🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)

[DavidB.]

Doesnt the Netherlands have a pretty advanced welfare state much like Germany and the Scandinavian countries? How did they get that if the left has never won an election?

Yes. All relevant parties support the welfare state (in different ways). The PvdA has won elections and has often been in power, but always together with CDA (or with one or more of its predecessors) or VVD, who support the welfare state too (although VVD want it slightly smaller). We don't do bloc politics, so governments are rarely completely right-wing or completely left-wing.

[Pericles]

My first impression is that Timmermans is very qualified and he has been effective in the past. Hopefully the left is a strong presence in this election. Apparently the joint list are now first place in the polls, I'm interested to know how it's going down with the voters.

[DavidB.]

Ruben Brekelmans, one of the VVD's high potential MPs and parliamentary spokesman on foreign affairs, asylum and migration, says in Elsevier Weekblad that his party should cooperate with the PVV to decrease the number of asylum seekers in the Netherlands. According to Brekelmans, the collapse of the coalition shows the VVD cannot come to agreements on a tenable asylum policy with moderate left-wing parties, which means his party will have to turn to right-wing parties after the election. He also wants to cooperate with BBB.

Brekelmans has undoubtedly coordinated this with the VVD leadership and this means the VVD's blockade of cooperation with the PVV - imposed by Rutte in 2012 - is about to break down - unless Yesilgöz walks this statement back. This means we are one step closer to a right-wing coalition (even if the PVV may still provide confidence and supply instead of truly being in the government). Note that this is also a game changer for JA21: their "promise" was they were the only right-wing anti-immigration party that could actually govern and steer policy rightwards. If the VVD accept the PVV as coalition partners, what's the point of voting JA21 if immigration is your number one issue?

[Red Velvet]

Netherlands has an image as a fairly progressive party yet it seems pretty much every election, more vote for parties on the right than left so why is that?  UK, Australia, and US generally perceived as more conservative yet plenty of times where more vote for parties on left than right in those three.  True Democrats might have some who would be on left in Netherlands, but Labor Australia and UK Labour would definitely be on left even in Netherlands while Liberal Democrats in UK are sort of akin to D66 so borderline.

Netherlands; Luxembourg; Switzerland and Germany (the latter after those first three) are the most capitalist countries I can think of in Europe. Naturally, Cultural progressivism is different than economic leftism and those things don’t correlate the way people act like they do.

The Scandinavian/Nordic countries come exactly after them - Finland; Sweden; Norway; Denmark - but not as much as those first four I mentioned as there’s a better balance imo. But to my perspective they’re still quite capitalist too, though less orthodox than Netherlands.

While Southern Europe (France; Spain; Greece) tends to be much less of capitalists in comparison, which is why you see a much stronger left-wing electoral tradition during elections in general regarding the competitive parties.

[DavidB.]

Frans Timmermans is on a roll again. In 2014, at the UN Security Council, he infamously made up an entire story about the MH17 victims' feelings on the plane, as if they had been holding hands and hugging their children; he almost started crying while telling it. After being confronted about it by tv host and debate moderator Jeroen Pauw, he got so angry he never wanted to join his show Pauw anymore. Family members of MH17 victims were shocked. Yesterday, Pauw spoke about it on tv again, saying Timmermans' statements were "scandalous".

And now, Timmermans did it again. Summer storm Poly tragically cost a 53-year old woman in Haarlem her life on July 5th, and Frans Timmermans said this was "clearly related to climate change." Experts debunked this. Now, the deceased woman's partner gave an angry interview to De Telegraaf, saying Timmermans had certain facts about him and his partner wrong and that his comments had disrupted and politicized his mourning process.

All of this is just the beginning. Timmermans is loved on the left but absolutely hated on the right, even more than Sigrid Kaag. The MH17 story and Poly story will be repeated until the very end. This election may well become a referendum on Timmermans, which will doubtlessly deliver PvdA/GL a lot of seats, but will also make it very difficult for him to cooperate with anyone - especially when he has decimated all his allies.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ah, the Joop den Uyl tribute act strategy.

