Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/polish-farmers-plan-general-strike-blockade-ukraine-border-2024-02-02/

"Polish farmers plan general strike, blockade of Ukraine border"

It's 2023 again!

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/euromaidanpress/status/1753764409174786528?s=12
Lol been seeing this all over tg and had to share

[jaichind]

It seems Tucker Carlson is now in Moscow.  I wonder if he will interview Putin.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-03/house-to-vote-on-israel-aid-bill-without-ukraine-funds-next-week

"House to Vote on Israel Aid Without Ukraine Funds Next Week"

[jaichind]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/02/02/russian-artillery-gunners-are-getting-cocky-as-ukraine-runs-out-of-ammo-russian-guns-gather-for-devastating-salvos/?sh=186554e16eb3

"Russian Artillery Gunners Are Getting Cocky. As Ukraine Runs Out Of Ammo, Russian Guns Gather For Devastating Salvos."

[jaichind]

[Storr]

It seems Tucker Carlson is now in Moscow.  I wonder if he will interview Putin.

Despite personally feeling it's very likely Carlson is in Moscow for journalistic endeavors, such as interviewing Putin, admittedly this speculation is intriguing:

"I suppose we shouldn’t be surprised if Carlson is playing some kind of MAGA negotiation role. Officials in Kyiv think Trump is trying to work a deal with Moscow independently & they link the hold up in aid to this."

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1753890525747294386?s=20

[Frodo]

It seems Tucker Carlson is now in Moscow.  I wonder if he will interview Putin.

Despite personally feeling it's very likely Carlson is in Moscow for journalistic endeavors, such as interviewing Putin, admittedly this speculation is intriguing:

"I suppose we shouldn’t be surprised if Carlson is playing some kind of MAGA negotiation role. Officials in Kyiv think Trump is trying to work a deal with Moscow independently & they link the hold up in aid to this."

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1753890525747294386?s=20

Nixon paved the way in 1968 when he scuttled peace talks between the United States and North Vietnam to enable his election bid -and didn't suffer any consequences for it.  So naturally Trump and Tucker Carlson thought they'd do the same vis-a-vis Ukraine by endangering its war effort to aid Trump's presidential bid.  

[CumbrianLefty]

It seems Tucker Carlson is now in Moscow.  I wonder if he will interview Putin.

Despite personally feeling it's very likely Carlson is in Moscow for journalistic endeavors, such as interviewing Putin, admittedly this speculation is intriguing:

"I suppose we shouldn’t be surprised if Carlson is playing some kind of MAGA negotiation role. Officials in Kyiv think Trump is trying to work a deal with Moscow independently & they link the hold up in aid to this."

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1753890525747294386?s=20

Nixon paved the way in 1968 when he scuttled peace talks between the United States and North Vietnam to enable his election bid -and didn't suffer any consequences for it.  So naturally Trump and Tucker Carlson thought they'd do the same vis-a-vis Ukraine by endangering its war effort to aid Trump's presidential bid.  

Mainly because hardly anybody was aware of it, tbh.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

It seems Tucker Carlson is now in Moscow.  I wonder if he will interview Putin.

Despite personally feeling it's very likely Carlson is in Moscow for journalistic endeavors, such as interviewing Putin, admittedly this speculation is intriguing:

"I suppose we shouldn’t be surprised if Carlson is playing some kind of MAGA negotiation role. Officials in Kyiv think Trump is trying to work a deal with Moscow independently & they link the hold up in aid to this."

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1753890525747294386?s=20

Nixon paved the way in 1968 when he scuttled peace talks between the United States and North Vietnam to enable his election bid -and didn't suffer any consequences for it.  So naturally Trump and Tucker Carlson thought they'd do the same vis-a-vis Ukraine by endangering its war effort to aid Trump's presidential bid.  

Mainly because hardly anybody was aware of it, tbh.

Hardly anyone besides HHH and LBJ.

[jaichind]

https://www.politika.rs/scc/clanak/597407/Zelenski-bez-kompasa

"Zelensky without a compass"



Serbian newspaper Politika says that Zelensky is planning to pin the shooting down of the Il-76 with Ukraine POWs on Zaluzhny

[oldtimer]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/02/02/russian-artillery-gunners-are-getting-cocky-as-ukraine-runs-out-of-ammo-russian-guns-gather-for-devastating-salvos/?sh=186554e16eb3

"Russian Artillery Gunners Are Getting Cocky. As Ukraine Runs Out Of Ammo, Russian Guns Gather For Devastating Salvos."

I consider all that as clickbait.

If any of that where true where are the russian advances ?

It's all "Ukraine weak, Russia strong" garbage.

[jaichind]

https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/03/europe/ukrainian-soldiers-defense-mode-zaluzhnyi-intl-hnk/index.html

"Ukraine’s soldiers ‘in deep defense mode’ as uncertainty lingers over commander-in-chief"

It has been almost 48 hours since Zelensky told the White House that Zaluzhny will be out as per the Washington Post.  But no signs of any formal announcement of this and who the replacement is.  The longer this lasts the weaker Zelensky looks.  If I were Zelensy I would announce Zaluzhny being out ASAP. Even if a bunch of pro-Zaluzhny officers resigns it is unacceptable for this type of situation to go on.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Russia is now trying to storm Avdiivka head-on, after failing to outflank it via Stepove. Tough fights ahead and the next few days will decide Avdiivka’s fate 🫡

[jaichind]

https://www.socialeurope.eu/ukraine-war-corruption-and-politico-military-tensions

"Ukraine war: corruption and politico-military tensions"

Taken together, the corruption scandal and the reported rift at the top of Ukraine’s power structure will do nothing to restore or sustain western confidence about whether Ukraine has a credible pathway to avoiding defeat, let alone to achieving victory. Without such confidence, more aid looks increasingly doubtful.

