Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[pppolitics]

This pathetic Russian bootlicker

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1695344305982804123

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1695578593374384555

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

This pathetic Russian bootlicker

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1695344305982804123

His face expresses his soul so well.

[YPestis25]

For all his talk of 1848 and March 15th, Orban sure loves to bow down to Russian autocrats.

[Alben Barkley]

Please tell me I'm not the first to post this:

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

This is really what the offensive hinges on. The battle has been bogged down in the trenches and minefields for months, and even when the Ukrainians have advanced the Russians have always been able to (more or less) retreat back to new lines. There needs to be a breakthrough, likely on this push, or the offensive won't have accomplished much other than pushing the line back by a few miles. Here's hoping.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1695777109438767133

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1695771117879705661

[Silent Hunter]

Yikes!

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1695187031494717440

Three dead including Andrii "Juice" Pilshchykov

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/emilkastehelmi/status/1695879651158052910
https://twitter.com/emilkastehelmi/status/1695879654572216448
https://twitter.com/emilkastehelmi/status/1695879657906663688
https://twitter.com/emilkastehelmi/status/1695879661014626744
https://twitter.com/emilkastehelmi/status/1695879664290382063
https://twitter.com/emilkastehelmi/status/1695879667750678588
https://twitter.com/emilkastehelmi/status/1695879671131324842
https://twitter.com/emilkastehelmi/status/1695879674524500038

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/emilkastehelmi/status/1695879678332985539
https://twitter.com/emilkastehelmi/status/1695879681927434446
https://twitter.com/emilkastehelmi/status/1695879685232611777
https://twitter.com/emilkastehelmi/status/1695879687770136971
https://twitter.com/emilkastehelmi/status/1695879690857156666
https://twitter.com/emilkastehelmi/status/1695879692912325056
https://twitter.com/emilkastehelmi/status/1695879695026335836
https://twitter.com/emilkastehelmi/status/1695879697106674164

[Virginiá]

US looking likely to supply Ukraine with cluster bomb rockets for HIMARS/M270. These have anywhere from 500 - 644 submunitions and are downright terrifying. The DPICM artillery shells are quite damaging themselves but with ~80 submunitions and a dispersal pattern that at times resembles a doughnut, it's definitely outclassed significantly by M26 cluster rockets.

The only caveat here is that these rockets only have up to a 45 km range (for the extended range versions), are unguided, and Ukraine has significantly less launchers to use. It's likely they'll need additional launchers to fully realize their potential, and in which case, we'll probably also see one or two destroyed at some point if they have to move a lot closer to the front line to fire on Russian positions.

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1695829015662035245

[pppolitics]

Why is this forum so quiet right now?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

US looking likely to supply Ukraine with cluster bomb rockets for HIMARS/M270. These have anywhere from 500 - 644 submunitions and are downright terrifying. The DPICM artillery shells are quite damaging themselves but with ~80 submunitions and a dispersal pattern that at times resembles a doughnut, it's definitely outclassed significantly by M26 cluster rockets.

The only caveat here is that these rockets only have up to a 45 km range (for the extended range versions), are unguided, and Ukraine has significantly less launchers to use. It's likely they'll need additional launchers to fully realize their potential, and in which case, we'll probably also see one or two destroyed at some point if they have to move a lot closer to the front line to fire on Russian positions.

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1695829015662035245

Shashank Joshi is denying that there are plans to send the M26. I wouldn't be hugely surprised if this changed in the next few months, but most of them have a higher dud rate (allegedly) than what's been sent so far.

Ukraine have already been firing (non-cluster) rockets with the same range for many months - I recall that, in and after the Kharkiv offensive, they fired M26-based AT-2 remote mines behind Russian positions via M270 or HIMARS. M26 can be fired by the older, un-upgraded M270A0s which may be more numerous in stocks than newer kinds of M270s.

