Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Storr]

This could very well be video of the 65 Ukrainian POWs being loaded onto the plane that was shot down. But there isn't anyway to tell that from this grainy undated video.

"Best summary of the newly-released video from the Russian Investigative Committee supposedly showing Ukrainian PoWs being loaded into the plane that wrecked: "Someone, at some time, somewhere, was loaded into some sort of airplane""

Thanks to geolocators on Twitter, we know that the video is from Chkalovsky Airbase located 31km from Moscow.  

https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1750982933974811088?s=20

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://pravda-en.com/usa/2024/01/26/284928.html

"Putin: the means of destruction from the Il-76 crash site point to the air defense of France or the United States"

Putin says the air defense system that destroyed the Il-76 is French or American and that Russia will figure it out exactly in a few days.

This suits Putin's narrative domestically. Pining it on the US makes sense for him.

[jaichind]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/01/26/ukraine-war-plan-biden-defense/

"U.S. war plans for Ukraine don’t foresee retaking lost territory"

Still smarting from last year’s failed counteroffensive in Ukraine, the Biden administration is putting together a new strategy that will de-emphasize winning back territory and focus instead on helping Ukraine fend off new Russian advances while moving toward a long-term goal of strengthening its fighting force and economy.

[jaichind]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-struggle-to-save-the-minds-of-traumatised-troops-before-sending-them-back-out-2j73g2z5w

"The struggle to save the minds of traumatised troops — before sending them back out"

The Times says that up to 30% of Ukrainian soldiers at the front suffer from acute mental disorders.

[jaichind]

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/whole-uk-must-prepare-conscription-31978009

"EXCLUSIVE: Whole UK 'must prepare for conscription within 6 years' unless Putin defeated, claims prof"

Prof Anthony Glees, security and intelligence expert at the University of Buckingham, told the Mirror General Sir Patrick Sanders is 'absolutely right' in his warning about conscription

So if Putin wins in Ukraine then Russia's power will rise to a level above the USSR during the Cold War and pose a threat to the UK beyond what the USSR posed during the Cold War ?

[GoTfan]

He probably does. He has talked many times about how the fall of the USSR was a tragedy and desires the return of the USSR and even Russian Imperial borders.

If you think he's going to stop at Ukraine, then you're not really paying attention.

[jaichind]

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/01/27/7439193/

"Ukraine's spy chief: Prisoner exchange will take place very soon"

Kyrylo Budanov, Chief of Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence, has said that the prisoner exchange that had originally been planned for 24 January, the day the Russian Il-76 aircraft crashed in Russia, will take place very soon.

I am not sure such an exchange can take place when the Ukraine POWs are dead.  To be fair my understanding is the exchange involved a lot more POWs on both sides so perhaps the exchange will take place minus the Ukraine POWs who were killed in the shooting down of the  Il-76.  

It is weird, though, if Russia is murdering Ukraine POWs in cold blood, as Ukraine claims, then why should Ukraine play a role in any prisoner exchanges with Russia.

[jaichind]

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/28/world/europe/ukraine-conscription-mobilization-bill.html

"After Two Years of Bloody Fighting, Ukraine Wrestles With Conscription"

Soldiers at the front said that they had noticed a steady decline in the quality of recruits. Many are older, nursing injuries from years ago and unmotivated to fight. More men are also trying to avoid the draft, escaping the country or hiding at home. Desertion, said one Ukrainian soldier stationed in the east, is also becoming an issue.

It seems the same old story.  Both Zelensky and the Ukraine military want conscription but neither wants to do with the political and economic consequences of conscription and wants to shift the blame of construction to the other side.

[jaichind]

https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/27/europe/ukraine-battlefield-reality-intl-hnk/index.html

"‘The enemy is amassing’: Ukrainian army officials give unvarnished account of the battlefield"

Ukrainian officials have warned that Russia is conducting offensive operations along much of the frontline, with Ukraine’s military trying to hold its positions as its ammunition begins to run low and United States funding remains stalled in Congress.

[jaichind]

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/01/us-congress-support-ukraine-war/677256/

"Is Congress Really Going to Abandon Ukraine Now?"

The Atlantic: US withdrawal of aid to Ukraine will convince the world not to trust Washington which is pretty much an appeal and threat to the non-MAGA GOP

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/01/27/7439193/

"Ukraine's spy chief: Prisoner exchange will take place very soon"

Kyrylo Budanov, Chief of Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence, has said that the prisoner exchange that had originally been planned for 24 January, the day the Russian Il-76 aircraft crashed in Russia, will take place very soon.

