🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)

[Mike88]

If I&O has PVV in the lead, then Peil, which normally overpolls PVV, almost certainly has them in the lead also. Curious to see the Ipsos numbers.

[DavidB.]

Final Ipsos poll shows GL-PvdA clearly lower than VVD and PVV, which gains 10 (!) seats.

Also note D66 going up steadily. Jetten is having a great campaign as I always expected.

[Harlow]

Final I&O poll has PVV on top with 28 seats; GL-PvdA and VVD both at 27:

I’m curious what puts PVV on top of this projection seat-wise when they and GL-PvdA are tied with 17.7%. Does it have to do with regional lists or something?

[DavidB.]

I’m curious what puts PVV on top of this projection seat-wise when they and GL-PvdA are tied with 17.7%. Does it have to do with regional lists or something?

I am also curious about this and I wonder if it's got something to do with I&O wanting GL-PvdA to gain panicking tactical voters. As far as I know they didn't provide any explanation.

[DavidB.]

And the last one. Final poll Peil.nl/De Hond, with a 'low prognosis' and 'high prognosis' next to the current polling number:



De Hond's prognosis of "winner" per municipality:


Red = big cities, student towns, culturally liberal highly educated suburbs and the last remnants of the old Social Democratic heartland
Blue = the economically prosperous engine of the country, mostly consisting of areas that aren't truly rural but also not truly urban; suburbs and small towns in the vicinity of big cities
Grey = 'the forgotten Netherlands'
Yellow = the last remnants of the Christian Democratic heartland

29% of PvdD voters, 27% of SP voters, 22% of D66 voters and 14% of Volt voters still consider a tactical vote for GL-PvdA. However, all of these parties in total (excl. GL-PvdA) have about 20 seats.

Meanwhile, 35% of FVD voters, 30% of BBB voters, 26% of NSC voters and 24% of VVD voters still consider a tactical vote for the PVV. These parties in total (excl. PVV) have about 50 seats - VVD and NSC are the big ones here, of course.

For this reason, De Hond argues PVV have more to win when it comes to tactical voting than GL-PvdA. If in both groups of voters 10% decide to cast a tactical vote, GL-PvdA gain 2 seats but PVV gain 5.

[DavidB.]

Party: I&O - Ipsos - Peil

PVV: 28 - 27 - 29
GL-PvdA: 27 - 24 - 28
VVD: 27 - 29 - 26
NSC: 21 - 19 - 19
D66: 9 - 11 - 8
BBB: 5 - 6 - 6
SP: 6 - 5 - 5
PvdD: 5 - 5 - 4
CDA: 4 - 4 - 6
FVD: 4 - 3 - 4
DENK: 3 - 4 - 4
CU: 3 - 4 - 3
Volt: 3 - 4 - 3
SGP: 3 - 3 - 2
JA21: 1 - 1 - 1
BIJ1: 0 - 1 - 1
BVNL:  1 - 0  - 1
50Plus: 0 - 0 - 0

All very close to each other, except for Ipsos on GL/PvdA; they have D66 higher.

[DavidB.]

Ipsos voter flow charts here; 'SN' = doesn't vote. The PVV gains a total of 4 seats from non-voters in 2021.

[DavidB.]

Most polling stations open tomorrow at 7:30 AM and close at 9 PM. The only exceptions: polling stations that open earlier in the morning or close earlier in the evening (never later), and voters abroad who have already cast their vote by mail or at Dutch embassies/consulates abroad. For Dutch citizens who are residents in the Netherlands, there was no early voting and no postal voting anymore (there was during COVID but this was an exception). The weather will be relatively cold (5 to 9 degrees) but dry.

At 9 PM, all polls are closed and an exit poll (usually done by Ipsos) will follow. This exit poll is usually very accurate but, over the last general elections, has tended to overestimate the biggest left-wing/progressive option by a little (PvdA +2 in 2012, GL +2 in 2017, D66 +3 in 2021). If Timmermans wins by 1 or 2 seats in the 9 PM exit poll, the conclusion cannot be that GL-PvdA will definitely be the biggest. Otherwise the poll tends to be very accurate, though. The count tends to take long, only well after midnight will most results get in. The NOS will update the 'prognosis' multiple times throughout the evening.

[PSOL]

This is going to be a good night for PVV

Shame Symone’s health problems and the immense bullying by far right trolls have ended B1JI

[DavidB.]

Turnout at 10:30 was 14%, -1 from 2017.

[Flyersfan232]

the netherlands need a 5% thershold

[DavidB.]

