2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI)

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Not sure if this has already been posted, but initial results are pretty good for Republicans in WA, with Murray only up ~5 over Smiley. Those results will almost certainly improve for Murray over the next couple of days, but both parties will probably treat this as a competitive election, albeit with Murray heavily favored.

Murray up 49-37 now

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Red Eagle Politics must be melting down right now

https://twitter.com/RedEaglePatriot/status/1554520796189671424

[GeorgiaModerate]

Why isn't Kari Lake crashing on PredictIt? I highly doubt Pima County will bail her out.

If there was ever a situation where the day-of vote breaks 90% in favor of one candidate, it's this.  She has primed her supporters to believe their votes won't count otherwise.  

In fact, if the reported vote is all EV (do we know?) I’d go so far as to say Lake is favored.

[Crumpets]

I can say I unlocked an achievement tonight: for the only time I can remember, I turned a would-be non-voter into a voter. Someone at the National Night Out party saw my "I voted" sticker and suddenly remembered today was election day. She got her ballot in right at the last minute.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Lopez may actually win a county lol.

I think that goes to show how much a Hispanic last name can do and also a potential warning sign for Hobbs support amongst Hispanics.

[Senator Incitatus]

Why isn't Kari Lake crashing on PredictIt? I highly doubt Pima County will bail her out.

If there was ever a situation where the day-of vote breaks 90% in favor of one candidate, it's this.  She has primed her supporters to believe their votes won't count otherwise. 

In fact, if the reported vote is all EV (do we know?) I’d go so far as to say Lake is favored.

I was under the impression we were getting only election day results in AZ, which means the opposite—Lake is doomed.

[Yoda]

As much as it would anger certain portions of their base (though how big that base really is has been significantly questioned tonight), I think the smart play for the GOP would be to urge states to protect abortion in cases of rape, incest, life of the mother, and during the first trimester, while strongly opposing allowance for later abortions. Make Dems defend later, elective abortions, which polling consistently shows is a tough argument for them to make, and take the early/non-elective cases off the table to deprive Dems of their biggest attack line.

This is all correct, it would be very smart for republicans to take this approach to abortion. Instead, they are being vocal about no exceptions whatsoever, forcing 10 year old rape victims to carry the pregnancy and give birth, and to top it all off they are now going after BIRTH CONTROL. They can't control their cartoonish extremism on this issue and mark my words it will kill them this November and in '24.

[MT Treasurer]

Any chance Lamon could actually win this or is the election-day vote really going to be overwhelmingly Masters? Seeing conflicting signs so far.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

IF Meijer wins, Lake loses, AND the KS abortion amendment goes down in flames, this has to be the worst night for Donald Trump since November 2020 right?

If so, this be me right now:

“He gazed up at the enormous face. Two years it had taken him to learn what kind of smile was hidden beneath the goofy gaze. O cruel, needless misunderstanding! O stubborn, self-willed exile from the loving breast! Two bourbon-scented tears trickled down the sides of his nose. But it was all right, everything was all right, the struggle was finished. He had won the victory over himself. He loved Dark Brandon.”

Dude, he could become entrenched with his #bipartisan appeal. Gibbs is a lunatic that would probably lose even in this environment

[Senator Incitatus]

Any chance Lamon could actually win this or is the election-day vote really going to be overwhelmingly Masters? Seeing conflicting signs so far.

I'd expect the election-day vote to favor Masters for the same reasons as Lake, but are we looking at EV or ED?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I can say I unlocked an achievement tonight: for the only time I can remember, I turned a would-be non-voter into a voter. Someone at the National Night Out party saw my "I voted" sticker and suddenly remembered today was election day. She got her ballot in right at the last minute.

Oh like the time I managed to do so for that lady who cleaned my apartment naked!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lake is Doomed because D's voted in R primary

[Yoda]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1554663270505742336?s=20&t=VlFZgOnZUFoE...

Also goes on to say that the E-Day and early vote didn't split that much.

Fellas... I think we may need to change the narrative I was arguing about with certain idiots earlier today ("Hurr durr Oz will win by double digits because polls bad and muh fundamentals mean red wave!") to a blue wave now being at least as likely as a red wave.

