🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)

[Mike88]

Just when you thought Dutch politics couldn't get anymore ridiculous. Amazing stuff.

Do you think BBB can be considered a CDA splinter?

Well, their leader Caroline van der Plas was a CDA member until 2019. So, probably yes.

[Mike88]

First poll after the Provincial elections, massive BBB surge:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1639904955732488192

[Mike88]

Ipsos poll:

Vote share % and seats: (compared with the previous poll)

17.9% BBB, 28 seats (+14)
17.2% VVD, 27 (-2)
  7.8% PPV, 12 (-4)
  7.7% D66, 12 (-3)
  7.4% PvdA, 12 (+2)
  7.0% GL, 11 (+1)
  5.1% PvdD, 8 (-1)
  4.9% SP, 7 (-1)
  4.6% CDA, 7 (-2)
  4.3% JA21, 6 (-3)
  3.0% FvD, 4 (nc)
  2.9% Volt, 4 (nc)
  2.5% CU, 4 (-1)
  2.4% DENK, 3 (nc)
  2.3% SGP, 3 (nc)
  0.9% 50+, 1 (nc)
  0.8% BIJ1, 1 (nc)
  1.3% Others, 0 (nc)

Rutte government: 50 seats (-8)

Poll conducted between 24 and 27 March 2023. Polled 1,005 voters.

[Mike88]

So, snap elections in September?

[Mike88]

The end of an era in the Netherlands.

An EU job seems improbable for Rutte as Von der Leyen is expected to continue and the European Council Chair post is normally given to incumbent leaders. But, maybe President of the EU Parliament? The NATO leadership is also up for grabs next year, but not sure if the US will accept another European to the post.

[Mike88]

The end of an era in the Netherlands.

An EU job seems improbable for Rutte as Von der Leyen is expected to continue and the European Council Chair post is normally given to incumbent leaders. But, maybe President of the EU Parliament? The NATO leadership is also up for grabs next year, but not sure if the US will accept another European to the post.

He won't accept the EP Parliament President gig because he probably doesn't respect the EP enough as an institution coming from a veteran Council member and head of state. Unless he wants to just put his feet up and loves the Brussels networking culture he won't take it.

He could be EU council President easily as Michel is hapless and there is no better veteran in the current crop that can do what he does.

Von Der Leyen isn't confirmed and some people reckon Biden is pushing her for the NATO gig which is scary given how she managed MoD for her country and fell upwards into the Commission role. But she's a good Atlantacist that the French also like which is a rarity.

NATO is maybe more prestigious still for Rutte but let's see. Maybe he could do with an extended break. He seemed to resign "from politics" so I reckon it'll be a less publicly demanding role, but still diplomatic.

The problem for Rutte is that he's from ALDE and because the European Council is already in the hands of a ALDE member, the likeliest successor of Michel will be either from EPP or PES. The same for the European Commission, as the job normally goes to the party that wins the EP elections, and ALDE is in a fight for 3rd place with ECR according to polls.

But, yeah, maybe NATO is the more probable, it's less "party politics". We'll see.

[Mike88]

This question may have already been answered but, what's Omtzigt appeal? I mean, the guy had been flirting with the idea of running or creating a party for a long time, and now that he has created one, he doesn't confirm if he will file the maximum number of candidates for MPs and doesn't want to be Prime Minister. Is there a possibility of Omtzigt having the same fate of BBB, its "15 minutes of fame" and then starting to fell as the novelty effect ends?

[Mike88]

The PvdD want to reduce the number of cattle in the Netherlands by 75% in two (!) years (apparently the government doesn't have to be a trustworthy partner to farmers)

Would this not involve killing an enormous number of animals?

[Mike88]

Ipsos published a new poll and VVD holds on to the lead, while NSC loses one seat. GL/PvdA gains two seats, PVV loses one and BBB maintains the 12 seats of the previous poll.

[Mike88]

There are still 4 debates until election day. Things could change till Wednesday.

[Mike88]

Yeah, no chance Wilders leads the government.

Omtzigt has now announced that he is willing to be PM, but only in a government consisting of experts. Smart move and could save some of his support, as this is a rather popular idea. But he should really have come up with it earlier. He comes across as too indecisive.

This could also be perceived as a desperate flip-flop in order to regain votes. And, let's be frank, a government of experts? Sure.