^ Everyone with one-sentence comments about a threshold being needed (without showing further insight into Dutch politics and actually making an argument for it that shows a basic understanding of Dutch political tradition, which is fine by me) goes on ignore, because it's annoying to provide all these updates and have 10 posters with no clue drop this drive-by comment every election.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If I'm doing my math correctly, as of right now there's nine hours until the exit poll.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

the netherlands need a 5% thershold

I'll add it to the list

the netherlands should raise the threshold to 5%

they need move the thershold up to 5% no way should a party under 1% of the vote be awared a seat

They need to raised the threshold to 5%

[Estrella]

Talking about thresholds… just a thought: FvD’s and BBB’s big provincial victories (and in hindsight, their fifteen minutes of fame) both came after they established themselves by winning one/two seats in parliament. If Netherlands had, let’s say, a Danish 2% threshold (or any number that will keep 1-2 seat parties out), very little would have changed in national politics but provincial politics would be unrecognizable.

[DavidB.]

Indeed. In addition to securing pluralism, the low barrier to access parliament provides for a necessary check in a political system that lacks a feature to turn policy in a meaningfully different direction. Every postwar government in the Netherlands has included at least one party that was also in the previous government.

I'd argue that what we actually need is an expanded parliament. Compared to the rest of the Western world, we have one of the smallest parliaments in terms of seats relative to the total population of the country. Let's make it 300 seats: 150 elected in either single-member (either with or without runoff) or multi-member constituencies so that both an element of regional representation and an element of majoritarianism are built in, and let's elect the remaining 150 proportionally, exactly the way we do now. In this way, fragmentation decreases but our high level of pluralism in terms of representation remains.

If doubling the number of seats is too unpopular (and it will be), making it 200 seats, with 100 in districts and 100 proportionally nationwide, would also be acceptable to me: raising the threshold from 0.67% to 1% is much less of an issue to me.

[DavidB.]

Turnout at 13:45 was 28%. I don't seem to be able to get a similar number for 2021 because of the early vote then, but in 2017 it was 33%, in 2012 27%, in 2010 29% and in 2006 32%. Perhaps we're on course for a turnout figure more towards 75% than towards 80%, but who knows - turnout could pick up in the evening.

Oh yeah, a prediction, because why not.

GL-PvdA 32
PVV 30
VVD 25
NSC 17
D66 9
SP 6
BBB 5
PvdD 4
DENK 4
FVD 4
CDA 4
ChristenUnie 3
SGP 3
Volt 2
BVNL 1
JA21 1
BIJ1 0
50Plus 0

From a personal view, this is a doom prediction (in this prediction the combined left is higher than in the polls) but that's how I tend to see things - it can only get better than this.

Votes moving from NSC, BBB and VVD towards PVV make coalition formation much more complicated as the 'engine' to form a stable minority government without the PVV gets too small.

Long formation guaranteed. Options then:
- Grand coalition in the center with GL/PvdA, VVD, NSC and BBB or D66, guaranteed to ruin them all except for the VVD who remain eternally stable at 20-30 seats
- The minority government option (VVD-NSC-BBB) with Wilders, SGP and the small right (excluding FVD which no one will touch) pacified
- New election in June 2024, potentially together with EP election

[Oryxslayer]

the netherlands need a 5% thershold

No, what the Netherlands needs is to break the stigma around government formation.  We already are seeing some of it with talk of minority governments, but it should probably go even further.  The stigma on many-party governments needs to go as well. Cause it doesn't matter if you change the rules,  the culture will remain, and fragmentation will continue. The big parties vote shares will continue to decrease, and you have to be willing to invite some testimonials to the table. If that means more snap elections, then that's the trade off.

Long formation guaranteed. Options then:
- Grand coalition in the center with GL/PvdA, VVD, NSC and BBB or D66, guaranteed to ruin them all except for the VVD who remain eternally stable at 20-30 seats
- The minority government option (VVD-NSC-BBB) with Wilders, SGP and the small right (excluding FVD which no one will touch) pacified
- New election in June 2024, potentially together with EP election

Which gets to another reason why I think the Dutch need to begin inviting the smaller parties into government and putting them under microscopes: the Senate. You talked about how government formation will be long without mentioning how the large number of small parties and a peaked BBB basically means that there is no easy majority in that chamber without either group. Especially with NSC having 0 seats there. If any government wants a majority in the current senate, they either need BBB, need to build a wide coalition far larger than the majority threshold in the parliament,  or they work on a case by case basis.  

Which is a strong recipe for either new ideas or new elections.

Oh yeah, a prediction, because why not.