[oldtimer]

Netherlands has an image as a fairly progressive party yet it seems pretty much every election, more vote for parties on the right than left so why is that?  UK, Australia, and US generally perceived as more conservative yet plenty of times where more vote for parties on left than right in those three.  True Democrats might have some who would be on left in Netherlands, but Labor Australia and UK Labour would definitely be on left even in Netherlands while Liberal Democrats in UK are sort of akin to D66 so borderline.

Netherlands; Luxembourg; Switzerland and Germany (the latter after those first three) are the most capitalist countries I can think of in Europe. Naturally, Cultural progressivism is different than economic leftism and those things don’t correlate the way people act like they do.

The Scandinavian/Nordic countries come exactly after them - Finland; Sweden; Norway; Denmark - but not as much as those first four I mentioned as there’s a better balance imo. But to my perspective they’re still quite capitalist too, though less orthodox than Netherlands.

While Southern Europe (France; Spain; Greece) tends to be much less of capitalists in comparison, which is why you see a much stronger left-wing electoral tradition during elections in general regarding the competitive parties.

The cultural difference I think is due to environmental conditions which contained the Roman Empire to it's borders and no further.

Also those borders are mostly the religious borders between Protestants and non-Protestants, in western europe.

Basically the weather over the long run can make you behave differently (see Florida Man, Left Coast).

[DavidB.]

Timmermans knows his classics; when asked whether he truly thinks he can be the face of political change at age 62, he provides the exact same response as Ronald Reagan.

https://twitter.com/Tiesemans/status/1682411992114405376

[Zinneke]

The Timmermans I remember was less cringe tbh. I think he'll flop. He's still an excellent communicator, but he's been Brusselised. And not in the architectural way.

[DavidB.]

The Timmermans I remember was less cringe tbh. I think he'll flop. He's still an excellent communicator, but he's been Brusselised. And not in the architectural way.

I will vote for almost anyone if required to stop him from becoming PM, even including the VVD (hope it isn't needed...) - but I found this response to be very witty. The cringe part was his announcement in the first place, with very vague, indeed Brusselized language about change. And his statement on the Netherlands needing more "swag" had heavy "how do you do, fellow kids?" vibes.

Purely rhetorically, Timmermans is strongest when speaking normally and making very bold and clear statements on the edge of the truth (his MH17 comment was a feature, not a bug) in order to be inspiring. Vague politician-like claptrap about change doesn't make him sound better. I think he feels as if he is little out of touch with Dutch politics, and the vague stuff is a good way to play it safe and not offend anyone in GL or PvdA. But it won't work.

[DavidB.]

The only BIJ1 MP and party leader, Sylvana Simons, will not be a candidate in the election. She is chronically ill and very often absent from parliament. Still, her decision is a surprise. She says that in addition to her illness, she did not feel at home in The Hague; earlier, she said she "felt unsafe in this environment, where racism, Islamophobia and sexism are rampant." In addition, she says she was hurt by the two remaining BIJ1 council members in Amsterdam quitting the party and blaming Simons for not being there for them. Simons: "I have to defend myself against frames that are untrue. I can do it, but I don't want to do so anymore."

I am guessing Simons feared to win 1 seat again, in my opinion the likeliest outcome if she had run - I can imagine having to do all the (visible) work alone can make an MP feel lonely and vulnerable.

This is a disaster for BIJ1, as she was basically the only known person in the party. They are still set to "continue" (which I presume means: running in the November election) but at this point it would seem unlikely (but not impossible) for them to win a seat. There is talk about BIJ1 teaming up with De Socialisten (The Socialists), a splinter group mostly consisting of people from the expelled former SP youth wing Rood. While their ideals are similar and they probably agree on policy, there would be massive cultural differences as well as a different focus. I don't think it would be very wise for BIJ1 to do it; there is no electoral market for open communism.

