Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Hindsight was 2020]

The thing I find bizarre is the in the build up to this campaign that Russian trolls were bragging about the defensive fortifications they had set up and said it was going to be another Battle of Kursk. But the thing at Kursk was the Soviets took advantage of their multiple lines and allowed lines to be penetrated to grind down the Germans but here they’ve thrown everything at the first line and aren’t rotating units for what seems to be the desire to stop Ukraine before getting through the first line. But because they’re doing that they’re taking on high (and by a lot of reports more than Ukraine) causalities and losing lots of artillery so when Ukraine gets through the first line the next several lines will be undermanned to the point of being ineffective

No matter what the actual cause(s) of these gains are, the signs point to Ukraine doing solid on a small-scale, tactical level.

It likely helps that the crown jewel for this campaign (Tokmak) is relatively near where they are

[CumbrianLefty]

https://news.yahoo.com/us-defence-budget-house-representatives-052456896.html

"US defence budget: House of Representatives rejects number of negative amendments for Ukraine"

Biden: It's time for another account error. 
Ukraine: We spent the next 3 account errors already

Wow. Not even cluster munitions was able to get significantly more than 1/3 of the chamber voting Aye.
I wonder how the partisan divide on that one was...

Apart from the cluster bombs vote - and even that was decisive - all were by pretty towering margins.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The thing I find bizarre is the in the build up to this campaign that Russian trolls were bragging about the defensive fortifications they had set up and said it was going to be another Battle of Kursk. But the thing at Kursk was the Soviets took advantage of their multiple lines and allowed lines to be penetrated to grind down the Germans but here they’ve thrown everything at the first line and aren’t rotating units for what seems to be the desire to stop Ukraine before getting through the first line. But because they’re doing that they’re taking on high (and by a lot of reports more than Ukraine) causalities and losing lots of artillery so when Ukraine gets through the first line the next several lines will be undermanned to the point of being ineffective

No matter what the actual cause(s) of these gains are, the signs point to Ukraine doing solid on a small-scale, tactical level.

It likely helps that the crown jewel for this campaign (Tokmak) is relatively near where they are

One wonders how the Russians would respond if Tokmak was (partially or completely) besieged, or even lost.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://news.yahoo.com/us-defence-budget-house-representatives-052456896.html

"US defence budget: House of Representatives rejects number of negative amendments for Ukraine"

Biden: It's time for another account error. 
Ukraine: We spent the next 3 account errors already

Wow. Not even cluster munitions was able to get significantly more than 1/3 of the chamber voting Aye.
I wonder how the partisan divide on that one was...

Apart from the cluster bombs vote - and even that was decisive - all were by pretty towering margins.

Certainly it's not a bad place for Ukraine to be in terms of American institutional support.
And it's very hard to imagine any of this getting successfully filibustered in Senate.

[pppolitics]

https://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-recap-biden-champions-nato-075038216.html

"Ukraine Recap: US Intel Official Says Conflict at ‘Stalemate’"

The conflict between Ukraine and Russia has reached a stalemate, a senior US intelligence official said, offering a downbeat assessment of a counteroffensive that some US and European leaders had hoped would turn the tide in Kyiv’s favor.

This will be a war of attrition and will continue indefinitely

A crumbling Russia can’t continue the war indefinitely.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1680192068881137664?s=12
Muh Global South in shambles 😂

[Storr]

Another Russian general fired (notably these haven't been transfers or demotions as the Russians have done previously in the war):

https://twitter.com/revishvilig/status/1680261738908753921?s=20

[jaichind]

https://civil.ge/archives/552374

"PM Garibashvili: “If Ukraine Defeats Russia, Then What’s the Use for NATO Membership?”

Georgia PM Garibashvili: " .....we heard direct statements that Ukraine cannot become a member of NATO until … it defeats Russia. I have a question, if Ukraine defeats Russia, then what’s the use for NATO membership? "

Garibashvili is catching on to my analogy of NATO as an insurance company: You can get a policy for a fee once you show that you will never use the insurance.

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.com/law-moves-ukrainian-christmas-jan-114800447.html

"New law moves Ukrainian Christmas from Jan 7 to Dec 25, other holidays changed too"

I think this is not a smart move.  It hands Putin more ammo in his narrative: "This is a war for Russian civilization.  If Russia loses it is the end of Russian civilization"

Imagine believing that the survival of "Russian civilization" hinges on Ukrainians not celebrating Christmas in December. Gives the term "War on Christmas" a whole new meaning too.

