Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

[jaichind]

https://www.thedailybeast.com/ukrainian-defector-ilya-kiva-found-dead-and-bloodied-in-moscow

"Ukrainian Defector Found Dead and ‘Bloodied’ Outside Moscow"

[RilakkuMAGA]

There is a majority in Congress for continued Ukraine aid. It will take a lot of screaming and performative handwringing but it will eventually pass. The only question is when and at what cost.

That's why Republicans know they can demand anything they want in exchange. Democrats care more about Kiev than any American issue.

[Associate Justice PiT]

There is a majority in Congress for continued Ukraine aid. It will take a lot of screaming and performative handwringing but it will eventually pass. The only question is when and at what cost.

That's why Republicans know they can demand anything they want in exchange. Democrats care more about Kiev than any American issue.

     It also helps the GOP that American support for further Ukraine funding is cooling. It's not like Democrats can complain about the holdup to the public and expect to find a very receptive audience there. If America falls from grace as a superpower, I expect to see historians draw comparisons between us today and Athens c.400 BC, where changing tides of public opinion led them to abandon previous military commitments and lose key allies.

[jaichind]

There is a majority in Congress for continued Ukraine aid. It will take a lot of screaming and performative handwringing but it will eventually pass. The only question is when and at what cost.

That's why Republicans know they can demand anything they want in exchange. Democrats care more about Kiev than any American issue.

This is mostly the Senate GOP getting the maximum level of concessions to try to convince the hardline House GOP to go along with some level of Ukraine aid

[jaichind]

https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2023-12-06/biden-help-ukraine-now-or-send-americans-to-fight-russia-with-nato-later

"Biden: Help Ukraine Now or Send Americans to Fight Russia With NATO Later"

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-latest-weapons-request-includes-thaad-air-defenses-f-18s-2023-12-06/

"Ukraine's latest weapons request includes THAAD air defenses and F-18s"

kraine's latest list of U.S. weapons it says it needs to fight the Russian military includes sophisticated air defense systems, F-18 "Hornet" fighter jets, drones, Apache and Blackhawk helicopters, according to documents seen by Reuters.

Ukraine forgot to ask for Deathstar.

[jaichind]

https://www.thedailybeast.com/ukrainian-defector-ilya-kiva-found-dead-and-bloodied-in-moscow

"Ukrainian Defector Found Dead and ‘Bloodied’ Outside Moscow"

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/25132

"SBU Liquidates Well-Known Pro-Russian Politician From Ukraine Illia Kyva"

Looks like Ukraine claims responsibility for the assassination

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.thedailybeast.com/ukrainian-defector-ilya-kiva-found-dead-and-bloodied-in-moscow

"Ukrainian Defector Found Dead and ‘Bloodied’ Outside Moscow"

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/25132

"SBU Liquidates Well-Known Pro-Russian Politician From Ukraine Illia Kyva"

Looks like Ukraine claims responsibility for the assassination

They aren't messing around...

[jaichind]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2023/12/07/senate-republicans-block-aid-to-ukraine-call-for-more-border-security-measures/71836083007/

"Is Biden's Ukraine aid package in jeopardy? GOP senators vote to block it"

The procedure vote fails 49-51.

Too bad Bernie Madoff has passed away because it should be time to bring him into the Pentagon to figure out more accounting errors to route money to Ukraine.

[Associate Justice PiT]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2023/12/07/senate-republicans-block-aid-to-ukraine-call-for-more-border-security-measures/71836083007/

"Is Biden's Ukraine aid package in jeopardy? GOP senators vote to block it"

The procedure vote fails 49-51.

Too bad Bernie Madoff has passed away because it should be time to bring him into the Pentagon to figure out more accounting errors to route money to Ukraine.

     Fascinating that Sanders sided with the GOP in a party-line vote. I didn't have that one on my bingo card.

[Edu]

https://twitter.com/lanacionmas/status/1732768008756478412?s=20


So, any theories why he's doing this? Trying to get more active support from countries in the region? trying to stick it to Lula? Meet with Viktor Orban in neutral grounds for some reason? Maybe he likes Milei anti-Russia/China - pro USA/Israel stance?

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/lanacionmas/status/1732768008756478412?s=20


So, any theories why he's doing this? Trying to get more active support from countries in the region? trying to stick it to Lula? Meet with Viktor Orban in neutral grounds for some reason? Maybe he likes Milei anti-Russia/China - pro USA/Israel stance?

If I had to guess, it would be mix of trying to get more active support from Latin American countries and Milei's anti-Russia/China - pro US/Israel stance.

[jaichind]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2023/12/07/senate-republicans-block-aid-to-ukraine-call-for-more-border-security-measures/71836083007/

"Is Biden's Ukraine aid package in jeopardy? GOP senators vote to block it"

The procedure vote fails 49-51.

