Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[pppolitics]

Just so I don't get BigSerg'ed in the future, I want to unequivocally state that I think both parties are guilty of horrible crimes in this terrible joke of a war.

NATO was wrong to effect a coup in the Ukraine, and NATO is also to blame for the militarization of a country that was intended to act as a buffer state between NATO and Russia's respective spheres of influence.

Russia was wrong to invade on such a massive scale - had Russia occupied the Donbass, I'd be more inclined to argue in favor of their perspective. But Russia did not just occupy the Donbass - they went all the way into Kiev with the intent of installing a pliable regime and building a land bridge to the Crimea. So the Russians are even worse.

I do not support any active intervention or direct aid for either country. Sanctioning Russia has effectively driven China and Russia into each other's arms.

There. That is the official Sanchez position on the Ukraine. Nobody asked, but now Badger can't invent what I believe about the war and gaslight the forum about it.

Have you ever heard of self-determination?

Have you ever thought that Ukraine doesn't want to be in Russia's "sphere of influence" and that the wishes of the Ukrainian people should be respected?

[Hindsight was 2020]

The rebranding of Euromaidan as a “coup” has been one of the most successful Russian propaganda lines and one of the most frustrating considering it’s weak facts. When I think of the term “coup” an event where masses of people protesting the government over an economic policy, the government doing a failed violent crackdown that turns more people against them, the president resigning, his second in command taking over, elections being held, and then a new government taking over isn’t what comes to mind. It’s more worse is the smoking gun of this supposed “coup” is tedious stuff like Nuland or McCain saying in memos or phone calls that Euromaidan could lead to a pro-west government so we should support it. Yeah no sh*t they’d say/think that, any nation in that situation would have government officials saying this. I mean by that logic the American Revolution is a French backed coup

[bilaps]

You can spin a lot of things in the world today, but the coup is still a coup no matter how many words you put in describing it.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

One thing that is also interesting about this Yaroslav Hunka affair is we heard nothing from Zelensky.  It would make sense for Zelensky to come out and say something like:

"What Yaroslav Hunka and the 14th Waffen Grenadier Division of the SS (1st Galician) and the so-called 1st Ukrainian Division UNA do not represent Ukraine despite its self-proclaimed name.  The people of Ukraine denounce the criminal outfit which participated in atrocities.  They are no different from the war criminal Putin.  I was ashamed to be in the same room with him and I hope Canada gets to the bottom of this incident which led me to be a prop in this very shameful episode.  Once again the UNA is a criminal part of Ukrainian history and must be denounced in every way possible"

Instead, we hear nothing.

Before the war started Zelensky was fairly vocal in condemning or at least criticizing these types; he openly expressed discomfort with Bandera on several occasions (although I don't think he ever touched the third rail of Khmelnytsky, who has a whole oblast named after him). Unfortunately, he now really needs their support domestically. Or at least he seems to think he does; this is something that the West really should be pressuring him on, but instead it's something the West is ignoring or even coddling because not doing so would make Chrystia Freeland feel bad about her Nazi grandpa or something.

You can spin a lot of things in the world today, but the coup is still a coup no matter how many words you put in describing it.

[jaichind]

Before the war started Zelensky was fairly vocal in condemning or at least criticizing these types; he openly expressed discomfort with Bandera on several occasions (although I don't think he ever touched the third rail of Khmelnytsky, who has a whole oblast named after him). Unfortunately, he now really needs their support domestically. Or at least he seems to think he does; this is something that the West really should be pressuring him on, but instead it's something the West is ignoring or even coddling because not doing so would make Chrystia Freeland feel bad about her Nazi grandpa or something.

There is a trend in Ukraine that got accelerated by the war of the lived experiences of Western Ukraine (Ukraine part of Galicia) becoming superimposed to become the lived experiences of all of Ukraine.   

Take this Yaroslav Hunka affair and the SS 1st Galician division.  Everyone in that division was recruited from the Galician area which was part of Austria-Hungary and then Polan and none of them were recruited from parts of Ukraine that were part of the Russian Empire or pre-1939 USSR.   They had nothing to do with the Holodomor.  The ancestors of Ukrainians living in Kiev or Kharhav fought against the SS 1st Galician division in WWII but now the Galician experience has become the Ukraine experience.   Bandera is the national hero and Holodomor is much lower down on the list of events that might define a modern Ukraine experience.  I think this comes from a historical feeling of inadequacy which is, present in Russians as well, relative to the West and the thinking that the further West you are the more superior you are.  So the experience of Galician being part of Austria-Hungary and then Poland versus the Russian empire was viewed as superior and worthing of incorporation as THE Ukraine experience.  This is clearly related to the current move in Ukraine to try to redefine themselves as West Slavs as opposed to the East Slavs they really are.  Stories like celebrating Christmas on the Western vs. Orthodox calendar.  In that context, Zelensky's behavior is quite understandable.  In many ways that is what Putin is fighting against.  It is not about "fighting Nazis" that Putin tries to claim but a flight to keep Ukraine East Slavic and drifting away from the East and outside the Russian sphere of influence.

