🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)

[jeron]

Some interesting voter movements from the exit poll

NSC

This makes clear that Omtzigt could easily lose about half of his voters by entering a coalition with PVV. They can go back to CDA, D66, PvdA-GL, PvdD and Volt

[jeron]

Timmermans is such a jerk and idiot though, i would not have voted for him. Neither on D66 who seems totally clueless esp. in his speech. Weakest speech of the evening. The interview with the VVD chairwoman was also very embarrassing, and probably the only good thing D66 chair did was criticizing VVD but really if you yourself win 10 seats and call yourself happy with that as D66, that's probably the silliest thing i've heard the entire evening.

I don't think I could see myself ever supporting those two. I like Jesse Klaver but Timmermans is stupid. I would have voted PvdD.

hahaha, you would have voted for a single use party which has voted internally the entier year!

[jeron]

They interview someone from DENK and the party's supporters use it as an opportunity to have Palestinian flags take up 66% or more of the screen behind the interviewee. That's certainly on-brand lol

Makes sense, most of their vote base is immigrants and mostly islam believers. It's also the right position, i would not vote for them because I don't think i would feel welcome there as a white. And because it's socially conservative and too pro-Erdogan.

The played right into Wilders' cards. From the river to the sea.....

[jeron]

They interview someone from DENK and the party's supporters use it as an opportunity to have Palestinian flags take up 66% or more of the screen behind the interviewee. That's certainly on-brand lol

Makes sense, most of their vote base is immigrants and mostly islam believers. It's also the right position, i would not vote for them because I don't think i would feel welcome there as a white. And because it's socially conservative and too pro-Erdogan.

The played right into Wilders' cards. From the river to the sea.....

I don't think that had much impact. DENK is basically irrelevant. And I think you underestimate how many ppl are supportive of Palestine.

I mean i wouldn't vote for DENK ever and i'm clearly supportive of Palestine.

I think you underestimate how many people on the right support Israel. And it is not just about Denk. It is about the slogan, the protests. Denk is just as irrelevant as PvdD

[jeron]

They interview someone from DENK and the party's supporters use it as an opportunity to have Palestinian flags take up 66% or more of the screen behind the interviewee. That's certainly on-brand lol

Makes sense, most of their vote base is immigrants and mostly islam believers. It's also the right position, i would not vote for them because I don't think i would feel welcome there as a white. And because it's socially conservative and too pro-Erdogan.

The played right into Wilders' cards. From the river to the sea.....

I don't think that had much impact. DENK is basically irrelevant. And I think you underestimate how many ppl are supportive of Palestine.

I mean i wouldn't vote for DENK ever and i'm clearly supportive of Palestine.

I think you underestimate how many people on the right support Israel. And it is not just about Denk. It is about the slogan, the protests. Denk is just as irrelevant as PvdD

It's not like people who hate DENK in 2023 didn't hate DENK in 2021 and they got far more coverage in the past. So an anti-DENK vote would have more made sense back than.

In fact the pro-Palestine positions would have more appeal than pro-Erdogan sentiment across the spectrum. Perhaps not really on the right that always used them as a scapegoat. But on the left where more people would support the Palestinian cause.

No. You are mistaken. Denk had a softer tone of voice for a while, but with its new leader they opted for a more aggressive strategy. It does not help them and it does not help their community. Like i said it is not just about Denk, it is about the (antisemitic) protests which simp0ly are not popular.

[jeron]

They interview someone from DENK and the party's supporters use it as an opportunity to have Palestinian flags take up 66% or more of the screen behind the interviewee. That's certainly on-brand lol

Makes sense, most of their vote base is immigrants and mostly islam believers. It's also the right position, i would not vote for them because I don't think i would feel welcome there as a white. And because it's socially conservative and too pro-Erdogan.

The played right into Wilders' cards. From the river to the sea.....

I don't think that had much impact. DENK is basically irrelevant. And I think you underestimate how many ppl are supportive of Palestine.

I mean i wouldn't vote for DENK ever and i'm clearly supportive of Palestine.

I think you underestimate how many people on the right support Israel. And it is not just about Denk. It is about the slogan, the protests. Denk is just as irrelevant as PvdD

It's not like people who hate DENK in 2023 didn't hate DENK in 2021 and they got far more coverage in the past. So an anti-DENK vote would have more made sense back than.

In fact the pro-Palestine positions would have more appeal than pro-Erdogan sentiment across the spectrum. Perhaps not really on the right that always used them as a scapegoat. But on the left where more people would support the Palestinian cause.