There was a reason why Stalin choose to make the movie "Alexander Nevsky" in 1938 and its depiction of Battle on the Ice in 1242 as a way to appropriate Russian nationalism in the service of his regime.  1242 was not just a German invasion but it was a Catholic invasion.  Ukraine going to the other side of the 1054 Schim will also bring up memories of the Polish-Catholic invasion of the early 1600s as well as the Teutonic Order invasion of 1242.

ya maybe among the vast population of 1000 year olds i guess

Do not underestimate the power of the memory of Alexander Nevsky.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/dec/29/stalin-name-of-russia

"Medieval warrior overcomes Stalin in poll to name greatest Russian"

In 2008  Alexander Nevsky beat Stalin in a Russian poll of over 5 million respondents as the Greatest Russian.  Stalin is there because of the Great Patriotic War.  For  Alexander Nevsky to beat Stalin over the Battle of the Ice a full 800 year earlier than the Great Patriotic War show the power of the memory of that conflict.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1680286795320139776?s=20

[lfromnj]

With the collective West stuck dealing with a very likely indefinite war in Ukraine but with the more powerful long-term threat being PRC the solution being proposed seems to be a two-front conflct.

Armor and short range missiles like HIMARs are easy enough to give out for this purpose. However longer range missiles and fighter jets are going to much more important in the Far East.

[Woody]

https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/ukraines-demography-second-year-full-fledged-war

As of Jan. 2023: Approx. 31.1 million Ukrainians left in territories controlled by the the Ukrainian government.

When you include land currently occupied by Russia (1991 borders) 37.6 million - Which means six 6.5 million inhabitants live under Russian rule of law. Not counting the Ukrainians who fled or were deported to the Russian mainland.

In comparison, at it's peak right before the end of the USSR, Ukraine had a population of 51-52 million. Ukraine has lost over a quarter of it's population since then and it's most likely going to continue that path as the war continues..

[NOVA Green]

Another Russian general fired (notably these haven't been transfers or demotions as the Russians have done previously in the war):

https://twitter.com/revishvilig/status/1680261738908753921?s=20

Wow!!!

Considering that Russian Paratrooper units are considered to be practically the best fighting forces they have left, despite being decimated early in the war, and that in addition they are fighting to defend the Bakhmut front where Russia lost an estimated 20k KIA to take for symbolic reasons, and are still defending with roughly 40k Russian soldiers, this seems strange.

Maybe the reports of Senior Russian military commanders consuming a bottle of Vodka a day at work are true???

[lfromnj]

Thats a joke. We give 100 billion in a single year.

Long-term funding is what is going to determine whether Russia gives this another go in the future (Aside from NATO membership). Also, 100+ billion is total aid, not military aid. Most of that is budgetary and humanitarian aid. The US has given a lot, but the ammunition and equipment that the given military aid represents is being rapidly depleted on an ongoing basis.

As stated here, the US has given ~41 billion in military funding/equipment so far

https://www.state.gov/u-s-security-cooperation-with-ukraine/

In the end I would argue that only America should give military aid but we should drop all other types of aid beyond a token humanitarian aid. Europe should drop most military aid though . Most American worries with the war relate to corruption while europeans have peaceniks

Oh pound salt. "I believe we should deprive humanitarian Aid of a country that is undergoing a huge humanitarian crisis because it offends muh fiscal conservatism."

Contemptuous.

Its not for spending purposes as I merely just propose a swap. This proposal has serious benefits as well for Ukraine, humanitarian organizations closer to Ukraine will be better fir to serve its needs. America being the only source for military aid also means standardization of military equipment. If you look at opposition to Ukraine funding from America most of the serious opposition comes from the fact that Ukraine is corrupt which is true. Its more likely Ukrainian officials are skimming more off the top from Financial aid than military aid as I highly doubt they are selling weapons in any significant quantity. Meanwhile Europeans who oppose aid are more worried about being too aggressive with Russia. Therefore this means those countries should stop military aid.

[Woody]

Thats a joke. We give 100 billion in a single year.

...An analogy: Say a rich person buys a new car for $50k. Then two years later they gift it to their kid. Did they just give their kid something worth $50k? No, because the car is worth significantly less now two years later and after the use of that time. It probably wouldn't be worth even $20k at that point. Same thing here...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/ukraines-demography-second-year-full-fledged-war

As of Jan. 2023: Approx. 31.1 million Ukrainians left in territories controlled by the the Ukrainian government.

When you include land currently occupied by Russia (1991 borders) 37.6 million - Which means six 6.5 million inhabitants live under Russian rule of law. Not counting the Ukrainians who fled or were deported to the Russian mainland.

In comparison, at it's peak right before the end of the USSR, Ukraine had a population of 51-52 million. Ukraine has lost over a quarter of it's population since then and it's most likely going to continue that path as the war continues..

Would be an exaggeration to say Ukraine demographically is likely on track to be facing a not very different position from France's in 1917 or 1918?