LOL right? If I hear "fundamentals" one more time.....

[ProgressiveModerate]

Dems only appear to be slightly behind Rs in AZ primary turnout, which is quite good considering historically Rs have an advantage in registration plus the R primary is actually seriously contested.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Dems only appear to be slightly behind Rs in AZ primary turnout, which is quite good considering historically Rs have an advantage in registration plus the R primary is actually seriously contested.

Don't get excited. Remember AZ 2020? Biden's lead decreased as more votes came in

[Alben Barkley]

Well, suddenly I feel a lot less stupid for daring to say that maybe the reason you see polls like (as just one example) Whitmer +15 but Biden -20 in Michigan suggested that the reason for Biden's bad approvals had as much to do with poor progressive enthusiasm as they did with conservative backlash.

Now that Dark Brandon is finally showing us mere glimpses of his true form, I expect even that to change in the next few months!

LMFAO. The Rs thought they would cruise to victory no matter what this November so they nominated literally the worst candidates possible in almost every race.

Well, it's a bold strategy Cotton, let's see if it pays off! As for my own prediction for the GOP's fate now:

[ProgressiveModerate]

Dems only appear to be slightly behind Rs in AZ primary turnout, which is quite good considering historically Rs have an advantage in registration plus the R primary is actually seriously contested.

Don't get excited. Remember AZ 2020? Biden's lead decreased as more votes came in

We'll see but that's a bit of an Apples to Oranges comparison since you can see the % left to count in a primary

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

It's early but looking good so far for the impeachment Rs

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling MO-SEN D for Valentine!
Calling MO-5 R for Turk!
Calling MO-6 D for Martin!
Calling MO-7 R for Burlison!
Calling MO-1 R for Jones!

Uncalled:

WA-SOS Slot 2
WA-1
WA-2 Slot 2
WA-3
WA-4
WA-5 Slot 2
WA-6 Slot 2
WA-7
WA-8
WA-9
WA-10
AZ-GOV R
AZ-SEN R
AZ-SOS R
AZ-SOS D
AZ-2 R
AZ-4 R
AZ-6 D
AZ-6 R
AZ-7 R
AZ-AG R
AZ-Superintendent R
MI-3 R
MI-6 R
MI-10 D
MI-12 R
MI-13 D
KS-AG R
KS-Treasurer R

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm kinda amazed at the lack of political geography in the Lake v Robson race with Robson pretty consistently leading Lake by 10% throughout the state.

This makes it very unlikely there's some area in Maricopa yet to come in where Lake will do suprisingly well.

[Skill and Chance]

I'm kinda amazed at the lack of political geography in the Lake v Robson race with Robson pretty consistently leading Lake by 10% throughout the state.

This makes it very unlikely there's some area in Maricopa yet to come in where Lake will do suprisingly well.

Pima is the wildcard.

EDIT: Just came in with a big Robson lead.  Pending a near unanimous day-of vote for Lake, this could be over.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Well, suddenly I feel a lot less stupid for daring to say that maybe the reason you see polls like (as just one example) Whitmer +15 but Biden -20 in Michigan suggested that the reason for Biden's bad approvals had as much to do with poor progressive enthusiasm as they did with conservative backlash.

This. As a Left-Wing person who'd probably vote 'disapprove' if polled on Biden, I've always thought that polls should differentiate from which side people 'disapprove' of a President or politician.

Are Progressives the silent majority? Huzzah.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Hmm I wonder what parts of MO Hartlzer represents.

[Minnesota Mike]

Any chance Lamon could actually win this or is the election-day vote really going to be overwhelmingly Masters? Seeing conflicting signs so far.

I'd expect the election-day vote to favor Masters for the same reasons as Lake, but are we looking at EV or ED?

We are looking at MIB received before today. Next election day, then Mai/dropoffs received today.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm kinda amazed at the lack of political geography in the Lake v Robson race with Robson pretty consistently leading Lake by 10% throughout the state.

This makes it very unlikely there's some area in Maricopa yet to come in where Lake will do suprisingly well.

Pima is the wildcard.

On NYT Pima is half in and Robson is doing just fine.