🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)

[VPH]

On that quiz, I ended up right where 50+ is. I would probably rank my top three choices as: 1. CU 2. New Social Contract 3. CDA

[Harlow]

I&O Research poll, November 6-7:

NSC: 29 seats (+2 from 10/24)
VVD: 26
GL/PvdA: 24 (-1)
PVV: 18 (-1)
BBB: 8 (-3)
D66: 8 (+2)
SP: 6 (+1)
PvdD: 5 (-2)
FvD: 5 (+1)
Volt: 5
CDA: 4
DENK: 4 (+1)
CU: 3
SGP: 3
JA21: 1 (-1)
BVNL: 1 (+1)
BIJ1: 0
50+: 0

[tomhguy]

I&O Research poll, November 6-7:

NSC: 29 seats (+2 from 10/24)
VVD: 26
GL/PvdA: 24 (-1)
PVV: 18 (-1)
BBB: 8 (-3)
D66: 8 (+2)
SP: 6 (+1)
PvdD: 5 (-2)
FvD: 5 (+1)
Volt: 5
CDA: 4
DENK: 4 (+1)
CU: 3
SGP: 3
JA21: 1 (-1)
BVNL: 1 (+1)
BIJ1: 0
50+: 0

BBB looking like it could fall into 6th place - yet again another Dutch insurgent party which fails to sustain its growth. How long will NSC last after the election?

[Cassius]

I&O Research poll, November 6-7:

NSC: 29 seats (+2 from 10/24)
VVD: 26
GL/PvdA: 24 (-1)
PVV: 18 (-1)
BBB: 8 (-3)
D66: 8 (+2)
SP: 6 (+1)
PvdD: 5 (-2)
FvD: 5 (+1)
Volt: 5
CDA: 4
DENK: 4 (+1)
CU: 3
SGP: 3
JA21: 1 (-1)
BVNL: 1 (+1)
BIJ1: 0
50+: 0

BBB looking like it could fall into 6th place - yet again another Dutch insurgent party which fails to sustain its growth. How long will NSC last after the election?

Speaking as an outsider, I imagine they’d have the potential to do quite well if they go for the centre-right minority coalition option with some combination of VVD/BBB/SGP and the PVV tacitly supporting them from the outside. I think they could run into problems if they try the centre-left/“grand coalition” option with some combination of PvdA-GL/VVD (even if they are taking some voters from the former). The first coalition will probably run into trouble with the EU, but the EU don’t have the same purse strings to pull (ie wield as a cudgel) with the Netherlands as they do with Italy/the Eastern European countries, so there should be more room for manoeuvre.

[Harlow]

PVV reaches 21 seats in the latest Peil poll, its highest mark since November of last year. VVD, meanwhile, comes within 1 seat of overtaking NSC as the largest party.

[DavidB.]

Contrary to my expectations, Pieter Omtzigt announced he will "likely" stay in Parliament and prefers not to become Prime Minister, although he doesn't rule out the option entirely. I wonder how this will affect NSC's polling numbers numbers. On the one hand, Omtzigt is by far the most preferred PM candidate, so you could perhaps expect a drop in support. On the other hand, the usual "laws" of campaigning don't seem to apply to Omtzigt - his voters simply support him in any capacity.

Harlow already posted the I&O poll from earlier this week; I'll dig a little deeper into their report and highlight some interesting findings.

- I&O asked respondents which topics the election 'should be about' mostly; respondents could choose three. 46% say housing, 39% say healthcare, 35% say immigration and asylum, 27% say combatting poverty and 26% say climate change - these were the five most mentioned topics.

Only 4% say 'the war in Israel/Palestine' (sic) should be one of the most important topics. 55% of DENK voters say this, 36% of Moroccan Dutch voters and 31% of Turkish Dutch voters.

NSC voters find housing (59%), immigration (44%) and combatting poverty (36%) the most important. VVD voters prioritize immigration (47%), housing (40%) and healthcare (40%). GL-PvdA voters prioritize climate (63%), housing (52%) and healthcare (38%). PVV voters prioritize immigration (79%), housing (41%) and healthcare (33%).



