🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

The NOS site says turnout was 50 percent by 17:45, about 5 percent lower than 2017, when it was 81-82%.

It will be 76-77% today then.

[Double Carpet]

Thanks all for the updates re links etc - I did have a look just now and all the TV seemed to be geoblocked.

GeenStijl sounds worth a look too.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Anyone want to predict who will top the exit poll?

[DavidB.]

According to Ipsos, turnout was only 66% nationally at 19:45, 7 points down from 2017. That's really low and I got a completely different picture from the municipalities at opkomstenuitslag.nl, but obviously those don't have to be representative (still weird that Emmen was more than 5 points above the national average then). It's anyone's guess which voters stayed home, then, but my first hunch would be that it could disproportionately be the 'VVD-or-nothing' group and that the talk about Yesilgöz bucking the 'losing the PM = losing the election' trend was way too premature - but really, it could be any group staying home, or a little bit of everything.

[Zinneke]

Anyone want to predict who will top the exit poll?

Wilders, but it doesn't matter who's top

[DavidB.]

- NOS maps with results per municipality will be here
- NOS livestream here with exit poll at 21:00.
- GeenStijl will go live at 21:00 and you'll be able to find it at www.geenstijl.nl (probably their first post then).

[Double Carpet]

- NOS maps with results per municipality will be here
- NOS livestream here.
- GeenStijl will go live at 21:00 and you'll be able to find it on the first post at www.geenstijl.nl

Many thanks again David, that's great.

[Logical]

Turnout in selected major municipalities so far (20 45)

Amsterdam : 70% (75.7% 2021 - 78.9% 2017)
Rotterdam : 63.9%  (67.7% 2021 - 72.3% 2017)
The Hague : 68.6%  (71.9% 2021 - 75.6% 2017)
Utrecht : 79.4%  (81.7% 2021 - 83.8% 2017)
Eindhoven : 71.9% (75.1% 2021 - 78.3% 2017)
Groningen : 79.9% (81.7% 2021 - 83.4% 2017)
Nijmegen : 78.3% (80.2% 2021 - 79% 2017)

[DavidB.]

Turnout in selected major municipalities so far (20 45)

Amsterdam : 70% (75.7% 2021 - 78.9% 2017)
Rotterdam : 63.9%  (67.7% 2021 - 72.3% 2017)
The Hague : 68.6%  (71.9% 2021 - 75.6% 2017)
Utrecht : 79.4%  (81.7% 2021 - 83.8% 2017)
Eindhoven : 71.9% (75.1% 2021 - 78.3% 2017)
Groningen : 79.9% (81.7% 2021 - 83.4% 2017)
Nijmegen : 78.3% (80.2% 2021 - 79% 2017)

The big dropoff in Amsterdam is very remarkable.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Predicting PVV to be biggest party in exit poll.

[Oryxslayer]

Exit Poll from Nos/IPSOS:



Big lead by PVV

[tomhguy]

Welp, that's a lot bigger lead for the PVV than the polls were suggesting. The only nice thing about this is that I seem to have predicted the order of the main parties correctly lol

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Maybe not the most realistic for PVV to be excluded from government on these numbers.

[Logical]

PVV 35 (+18)
GL-PvdA 26 (+9)
VVD 23 (-11)
NSC 20 (New)
D66 10 (-14)
BBB 7 (+6)
CDA 5 (-10)
SP 5 (-10)
PvdD 4 (-2)
FvD 3 (-5)
CU 3 (-2)
SGP 3
Volt 2 (-1)
Denk 2 (-1)
JA21 1 (-2)
50Plus 1 (lol)
Bij1 0 (-1)

Welcome to Bulgaria

[Vosem]

Exit Poll from Nos/IPSOS:



Big lead by PVV

...

...

How realistic is not having Prime Minister Wilders at those numbers?

[Pericles]

Looks like it would be very difficult to form a government-what's the pathway from this?

[tomhguy]

PVV 35 (+18)
GL-PVDA 26 (+9)
VVD 23 (-11)
NSC 20 (New)
D66 10 (-14)
BBB 7 (+6)
CDA 5 (-10)
SP 5 (-10)
PvdD 4 (-2)
FvD 3 (-5)
CU 3 (-2)
SGP 3
Volt 2 (-1)
Denk 2 (-1)
JA21 1 (-1)
50Plus 1 (lol)
Bij1 0 (-1)

Welcome to Bulgaria

On these numbers, how realistic is a PVV+VVD+NSC+BBB coalition? Would NSC work with PVV?

[Mike88]

Wow

[crals]

Oof. Perhaps Omtzigt's idea of a government of experts wasn't so crazy after all...

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

PVV 35 (+18)
GL-PVDA 26 (+9)
VVD 23 (-11)
NSC 20 (New)
D66 10 (-14)
BBB 7 (+6)
CDA 5 (-10)
SP 5 (-10)
PvdD 4 (-2)
FvD 3 (-5)
CU 3 (-2)
SGP 3
Volt 2 (-1)
Denk 2 (-1)
JA21 1 (-1)
50Plus 1 (lol)
Bij1 0 (-1)

Welcome to Bulgaria

On these numbers, how realistic is a PVV+VVD+NSC+BBB coalition? Would NSC work with PVV?

Omtzigt has ruled it out.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Are there any countries where TV debates have such a provably huge impact on election results as the Netherlands? This isn't even the first time something like this has happened.

[Vosem]

Didn't Omtzigt refuse to rule out working with Wilders? PVV/VVD/NSC seems like the fairly obvious call on these numbers, even if that might make working with the Senate difficult and even if the deal those three outfits might reach is not obvious.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Absolutely insane after years of Wilders underperforming expectations.. this is the election that is THE breakthrough.

[Oryxslayer]

Well, Wilders will probably get the First attempt at government.  The remarkable thing is though,  his large lead seems to come from VVD so his math hasn't gotten any easier. Assuming the exit is perfectly accurate (lol) the "All-Right" government is at 69. Even throwing on SP to the pile of PVV+VVD+BBB+minor far rightist doesn't get him there. The easiest way to government is him hoping Omtzigt is willing to break his red line over PVV in Government.

Meanwhile,  the alternative tripartite of big parties will still need someone else to be bullied into forming government.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Looks like it would be very difficult to form a government-what's the pathway from this?

If it is genuinely impossible, then fresh elections. If it is just about possible, then a weak government (though there are different ways in which it might be week) which staggers on for a while (a year or so? Two?) before fresh elections.