--

The exodus continues: DENK party leader Farid Azarkan is also out. This won't necessarily mean anything for them, although Azarkan was key in attracting Moroccan voters in addition to Turkish ones, but I do wonder who will be the new leader - Tunahan Kuzu again?

[PSOL]

The thing is I don’t think Afro-Dutch people care much and .11% of the vote is very critical to get through the finish line. And there is a market for change given the implosion and disaffection to SP.

[DavidB.]

First Ipsos/EenVandaag poll since government collapse has VVD as biggest party. VVD-BBB-PVV-JA21-SP have a majority. PvdA gain a lot, but all from progressive/left-wing parties (D66, PvdD, Volt, SP). PVV also gain 4 seats, mostly at the expense of JA21, who seem to collapse in all polls now.

https://twitter.com/opiniepanel/status/1683794399430426626

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

So now van der Plas says she doesn't want to be PM. I assume this is preparing the ground for Omtzigt?

[DavidB.]

So now van der Plas says she doesn't want to be PM. I assume this is preparing the ground for Omtzigt?

It would be the most logical option, but both Omtzigt’s and BBB’s press officers have said this will not happen. This is politics so I still wouldn’t rule it out, but it doesn’t seem too likely as of now. Apparently Omtzigt is critical of “Big Agriculture” and finds animal rights to be important, which I didn’t know. We have to wait for Omtzigt’s statement, which should come this week. To me it seems as if he will either not be running or that he’ll be running only in Overijssel.

[DavidB.]

The CDA have officially attempted to get Omtzigt back - the chairman sent him a letter - but he says “that book is closed”. Contrary to what I said in my previous post, rumors get stronger that he will indeed attempt to run and not just in Overijssel. Had expected something today already, in a newspaper on Saturday, but we have to wait some more…

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1685751696356786176?t=gnVXfLoHEFXxrMeUgAiLwQ&s=19

[DavidB.]

https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1685751696356786176?t=gnVXfLoHEFXxrMeUgAiLwQ&s=19

He’s been posting about him since 2021 already. Another “issue” that is so incredibly relevant to Dutch voters.

[Bacon King]

or that he’ll be running only in Overijssel.

procedural question: doesn't the Netherlands have only a single nationwide constituency? What exactly does it entail, then, for a party list to only run in a single district? Only those voters will see them as an option on their ballot?

For that matter, how do district lists work when all the districts are part of one national constituency? If a party lists different candidates in each electoral district (and not just running the same list of candidates everywhere) how do the seats won by the party get allocated between the different candidate lists?

[DavidB.]

Pieter Omtzigt has tweeted he needs more time to make a decision. First, he will go on holidays with his family. A commentator in a vulgar mood calls his prolonged wait the "cockteasing an entire nation" and while I would self-evidently not use such terms, I understand where they come from... In any case, time is running out. The longer he waits, the more difficult it will get to assemble a list of competent and loyal people.

Meanwhile, PvdA MP Henk Nijboer will not stand for re-election. Nijboer, in parliament since 2012, is the PvdA's financial specialist. He talks about "concerns regarding the course of the party" and implies he does not agree with the upcoming merger of parliamentary groups with GroenLinks. "A broad progressive people's party should also appeal to groups in the center to offer an alternative to right-wing governments. They don't feel heard nearly enough by us. (...) Solidarity cannot exist without controlling the borders, tackling climate change requires more public support, and on financial and economic themes Drees' motto still stands: "Not everything is possible, and certainly not everything at once."

procedural question: doesn't the Netherlands have only a single nationwide constituency? What exactly does it entail, then, for a party list to only run in a single district? Only those voters will see them as an option on their ballot?

The Netherlands has a single nationwide constituency for the seat allocation, but, for mostly administrative reasons, 20 "electoral regions". I don't completely understand how this works - Freek is much better at these technicalities than I am, I believe - but the important thing to know is that it is, indeed, possible not to run in all electoral regions, and indeed, only these voters see them as an option on the ballot.