I would be careful not to overstate the efficacy of these. I can't find much on their production rates, but a 2018 document on the Marine Corps Association website claims they were last produced in 2001, and there has been a program to dismantle them in recent years.

We don't know how many are still extant and functional. It's possible that some or all of the non-functional ones could be reassembled - why else would the GLSDB program, which uses M26 rocket motors, exist? - but this could, in itself, be time-consuming. Shorter-range training rockets are still produced and could, in theory, be converted (or their production line could be converted), but this would probably be even more time-consuming/costly.

They're not nothing, but the US didn't stop producing them just because they were cluster munitions. Per shell, they would probably be much less effective than a longer-range precision weapon like GLMRS.

Edit: if the WaPo told "MAKS" this, they did so privately. There don't appear to be any articles on this matter.

[Virginiá]

I would be careful not to overstate the efficacy of these. I can't find much on their production rates, but a 2018 document on the Marine Corps Association website claims they were last produced in 2001, and there has been a program to dismantle them in recent years.

It seems like the US was destined to move away from cluster munitions anyway, as they have been developing "Alternative Warhead" replacements and phased out DPICM on their own.

I don't mean to suggest they are some wunderwaffe but they are objectively more damaging than DPICM shells in that they have considerably more submunitions in a concentrated area.

Personally, I don't think the low dud rate the US has said it would adhere to is going to hold in the end. It sounds like something they said to justify it initially and eventually they'll break that rule if the artillery shell shortage doesn't improve fast enough. I obviously can't prove that, but the reservations are likely more about PR and politics than any particular dedication to reducing UXO.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Why is this forum so quiet right now?

Weekend opsec mainly

[GeneralMacArthur]

Why is this forum so quiet right now?

It's going poorly for Russia, so our blue avatar friends are waiting for a new status quo to be stabilized before they return to their usual trolling.

[Lykaon]

Why is this forum so quiet right now?

I don’t think our resident vatnik has posted since Prigozhin fell from the stratosphere. Makes you wonder…

[CumbrianLefty]

Why is this forum so quiet right now?

It's going poorly for Russia, so our blue avatar friends are waiting for a new status quo to be stabilized before they return to their usual trolling.

(and yellow)

[Lykaon]

Why is this forum so quiet right now?

It's going poorly for Russia, so our blue avatar friends are waiting for a new status quo to be stabilized before they return to their usual trolling.

(and yellow)

And green (global south guy)
And red (Hollywood)

Vatniks come in all colors but luckily are extremely easy to spot. If anything, this war has made me a believer in the horseshoe theory. Everyone who is normal left wing and right wing or anything between is for Ukraine. The two extremes are for Putinland

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/glasnostgone/status/1696147261988745573?s=12
Someone’s getting thrown out of a window because of this

[oldtimer]

Why is this forum so quiet right now?

Because nothing of substance has happened for months now.

[pppolitics]

Why is this forum so quiet right now?

Because nothing of substance has happened for months now.

Ukraine's counteroffensive is finally picking up speed.

Ships left Ukraine ports in defiance of the collapse of the grain deal.

Ukraine seriously damaged two Russian ships with unmanned sea drones.

Putin killed Prigozhin.

A Russian pilot defected to Ukraine.

Ukraine pilots finally started training on the F-16.

Ukraine made new missiles that can (and did) strike Crimea.

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-ready-long-war-russia-172739595.html

"Ukraine is ready for long war with Russia without losing people – Ukrainian President"

Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine, stated that Ukraine, following the example of Israel, may focus on a long-lasting war with Russia without losing the lives of Ukrainians, and explained the risks of taking the war into the territory of Russia.

Zelensky talking about a war that last a long time that will have to be mostly sustained by Ukraine resources, including its own military-industrial complex

[jaichind]

https://www.bild.de/politik/ausland/politik-ausland/neue-soldaten-benoetigt-ukraine-plant-neue-mobilmachung-85189548.bild.html

"Ukraine plans new mobilization"