- 14% of respondents follow politics 'very closely', 56% follow it 'in broad terms', 23% 'very limited' and 8% 'not at all'.

- 80% say they will 'definitely' vote, up from 77% on October 23 and 75% on October 9 (but 80% already on September 25). This number tends to be a good indicator for final turnout. Despite the sort of tame campaign, it doesn't look like turnout will be significantly down from the 79% last time; we can expect it to be similar to that.

- 22% of likely voters already made their choice. 60% have a first preference but still consider other parties. 18% don't have a preference yet. These numbers are very similar to the numbers in 2021 at the same stage in the campaign.

- Over the last weeks, NSC mostly attracted voters who previously preferred VVD and BBB. These voters think Omtzigt can bring change and NSC can be the biggest party.

- D66 is gaining voters from GL-PvdA. Interestingly, many of these voters say Voting Advice Applications such as Stemwijzer and Kieskompas indicated bigger overlap with D66. These voters also mention views on nitrogens and climate (on which they perceive D66 as 'greener'; painful for GL-PvdA).

- As for the parties losing votes: GL-PvdA mostly lose voters to D66 (as mentioned) and to Volt. 67% of GL voters in 2021 and 60% of PvdA voters plan on voting GL-PvdA. Both parties lose about 10% of their support to NSC. A little more than 10% don't have a preference yet; they consider GL-PvdA as an option, but have doubts about the merger of the two parties or about Timmermans specifically.

BBB are losing voters to NSC, VVD and PVV. It is my personal impression that switchers NSC seem mostly driven by 'pull factors' that make NSC attractive (i.e. they don't dislike Van der Plas, they just like Omtzigt more) rather than 'push factors' that would make them less pro-BBB. Switchers to VVD and PVV seem more unimpressed by BBB's campaign.

- The below table shows why voters of a certain party prefer this party. Respondents could choose as many options as they wished. From up to down: viewpoints, ideology, leading candidate, 'stands up for people like me', stable governance, online voting advice application, has been good in opposition, tactical considerations, out of habit, against other parties, because of good polls, stands up for regions [periphery], because of bad polls, 'don't know' (interesting one here).

40% of GL-PvdA voters mention tactical considerations, far higher than for any other party. 63% of NSC voters mention their leading candidate (Omtzigt), far higher than for any other party. CDA and VVD voters mention the 'stable governance' their parties supposedly offer. CDA voters also mention 'habit' by far the most (guess the age of these voters). BBB voters mention standing up for the periphery far more often than other voters; almost a third of D66 voters mention voting advice applications, far more often than voters for any other party.



- 48% of respondents already used an online Voting Advice Application. Stemwijzer was used by far the most often, by 40% of voters. 27% haven't used a VAA yet but still plan on doing so. They are used more often by younger, more highly educated voters who prefer Volt, D66, GL-PvdA or VVD.

- Regarding the debates already held, pluralities and majorities (depending on the debate) say Omtzigt won them. He is followed by Yesilgöz and then by Timmermans. 43% of voters who watched last week's RTL debate say Timmermans 'disappointed'; only 14% say this about Yesilgöz and 8% about Omtzigt.

Voters who say Timmermans disappointed say they think his plans are 'unrealistic', 'not credible' or 'too left-wing'; others say he changes his views too much or looks too angry. Voters who say Yesilgöz disappointed say she leans too much on using one-liners. Voters who say Omtzigt disappointed say he is too vague and talks too much.

- Trust in the national government is low: 35% say they trust it, 62% don't. The European Union (the elephant in the room and almost completely absent in the campaign...) receives similar numbers: 35% trust it, 61% don't. Municipalities are viewed much more positively: 57% trust them, 39% don't.

Harlow also posted about yesterday's Peil.nl poll. These are the numbers:



De Hond also made a calculation of the maximum number of seats parties can still gain or lose compared to the current poll when taking into account to what extent voters still consider other parties. This margin is particularly wide NSC; many voters of other parties still consider NSC but many NSC voters also still consider other parties.