There are broadly two situations in which this happens.

Option 1 is many of the big parties - historically mostly CDA and PvdA - having the same first 50 or so candidates nationwide and then 10 or 20 "regional" candidates which differ per region. These candidates will probably not be elected but may attract voters. In theory, the candidate could actually be elected and the party may like it or not, but the person will be elected if he or she reaches the electoral threshold - and if Pieter Omtzigt had only been a regional candidate for the CDA in 2012 he would also have done so, due to the votes he racked up in his native Overijssel.

Option 2 is that of fringe parties (often lunatics) who don't get enough signatures in all electoral regions but still want to run in those where they do get them (usually the most populous ones).

Option 2b would be new parties in general who run in all 19 electoral regions in mainland NL, but not on the Caribbean Islands, as the limited number of votes to pick up there isn't worth the hassle. For instance, BBB ran in 19 electoral regions but not at the Antilles in 2021.

In other words: the standard is that parties run all realistically electable candidates in all regions, and therefore people don't tend to look into the details of the system - which now matter in Omtzigt's case. For the record: he received 67,626 preferential votes in Overijssel alone in 2021, when he was still part of the CDA. 69,486 votes were needed for a seat nationwide.

For that matter, how do district lists work when all the districts are part of one national constituency? If a party lists different candidates in each electoral district (and not just running the same list of candidates everywhere) how do the seats won by the party get allocated between the different candidate lists?

This is a good question and I cannot answer it. Come to think of it, our electoral system seems to provide for the possibility of having completely different lists in every electoral region - the only issue is that in this case, the candidates from more populous provinces would probably all be elected. No party does this, though. As far as I understand, seats are allocated based on the total tally of all votes cast for a party (that means on all lists of this party), then these seats are allocated first to candidates who crossed the threshold for preferential votes (as long as the party obtains enough seats to allocate those) and then to those lower on the list, depending on how many seats a party has left. But if party A runs a different list in every electoral region, obtains 8 seats and only has 3 candidates who reach the preferential threshold (let's say the number 1, 2 and 3 - somewhere), I would not know how the Electoral Council determines which numbers 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8 can take up the seat, out of the 20 regions, provided that none have reached the preferential threshold. Maybe Freek or someone else can help us out here.

[Pericles]

Who does it look like Omtzigt benefits or hurts? The hypothetical polling seems to show him forming the largest party and taking a lot of support from many parties, though maybe more from the right. Does it look like he has the skills to actually live up to those expectations?

[DavidB.]

Who does it look like Omtzigt benefits or hurts? The hypothetical polling seems to show him forming the largest party and taking a lot of support from many parties, though maybe more from the right. Does it look like he has the skills to actually live up to those expectations?

In these hypothetical polls, it looks like BBB, PVV and smaller parties SP and JA21 stand to lose the most if Omtzigt were to run. So yes, your conclusion is correct: it would hurt everyone a little, but some right-wing parties a lot. The extent to which he can live up to this partly depends on his other candidates and his campaign. Currently, Omtzigt can almost be whatever you want him to be - not entirely, because he has a track record of 20 years in parliament and he has recently outlined his ideas in the book A new social contract. But it will be interesting to see whether potential BBB/Omtzigt or PVV/Omtzigt voters will like his ideas on, say, immigration, agriculture or climate when forced to explain them. I am not completely sure these voters will then stick with Omtzigt. If he's running, attacking his positions will also become fair game - no one does this right now and no one has done it. But I still think his chances are strong. The polls for "preferred PM" tend to be a good indicator and he tops them all.