And yeah, before this "Nazi in Canada Parliament" fiasco there was a good chance Chrystia Freeland becoming head of NATO.  I think that is out now.

[Cassius]

The rebranding of Euromaidan as a “coup” has been one of the most successful Russian propaganda lines and one of the most frustrating considering it’s weak facts. When I think of the term “coup” an event where masses of people protesting the government over an economic policy, the government doing a failed violent crackdown that turns more people against them, the president resigning, his second in command taking over, elections being held, and then a new government taking over isn’t what comes to mind. It’s more worse is the smoking gun of this supposed “coup” is tedious stuff like Nuland or McCain saying in memos or phone calls that Euromaidan could lead to a pro-west government so we should support it. Yeah no sh*t they’d say/think that, any nation in that situation would have government officials saying this. I mean by that logic the American Revolution is a French backed coup

Yes, it was.

[Red Velvet]

The rebranding of Euromaidan as a “coup” has been one of the most successful Russian propaganda lines and one of the most frustrating considering it’s weak facts. When I think of the term “coup” an event where masses of people protesting the government over an economic policy, the government doing a failed violent crackdown that turns more people against them, the president resigning, his second in command taking over, elections being held, and then a new government taking over isn’t what comes to mind. It’s more worse is the smoking gun of this supposed “coup” is tedious stuff like Nuland or McCain saying in memos or phone calls that Euromaidan could lead to a pro-west government so we should support it. Yeah no sh*t they’d say/think that, any nation in that situation would have government officials saying this. I mean by that logic the American Revolution is a French backed coup

Yes, it was.

Which is not to say it’s a bad thing.

The only difference between a coup and a revolution is whether you think it had bad or good consequences. Both are breaks with the established order, which depending on what it was, can actually be good.

American Revolution is called revolution because it’s historically perceived as a good development. But I can see why a British person would see it as a coup backed by France since it was prejudicial for the United Kingdom.

Same thing Euromaiden. People who are pro-European are more likely to see it as a revolution while Russia will see it as a coup. Both definitions don’t exclude the presence of foreign interference to stimulate it though.

[Landslide Lyndon]

The rebranding of Euromaidan as a “coup” has been one of the most successful Russian propaganda lines and one of the most frustrating considering it’s weak facts. When I think of the term “coup” an event where masses of people protesting the government over an economic policy, the government doing a failed violent crackdown that turns more people against them, the president resigning, his second in command taking over, elections being held, and then a new government taking over isn’t what comes to mind. It’s more worse is the smoking gun of this supposed “coup” is tedious stuff like Nuland or McCain saying in memos or phone calls that Euromaidan could lead to a pro-west government so we should support it. Yeah no sh*t they’d say/think that, any nation in that situation would have government officials saying this. I mean by that logic the American Revolution is a French backed coup

Yes, it was.

Which is not to say it’s a bad thing.

The only difference between a coup and a revolution is whether you think it had bad or good consequences. Both are breaks with the established order, which depending on what it was, can actually be good.

American Revolution is called revolution because it’s historically perceived as a good development. But I can see why a British person would see it as a coup backed by France since it was prejudicial for the United Kingdom.

Same thing Euromaiden. People who are pro-European are more likely to see it as a revolution while Russia will see it as a coup. Both definitions don’t exclude the presence of foreign interference to stimulate it though.

Thanks for admitting that all Putin stooges are intellectually dishonest.