GL-PvdA 32
PVV 30
VVD 25
NSC 17
D66 9
SP 6
BBB 5
PvdD 4
DENK 4
FVD 4
CDA 4
ChristenUnie 3
SGP 3
Volt 2
BVNL 1
JA21 1
BIJ1 0
50Plus 0

I haven't been too involved in the discussion here, and have been busiest elsewhere,  but David has made the developments easy to follow over the past months.  So overall I feel fairly confident that GL-PvdA is going to come in first,  and it may not be that close. PVV peaked too early, and the fact it is them peaking is going to activate the tactical Left voting. Which is going to make things difficult in government formation, cause the smaller left parties are going to therefore have a horrible result and want to stay out of government,  despite them being one path to a senate majority.  Omtzigt and Timmermans have seemed in my mind to be naturally paired for government for a while even if they have reservations that need to be settled - Timmermans needs the PM slot and Omtzigt doesn't want it. But beyond that the options are going to be limited.

[DavidB.]

In the Netherlands the atmosphere points much more in the direction of a PVV 'victory', though - I'm in the minority in predicting GL/PvdA to come in first. All of my comments in this regard come with a disclaimer on how this shouldn't be relevant in a proportional system though.

The Haagse Insider account posted something interesting: "we look at Nissewaard". I looked up the turnout figures: in Nissewaard, historically the most PVV-supportive Rotterdam suburb (very working class), turnout at 14:00 is 5% up compared to 2021.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If there was a PM from a party other than the largest, this would be for the first time in forty years.

[Continential]

David, who did you vote for?

[jeron]

If there was a PM from a party other than the largest, this would be for the first time in forty years.

Yes, but it happened regularly before

[DavidB.]

Turnout was 40% at 15:45. In 2017, it was 43% at the time (with 81.6% total turnout).

If there was a PM from a party other than the largest, this would be for the first time in forty years.

And it was the PvdA too, being sidelined by smaller center-right parties. A historic parallel in the making?

David, who did you vote for?

Martin Bosma (PVV), weeks ago already, before knowing how any of this would develop (they were still below 20 seats in the polls). I don't live in the Netherlands anymore so I vote early, by mail.

Immigration is the most important topic to me, which makes it an obvious vote, but besides that, I also agree with the PVV on nearly all of the topics that are actually important to me. After 7 October, Wilders' vocal rejection of the disgusting antisemitic protests on Dutch streets and his steadfast support for Israel has been important to me too, but it's really the total package - immigration most importantly, in the end that's the cause of these protests too - that mattered.

I considered BBB too, but found them too unstable. Their worldview - some type of community-centered conservatism - enthuses me, but nobody knows how they will develop yet. I voted for 'surprise parties' that turned out to be ideologically unstable (Forum) or internally unstable (Forum, JA21) too often already, and I don't want that anymore. Wilders is ideologically close to me, what you see is what you get with him, and now that he could actually participate in government again there was really no reason why not to do it. With a PVV vote, I am also sure I am not inadvertently voting for a government with Timmermans anywhere near it.

[RGM2609]

While I'm not sure we agree on much (if anything), just wanted to say how great this thread has been! It made a complicated mess of an election easy to follow and understand even to uninformed foreigners. Hope today's outcome changes the country for the better!

[Hindsight was 2020]

Turnout was 40% at 15:45. In 2017, it was 43% at the time (with 81.6% total turnout).

If there was a PM from a party other than the largest, this would be for the first time in forty years.

And it was the PvdA too, being sidelined by smaller center-right parties. A historic parallel in the making?

David, who did you vote for?

Martin Bosma (PVV), weeks ago already, before knowing how any of this would develop (they were still below 20 seats in the polls). I don't live in the Netherlands anymore so I vote early, by mail.

Immigration is the most important topic to me, which makes it an obvious vote, but besides that, I also agree with the PVV on nearly all of the topics that are actually important to me. After 7 October, Wilders' vocal rejection of the disgusting antisemitic protests on Dutch streets and his steadfast support for Israel has been important to me too, but it's really the total package - immigration most importantly, in the end that's the cause of these protests too - that mattered.

I considered BBB too, but found them too unstable. Their worldview - some type of community-centered conservatism - enthuses me, but nobody knows how they will develop yet. I voted for 'surprise parties' that turned out to be ideologically unstable (Forum) or internally unstable (Forum, JA21) too often already, and I don't want that anymore. Wilders is ideologically close to me, what you see is what you get with him, and now that he could actually participate in government again there was really no reason why not to do it. With a PVV vote, I am also sure I am not inadvertently voting for a government with Timmermans anywhere near it.

There is something inherently f**ked up about supporting an authoritarian party that wants to destroy democratic institutions and blow up EU in a time solitary is needed more than because you’re obsessed with kicking Muslim immigrants out of a country you don’t even live in anymore