Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

https://www.politico.eu/article/kyiv-not-in-nato-russia-war-suicidal-ukraine-dmytro-kuleba

"Kyiv not in NATO after Russia war would be ‘suicidal,’ Ukraine foreign minister says"

[rc18]

https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2023/07/02/64a1084b9cff3300266a99b7-directo.html

"A Ukrainian officer says that French armor is "unsuitable" for the attack"

Well that's a bit 'no sh**t, Sherlock'.

AMX-10 RC is really a tank destroyer, not a tank. In combat it is primarily a mobile defensive vehicle designed to rapidly respond to and outmanouvre an enemy tank assault, not to go on the offensive itself. It can also be used for reconnaissance in low threat environments. It's a bit of a niche concept that isn't used by many militaries, and is likely to be extremely vulnerable in Ukraine.

[pppolitics]

https://au.news.yahoo.com/ukraine-swipe-albo-surplus-011600894.html

"Ukraine’s swipe at Albo’s surplus"

Ukraine’s ambassador to Australia has signalled he’d like to see more military aid funnelled into his war-torn nation, given the federal budget had inadvertently benefited from Russia’s invasion.

It’s not that they really need Australian equipment - the US by itself can suffice Ukraine’s demands - it’s more about the symbolic meaning of forcing a position from these fence-sitting nations like Australia.

Australia is clearly on the Western-leaning side but less committed than USA or Europe. Interesting how the exact demands change depending of the country positioning and situation.

Australia is sending its F-18 to Ukraine, pending US approval, so it's definitely not fence-sitting.

[jaichind]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/07/01/russia-increases-deadly-lancet-drone-use-against-ukraine/

"Russia ramps up use of deadly Lancet suicide drone to blunt Ukraine’s offensive"

It seems these Lancet drones only cost around $35K each which makes it a very cost-effective weapon for Russia to use in scale.

[ProudModerate2]

Yet another likely demonstration of the effectiveness of HIMARS courtesy of "Uncle Sam":

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1675133004614696962?s=20

Wow. That was impressive.
Does anyone know how these missiles find their target? The precision of hitting those artillery pieces was incredible. (It seemed it was done, with just one hit/missile.)

[ProudModerate2]

Zelensky says he's afraid to lose bipartisan support in the US.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he's afraid to lose bipartisan support from the United States, following what he called "dangerous messages coming from some Republicans."

“Mike Pence has visited us, and he supports Ukraine. First of all, as an American, and then as a Republican,” Zelensky said in a news conference with Spanish media in Kyiv on Saturday. “We have bipartisan support. However, there are different messages in their circles regarding support for Ukraine. There are messages coming from some Republicans, sometimes dangerous messages, that there may be less support.”

[Torie]

Zelensky says he's afraid to lose bipartisan support in the US.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he's afraid to lose bipartisan support from the United States, following what he called "dangerous messages coming from some Republicans."

“Mike Pence has visited us, and he supports Ukraine. First of all, as an American, and then as a Republican,” Zelensky said in a news conference with Spanish media in Kyiv on Saturday. “We have bipartisan support. However, there are different messages in their circles regarding support for Ukraine. There are messages coming from some Republicans, sometimes dangerous messages, that there may be less support.”

Yes it is concerning, but any Pub who expresses cut and run and bail on Ukraine sentiments is not likely to prevail in a marginal district, and while Trump is a clear and present danger, the odds he's coming back are still very low I think, so right now the main focus should be on protecting Ukraine from the air. The rest will probably take care of itself.

[Lykaon]

Zelensky says he's afraid to lose bipartisan support in the US.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he's afraid to lose bipartisan support from the United States, following what he called "dangerous messages coming from some Republicans."

“Mike Pence has visited us, and he supports Ukraine. First of all, as an American, and then as a Republican,” Zelensky said in a news conference with Spanish media in Kyiv on Saturday. “We have bipartisan support. However, there are different messages in their circles regarding support for Ukraine. There are messages coming from some Republicans, sometimes dangerous messages, that there may be less support.”

Yes it is concerning, but any Pub who expresses cut and run and bail on Ukraine sentiments is not likely to prevail in a marginal district, and while Trump is a clear and present danger, the odds he's coming back are still very low I think, so right now the main focus should be on protecting Ukraine from the air. The rest will probably take care of itself.

I believe that we have a lot more guys like McCaul, Rogers, Graham, etc. who support Ukraine and actually support sending more than what Biden has/doing it much more quickly. We unfortunately have a very loud minority on our side like Gaetz, Boebert, and those clowns who are tacitly if not openly pro-Russia

[jaichind]

https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/politik-gesellschaft/ukraine-verliert-kriegsgeraet-so-viele-leopard-2-sollen-bisher-zerstoert-worden-sein-li.365243

"Ukraine loses war equipment: So many Leopard 2 are said to have been destroyed so far"

The article points out that Ukraine is asking Germany to send more Leopard 2 due to losses on the battlefield but

According to a study by Spiegel, however, only 130 of the 300 Leopard 2s are operational today, due to decades of underinvestment in the defense sector.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/politik-gesellschaft/ukraine-verliert-kriegsgeraet-so-viele-leopard-2-sollen-bisher-zerstoert-worden-sein-li.365243

"Ukraine loses war equipment: So many Leopard 2 are said to have been destroyed so far"

The article points out that Ukraine is asking Germany to send more Leopard 2 due to losses on the battlefield but

According to a study by Spiegel, however, only 130 of the 300 Leopard 2s are operational today, due to decades of underinvestment in the defense sector.