[Mike88]

Yeah, no chance Wilders leads the government.

Omtzigt has now announced that he is willing to be PM, but only in a government consisting of experts. Smart move and could save some of his support, as this is a rather popular idea. But he should really have come up with it earlier. He comes across as too indecisive.

This could also be perceived as a desperate flip-flop in order to regain votes. And, let's be frank, a government of experts? Sure.

Such proposals always have a certain amount of electoral appeal due to "anti-politics" sentiment.

I agree, but at this late stage it's just desperate. Either he ran on it since the beginning, or voters will just see someone freaking out.

[Mike88]

Another attack against Thierry Baudet, FvD leader. Baudet was treated at a Hospital due to an injury near the eye.

https://twitter.com/MrAndyNgo/status/1726679653233144277

[Mike88]

If I&O has PVV in the lead, then Peil, which normally overpolls PVV, almost certainly has them in the lead also. Curious to see the Ipsos numbers.

[Mike88]

Wow

[Mike88]

Just 1.0% counted:

27.8% PVV (+14.6)
14.0% NSC (new)
13.9% VVD (-7.7)
11.0% GL–PvdA (+1.7)
  6.3% BBB (+0.1)
  4.6% CDA (-7.8 )
  4.1% D66 (-6.5)
  2.9% CU (-2.0)
  2.8% SP (-3.2)
  2.1% FvD (-3.6)
  1.5% PvdD (-1.4)
  0.8% Volt (-0.4)
  0.6% JA21 (-1.7)

[Mike88]

Groningen, Netherlands' 6th largest city has just reported its results:

30.4% GL-PvdA (+11.6)
13.2% PVV (+7.5)
11.6% NSC (new)
10.6% VVD (-3.1)
  9.0% D66 (-14.0)
  4.3% SP (-3.3)
  4.1% PVdD (-1.9)
  3.8% Volt (-1.7)
  2.6% CU (-1.4)
  2.3% BBB (+1.9)

[Mike88]

PVV also won in The Hague:

17.5% PVV (+6.4)
15.5% GL-PvdA (+3.4)
12.3% VVD (-7.6)
  7.1% DENK (-0.2)
  6.8% D66 (-11.0)
  6.8% NSC (new)
  2.7% PVdD (-2.3)
  2.1% SP (-2.0)
  2.1% FvD (-2.2)
  1.9% Volt (-1.3)

[Mike88]

Amsterdam:

28.8% GL-PvdA (+11.2)
10.2% VVD (-2.8 )
  8.5% D66 (-14.2)
  8.2% PVV (+3.1)
  6.2% DENK (-0.4)
  5.6% NSC (new)
  4.0% PVdD (-3.0)
  3.4% Volt (-2.5)
  2.7% SP (-2.2)
  2.2% FvD (-0.5)

[Mike88]

45.9% counted (4,7 million ballots)

22.5% PVV (+12.1)
15.2% GL-PvdA (+4.3)
14.5% VVD (-6.7)
12.3% NSC (new)
  5.9% D66 (-9.0)
  4.7% BBB (+3.6)
  3.3% CDA (-6.1)
  3.0% SP (-2.8 )
  2.6% SGP (nc)
  2.5% DENK (+0.2)
  2.2% PVdD (-1.7)
  2.2% FvD (-2.6)
  2.2% CU (-1.4)
  1.6% Volt (-0.8 )
  0.7% JA21 (-1.7)
  0.5% BIJ1 (-0.6)

[Mike88]

99.3% counted, just 1 municipality yet to report. (10,3 million ballots)

23.5% PVV (+12.7)
15.5% GL-PvdA (+4.7)
15.1% VVD (-6.7)
12.8% NSC (new)
  6.2% D66 (-8.8 )
  4.6% BBB (+3.6)
  3.3% CDA (-6.2)
  3.1% SP (-2.9)
  2.3% DENK (+0.3)
  2.2% FvD (-2.8 )
  2.2% PvdD (-1.6)
  2.1% SGP (nc)
  2.0% CU (-1.4)
  1.7% Volt (-0.7)
  0.7% JA21 (-1.7)
  0.5% BVNL (new)
  0.5% 50Plus (-0.5)
  0.4% BIJ1 (-0.4)
  1.3% Others (-0.4)

77.7% Turnout (-1.1)