De Hond points at the fact that starting this evening, Wilders will also take part in many television debates. In his live discussion of his poll's findings this morning, De Hond hinted at the possibility of the PVV making more gains in the last week, as Wilders can play the card that only a PVV vote is definitely a vote for a government without Timmermans and GL/PvdA.

- De Hond also polled opinions on some contentious issues. I'll present the issues followed by percentage of agreement and percentage of disagreement:

No use of English language at Dutch universities: 55/35
Nitrogen rules should not form an obstacle to construction plans: 71/21
Speed limit of 30 km/h in big cities: 50/40
Abolishing the monarchy after King Willem-Alexander: 37/49
Preferring a minority government over a majority government with a detailed coalition agreement with little room for parliament: 49/30
Reducing immigration more important than reaching climate targets: 65/28
Women have to wait for 5 days before they can have an abortion: 45/42
The Netherlands should leave the EU: 24/67
Fewer flights from Schiphol Airport: 56/33
No new wind turbines in the sea: 39/49
Introducing a 5% electoral threshold: 57/24
Nationalizing healthcare: 74/15
It is good that the Netherlands aims to be a 'frontrunner' in climate policy worldwide: 34/61
Much less money for the public broadcaster: 50/32
Calculating the financial effects of election manifestos is important: 58/31
The new pension law should not be adopted: 48/27
It should be allowed to build two more nuclear power plants in the Netherlands: 74/17
I support Ukraine entering the EU: 43/41
A Basic Income is better than the current system with welfare benefits and tax reductions: 59/22

Irony in one picture: CDA voters supporting a 5% threshold. You can also, you know... just not vote for the CDA?



Support by party preference on all of the issues here.

- It looks like Frans Timmermans is in a negative flow, and attacks between D66 and GL-PvdA are increasing. Timmermans' absence at tonight's RTL debate but presence at a PSOE party conference in Marbella, Spain, is also receiving some attention.

If GL-PvdA don't become the biggest party, and this seems very likely, I wonder whether their cooperation will continue.

https://twitter.com/AntoonKanis/status/1723216356244373971?s=20

[DavidB.]

I watched yesterday's RTL television debate. It was supposed to be for the six biggest parties, but Omtzigt and Timmermans decided to skip it, so their places went to Ouwehand (PvdD) and Marijnissen (SP), who joined Yesilgöz (VVD), Wilders (PVV), Van der Plas (BBB) and Jetten (D66). The debate revolved around three topics: housing, healthcare, and the decreasing standard of living; all three subjects are among the most important to voters but not discussed as often. The format was interesting: voters explained their situation - stuck in a house too small or too big because there is no housing available; a woman with a full-time job having to move in with her elderly mother to take care of her all the time because there is no place in the healthcare system; a working family on a lower middle class income not being able to make ends meet - which is all representative for hundreds of thousands of people, and then the party leaders had to provide solutions.

Overall, I'd say Wilders and Jetten did the best for their respective potential voters. Wilders benefits immensely from his 'moderated' and normalized image (partly due to his tone and partly to FVD's existence to his right) and wasn't attacked for being a 'racist' or 'far-right' even once, a clear shift compared to previous campaigns; Ouwehand and Marijnissen even complimented his stance on healthcare. He succeeded in looking somewhat statesmanlike while taking broadly popular positions and standing up for the poor and the elderly. Jetten, meanwhile, was the most clear 'left-liberal' voice; he defended climate spending, successfully attacked Marijnissen for 'promising free beers', and attacked Yesilgöz for proposed budget cuts on education.

Marijnissen did okay and was complimented all the time; she tried to steer the discussion into the direction of nationalizing the entire healthcare sector, but there wasn't much appetite for a debate on the actual system. Ouwehand was completely invisible, Van der Plas was fine but didn't stand out, and Yesilgöz had the most difficult time of all by defending the VVD's 13-year legacy in power on issues you can consider failures of the VVD.