At what point is the Collective West beginning to scrape the bottom of the barrel?

[Lykaon]

https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/politik-gesellschaft/ukraine-verliert-kriegsgeraet-so-viele-leopard-2-sollen-bisher-zerstoert-worden-sein-li.365243

"Ukraine loses war equipment: So many Leopard 2 are said to have been destroyed so far"

The article points out that Ukraine is asking Germany to send more Leopard 2 due to losses on the battlefield but

According to a study by Spiegel, however, only 130 of the 300 Leopard 2s are operational today, due to decades of underinvestment in the defense sector.

At what point is the Collective West beginning to scrape the bottom of the barrel?

We’re not even close to that. What we need is for the US to stop worrying about “escalation”’and send the big guns. ATACMS, jets, covert forces. Anything that sends the Russian scum back to their country or straight to hell with comrade Stalin. We’re asking Ukraine to fight with one arm behind their back when we should be untying their other hand and giving them Doc Ock style additional ones for good measure. Defeating Russia once and for all should be of vital importance no matter which party we belong to

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/politik-gesellschaft/ukraine-verliert-kriegsgeraet-so-viele-leopard-2-sollen-bisher-zerstoert-worden-sein-li.365243

"Ukraine loses war equipment: So many Leopard 2 are said to have been destroyed so far"

The article points out that Ukraine is asking Germany to send more Leopard 2 due to losses on the battlefield but

According to a study by Spiegel, however, only 130 of the 300 Leopard 2s are operational today, due to decades of underinvestment in the defense sector.

At what point is the Collective West beginning to scrape the bottom of the barrel?

We’re not even close to that. What we need is for the US to stop worrying about “escalation”’and send the big guns. ATACMS, jets, covert forces. Anything that sends the Russian scum back to their country or straight to hell with comrade Stalin. We’re asking Ukraine to fight with one arm behind their back when we should be untying their other hand and giving them Doc Ock style additional ones for good measure. Defeating Russia once and for all should be of vital importance no matter which party we belong to

I meant in terms of equipment that Ukraine can be expected to make good use of. I agree that it's deeply unfortunate, some of the ways UA has been limited, but some kinds of things going to Ukraine is more useful than others.
There are practical concerns that come along with aiding Ukraine's efforts to hold off the Russians. It's something worth doing with care, even if the desire for it to happen is still insufficient among the general population.

[Virginiá]

I don't really want to rag on Poland too much since they have been extremely helpful to Ukraine in both pressing other countries to donate and also donating huge numbers of tanks and other equipment themselves, but they have rather unambiguously been using parts of this war to benefit themselves, even when it hurts Ukraine's war effort (such as in this case).

https://twitter.com/deaidua/status/1675512043212816389

[pppolitics]

https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/politik-gesellschaft/ukraine-verliert-kriegsgeraet-so-viele-leopard-2-sollen-bisher-zerstoert-worden-sein-li.365243

"Ukraine loses war equipment: So many Leopard 2 are said to have been destroyed so far"

The article points out that Ukraine is asking Germany to send more Leopard 2 due to losses on the battlefield but

According to a study by Spiegel, however, only 130 of the 300 Leopard 2s are operational today, due to decades of underinvestment in the defense sector.

It's as if there is a war going on.

[CanadianDemocrat]

Zelensky says he's afraid to lose bipartisan support in the US.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he's afraid to lose bipartisan support from the United States, following what he called "dangerous messages coming from some Republicans."

“Mike Pence has visited us, and he supports Ukraine. First of all, as an American, and then as a Republican,” Zelensky said in a news conference with Spanish media in Kyiv on Saturday. “We have bipartisan support. However, there are different messages in their circles regarding support for Ukraine. There are messages coming from some Republicans, sometimes dangerous messages, that there may be less support.”

Yes it is concerning, but any Pub who expresses cut and run and bail on Ukraine sentiments is not likely to prevail in a marginal district, and while Trump is a clear and present danger, the odds he's coming back are still very low I think, so right now the main focus should be on protecting Ukraine from the air. The rest will probably take care of itself.

I believe that we have a lot more guys like McCaul, Rogers, Graham, etc. who support Ukraine and actually support sending more than what Biden has/doing it much more quickly. We unfortunately have a very loud minority on our side like Gaetz, Boebert, and those clowns who are tacitly if not openly pro-Russia

The Senate is bipartisan as well in it's support for Ukraine. The Republican Senate leaders such as Lindsey Graham and Mitch McConnell want Biden to do more for Ukraine, such as sending F-16s and ATACMS. Anti Russian Reaganism is still alive in the Republican party.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

I don't really want to rag on Poland too much since they have been extremely helpful to Ukraine in both pressing other countries to donate and also donating huge numbers of tanks and other equipment themselves, but they have rather unambiguously been using parts of this war to benefit themselves, even when it hurts Ukraine's war effort (such as in this case).

https://twitter.com/deaidua/status/1675512043212816389

Poles are notorious for jacking up prices. They just can't give up their habits.