I am not sure such an exchange can take place when the Ukraine POWs are dead.  To be fair my understanding is the exchange involved a lot more POWs on both sides so perhaps the exchange will take place minus the Ukraine POWs who were killed in the shooting down of the  Il-76.  

It is weird, though, if Russia is murdering Ukraine POWs in cold blood, as Ukraine claims, then why should Ukraine play a role in any prisoner exchanges with Russia.

Ummm to save their pows?! I get you’re a bit sociopath jaichind but you seriously can’t see why a country might try to save their pows if they think their lives are in danger being in the enemies hands?

[jaichind]

https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/europa/ukraine-betrug-waffenbeschaffung-100.html

"Ukraine uncovers arms procurement fraud"

German media reports that Ukraine's SBU has uncovered procurement fraud in mortar shells.

[jaichind]

Economic scoreboard.  Average investment bank surveys GDP (2022 and 2023) and CPI 2022 for key economies
 
2022 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +2.6%       +4.0%       +3.7%      +4.4%*     +5.1%         +2.8%
March      -9.6%        +3.3%      +3.6%       +4.0%*    +5.0%          +2.4%
April      -10.0%        +2.9%       +3.3%      +3.9%*    +4.9%          +2.2%
May       -10.0%        +2.8%       +2.7%      +3.8%*    +4.5%          +1.9%
June        -9.6%        +2.6%       +2.6%      +3.7%*    +4.1%          +1.8%
July         -8.4%        +2.7%       +2.1%      +3.4%*    +3.9%          +1.6%
Aug         -8.0%        +2.8%       +1.6%      +3.4%*    +3.5%          +1.5%
Sept        -6.0%        +2.9%       +1.6%      +3.5%*    +3.4%          +1.6%
Oct          -4.5%        +3.0%       +1.7%      +4.1%      +3.3%          +1.6%
Nov         -3.6%        +3.2%       +1.8%      +4.2%      +3.3%          +1.5%
Dec         -3.3%        +3.2%       +1.9%      +4.3%      +3.0%          +1.4%
Jan          -3.0%        +3.3%       +2.1%      +4.2%      +3.0%          +1.3%
Feb          -2.1%        +3.4%       +2.1%      +4.1%      +3.0%         +1.1%
Mar          -2.1%        +3.5%       +2.1%      +4.3%      +3.0%         +1.0%
April         -2.1%        +3.5%       +2.1%      +4.3%     +3.0%          +1.0%
May          -2.1%        +3.5%       +2.1%      +4.3%     +3.0%          +1.0%
************************************Adjustments made**************************
Oct           -2.1%        +3.4%       +1.9%      +4.5%     +3.0%          +1.1%
Dec          -2.1%         +3.4%      +1.9%      +4.5%     +3.0%          +1.0%
****************************   Data pretty much locked in ***********************


* - pre-adjustment. In early Oct UK adjusted its 2020 and 2021 GDP downward lowering the total GDP for both years.  The base effect of that change shifted the 2022 UK GDP growth upward.  All the 2022 GDP projections for the UK before Oct should really be something like 0.6% higher for a like-for-like comparison.

Japan's official 2022 GDP growth adjusted back down to 1.0% from 1.1%

2023 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb          +2.1%      +2.5%        +2.5%       +2.1%     +5.2%        +1.7%
March       -1.5%       +2.5%       +2.3%        +1.9%     +5.2%        +1.8%
April         -0.6%       +2.4%        +2.2%       +1.7%     +5.2%        +1.8%
May          -0.6%       +2.3%        +2.1%       +1.4%     +5.2%        +1.8%
June         -1.5%       +2.1%        +2.0%       +1.2%     +5.3%        +1.8%
July          -2.5%       +1.3%        +1.3%       +0.7%     +5.2%        +1.8%
Aug          -2.7%       +0.9%        +1.1%       +0.5%     +5.2%        +1.7%
Sept         -3.0%       +0.3%        +0.9%       -0.2%      +5.1%        +1.5%
Oct           -3.0%       -0.1%         +0.5%       -0.4%      +4.9%        +1.4%
Nov          -3.0%       -0.1%         +0.5%       -0.7%      +4.9%        +1.3%
Dec          -2.7%       -0.1%         +0.3%       -1.0%      +4.8%        +1.3%
Jan           -2.9%        0.0%         +0.5%       -0.9%      +5.1%        +1.3%
Feb          -2.5%       +0.4%        +0.8%       -0.7%      +5.2%        +1.2%
Mar          -1.7%       +0.5%        +1.0%       -0.5%      +5.3%        +1.1%
April         -1.3%       +0.6%        +1.1%       -0.2%      +5.6%        +1.0%
May         -0.6%        +0.6%        +1.1%       +0.1%     +5.6%        +1.0%
June        +0.4%       +0.6%        +1.3%       +0.2%     +5.5%        +1.2%
July         +0.6%       +0.5%        +1.5%       +0.2%     +5.3%        +1.3%
Aug         +0.9%       +0.6%        +1.9%       +0.2%     +5.1%        +1.6%
Sept        +2.0%       +0.6%        +2.0%       +0.4%     +5.1%        +1.8%
Oct          +2.1%       +0.5%        +2.1%       +0.4%     +5.2%        +1.8%
Nov         +2.3%       +0.5%        +2.3%       +0.4%     +5.2%        +1.7%
Dec         +3.0%       +0.5%        +2.4%       +0.4%     +5.2%        +1.8%
Jan          +3.1%       +0.5%       +2.5%        +0.4%     +5.2%        +2.0%