No. You are mistaken. Denk had a softer tone of voice for a while, but with its new leader they opted for a more aggressive strategy. It does not help them and it does not help their community. Like i said it is not just about Denk, it is about the (anisemitic) protests which simp0ly are not popular.

At the end i don't think people and I disagree with you.

Sure, not everyone will like those protests that's true but it's not just 2% of the population that supports Palestine.

If that truly was the case, PVV wouldn't win 35 seats I mean we have more than 2% muslims to start with already.

I don't understand your logic. I said Denk played right into Wilders'cards, which is clearly the case (you seemed to disagree with me). It is part of a wider anti-muslim sentiment. Denk and its thetoric don't help, they make things worse.
Than mrs Yesilgoz came along. And I am sorry to say this but there are simply people who don't want a 'Turkish' PM, there are VVD voters who don't want a Turkish PM and so they voted for Wilders. Of course 'from the river to the sea' is not the reason Wilders got 35 seats. I am fully aware of that. But it IS part of it.

As to them being irrelevant. No they are not. They represent a community within Dutch society and they play a role (in my view a negative role) in the public debate.

[jeron]

Calvinist hellhole (Urk)
SGP 48.3% (-6.2)
PVV 25.8% (+12)
NSC 6.0% (new)
BBB 5.0% (+4.9)
CU 4.1% (-4)
CDA 3.7% (-4.1)
FvD 3.7% (-5.9)
VVD 0.9% (-0.8 )
GL-PvdA 0.7% (+0.2)

First time SGP under 50% here?

No. CDA used to be much bigger and SGP smaller. And the CU predecessors were more conservative and therefore got more votes on Urk. In fact 2012 was the first time SGP got more than 50% of the votes there

[jeron]

With 94% of the vote in, De Hond and the GeenStijl team have the following final prognosis of the night:

PVV 38
GL-PvdA 25
VVD 24
NSC 21
D66 9
BBB 7
CDA 5
SP 4
DENK 3
PvdD 3
FVD 3
SGP 3
ChristenUnie 3
Volt 2
JA21 0
All others 0

JA21 are just below the threshold, it will depend on a few hundred votes. Getting flashbacks from the Israeli New Right party with about the same position in their political system being in the same position.

The GeenStijl crew are calling it a night now and so do I.

CU and SGP being the same size now is remarkable. Presumably a lot of CU voters went tactically for NSC-were there any significant issue differences between the two parties?

It was mixed. 12% to NSC, 8% to SGP, 6%,to Pvda-GL and the others to a range of other parties. There are clear differences between cu and nsc. CU is a protestant/evangelical party which has become more progressive throughout the years. Omtzigt is a catholic. His wife is syrian-othodox and he therefore appeals to that specific community and the armenian-orthodox, who are also potential CU voters because of religion and biblical values
Nsc wants to restrict immigration much more than CU (the issue that ended the previous government which included cu). CU is generally more supportive of environmental measures and combating climate change and in that sense sides more with the left

[jeron]

Now that most of the votes are in, here’s my stab at the top three winners and losers:

Winners
1. PVV: Self explanatory.
2. BBB: Failed to get the kind of massive result that looked possible earlier in the year, but then I get the impression that that was never the real purpose of the party. They nonetheless increased vote and seat share and have room to grow in the regions should NSC disappoint.
3. NSC: Failed to live up to the early campaign hype, but didn’t collapse completely either and will be vital to any government formation.

Losers
1. CDA: Catastrophically bad result for a party that was originally created to be a mass party with mass appeal. They’re now little more than a minor party and offer nothing that no other party doesn’t offer more convincingly. Had a dreadful result in Overijssel, previously their strongest province, where their vote seems to have gone over to NSC en masse.
2. GL-PvdA: Came second and increased their vote share, but in the end not by all that much (they only improved on their combined 2017 vote share by less than a point), and this came mostly at the expense of cannibalising other liberal and left-leaning parties, who had a pretty uniformly dreadful night.
3. NSC: A winner and a loser - on this side of the ledger, they underperformed expectations at the start of the campaign and their pool of voters looks so heterogeneous that they stand to lose a large chunk of their voters no matter who they go with in government (although I do think propping up a Timmermans-led government would be worse for them, given the fact they got their strongest results in places like Overijssel.

There is only one winner. In what world BBB would be considered a winner i don't know.
They made some spectacular own goals. The only consolation is that it could have been worse considering things went downhill rapidly the last couple of months.

[jeron]

99.3% counted, just 1 municipality yet to report. (10,3 million ballots)

The Dutch Caribbean is still to report and I don't know how or if the foreign ballots are counted yet.