[Hindsight was 2020]

A coup has a literal definition people for the love of god. A coup is literally defined as “a sudden decisive exercise of force in politics and especially the violent overthrow or alteration of an existing government by a small group” how does that fit the definition of Euromaidan when what drove Yanukovych out of power was mass protests and a no confidence vote in parliament? Heck an alternative definition of a coup is “an illegal and overt attempt by the military or other government elites to unseat the incumbent leader by force” there’s nothing “illegal” about parliament voting for the resignation of a president because he had troops fire on civilians, with new elections immediately following. The cherry on top none of the leaders of the opposition in parliament who brought this vote out was elected afterwards so by no legitimate definition does Euromaiden meet it
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/coup
https://www.uky.edu/~clthyn2/powell-thyne-JPR-2011.pdf

[pppolitics]

Olaf Scholz never seems to run out of excuses.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1707049690305302771

[bilaps]

Roses are red, autumn has arrived, coup is a coup and Ukraine is still stuck in Zaporožje.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Roses are red, autumn has arrived, coup is a coup and Ukraine is still stuck in Zaporožje.

I think when the day comes that Ukraine is no longer "stuck in Zaporizhzhia" that will be the day the war ends, since Kherson is completely indefensible without the land bridge from Russia.  Crimea/Luhansk/Donetsk were already separatist/annexations before the war so it would just be a question of if Russia, after what would undoubtedly be a monumental defeat on the battlefield, wants to continue trying to defend them in what would most likely be a losing effort given Ukrainian momentum and severe logistical issues.

It's pretty much impossible for me to imagine a future where Ukraine reaches the Sea of Azov in Zaporizhzhia and then loses the war.

[jaichind]

https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2023/09/27/ukrainian-soldiers-trained-abroad-express-discontent-i-repeatedly-told-them-nato-manuals-didn-t-apply_6140349_4.html

"Ukrainian soldiers trained abroad express discontent: 'I repeatedly told them NATO manuals didn't apply'"

[Hindsight was 2020]

Roses are red, autumn has arrived, coup is a coup and Ukraine is still stuck in Zaporožje.

Like all good vatniks you resort to trolling because the facts don’t back you up

[All Along The Watchtower]

American Revolution is called revolution because it’s historically perceived as a good development. But I can see why a British person would see it as a coup backed by France since it was prejudicial for the United Kingdom.

Was it though

[jaichind]

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/germany-stalling-long-range-cruise-missile-delivery-to-ukraine-66354f53

"Germany Stalling Long-Range Cruise Missile Delivery to Ukraine"

Looks like  Scholz is afraid to send instructors and military personnel to control and maintain the missiles since the Kremlin could see this as a direct confrontation.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1707106020374253906

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1707146277513814246

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/VladaKnowlton/status/1707171066614006027?s=20

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1706720644442771652?s=20

[pppolitics]

Something is happening!!!

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1707225241406026134

[bilaps]

Roses are red, autumn has arrived, coup is a coup and Ukraine is still stuck in Zaporožje.

Like all good vatniks you resort to trolling because the facts don’t back you up

It's really something to sit there with a straight face and say the facts don't back you up. What facts don't back me up? They are stuck.

[bilaps]

Roses are red, autumn has arrived, coup is a coup and Ukraine is still stuck in Zaporožje.

I think when the day comes that Ukraine is no longer "stuck in Zaporizhzhia" that will be the day the war ends, since Kherson is completely indefensible without the land bridge from Russia.  Crimea/Luhansk/Donetsk were already separatist/annexations before the war so it would just be a question of if Russia, after what would undoubtedly be a monumental defeat on the battlefield, wants to continue trying to defend them in what would most likely be a losing effort given Ukrainian momentum and severe logistical issues.

It's pretty much impossible for me to imagine a future where Ukraine reaches the Sea of Azov in Zaporizhzhia and then loses the war.

Problem being chances of that happening dropping exponentialy with each day.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-27/russia-s-breakneck-military-buildup-bolsters-sanctioned-economy

'Russia’s Industry Surges as Putin Seeks to Feed War Machine'

Industries providing goods for the military are expected to increase their output by almost a third in 2023, according to government forecasts seen by Bloomberg News that cover the next three years. The output for products such as computers, electronics and optics — a category that includes among other things parts for aircraft and rocket engines, as well as optical sights — are projected to grow by 34% compared to the previous year. 

This fits into my narrative of the Russian economy being similar to USA economy in the late 1960s.  The Russian war effort from a relative economic point of view is currently around the same as the Vietnam War and going to be Korean War scale next couple of years.   That would lead to an industrial war production surge but will trigger inflationary surge as well.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Roses are red, autumn has arrived, coup is a coup and Ukraine is still stuck in Zaporožje.

Like all good vatniks you resort to trolling because the facts don’t back you up

It's really something to sit there with a straight face and say the facts don't back you up. What facts don't back me up? They are stuck.

That nothing that happened in Euromaiden meets any definition of a coup