Lake, but are we looking at EV or ED?

Now understanding that this is the early vote, which bodes well for both Lake and Masters.

Masters is basically safe given he's leading in the early vote.  Robson could easily be leading by enough to hold off Lake, however.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I mean is this that different from Medicaid expansion referedums where if the emphasis is on one issue they all vote for it.

As I said earlier in the thread: Democratic POLICIES are wildly popular. Florida voted for a $15 minimum wage and other Democratic proposals at the same time they voted for Trump.

It's just our CANDIDATES and MESSAGING that is off. Fix that? Well, you could say goodbye to the Republican Party as you know it then! The Democratic Party IS America's majority party still whether everyone realizes it or not.

Republicans need to put anti bureaucracy ballot measures up as stripping powers from these agencies will probably be popular

[Sestak]

The ideal outcome for Dems - Masters wins and Robson/Lake close enough for a protracted battle between the two - seems very much in the cards if this is only EV.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

In other news Rodney Glassman, who was the democrat nominee against McCain in 2010, is narrowly in second place

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Well, suddenly I feel a lot less stupid for daring to say that maybe the reason you see polls like (as just one example) Whitmer +15 but Biden -20 in Michigan suggested that the reason for Biden's bad approvals had as much to do with poor progressive enthusiasm as they did with conservative backlash.

Now that Dark Brandon is finally showing us mere glimpses of his true form, I expect even that to change in the next few months!

LMFAO. The Rs thought they would cruise to victory no matter what this November so they nominated literally the worst candidates possible in almost every race.

Well, it's a bold strategy Cotton, let's see if it pays off! As for my own prediction for the GOP's fate now:

Alben, we love you but tbh right now you kind of sound like a bernie supporter that believes there are more progressives in this country than there actually are.

[Minnesota Mike]

Not only does it look like Beutler and Newhouse survive it looks like they will face each face a Dem (good for them).

[AZdude]

As Minnesota Mike said, there are three phases to the AZ vote count.
-The 8pm initial dump which is EV that has been signature-verified and counted.
-Then ED vote comes in as it is counted.
-And lastly, the later EV and EV votes that are dropped off on Election Day.  These have to be signature verified and that always seems to take forever.

Whoever keeps saying that Democrats voted in the GOP primary, please stop.  In AZ Dems and GOP voters can only vote in their own primaries.  Indy voters can choose which ballot to vote however.

I took the GOP ballot and voted for Robson because I'm too terrified of Scary Lake as governor.  People not from AZ don't realize how well-known she is from her time at Fox 10 news.  I've gone round and round with my grandparents trying to convince them of how twisted she is, but no dice.

Also don't see why people think Pima will save her - she doesn't have the name rec that she has in Maricopa.

[Senator Incitatus]

Gibbs now leading and apparently possessing the slight advantage. Meijer only up 4 in Kent with Byron, Gibbs's hometown, entirely out. The remaining vote in the rest of Kent should still favor Meijer, but by how much?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling WA-1 for Delbene and Cavaleri!
Calling WA-5 Slot 2 for Hill!
Calling WA-6 Slot 2 for Kreiselmaier!
Calling WA-7 Slot 1 for Jayapal!
Calling WA-8 Slot 1 for Schrier!
Calling WA-9 for Smith and Basler!
Calling WA-10 for Strickland and Swank!

Uncalled:

WA-SOS Slot 2
WA-2 Slot 2
WA-3
WA-4
WA-7 Slot 2
WA-8 Slot 2
AZ-GOV R
AZ-SEN R
AZ-SOS R
AZ-SOS D
AZ-2 R
AZ-4 R
AZ-AG R
AZ-Superintendent R
MI-3 R
MI-6 R
MI-10 D
MI-12 R
MI-13 D
KS-AG R
KS-Treasurer R

[Minnesota Mike]

Gibbs now leading and apparently possessing the advantage. Meijer only up 4 in Kent with Byron, Gibbs's hometown, entirely out.

Gibbs slightly winning election day vote in Kent. Could go either way but I'd rather be Gibbs.

[Alben Barkley]

Well, suddenly I feel a lot less stupid for daring to say that maybe the reason you see polls like (as just one example) Whitmer +15 but Biden -20 in Michigan suggested that the reason for Biden's bad approvals had as much to do with poor progressive enthusiasm as they did with conservative backlash.

Now that Dark Brandon is finally showing us mere glimpses of his true form, I expect even that to change in the next few months!

LMFAO. The Rs thought they would cruise to victory no matter what this November so they nominated literally the worst candidates possible in almost every race.

Well, it's a bold strategy Cotton, let's see if it pays off! As for my own prediction for the GOP's fate now:

Alben, we love you but tbh right now you kind of sound like a bernie supporter that believes there are more progressives in this country than there actually are.

I literally was polled a week or two ago (first time ever) and said I slightly disapprove of Biden.

I would not say that tonight, but point is, you don't have to be a Bernie supporter by ANY means to be a liberal who is/was frustrated and dissatisfied by the seeming lack of progress in the Biden administration to this point, to the point it might make you say that in a poll. Doesn't mean you'd vote for a Republican though!

And the fact that we've seen it in poll after poll after poll -- low Biden approvals among the SAME SAMPLES as people saying they'd vote D over R? Well, it should have been a sign all along.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Not only does it look like Beutler and Newhouse survive it looks like they will face each face a Dem (good for them).

It's 100% early vote. IDK how bad they will do with e-day voters, but given they aren't ahead by much now, they are likely doomed

[Ferguson97]

Republicans need to put anti bureaucracy ballot measures up as stripping powers from these agencies will probably be popular

It would not be popular lol.

Even after today, you still completely misunderstand what issues actually draw people to the Republican Party.

[Minnesota Mike]

Not only does it look like Beutler and Newhouse survive it looks like they will face each face a Dem (good for them).

It's 100% early vote. IDK how bad they will do with e-day voters, but given they aren't ahead by much now, they are likely doomed

It's all mail vote in Washington. Don't expect any big swings.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Not only does it look like Beutler and Newhouse survive it looks like they will face each face a Dem (good for them).

It's 100% early vote. IDK how bad they will do with e-day voters, but given they aren't ahead by much now, they are likely doomed

It's all mail vote in Washington. Don't expect any big swings.

LOL I totally forgot

[GALeftist]

My official stance on whackjobs in GOP Primaries

- In races like MD-GOV or MA-GOV the choice is between a Democrat or a moderate Republican; wingnuts can't win, and therefore can't legitimize their version of politics. Seems like a slam dunk case for the whackjobs in these places.
- In races like MI-03, AZ-GOV, or PA-SEN the wingnut will be at a severe disadvantage and likely to go down eventually. In these cases I think you need to evaluate it on a case-by-case basis. For example, Kari Lake could do enormous harm in the governor's mansion; by contrast, Gibbs can do basically nothing on his own aside from possible cascading effects strengthening the Trumpist wing of the party if he wins.
- Sometimes, albeit rarely, you will have races like PA-SEN where the most unelectable candidate is not the most extreme. I am also all in for the weirdos in these races; no downsides at all!
- Finally, you have races like WA-03, WA-04, or WY-AL, the choice is between a moderate Republican or a wingnut; Democrats can't win. Here, it's a slam dunk case for the moderates.

With that in mind, go Gibbs and go Robson!

[Utah Neolib]

Lake will attack Robson like Trump attacked the Georgia runoffs.

[OSR stands with Israel]

JHB looks like she will beat Kent