From a left-wing point of view, there are two ways of viewing it: on the one hand, right-wing votes move towards an option that can barely even be called right-wing, which left-wingers could consider to be positive. On the other hand, it is much more difficult to attack Omtzigt than to attack BBB or the VVD - first of all because the political fate of those who attacked him before (Rutte, Hoekstra, De Jonge) hasn't exactly been stellar and Omtzigt scored sympathy points with most voters with it, and second of all because Omtzigt's political views are probably about where the median Dutch voter is, unlike Van der Plas and Wilders (although they try on most issues). And I still think Omtzigt would prefer a coalition very similar to the one preferred by BBB: with BBB themselves, VVD, JA21 and SP, and maybe what's left of the CDA. A PvdA running separately would be a somewhat logical partner, but a PvdA-GL under Frans Timmermans less so.

Meanwhile, in the LOLnews department: the invisible BVNL MP Olaf Ephraim has split off from his party after being denied a spot on the candidate list. This means we now have a record 21 parliamentary groups. It is completely unclear why Van Haga didn't simply give him spot #3 and called it a day, because they will never get 3 seats. Ephraim retaliated with a spree of bellicose messages in an internal BVNL WhatsApp group, which have of course leaked. He implies he will now debate Van Haga as much as possible in parliament during the budget debates in September. Van Haga, meanwhile, has appointed former 50Plus leader Henk Krol as his "running mate" (this cursed term means: #2 on the list). Henk Krol is the champion of missed political opportunities and tends to enter politics with people who are politically finished soon afterwards. Perhaps it is also not the best idea to appoint someone on the issue of "pensions" when said person illegally refused to pay his staffers at newspaper GayKrant their pensions. This is truly the Dutch populist right at its very worst.

[jeron]

Who does it look like Omtzigt benefits or hurts? The hypothetical polling seems to show him forming the largest party and taking a lot of support from many parties, though maybe more from the right. Does it look like he has the skills to actually live up to those expectations?

In these hypothetical polls, it looks like BBB, PVV and smaller parties SP and JA21 stand to lose the most if Omtzigt were to run. So yes, your conclusion is correct: it would hurt everyone a little, but some right-wing parties a lot. The extent to which he can live up to this partly depends on his other candidates and his campaign. Currently, Omtzigt can almost be whatever you want him to be - not entirely, because he has a track record of 20 years in parliament and he has recently outlined his ideas in the book A new social contract. But it will be interesting to see whether potential BBB/Omtzigt or PVV/Omtzigt voters will like his ideas on, say, immigration, agriculture or climate when forced to explain them. I am not completely sure these voters will then stick with Omtzigt. If he's running, attacking his positions will also become fair game - no one does this right now and no one has done it. But I still think his chances are strong. The polls for "preferred PM" tend to be a good indicator and he tops them all.

From a left-wing point of view, there are two ways of viewing it: on the one hand, right-wing votes move towards an option that can barely even be called right-wing, which left-wingers could consider to be positive. On the other hand, it is much more difficult to attack Omtzigt than to attack BBB or the VVD - first of all because the political fate of those who attacked him before (Rutte, Hoekstra, De Jonge) hasn't exactly been stellar and Omtzigt scored sympathy points with most voters with it, and second of all because Omtzigt's political views are probably about where the median Dutch voter is, unlike Van der Plas and Wilders (although they try on most issues). And I still think Omtzigt would prefer a coalition very similar to the one preferred by BBB: with BBB themselves, VVD, JA21 and SP, and maybe what's left of the CDA. A PvdA running separately would be a somewhat logical partner, but a PvdA-GL under Frans Timmermans less so.

Omtzigt seems to be popular among some left wing voters which is kind of weird considering his 20 year parliamentarian streak. He has been a rather conservative CDA member. Of course we do not know his future ideas yet so maybe he will pander to left wing voters during the campaign.
As to the SP joining such a right wing coalition, the idea is quite absurd. The SP does not want to be in a coalition with VVD, let alone JA21.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Who does it look like Omtzigt benefits or hurts? The hypothetical polling seems to show him forming the largest party and taking a lot of support from many parties, though maybe more from the right. Does it look like he has the skills to actually live up to those expectations?