Meanwhile I'm getting the feeling the GL-PvdA campaign is tanking. The Israel vs. Hamas war has painfully highlighted all of the generational and ideological differences between the two parties and put the campaign in a negative spiral. Timmermans is only dragging down the ticket at this point. Unless he turns it around I wouldn't be surprised if the PVV end up bigger than GL-PvdA and if voters flow back from GL-PvdA to their original left/progressive choice, which means Volt could go to 5-6 seats, D66 - who have a lot of money to blow which matters in the final days, when garnering attention in a crowded field is crucial - could end up with a double digit number of seats, and BIJ1 is likely to get in.

[Harlow]

No sign of GL-PvdA tanking yet in the latest Ipsos poll released today. They are up one seat since Oct 30. Though the only real significant movement is the BBB losing three seats, which is in line with trends.

https://twitter.com/Opiniepanel/status/1724397251273933289?s=20

[Pericles]

Is the VVD vote holding up relatively well, considering the economic situation and that they have been in power for 13 years? Doesn't appear to be a collapse like the UK Tories, but of course despite the same length in power the political contexts are very different so I'm interested in an informed take on this. Yesilgoz is new in her role of course, so how do you think the leaders are affecting the vote?

[DavidB.]

Two new polls. I&O shows NSC at -4 after Omtzigt says it is unlikely he will become PM, while not proposing a different candidate. He says the PM question isn't a big deal as the role of PM should be much more limited and power should be returned to parliament, but perhaps some voters don't accept this - they want to know who will be PM if they vote NSC.



But I&O could also be shamelessly herding towards yesterday's 1Vandaag/Ipsos poll posted by Harlow, which already had NSC lower and the VVD on top:

https://twitter.com/Opiniepanel/status/1724397251273933289?s=20

Is the VVD vote holding up relatively well, considering the economic situation and that they have been in power for 13 years? Doesn't appear to be a collapse like the UK Tories, but of course despite the same length in power the political contexts are very different so I'm interested in an informed take on this. Yesilgoz is new in her role of course, so how do you think the leaders are affecting the vote?

It is not November 22 yet so we cannot say for sure. But yes, the VVD vote seems to be holding up much better than you would expect after 13 years in power. And yes, Yesilgöz is playing a big role in this.

There are a number of reasons for this. Yesilgöz' image has been carefully crafted by the VVD over the last years. She can credibly present herself as the tough law-and-order voice after running the Justice & Security Ministry relatively smoothly. In addition, the VVD let the government collapse over immigration, a key issue to their voters, which helps Yesilgöz in convincing voters that this time they will really do something about it; finally, the VVD doesn't have to carry Rutte's 13-year baggage anymore.

Another issue is that the VVD was already at a much lower level of the vote - of 20-25% - than the Tories ever were when winning elections. There is a segment of Dutch middle-class voters (and upwards) who simply prefer the type of center-right stability the VVD have on offer. These voters like their lives, like optimism (one of the VVD's ways of branding itself), don't like complaining, and don't like people who complain too much. They don't particularly care about either the left-wing criticism of the VVD (rise in poverty, scandals) or the right-wing criticism (too much immigration, climate policy) because "we're doing well" (their perception, because they are indeed doing well) and the Netherlands is still a "very cool country", one of the quotes Mark Rutte kept giving and exemplifies his 'vibe' the most. A big chunk of VVD voters simply belong to the segment of society least likely to take economic hits.

And then there is the VVD campaign machine. They are in a different league from all other parties. The VVD test every aspect of their messaging - every word, every poster, every video, every one-liner - in focus groups. For example, Yesilgöz started speaking in a slightly lower pitched voice because focus groups allegedly showed that voters found the somewhat higher pitched voice more annoying. It is cynical, but these details matter very much. Other parties can't compete.

[DL]

Its interesting that people would consider the VVD to be "holding up well" compared to the Tories in the UK when most polls show them getting 27 or 28 seats out of 150 - meaning about 18% of the national popular vote.

Imagine if the UK Tories got 18% of the national popular vote - that would be considered an extinction event! Now of course it goes without saying that the UK and the Netherlands have radically different electoral systems and in Dutch politics there are huge incentives to vote for smaller parties that simply do not exist in the UK 

[tomhguy]

Its interesting that people would consider the VVD to be "holding up well" compared to the Tories in the UK when most polls show them getting 27 or 28 seats out of 150 - meaning about 18% of the national popular vote.

