Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Florida Man for Crime]

this is a german press narrativf

Overall, the press in Germany is almost as bad as ours.

Lügenpresse?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/11/28/alternate-reality-how-russian-society-learned-to-stop-worrying-about-war-pub-91118
Interesting article on the issue of Russian public opinion.

[bilaps]

Lol there is no objective reason to believe Russians are capable of reaching Dnepr river, yet alone attacking the rest of Europe and Nato countries. Pure fear mongering for people who rely on Morning Joe for news.

You are entirely correct that the Russians are not capable of ever reaching the "Dnepr" river, because there is no such river with that name in existence.

However, the front line has run right along the banks of the Dnipro river all the way from Kherson to Zaporizhzhia for more than a year at this point. So Russians are certainly capable of reaching that, given that they already did and have been there for a long time.

You know very well what I mean. And you know very well how majority of Ukraine pronounces places.

[jaichind]

https://www.ft.com/content/6cd69168-aef4-4c8c-950c-62d7465fe5bb

"EU budget dispute threatens €50bn war lifeline for Ukraine"

"Bloc’s leaders embroiled in financial row that risks leaving Kyiv empty-handed at crucial moment in conflict"

[jaichind]

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-poroshenko-orban-meeting-zaporizhzhia-a1c84944dcd18b01ad445da32294e95f

"Ex-president barred from leaving Ukraine amid alleged plan to meet with Hungary’s Viktor Orban"

It seems that Poroshenko can now be counted as someone in open opposition to Zelensky. 

[Storr]

"Two days after Putin orders the expansion of Russia's army size by 170k soldiers, the Defense Ministry proposes changes to the rules guiding medical exams of men with "diseases that don't affect their ability to serve."

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1731382306147860678?s=20

[jaichind]

https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2023/12/4/7431535/



Ukraine media says that Zelensky just bypasses Zaluzhny when it comes to giving orders to the armed forces.  If this is the state of affairs I wonder why Zelensky just not fire Zaluzhny?  My theory is that doing so would give the USA GOP an excuse to not pass funding for Ukraine.  So getting rid of Zaluzhny will have to wait until the USA GOP in the House passes funding for Ukraine.

[Woody]

https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2023/12/4/7431535/

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GAhItBiWUAIzjxe?format=jpg&name=small

Ukraine media says that Zelensky just bypasses Zaluzhny when it comes to giving orders to the armed forces.  If this is the state of affairs I wonder why Zelensky just not fire Zaluzhny?  My theory is that doing so would give the USA GOP an excuse to not pass funding for Ukraine.  So getting rid of Zaluzhny will have to wait until the USA GOP in the House passes funding for Ukraine.

Because he's afraid of making him a political martyr. Zelensky's team fear going up against him were he to run for president.

[jaichind]

https://www.ft.com/content/b42c62f7-57e6-4899-affe-a376cc568d3d

"America and a crumbling global order"

The foreign crises could come to a head quite fast. “The next three months could determine the next few years,” is how one senior US official puts it. A prominent Democrat worries that “by January, we could be talking about how Joe Biden lost Ukraine”.

[jaichind]

https://www.bild.de/bild-plus/politik/ausland/politik-ausland/immer-mehr-neue-waffen-und-technik-unterschaetzen-wir-die-russen-86245824.bild.html

"Are we underestimating the Russians?"



Bild admits that it was always nonsense when people wrote about "the Russians have two days left of missiles".

"Kremlin's army does not seem to lack supplies of equipment and weapons to the east and south of Ukraine."

 "The Russians have four times as many kamikaze drones as we do," said one soldier.

[Open Source Intelligence]

https://www.ft.com/content/b42c62f7-57e6-4899-affe-a376cc568d3d

"America and a crumbling global order"

The foreign crises could come to a head quite fast. “The next three months could determine the next few years,” is how one senior US official puts it. A prominent Democrat worries that “by January, we could be talking about how Joe Biden lost Ukraine”.

This was not Joe Biden's war to lose. Never was.