The results of the foreign ballots are usually announced later

[jeron]

Rutte IV government parties
VVD 24 (-10)
D66 9 (-15)
CDA 5 (-10)
CU 3 (-2)

Goverment : 41 (-37)
Last time a government was defeated this badly was 2002.

2017: PvdA -29 and VVD -8

[jeron]

I have already said a lot depends on Omtzigt and what he wants, but really a lot also depends on the VVD.  Omtzigt may in theory think the GL/PvdA-VVD-NSC without official others is the better option,  cause it would be a confidence arrangement and theoretically give more power to the parliament like he wants,  but that's just him. If the VVD is PVV only, then that option vanishes.  And at least at this point, he would follow them to avoid a repetition.

Well, VVD is not clear about what it wants. After a VVD meeting of almost 3 hours all Yesilgoz ssid was " vvd isnot in the lead" and "the initiative lies with PVV and NSC"

[jeron]

The latest projections have the right-wing dream coalition (PVV+VVD+BBB+SGP+JA21) at a combined 72 seats, up from 70 at the initial exit polls, but still 4 short of a majority. I do not see them closing that gap.

Indeed. In this absolutely terrible scenario, there is a legitimate concern of the Netherlands being more Russophilic. Whatever they do with migrants is up to them sadly, but my hope is that these communist-right parties don’t actively sabotage Dutch support for NATO and Ukraine.

What the **** is wrong with you.

You should know better than write such a low tier post.

Not a single self-describing communist has voted for Wilders.

16% straight from the socialist party to PVV

[jeron]

Yesilgoz now said VVD is NOT going into government because of their election loss but would be willing to support it from the outside. The mess is complete and VVD strategy (whatever it was) failed.
Rumour has it that the VVD let the government collapse in july and wanted elections in September so Omtzigt would have no time to start his own party. It all backfired spectacularly.

[jeron]

Yesilgoz now said VVD is NOT going into government because of their election loss but would be willing to support it from the outside. The mess is complete and VVD strategy (whatever it was) failed.
Rumour has it that the VVD let the government collapse in july and wanted elections in September so Omtzigt would have no time to start his own party. It all backfired spectacularly.

Sounds like an attempt to sabotage negotiations as much as possible? VVD has the experience in government, and I imagine they would have worked as the glue between NSC and PVV.

It could be just playing hard to get. Or they think a minority PVV-NSC-BBB government will fail and VVD can benefit during the next elections

[jeron]

Hopefully PM Timmermans is at least being considered. The Netherlands would have to pay a huge price to uphold a dumb convention that the first placed party gets to govern.

The first place party only gets the first "crack" at trying to form a coalition - they don't always succeed. There was an election back in the 70s when the PvdA was the largest party - but then the CDA and VVD formed a coalition without them them and they were stuck in oppoition.

It happened in 1977 and 1982

[jeron]

Omzigt just informed that he is currently not ready to negotiate with PVV yet. He states that The PVV's election manifesto contains positions that are contrary to the Constitution. The NSC leader has proposed appointing an informant who will look along the lines of content of the big issues

Wilders reacted by accusing him of playing games and today Wilders reposted a letter written by a far right commentator in which Omtzigt was described as "sneaky Catholic" and "he thinks he is God".

[jeron]

- But a left-wing motion to scrap copayments for healthcare (in 2024 set to be €385 per person per year) was also adopted: PVV and BBB voted along with the left and gave the motion a majority. It is unclear what will happen next.

What was the specific party breakdown of this vote (I only ask because ‘left’ can be a pretty debatable label in The Netherlands)?

PVV, GL-PvdA, BBB, SP, DENK and PvdD in favor = 80 seats. All others against. Motion introduced by SP and PvdD.

 It was a leftwing motion because it was proposed by SP.
It probably won't happen any time soon because
a) the existing coalition of VVD-D66-CDA-CU did not support it and the current government will not bring forward a proposal
b) current negotiating parties VVD and NSC do not support it
c) the motion did not in any way specify how it will be paid for
d) another more conrecte motion to put forward a proposal in spring 2024 was defeated because GL-PvdA voted against.

[jeron]

A bit off topic, but why were Dutch governments so unstable in the 50s and 60s? If my counting is right, there were 14 cabinets in the twenty-eight years from the end of the war until 1973 and 17 cabinets in the fifty years from 1973 until today. Was it just that KVP, ARP and CHU were separate and more parties = more instability, or were there some other issues?

They weren't as unstable as they might seem. Some of these governments were only there to prepare elections. Which was the case for the first government (Schermerhorn-Drees) that was formed without prior elections