Imagine if the UK Tories got 18% of the national popular vote - that would be considered an extinction event! Now of course it goes without saying that the UK and the Netherlands have radically different electoral systems and in Dutch politics there are huge incentives to vote for smaller parties that simply do not exist in the UK 

I mean, it's also true that the VVD are only looking atm to lose around 5ish seats, which is only around 15% of their seats. Compare this to the Conservatives in the UK who are looking likely to lose around 200 seats or around two thirds of their seats! Now it becomes a bit more clear that one party is clearly doing worse respectively!

Also note how the VVD are most likely going to be part of the next government, while the Conservatives in the UK almost definitely will not!

[RGM2609]

You did mention Timmermans being a drag on GL-PvdA. Why is that, and do you believe they might be performing better with someone else at the top or were they always doomed by their position on the political scene and inner divisions?

[adma]

Its interesting that people would consider the VVD to be "holding up well" compared to the Tories in the UK when most polls show them getting 27 or 28 seats out of 150 - meaning about 18% of the national popular vote.

Imagine if the UK Tories got 18% of the national popular vote - that would be considered an extinction event! Now of course it goes without saying that the UK and the Netherlands have radically different electoral systems and in Dutch politics there are huge incentives to vote for smaller parties that simply do not exist in the UK 

Well, to put the "different electoral systems" shoe on the other foot, Tony Blair managed a 412-166 landslide over the Tories in '01 w/virtually the same percentage that Walter Mondale got in his all-but-home-state-and-DC landslide loss to Ronald Reagan in '84.

[DavidB.]

You did mention Timmermans being a drag on GL-PvdA. Why is that, and do you believe they might be performing better with someone else at the top or were they always doomed by their position on the political scene and inner divisions?

It's first and foremost because of his low favorabilities; these are much lower than Yesilgöz and Omtzigt. GL-PvdA already have a disadvantage vis-a-vis NSC and VVD because most of the electorate leans right. This means Timmermans has to unite the left to a very great extent to reach the same amount of seats as NSC and VVD can attain more easily.

However, I can't think of any other candidate that would have been able to unite the two parties to this extent. Rotterdam mayor Ahmed Aboutaleb (PvdA) does not have a green profile, was always sort of a paper tiger, and would undoubtedly be questioned about Israel 24/7. Any other PvdA candidate would either be too unknown (Moorman) or have too much baggage (Asscher) in addition to lacking a green profile. Any GL candidate would have done much worse with PvdA voters.

The Israel-Gaza war is definitely not helping. I am still surprised this has divided them so much. It's not just that, though; the same people are also angry Timmermans has confirmed we have an 'asylum crisis', has rejected the idea of 'degrowth', and has claimed the 50% nitrogen reduction target for 2030 (in their manifesto) is open for negotiation. At the same time I should perhaps not overestimate the influence of the "angry young left" both in GL and PvdA, which is very vocal about its dissatisfaction with Timmermans pivoting to the center; they may not reflect too many voters. But newspapers write about it and they do affect the entire atmosphere around Timmermans' campaign, hence why I used the word "tanking" in my previous post on this. Perhaps that was a little too strongly worded, but the overall atmosphere isn't that Timmermans is uniting the left.

Today, however, Omtzigt said a coalition with GL-PvdA would be very difficult. I wouldn't be surprised if GL-PvdA lose parts of the "angry young left" to BIJ1 and PvdD while gaining some center-left voters who initially preferred NSC who could be disappointed now. GL-PvdA seem to have reached their ceiling with left-wing voters and Timmermans' approvals are too low to make inroads with centrist voters, but they do have some room to grow among center-left voters. In addition to this, the possibility of a right-wing majority coalition (VVD-NSC-PVV-BBB) is gaining media attention. GL-PvdA is the most obvious tactical vote against this option and they will undoubtedly win over voters with this argument.