Too bad Bernie Madoff has passed away because it should be time to bring him into the Pentagon to figure out more accounting errors to route money to Ukraine.

     Fascinating that Sanders sided with the GOP in a party-line vote. I didn't have that one on my bingo card.

He objected to the Israel part of the package.  He wanted to make the aid to Israel contingent on the way Israel conducts the war versus no strings attached.

[jaichind]

One risk to Ukraine is a Ukraine political stability - Ukraine aid delay doom loop.

The basic idea is that the main function of Zelensky in the Ukraine political system is to put on a dog and pony show for the collective West to get money to pour into the system.  When that money starts to dry up, Zenelsky's political enemies get more active and the Ukraine's political system becomes more unstable.  This in turn makes it easier for the GOP to delay or block Ukraine's aid which in turn triggers greater instability in the Ukraine political system and so on and so on.

I suspect once the Ukraine aid package gets passed this doom loop would stop but could start again once this batch of money runs out.

[Associate Justice PiT]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2023/12/07/senate-republicans-block-aid-to-ukraine-call-for-more-border-security-measures/71836083007/

"Is Biden's Ukraine aid package in jeopardy? GOP senators vote to block it"

The procedure vote fails 49-51.

Too bad Bernie Madoff has passed away because it should be time to bring him into the Pentagon to figure out more accounting errors to route money to Ukraine.

     Fascinating that Sanders sided with the GOP in a party-line vote. I didn't have that one on my bingo card.

He objected to the Israel part of the package.  He wanted to make the aid to Israel contingent on the way Israel conducts the war versus no strings attached.

     I did see his rationale, but he seems like a de facto Dem most of the time. It surprised me to see him go against the unanimous position of Senate Democrats. Interesting that there isn't more anger at him causing this vote to fail, as the comments I have seen have blamed Republicans without mentioning Sanders's decisive vote.

[jaichind]

     I did see his rationale, but he seems like a de facto Dem most of the time. It surprised me to see him go against the unanimous position of Senate Democrats. Interesting that there isn't more anger at him causing this vote to fail, as the comments I have seen have blamed Republicans without mentioning Sanders's decisive vote.

Just to be fair for this vote to pass it has to clear 60 so Sanders did not play a decisive role one way or another.  For this to pass you need the Senate GOP to come on board.

[Woody]

Will Zaluzhny be fired in the near future? Is there a realistic chance he will become president while the war is ongoing?

[Badger]

As much as I would like to see it happen, I don't see any evidence the war will end that fast, even if US aid went to 0. Europe would make up for a lot of it (white nationalist solidarity) and Ukraine has a lot of space to trade for time - and clearly defensible territory they can fall back to.

I generally agree.  Through hook or crook the collective West will get some money into Ukraine in 2024.  While the ammo shortage is getting worse for Ukraine the good news is that Ukraine 2024 will be fighting a defensive war.  The prestige of the Zelensky government has taken a hit but it is still high enough to push further rounds of mobilization to continue a defensive war in 2024.

Oh, don't sell yourselves short. Final victory for Russia is right around the corner. In fact, you should both enlist in Putin's army as soon as possible to share in the triumph. Eastern Ukraine could always use more fertilizer patriotic soldiers!

Jaichind and the other dude are keyboard cowards, stanning for war crimes and mass rapists.if

[Red Velvet]

In an authoritarian and anti-democratic attitude, Volodymyr Zelensky, president of Ukraine, bans the main opposition leader from traveling outside the country.

The purpose of Petro Poroshenko's trip was to seek support for more military aid to Ukraine.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

In an authoritarian and anti-democratic attitude, Volodymyr Zelensky, president of Ukraine, bans the main opposition leader from traveling outside the country.

The purpose of Petro Poroshenko's trip was to seek support for more military aid to Ukraine.

They aren't letting men under 60 leave, and Poroshenko is 58.

[jaichind]

In an authoritarian and anti-democratic attitude, Volodymyr Zelensky, president of Ukraine, bans the main opposition leader from traveling outside the country.

The purpose of Petro Poroshenko's trip was to seek support for more military aid to Ukraine.

In theory.  But Poroshenko was going to meet Orban whom Zelensky has good reason to believe that the purpose of the meeting is to delay Ukraine aid to weaken Zelensky and pave the way for some sort of political comeback of Poroshenko.  I am not saying this is true but I think Zelensky had good reason to believe it could be true.

[bilaps]

Will Zaluzhny be fired in the near future? Is there a realistic chance he will become president while the war is ongoing?

He won't be fired. Americans are protecting him for the moment. He could be next president, just not yet. Zelensky is still popular but he's the American alternative.

[jaichind]

Putin to run for re-election in 2024 elections

[jaichind]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/12/08/ukraine-russia-war-draft-dodgers/

"Ukraine cracks down on draft-dodging as it struggles to find troops"