From the article:

There is some resentment in Washington that Israel is insisting it will make its own decisions about military operations, while relying on US muscle in the background. “The Israelis are playing with house money,” as one US official puts it. But, after October 7, there remains a deep reluctance to put serious pressure on Israel to change course.

Yeah, now think of every other country in the world you gave your muscle to. Even ones we have moral compunctions about.

[bilaps]

Not looking good for Ukrainians around Bakhmut

https://twitter.com/Pouletvolant3/status/1732018316045132281

[Red Velvet]

https://www.ft.com/content/b42c62f7-57e6-4899-affe-a376cc568d3d

"America and a crumbling global order"

The foreign crises could come to a head quite fast. “The next three months could determine the next few years,” is how one senior US official puts it. A prominent Democrat worries that “by January, we could be talking about how Joe Biden lost Ukraine”.

All this anxiety from US is for nothing since most of these conflicts aren’t related to them, especially Ukraine - which will be the first they will abandon as it’s the one with literal no economic or geopolitical realist argument to be so deeply involved in.

Israel is US entrance door to Middle East in thousand of different ways. Taiwan is economically strategic and counterweight to their main economic rival. Guyana is near to them, rich in oil and under threat of the biggest hostile power to US in the Americas these days.

The Ukraine situation simply doesn’t matter to the United States in any pragmatic sense people can create, it’s an European problem. I still don’t understand why people in US government like opposing Russia on that matter so much when it only creates problems for them. Russia being forced into being BFFs with China isn’t good development for them and it triggered many of other chaotic elements throughout the world.

I remember reading Trump secretary of state, Pompeo, talking before the war started how BRICS was dead because the B and the I had been convinced that the R and the C were threats to them and besides laughing at the simplistic and incorrect reading of the situation, I could NOT understand why he was lumping the R and the C automatically together.

Like, this was when Trump was in power so BEFORE the Ukraine War you had all these major US officials openly treating Russia as a main enemy or threat that was put in the same level as freaking China. When Russia has been basically mostly irrelevant since the USSR fall. These dumb idiots have been harshly pushing Russia into the arms of China FOR NOTHING over three decades now.

When Russia and China have no real cultural connection between themselves. Russia is by default an EUROPEAN country while China is an EAST ASIAN one. Russia would love to keep ties with Europe over literally anywhere but because they’re blacklisted for not being liberal enough they’re basically forced into the giant “Global-South” blob.

This existed before the Ukraine War so I never understood why there is so much irrational hate for Russia inside the US?

[jaichind]

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2023/dec/5/were-united-gop-senators-say-no-ukraine-money-with/

"‘We’re united’: GOP senators say no Ukraine money without major border changes"

[RilakkuMAGA]

https://www.ft.com/content/b42c62f7-57e6-4899-affe-a376cc568d3d

"America and a crumbling global order"

The foreign crises could come to a head quite fast. “The next three months could determine the next few years,” is how one senior US official puts it. A prominent Democrat worries that “by January, we could be talking about how Joe Biden lost Ukraine”.

As much as I would like to see it happen, I don't see any evidence the war will end that fast, even if US aid went to 0. Europe would make up for a lot of it (white nationalist solidarity) and Ukraine has a lot of space to trade for time - and clearly defensible territory they can fall back to.

[jaichind]

As much as I would like to see it happen, I don't see any evidence the war will end that fast, even if US aid went to 0. Europe would make up for a lot of it (white nationalist solidarity) and Ukraine has a lot of space to trade for time - and clearly defensible territory they can fall back to.

I generally agree.  Through hook or crook the collective West will get some money into Ukraine in 2024.  While the ammo shortage is getting worse for Ukraine the good news is that Ukraine 2024 will be fighting a defensive war.  The prestige of the Zelensky government has taken a hit but it is still high enough to push further rounds of mobilization to continue a defensive war in 2024.