[2952-0-0]

Poles are notorious for jacking up prices. They just can't give up their habits.

Maybe so, but this war provoked such a visceral reaction from the entirety of Polish society, that it's surprising the Polish government didn't issue military orders to the company similar to the US Defense Production Act.

[CumbrianLefty]

Zelensky says he's afraid to lose bipartisan support in the US.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he's afraid to lose bipartisan support from the United States, following what he called "dangerous messages coming from some Republicans."

“Mike Pence has visited us, and he supports Ukraine. First of all, as an American, and then as a Republican,” Zelensky said in a news conference with Spanish media in Kyiv on Saturday. “We have bipartisan support. However, there are different messages in their circles regarding support for Ukraine. There are messages coming from some Republicans, sometimes dangerous messages, that there may be less support.”

Yes it is concerning, but any Pub who expresses cut and run and bail on Ukraine sentiments is not likely to prevail in a marginal district, and while Trump is a clear and present danger, the odds he's coming back are still very low I think, so right now the main focus should be on protecting Ukraine from the air. The rest will probably take care of itself.

I believe that we have a lot more guys like McCaul, Rogers, Graham, etc. who support Ukraine and actually support sending more than what Biden has/doing it much more quickly. We unfortunately have a very loud minority on our side like Gaetz, Boebert, and those clowns who are tacitly if not openly pro-Russia

The Senate is bipartisan as well in it's support for Ukraine. The Republican Senate leaders such as Lindsey Graham and Mitch McConnell want Biden to do more for Ukraine, such as sending F-16s and ATACMS. Anti Russian Reaganism is still alive in the Republican party.

Are there any pro-Russia GOP Senators (as opposed to House members, where they definitely exist)

[Logical]

Zelensky says he's afraid to lose bipartisan support in the US.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he's afraid to lose bipartisan support from the United States, following what he called "dangerous messages coming from some Republicans."

“Mike Pence has visited us, and he supports Ukraine. First of all, as an American, and then as a Republican,” Zelensky said in a news conference with Spanish media in Kyiv on Saturday. “We have bipartisan support. However, there are different messages in their circles regarding support for Ukraine. There are messages coming from some Republicans, sometimes dangerous messages, that there may be less support.”

Yes it is concerning, but any Pub who expresses cut and run and bail on Ukraine sentiments is not likely to prevail in a marginal district, and while Trump is a clear and present danger, the odds he's coming back are still very low I think, so right now the main focus should be on protecting Ukraine from the air. The rest will probably take care of itself.

I believe that we have a lot more guys like McCaul, Rogers, Graham, etc. who support Ukraine and actually support sending more than what Biden has/doing it much more quickly. We unfortunately have a very loud minority on our side like Gaetz, Boebert, and those clowns who are tacitly if not openly pro-Russia

The Senate is bipartisan as well in it's support for Ukraine. The Republican Senate leaders such as Lindsey Graham and Mitch McConnell want Biden to do more for Ukraine, such as sending F-16s and ATACMS. Anti Russian Reaganism is still alive in the Republican party.

Are there any pro-Russia GOP Senators (as opposed to House members, where they definitely exist)

Vance and Paul

[jaichind]

Zelensky said in CNN interview that without Crimea " ... it will not be a victory" and that Putin is "losing control over his own people."

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/india-refiners-start-yuan-payments-russian-oil-imports-sources-2023-07-03/

Exclusive: India refiners start yuan payments for Russian oil imports -sources

This seems to be in response to Russian complaints that INR payments are a problem since it is not that liquid

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/india-refiners-start-yuan-payments-russian-oil-imports-sources-2023-07-03/

Exclusive: India refiners start yuan payments for Russian oil imports -sources

This seems to be in response to Russian complaints that INR payments are a problem since it is not that liquid

Will be interesting to see how far de-dollarization actually goes. It is unlikely to go all the way in any scenario, but we might see bits and pieces of it in places like this.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Poles are notorious for jacking up prices. They just can't give up their habits.

Maybe so, but this war provoked such a visceral reaction from the entirety of Polish society, that it's surprising the Polish government didn't issue military orders to the company similar to the US Defense Production Act.

If I had to guess, the administrative minitae of the war effort and the understanding that there isn't a lot riding on this individually is allowing the company to escape anything of this sort.

[GALeftist]

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/india-refiners-start-yuan-payments-russian-oil-imports-sources-2023-07-03/

Exclusive: India refiners start yuan payments for Russian oil imports -sources

This seems to be in response to Russian complaints that INR payments are a problem since it is not that liquid

Compared to the famously liquid yuan?

[jaichind]

Compared to the famously liquid yuan?

Compared to CNY that can be used to buy products from the largest exporter in the world.  In this case, liquidity is not about investment liquidity but trade liquidity where Russia needs to import products and resources to power its war economy.  The range and depth of products one can buy from PRC using CNY is much larger than from India using INR.