2022 CPI growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +7.1%       +3.8%       +5.0%      +5.3%       +2.1%         +0.9%
March    +20.0%       +5.2%       +6.1%      +6.3%      +2.2%          +1.3%
April      +21.3%       +6.4%       +6.9%      +7.1%      +2.2%          +1.5%
May       +17.2%       +6.7%       +7.1%      +7.5%      +2.2%          +1.7%
June      +15.7%       +7.0%       +7.5%      +8.1%      +2.2%          +1.9%
July       +14.6%       +7.5%       +7.9%      +8.5%      +2.3%          +2.0%
Aug       +14.2%       +7.9%       +8.1%      +9.0%      +2.3%          +2.0%
Sept      +14.0%       +8.2%       +8.0%      +9.2%      +2.3%          +2.1%
Oct        +13.9%       +8.2%       +8.0%      +9.0%      +2.2%          +2.2%
Nov       +13.8%       +8.5%       +8.1%      +9.0%      +2.2%          +2.3%
Dec       +13.8%       +8.5%       +8.0%      +9.1%      +2.1%          +2.4%
Jan        +13.8%       +8.4%       +8.0%      +9.1%      +2.0%          +2.5%
Feb       +13.8%       +8.4%        +8.0%      +9.1%      +2.0%          +2.5%
Mar       +13.8%       +8.4%        +8.0%      +9.1%      +2.0%          +2.5%
April      +13.8%       +8.4%        +8.0%      +9.1%      +2.0%         +2.5%
May      +13.8%       +8.4%        +8.0%      +9.1%       +2.0%          +2.5%
****************************   Data pretty much locked in ***********************

USA Russia and Japan all got upgrades from Dec numbers.

Once you take into account that 2021 UK GDP growth got marked down by 0.6% and 2021 Russia GDP growth got marked up by 0.9% one can then construct a total cumulative 2022-2023 GDP loss based on current consensus/result vs. 2022 Feb consensus as a percentage of 2021 GDP

(change from Dec 2023 calculation)
Russia      -3.0% (+0.1%)
Eurozone  -2.7% (----)
USA         -1.9% (+0.1%)
UK           -2.3% (----)
PRC          -2.1% (----)
Japan       -1.5% (+0.2%)

At this stage, the impact on the economy of Russia is pretty similar to the Eurozone while the other key economic players have a similar impact on each other at a lower level.  All in all, Russia is taking an economic hit from the war but managed to impose a similar size hit from a percentage point of view on the collective West.

[jaichind]

Scholz complains about the exorbitant financial burden due to Ukraine in a speech at the SPD party conference. He says that other EU countries should provide more assistance to Ukraine since Germany alone is not able to bear such a large burden.

[Open Source Intelligence]

Scholz complains about the exorbitant financial burden due to Ukraine in a speech at the SPD party conference. He says that other EU countries should provide more assistance to Ukraine since Germany alone is not able to bear such a large burden.

Pretty Trumpish of him if true. Not sure how it breaks down but the Germans have not been the only country in the EU providing everything. Meanwhile, it's its largest economy.

[jaichind]

https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/europa/ukraine-betrug-waffenbeschaffung-100.html

"Ukraine uncovers arms procurement fraud"

German media reports that Ukraine's SBU has uncovered procurement fraud in mortar shells.

It seems the person behind this fraud is Yuriy Zbitnev who in 2014 was one of the leading figures of 2014 Maidan in the Kiev City council.  He is now under arrest by SBU for this scam.