[John Dule]

As much as I would like to see it happen, I don't see any evidence the war will end that fast, even if US aid went to 0. Europe would make up for a lot of it (white nationalist solidarity) and Ukraine has a lot of space to trade for time - and clearly defensible territory they can fall back to.

I generally agree.  Through hook or crook the collective West will get some money into Ukraine in 2024.  While the ammo shortage is getting worse for Ukraine the good news is that Ukraine 2024 will be fighting a defensive war.  The prestige of the Zelensky government has taken a hit but it is still high enough to push further rounds of mobilization to continue a defensive war in 2024.

Oh, don't sell yourselves short. Final victory for Russia is right around the corner. In fact, you should both enlist in Putin's army as soon as possible to share in the triumph. Eastern Ukraine could always use more fertilizer patriotic soldiers!

[Open Source Intelligence]

https://www.ft.com/content/b42c62f7-57e6-4899-affe-a376cc568d3d

"America and a crumbling global order"

The foreign crises could come to a head quite fast. “The next three months could determine the next few years,” is how one senior US official puts it. A prominent Democrat worries that “by January, we could be talking about how Joe Biden lost Ukraine”.

As much as I would like to see it happen, I don't see any evidence the war will end that fast, even if US aid went to 0. Europe would make up for a lot of it (white nationalist solidarity) and Ukraine has a lot of space to trade for time - and clearly defensible territory they can fall back to.

If Russian forces and military cross the Dnieper en masse that's a defensive bulkhead gone and little other than plain. Both sides have dug in to their present positions and made defensive investments there. That's why I think once both sides concede this is pointless and they can't accomplish anything offensive that's your new border.

[RilakkuMAGA]

https://www.ft.com/content/b42c62f7-57e6-4899-affe-a376cc568d3d

"America and a crumbling global order"

The foreign crises could come to a head quite fast. “The next three months could determine the next few years,” is how one senior US official puts it. A prominent Democrat worries that “by January, we could be talking about how Joe Biden lost Ukraine”.

As much as I would like to see it happen, I don't see any evidence the war will end that fast, even if US aid went to 0. Europe would make up for a lot of it (white nationalist solidarity) and Ukraine has a lot of space to trade for time - and clearly defensible territory they can fall back to.

If Russian forces and military cross the Dnieper en masse that's a defensive bulkhead gone and little other than plain. Both sides have dug in to their present positions and made defensive investments there. That's why I think once both sides concede this is pointless and they can't accomplish anything offensive that's your new border.

That's a tremendously big if. Not only that, but Kiev is on that side of the river, and it presents a far more exponentially more daunting challenge than the liberation of Mariupol - which was not easy!

[Open Source Intelligence]

https://www.ft.com/content/b42c62f7-57e6-4899-affe-a376cc568d3d

"America and a crumbling global order"

The foreign crises could come to a head quite fast. “The next three months could determine the next few years,” is how one senior US official puts it. A prominent Democrat worries that “by January, we could be talking about how Joe Biden lost Ukraine”.

As much as I would like to see it happen, I don't see any evidence the war will end that fast, even if US aid went to 0. Europe would make up for a lot of it (white nationalist solidarity) and Ukraine has a lot of space to trade for time - and clearly defensible territory they can fall back to.

If Russian forces and military cross the Dnieper en masse that's a defensive bulkhead gone and little other than plain. Both sides have dug in to their present positions and made defensive investments there. That's why I think once both sides concede this is pointless and they can't accomplish anything offensive that's your new border.

That's a tremendously big if. Not only that, but Kiev is on that side of the river, and it presents a far more exponentially more daunting challenge than the liberation of Mariupol - which was not easy!

Well of course it's a big if. But look at maps, we're just about in the same position now as we were in May 2022.

[Storr]

https://www.ft.com/content/b42c62f7-57e6-4899-affe-a376cc568d3d

"America and a crumbling global order"

The foreign crises could come to a head quite fast. “The next three months could determine the next few years,” is how one senior US official puts it. A prominent Democrat worries that “by January, we could be talking about how Joe Biden lost Ukraine”.