[CumbrianLefty]

Its interesting that people would consider the VVD to be "holding up well" compared to the Tories in the UK when most polls show them getting 27 or 28 seats out of 150 - meaning about 18% of the national popular vote.

Imagine if the UK Tories got 18% of the national popular vote - that would be considered an extinction event! Now of course it goes without saying that the UK and the Netherlands have radically different electoral systems and in Dutch politics there are huge incentives to vote for smaller parties that simply do not exist in the UK 

Well, to put the "different electoral systems" shoe on the other foot, Tony Blair managed a 412-166 landslide over the Tories in '01 w/virtually the same percentage that Walter Mondale got in his all-but-home-state-and-DC landslide loss to Ronald Reagan in '84.

Which just shows the fundamental meaninglessness of such a comparison, really

[DavidB.]

Just wasted 1.5 hour watching what will probably go down in the history books as an example of how not to organize a debate for years to come. Just embarrassing. The SBS6 debate with Omtzigt (NSC), Yesilgöz (VVD), Timmermans (GL-PvdA) and Wilders (PVV) escalated completely. Voters asked the 4 party leaders questions about their personal situation, the one even more terrible than the other - the worst example being a lady whose teeth are falling out of her mouth but she cannot afford to go to the dentist, which isn't part of the basic insurance package and costs a lot of extra money. Embarrassing how politicians have allowed this to happen. But instead of calmly coming up with solutions, the party leaders turned it into a long shouting match (particularly by Timmermans and Yesilgöz) - except for Omtzigt, who sometimes said absolutely nothing for more than 10 minutes. Winner of the debate: abstention, probably, and in all fairness Wilders, whose experience and sharpness stood out. Loser of the debate: everyone who wasted their evening watching this abomination. Good night.

Edit: According to a 'flash poll' after the debate by SBS6's own panel, 49% of those who watched thought Wilders won, 20% thought Yesilgöz won, 19% thought Omtzigt won, 8% thought Timmermans won and 4% thought no one won.

63% of those who watched say this debate will affect their vote - 43% became more certain of their choice, 12% started doubting their choice and 8% have switched their first preference.

[Pericles]

Edit: According to a 'flash poll' after the debate by SBS6's own panel, 49% of those who watched thought Wilders won, 20% thought Yesilgöz won, 19% thought Omtzigt won, 8% thought Timmermans won and 4% thought no one won.

63% of those who watched say this debate will affect their vote - 43% became more certain of their choice, 12% started doubting their choice and 8% have switched their first preference.

He's fourth right now? In a close election like this, could that debate be enough to change his position?

[DavidB.]

He's fourth right now? In a close election like this, could that debate be enough to change his position?

Yes, he could gain some more votes, enough for a seat or two + additional momentum in the campaign if this is true. If he overtakes Timmermans in the polls right before the election and pushes him to fourth place, that could also be quite damaging to GL-PvdA because it would make their leader's pitch for the Prime Ministership less credible and could cause left-wing or progressive voters to not vote tactically, but go back to their party of actual preference (D66/Volt/PvdD/SP).

Wilders actually hasn't done anything like this in any campaign since 2010. He was always relatively invisible, attended two or three debates in the final days before the election, and banked on getting out his base anyway. But after the FVD and BBB election victories he evidently saw something had to change. In March, I wrote this about the PVV's situation following the Provincial elections:

PVV: I'm getting repetitive. But the PVV also has a serious problem. Losing once - to Forum, in 2019 - can be an accident. Losing twice - to BBB, this year - is a pattern. In the end, thinking the PVV would bounce back so easily (which I did) was too easy to think and this conclusion should have been drawn after the 2021 GE already, when the PVV lost too, despite Forum having (virtually) collapsed already.

The PVV's problems are quite clear. There is a big pool of voters who sympathize with them, but few people who are really loyal and stick to them. Wilders is also unable to receive any momentum during an election campaign, which is due to several factors: they have no membership, so no money (and no subsidies) for campaigning, which are crucial in an increasingly crowded field; Wilders boycotts most media; Wilders is excluded by most parties and therefore building a coalition with him is unrealistic, which is why a vote for him is seen as a lost vote.