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/andrewperpetua/status/1680270066925940737?s=12
Lol

[jaichind]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ben-wallace-im-resigning-from-politics-next-cabinet-reshuffle-2023-k0x9st2rt

"Ben Wallace: I'm resigning from politics at the next cabinet reshuffle"

UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace will resign from politics

I wonder if Ben Wallace telling Zelensky "we are not Amazon" at the NATO summit was the nail in the coffin.

https://news.sky.com/story/uk-defence-secretary-ben-wallaces-we-are-not-amazon-jibe-at-ukraine-a-real-warning-about-the-risk-of-war-fatigue-12920142

"UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace's 'we are not Amazon' jibe at Ukraine a real warning about the risk of war fatigue"

[Storr]

https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/ukraines-demography-second-year-full-fledged-war

As of Jan. 2023: Approx. 31.1 million Ukrainians left in territories controlled by the the Ukrainian government.

When you include land currently occupied by Russia (1991 borders) 37.6 million - Which means six 6.5 million inhabitants live under Russian rule of law. Not counting the Ukrainians who fled or were deported to the Russian mainland.

In comparison, at it's peak right before the end of the USSR, Ukraine had a population of 51-52 million. Ukraine has lost over a quarter of it's population since then and it's most likely going to continue that path as the war continues..

Would be an exaggeration to say Ukraine demographically is likely on track to be facing a not very different position from France's in 1917 or 1918?

Ukraine demographically seems to be facing a situation similar to Bosnia and Herzegovina in the 90s. A large amount of the population leaves for the EU due to war and a significant number of those that remain in country live under occupation. At least Ukraine doesn't face the same ethnic and religious divisions as Bosnia, which doesn't have a majority ethnic group or religion.

One difference from Bosnia that might lead to more of those that left for the EU returning to Ukraine, is that all fighting age men have been banned from leaving the country (with some exceptions, for example high ranking government officials and athletes) while it's under a state of emergency.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/andrewperpetua/status/1680384162333708288?s=12
As nice a liberating the towns are Ukraine is making good progress at taking the geographical important areas 😗

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/revishvilig/status/1680358080125575168?s=20
Shoigu! Gerasimov! What the f**k are you doing?!

[Upper Canada Tory]

TimTurner's incessant bothsidesism is legitimately sickening.

Agreed. There’s no both sides in this war. You can make the case that there hasn’t been as clear cut good vs. evil war like this since WWII. Russia is irredeemable at this point, its soldiers are thugs and rapists, itss people are sheep, and its leader is a sick ape that desperately needs to be put down

The Russians are barbaric orcs raping, pillaging and murdering Ukrainian civilians like a Mongol horde. Russian barbarism runs deep in the country's veins, since the Mongols invaded Russia.

I support Ukraine and oppose Russia, but is this a serious post? There's no need to demonize Russians to this extent.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/ukraines-demography-second-year-full-fledged-war

As of Jan. 2023: Approx. 31.1 million Ukrainians left in territories controlled by the the Ukrainian government.

When you include land currently occupied by Russia (1991 borders) 37.6 million - Which means six 6.5 million inhabitants live under Russian rule of law. Not counting the Ukrainians who fled or were deported to the Russian mainland.

In comparison, at it's peak right before the end of the USSR, Ukraine had a population of 51-52 million. Ukraine has lost over a quarter of it's population since then and it's most likely going to continue that path as the war continues..

Would be an exaggeration to say Ukraine demographically is likely on track to be facing a not very different position from France's in 1917 or 1918?

Ukraine demographically seems to be facing a situation similar to Bosnia and Herzegovina in the 90s. A large amount of the population leaves for the EU due to war and a significant number of those that remain in country live under occupation. At least Ukraine doesn't face the same ethnic and religious divisions as Bosnia, which doesn't have a majority ethnic group or religion.

One difference from Bosnia that might lead to more of those that left for the EU returning to Ukraine, is that all fighting age men have been banned from leaving the country (with some exceptions, for example high ranking government officials and athletes) while it's under a state of emergency.

Fair points. France 1918 doesn't really seem to fit the profile of the losses Ukraine had had yet anyway, in terms of scope.

[jaichind]

How dare the Russians try to prevent the Ukraine counteroffensive.  They should just sit back and maybe even assist.  Such a shock they decided to get in the way.

[jaichind]

From Financial Times on latest European Commission’s latest Eurobarometer poll.

Dig a little deeper, though, and we come across evidence of less solid support for Ukraine in seven countries: Austria, Bulgaria, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Greece, Hungary and Slovakia. Enthusiasm for Ukraine is most tepid in the areas of financing the purchase and supply of military equipment for Kyiv, and making Ukraine an EU candidate member.
In six of these countries (the exception is the Czech Republic), more than 50 per cent of those questioned were against financing military support for Ukraine.
In all seven, opinion is more or less evenly divided on Ukraine’s EU membership, but in one — again, the Czech Republic — a narrow majority of 46 to 43 per cent is against.

Ukraine's joining the EU part of it is mostly likely due to the issue of Ukraine's agriculture imports into the EU.