[BG-NY]

Thought this was pretty cool:

Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky has promised that in 2024 the country’s military will have a million drones. His nation already deploys hundreds of thousands of small drones, but this is a major change – a transition to a military with more drones than soldiers. What does that mean for the future of war?

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2413260-what-does-ukraines-million-drone-army-mean-for-the-future-of-war/

[Storr]

"The massive Power of Siberia-2 pipeline to China that Russia hopes will replace the European gas export market is delayed, ⁦@thomas_m_wilson reports. China doesn’t need the gas as much and Russia is desperate, cementing its little brother role"

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1751509447275319357?s=20

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-25/russia-sees-its-natural-gas-exports-recovering-on-higher-shipments-to-china

"Russia Sees Its Natural Gas Exports Recovering on Higher Shipments to China"

Russia expects its pipeline gas exports to recover by almost a fifth this year, partially offsetting the loss of most of its European customers through higher shipments to China. 

Gas shipments via pipelines to foreign markets will reach 108 billion cubic meters this year, up from 91.4 billion cubic meters in 2023, as the Power of Siberia link to China gradually reaches its nameplate capacity, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak wrote in Energy Policy magazine on Thursday.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-28/china-s-engineers-are-keeping-russia-s-metal-furnaces-firing?embedded-checkout=true

"Chinese Engineers Are Keeping Russia’s Metal Furnaces Firing"

“For Russia, Chinese equipment supply is a necessity now, as there is no alternative,” said Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. “China has a broad range of equipment. Most of the time it is not worse than other offerings and sometimes it is quite innovative.”

To be fair the Chinese on ROC is doing similar stuff

https://news.yahoo.com/investigation-russia-imports-taiwanese-metalworking-164630126.html

"Investigation: Russia imports Taiwanese metalworking equipment despite sanctions"

Remember, for Chinese on PRC and ROC it is all about "show me the money"

[jaichind]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/01/29/ukraine-victory-russia-defeat-hopes/

"Ukraine's hopes for victory over Russia are slipping away"



Wait, I thought by not completely conquering Ukraine Russia already lost?

Anyway my definition of win/loss would be

a) If Russia gets enough Ukraine territory to severely weaken it (complete conquest of all 4 Ukraine Oblasts plus Kharkov or Odessa) AND Ukraine's Constitutional promises not to join NATO then it is a Russian victory

b) If Russia only gets one of the two in a) then it is a draw

c) If Russia gets neither of a) and freezes the conflict in place of something like the current frontlines then it is a minor Russia setback

d) If Russia loses ground from here then it is a Russian defeat

In that sense I think the Washington Post article is "correct" in that a Russia defeat (option d) does now seem less and less likely although I do not see why Ukraine cannot be able to fight to get b) or c)

[jaichind]

https://www.ft.com/content/9dabcd4b-9c64-4124-9f9c-b0c898c84c8f?segmentid=dcee0941-6e02-a9de-5643-b340f3ef2e3a

"Brussels threatens to hit Hungary’s economy if Viktor Orbán vetoes Ukraine aid"



This must be part of that rule-based world order that Biden and Blinken were talking about

Again, why jump through all these hoops?  Germany, France, Italy etc etc can just write a check from their own national budget to Ukraine and just move on.  Why bother with all this stuff with Orban?

[jaichind]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/nato-russia-missile-strikes-europe-germany-vbwt2dktt

"Nato should ‘prepare for Russian missile strikes in Europe’"



Wait, I thought Russia was already defeated and out of missiles anyway

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/nato-russia-missile-strikes-europe-germany-vbwt2dktt

"Nato should ‘prepare for Russian missile strikes in Europe’"



Wait, I thought Russia was already defeated and out of missiles anyway

They aren't. Some got overly optimistic about it, though.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-28/china-s-engineers-are-keeping-russia-s-metal-furnaces-firing?embedded-checkout=true

"Chinese Engineers Are Keeping Russia’s Metal Furnaces Firing"

“For Russia, Chinese equipment supply is a necessity now, as there is no alternative,” said Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. “China has a broad range of equipment. Most of the time it is not worse than other offerings and sometimes it is quite innovative.”

To be fair the Chinese on ROC is doing similar stuff

https://news.yahoo.com/investigation-russia-imports-taiwanese-metalworking-164630126.html

"Investigation: Russia imports Taiwanese metalworking equipment despite sanctions"

Remember, for Chinese on PRC and ROC it is all about "show me the money"

Well, it seems this is good business for Taiwanese firms. PRC cheats sanctions, but ROC can play that game too.