As much as I would like to see it happen, I don't see any evidence the war will end that fast, even if US aid went to 0. Europe would make up for a lot of it (white nationalist solidarity) and Ukraine has a lot of space to trade for time - and clearly defensible territory they can fall back to.

If Russian forces and military cross the Dnieper en masse that's a defensive bulkhead gone and little other than plain. Both sides have dug in to their present positions and made defensive investments there. That's why I think once both sides concede this is pointless and they can't accomplish anything offensive that's your new border.

That's a tremendously big if. Not only that, but Kiev is on that side of the river, and it presents a far more exponentially more daunting challenge than the liberation of Mariupol - which was not easy!

Well of course it's a big if. But look at maps, we're just about in the same position now as we were in May 2022.

Yeah. There hasn't been much movement since May 2022 except for the Ukrainian offensive which safeguarded Kharkiv in September and October 2022 (by liberating Lyman, Izium, and Kupyansk) and the Russians evacuating Kherson Oblast west of the Dnipro River in November 2022. Leaving Kherson actually gave Russia a much better defensive position with the Dnipro River, as we've seen with the Ukrainian attempts to establish bridgeheads on the other side. It's clear the overall situation has stabilized since Putin's mobilization, which allowed the Russians to have more men to defend positions from offensives.

[jaichind]

https://www.rfi.fr/en/international-news/20231205-zelensky-to-appeal-to-us-senators-ahead-of-vote-on-ukraine-aid

"Zelensky cancels videolink appeal to US senate"

What is going on? This is getting chaotic. 

[Logical]

There is a majority in Congress for continued Ukraine aid. It will take a lot of screaming and performative handwringing but it will eventually pass. The only question is when and at what cost.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2023/dec/5/were-united-gop-senators-say-no-ukraine-money-with/

"‘We’re united’: GOP senators say no Ukraine money without major border changes"

I'm sure they have the country's best interests in mind. I'd ask which country, but I think it's pretty obvious.

Eight Republicans pick the worst possible place to celebrate July 4 (2018)

“What does July 4th mean to me? Freedom,” Sen. Ron Johnson chirruped on Twitter on Independence Day.

For the Wisconsin Republican, it meant, specifically, the freedom to spend July 4 in Moscow with seven other Republican lawmakers posing for propaganda photos with Russian officials. On the same day it was reported in Britain that two more people had been poisoned by a Russian nerve agent British officials say came from Vladimir Putin’s regime. On the day after the Senate Intelligence Committee affirmed the U.S. intelligence community’s conclusion that Russia interfered in the election to help Donald Trump.

So, what do we call these Red Square Republicans? My interlocutors on Twitter suggest “Moscow Mules.” Or, given the position they put themselves in before our masters in Moscow, perhaps they should be called the Prostrate Eight: Sens. Richard C. Shelby (Ala.), Steve Daines (Mont.), John Hoeven (N.D.), John Neely Kennedy (La.), Jerry Moran (Kan.), John Thune (S.D.) and Johnson, plus Rep. Kay Granger (Tex.).

Their excellent adventure included a ballet performance of “Sleeping Beauty,” and fairy-tale notions pervaded their official meetings, too. “I’m not here today to accuse Russia of this or that or so forth,” Shelby told Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin. “I’m saying that we should all strive for a better relationship.”

Shelby has since retired.

[bilaps]

There is a majority in Congress for continued Ukraine aid. It will take a lot of screaming and performative handwringing but it will eventually pass. The only question is when and at what cost.

I agree with this. I heard Chris Murphy saying the other day that he could do what republicans are doing right now, tying Ukraine aid with border security. He could push for background checks. But, here history of the world is somehow in jeopardy. If I'm a parent of one of those Sandy Hook kids slaughtered I would ask my senator what is more important than that, but Ukraine is obviously more important cause Ukraine means money for defensive contractors and American dominance in Europe to continue. While at home kids are being killed, immigrants take over sanctuary cities etc... But, that's American problem to be had in future.