The biggest problem, however, is the crowding on the right. Competing with Forum hurt the PVV; then, competing with Forum and JA21 hurt the PVV; now, competing with Forum, JA21, BBB and BVNL is hurting them even more. BBB have momentum on offer and are "the true protest vote", JA21 have coalitionability on offer, Forum have being the anti-system party ("the real alternative", in their words) on offer.

None of this will change - so then the PVV should. If Wilders doesn't change his tune, the PVV will turn from one of the biggest poles in the Dutch political spectrum into just another splinter, just another voice in the crowd. Is he able and willing to do so? Probably not.

Looks like he realized this too.

The most painful moment for Timmermans: a woman from post-industrial Zaandam (former PvdA heartland) on permanent disability benefits running a food aid charity for poor people said she could not make ends meet because of healthcare copayments amounting to 385 euros per year (in addition to the mandatory insurance of at least 150 euros per month). She said she could cry when witnessing so much poverty these days. Timmermans said he wants to increase the minimum wage (tied to welfare benefits) and 'gradually' abolish healthcare copayments over four years, which would decrease poverty by 50%. The woman was shaking her head. Then Wilders stepped in and told Timmermans he needs to commit to abolishing copayments immediately; he said Timmermans can 'wait' because he receives 15,000 euros of unemployment benefits ('waiting money' in Dutch) from the European Commission per month - 'you can wait!' - but this woman cannot afford 385 euros for healthcare so she cannot 'wait'. Wilders also added that it is a disgrace Timmermans is the leader of Social Democracy but cannot commit to this, and that he has lost all contact with reality. Then, you could see the woman nodding. I can imagine left-wing voters finding this difficult too, seeing Timmermans being overtaken by Wilders to his left.

https://twitter.com/HartvNL/status/1725254942552920173?s=20

OIS did a poll for Amsterdam. Looks impressive for GL-PvdA, but they did better earlier this year running separately (almost 34%). In 2012, PvdA alone got 36% and GL another 5.5%, with the SP at 9%.

The most interesting figure here is for BIJ1. It could well be the case that black voters are simply underrepresented in this poll, so I'm cautious in drawing conclusions, but if BIJ1 are only at 2% in Amsterdam they are out for sure. They barely got in last time.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1725470855608582452?s=20

[DavidB.]

Peil.nl has PVV +5 and NSC -5. Pollster Maurice de Hond says the SBS6 debate was a gamechanger.

It makes GL-PvdA's push for the left-wing tactical vote easier. PvdA Amsterdam leader Marjolein Moorman already tweeted #stoptheright and that would probably be their most effective pitch.

[JimJamUK]

Peil.nl has PVV +5 and NSC -5. Pollster Maurice de Hond says the SBS6 debate was a gamechanger.

If the PVV came 1st, is there any chance of them ending up in government?

[DavidB.]

Peil.nl has PVV +5 and NSC -5. Pollster Maurice de Hond says the SBS6 debate was a gamechanger.

If the PVV came 1st, is there any chance of them ending up in government?

Yes, probably. In that case I could see a minority government with PVV, VVD and BBB being formed, with outside support from NSC and what is left of JA21 (useful because of their 3 Senate seats).

[jeron]

Peil.nl has PVV +5 and NSC -5. Pollster Maurice de Hond says the SBS6 debate was a gamechanger.

If the PVV came 1st, is there any chance of them ending up in government?

Maybe, but De Hond has overpolled PVV during the last two elections by at least four seats

[jeron]

Peil.nl has PVV +5 and NSC -5. Pollster Maurice de Hond says the SBS6 debate was a gamechanger.

If the PVV came 1st, is there any chance of them ending up in government?

Yes, probably. In that case I could see a minority government with PVV, VVD and BBB being formed, with outside support from NSC and what is left of JA21 (useful because of their 3 Senate seats).

Why would Omtzigt want to do that? It seems quite unlikely

[Mike88]

There are still 4 debates until election day. Things could change till Wednesday.