The blame game continues as collective West media try to shift the blame to any setback on Ukraine/Zelensky.

[jaichind]

https://www.lefigaro.fr/international/en-ukraine-l-union-sacree-se-fissure-sur-tous-les-fronts-le-recit-de-l-envoye-special-du-figaro-20240201

"In Ukraine, the sacred union is cracking on all fronts: the story of the special correspondent of Le Figaro"

REPORT - Soldiers are worried about insufficient support from the allies and the unrealistic objectives of the general staff. The opposition denounces an authoritarian drift.

More blame game articles from the collective West MSM

[jaichind]

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/04/world/europe/ukraine-defense-east.html

"‘They Come in Waves’: Ukraine Goes on Defense Against a Relentless Foe"

As the war enters its third year, Ukrainians find themselves outmanned and outgunned. After dominating the fighting in the first year and battling mostly to a standstill in the second, they have relinquished the momentum to Russia. Now they are digging in and fighting to hold on.

[Storr]

Russia is now trying to storm Avdiivka head-on, after failing to outflank it via Stepove. Tough fights ahead and the next few days will decide Avdiivka’s fate 🫡

"After gaining a foothold in the south two weeks ago, Russian forces have advanced and entered Avdiivka from the north over the past few days. Butusov and Tsaplienko both say the situation is critical."

"Butusov mentions the lack of ammunition and fresh reserves/infantry to rotate with the 110th Mechanized Brigade as key problems."

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1754274492983976242?s=20

[bilaps]

Russia is now trying to storm Avdiivka head-on, after failing to outflank it via Stepove. Tough fights ahead and the next few days will decide Avdiivka’s fate 🫡

Lol, Avdeevka is gone for Ukraine since the breakthrough from Krasnogorovka and crossing the railway line there. It will take time but really there's no doubt it will fall eventually.

[jaichind]

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/05/world/europe/zelensky-ukraine-war.html

"Zelensky Hints at Major Shake-Up of Ukraine’s Government"

The president said a “reset” was needed to revive the struggling war effort, adding that his plans were “about the direction of the country’s leadership” and not just about replacing his top general.
President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine said that a broad overhaul of the country’s military and civilian leadership was needed to reboot the war effort against Russia, suggesting that a major shake-up of his government was imminent.

Ok, so a purge is coming?  If so telling the media about it ahead of time sounds like a bad idea as it gives people who are going to be purged time to try to stop or mitigate it.  If there is going to be a big shakeup, then just do it instead of talking about it.  The worst outcome is to talk about it followed by nothing.  That will make Zelensky look very weak.

[jaichind]

https://www.barrons.com/news/georgia-says-foiled-ukrainian-plot-to-smuggle-explosives-to-russia-d3ff9214

"Georgia says foiled Ukrainian plot to smuggle explosives to Russia"

Six devices were "brought to Georgia on January 19 from the Ukrainian city of Odessa, via Romania, Bulgaria, and Turkey, on a minivan belonging to a Ukrainian national," the Georgian security service said.

That sounds like almost the same route as the cab bomb that attacked the October 2022 Crimean Bridge attack.

There are several million Ukrainians who escaped to Russia after the start of the war.  Some number of them must be SBU agents.

[Storr]

"The mayor of Kyiv [Vitaly Klitschko] is speaking out in defense of General Zaluzhny, warning that (Zelensky's) political intrigues jeopardize "common sense" and "the state's interests." He credits Zaluzhny with building the public's confidence in Ukraine's armed forces."

"Unfortunately, today is the moment when politics can override common sense and the interests of the state. And this moment does not depend on Zaluzhny."

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1754496923271110706?s=20

[jaichind]

"The mayor of Kyiv [Vitaly Klitschko] is speaking out in defense of General Zaluzhny, warning that (Zelensky's) political intrigues jeopardize "common sense" and "the state's interests." He credits Zaluzhny with building the public's confidence in Ukraine's armed forces."

"Unfortunately, today is the moment when politics can override common sense and the interests of the state. And this moment does not depend on Zaluzhny."
 

Of course he is going to  say that.  Right now the main "opposition" to Zelensky is really the Poroshenko-Zaluzhny-Klitschko alliance.

[jaichind]

Pro-Russian sources report more progress in Avdiivka with fighting entering into the city itself and getting closer to cutting off supply lines into the city for AFU.

[Storr]

The one recent positive for Ukraine has been bringing exports back to nearly pre-Februrary 2022 levels due to neutralizing the Russian Black Sea Fleet's ability to blockade shipping by sea.

"Ukraine exports hit 12 million tonnes in January! Notably, 8.7M tonnes of Ukrainian cargo moved by sea. It's worth noting that pre-war volumes, recorded in January 2022, stood at 14 million tonnes."
 - First Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko

https://twitter.com/Svyrydenko_Y/status/1754495807829537060?s=20