In these hypothetical polls, it looks like BBB, PVV and smaller parties SP and JA21 stand to lose the most if Omtzigt were to run. So yes, your conclusion is correct: it would hurt everyone a little, but some right-wing parties a lot. The extent to which he can live up to this partly depends on his other candidates and his campaign. Currently, Omtzigt can almost be whatever you want him to be - not entirely, because he has a track record of 20 years in parliament and he has recently outlined his ideas in the book A new social contract. But it will be interesting to see whether potential BBB/Omtzigt or PVV/Omtzigt voters will like his ideas on, say, immigration, agriculture or climate when forced to explain them. I am not completely sure these voters will then stick with Omtzigt. If he's running, attacking his positions will also become fair game - no one does this right now and no one has done it. But I still think his chances are strong. The polls for "preferred PM" tend to be a good indicator and he tops them all.

From a left-wing point of view, there are two ways of viewing it: on the one hand, right-wing votes move towards an option that can barely even be called right-wing, which left-wingers could consider to be positive. On the other hand, it is much more difficult to attack Omtzigt than to attack BBB or the VVD - first of all because the political fate of those who attacked him before (Rutte, Hoekstra, De Jonge) hasn't exactly been stellar and Omtzigt scored sympathy points with most voters with it, and second of all because Omtzigt's political views are probably about where the median Dutch voter is, unlike Van der Plas and Wilders (although they try on most issues). And I still think Omtzigt would prefer a coalition very similar to the one preferred by BBB: with BBB themselves, VVD, JA21 and SP, and maybe what's left of the CDA. A PvdA running separately would be a somewhat logical partner, but a PvdA-GL under Frans Timmermans less so.

Omtzigt seems to be popular among some left wing voters which is kind of weird considering his 20 year parliamentarian streak. He has been a rather conservative CDA member. Of course we do not know his future ideas yet so maybe he will pander to left wing voters during the campaign.
As to the SP joining such a right wing coalition, the idea is quite absurd. The SP does not want to be in a coalition with VVD, let alone JA21.

Isn't that because of his role in exposing a benefits denial scandal ?

[DavidB.]

Omtzigt seems to be popular among some left wing voters which is kind of weird considering his 20 year parliamentarian streak. He has been a rather conservative CDA member. Of course we do not know his future ideas yet so maybe he will pander to left wing voters during the campaign.

I think Omtzigt's popularity among left-wing voters can be explained very easily: he stands up for marginalized people who are being crushed by the government machinery. This is the core of his legacy in parliament, most importantly because of his role in exposing the childcare benefits scandal - and it is what the left is supposed to do. I also don't think his streak in parliament can be unequivocally called "conservative". He is more of a euroskeptic, true, but seems more left-wing on socio-economic issues than the CDA (see also: his support for increasing the minimum wage by 10%, which was eliminated by Hoekstra from the 2021 draft election manifesto at the last moment). On immigration he is more to the right, but on agriculture more to the left.

As to the SP joining such a right wing coalition, the idea is quite absurd. The SP does not want to be in a coalition with VVD, let alone JA21.

This may be your impression but it is not what they say. They excluded the VVD in 2017 but softened this position that fall. Then SP chairman Ron Meyer in De Volkskrant: "Excluding a party is never permanent."

In 2021, Lilian Marijnissen only excluded cooperation with the PVV and Forum for Democracy but she did explicitly not exclude cooperation with the VVD. From NOS: "She does not wish to anticipate on specific potential coalition partners, but will definitely not [enter a coalition] with PVV and Forum for Democracy. She does not wish to completely exclude the VVD [as potential partner], but they are at the bottom of the list." For Marijnissen, the most important thing was the SP would "only enter a government that would decrease inequality".

On the local and provincial level, VVD and SP have already cooperated successfully. With Rutte out and the new VVD leader not carrying a lot of negative baggage, the most important obstacle for VVD-SP cooperation on the national level is removed. I don't think it is far-fetched at all. The only alternative for the SP is ever-further marginalization in opposition.