Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[LAKISYLVANIA]

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1672618741568290817

[Sir Mohamed]

France 24 says the the Wagner timing was based on the Rostov Russian troops nursing hangovers on an early Saturday morning. Seems logical.

This entire operation has been planned for weeks, if not longer. Someone like Prigozhin isn't doing this on a whim. The biggest question here is whether actually some official Russian soldiers and commanders are flipping on the short or median run. I could imagine he promised them something, perhaps even an end to the full-scale operation which he already said can't be won by Russia. When parts of the Russian army start flipping, Putin's reign is in danger.

That said, I still expect Prigozhin to be dead in a few days. A former KGB agent like Putin isn't playing around here. He needs to set an example.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

If the Ukrainians attack now the Russians on the front might find it easier to withdraw as they try to figure out who to listen to and what's going on at home.

This really makes it difficult for Ukrainians to work with their foreign legion. From what I heard from the Ukrainian military, they still do not trust Prigozhin and intend to continue the counteroffensive as planned, but now the Belarusians and Russians in their army have their own plans.

[Former President tack50]

Never thought I'd say this, but critical support to Sergey Prigozhin on his quest to destabilize Russia

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1672617141005066240?s=20
It’s going down!

[Omega21]

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1672448245618835459

The nukes are useless without Putin's Codes, so no reason to be alarmed.

Prigozhin is a an ultranationalist with nationalsocialist sympathies, who has at times proven himself more effective & ruthless than Moscow. That is why I hope, for the world's and Ukraine's sake, that he won't succeed.

[oldtimer]

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1672603822986784768
Reports of organizations of mass protests and a call for peace, and for putin to step down and the restoration of democracy.

Now THIS is what we like to see, albeit my optimism is severely limited.

It won't work.

This time the population thinks their Leader is too soft, they don't want peace they want victory or at least a respectful tie.

Very different from 1991 or 1917, though in both cases an incompetent and indifferent dictator was a key.

But getting rid of Putin is always step 1 towards a settlement.
Step 2 will be up to the politicians.

[Sir Mohamed]

Never thought I'd say this, but critical support to Sergey Prigozhin on his quest to destabilize Russia

It's good if that helps Ukraine in the short and median run to make additional territorial gains. Ongoing instability in Russia could be dangerous though because of their immense arsenal of nukes. And I have no idea whether Prigozhin would be even less rational than Putler.

[Ricardian1485]

What are the implications of all of this for China?

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1672617141005066240?s=20
It’s going down!

I assume that if the RDK and the Russian partisans do not put themselves on a saucer in front of Prigozhin in the next two days, we will just see how Prigozhin and Kadyrov hug and Kadyrov says that he was able to reason with his братан.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1672621332998103043
No idea what they could possibly offer Wagner at this point (improbable as this seems, Carroll’s done some great journalism in Ukraine for the Economist, so I’m inclined to believe him).

Last ditch stalling tactic, maybe?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What are the implications of all of this for China?

Probably a bit less than for other players, given that whoever will have their hands on Russia's government will have to deal with China no matter what.
For what it's worth though, Kazakhstan is showing signs of independence from Russia or at least from Putin, considering Tokayev refused to allow Putin's plane to go into Kazakh airspace. That's maybe telling as to Chinese influence growing in the country.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

What are the implications of all of this for China?

At the very least, the PRC will get even more Africa for itself. The rest depends on what this big spectacle really is.

[GoTfan]

What are the implications of all of this for China?

Probably a bit less than for other players, given that whoever will have their hands on Russia's government will have to deal with China no matter what.
For what it's worth though, Kazakhstan is showing signs of independence from Russia or at least from Putin, considering Tokayev refused to allow Putin's plane to go into Kazakh airspace. That's maybe telling as to Chinese influence growing in the country.

I can't see Xi risking his neck for Putin, I'll say that much.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What are the implications of all of this for China?

Probably a bit less than for other players, given that whoever will have their hands on Russia's government will have to deal with China no matter what.
For what it's worth though, Kazakhstan is showing signs of independence from Russia or at least from Putin, considering Tokayev refused to allow Putin's plane to go into Kazakh airspace. That's maybe telling as to Chinese influence growing in the country.

I can't see Xi risking his neck for Putin, I'll say that much.

Putin is important for China because he sits on a (metaphorical) golden throne. If he is knocked off, he no longer matters to them.

[oldtimer]

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1672621332998103043
No idea what they could possibly offer Wagner at this point (improbable as this seems, Carroll’s done some great journalism in Ukraine for the Economist, so I’m inclined to believe him).

Last ditch stalling tactic, maybe?

Well Putin has showed his hand at it's not a good one.

The military is not doing much to defend him and the people are indifferent to his fate.

Wagner has shown already that Putin is increadibly weak within Russia and can easily be toppled.

[Blue3]

Maps always help me understand a situation better, finally found a good one for this:

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

For what it's worth though, Kazakhstan is showing signs of independence from Russia or at least from Putin, considering Tokayev refused to allow Putin's plane to go into Kazakh airspace. That's maybe telling as to Chinese influence growing in the country.

It is impossible to imagine Putin trying to hide in Kazakhstan. He has sixteen-story bunkers all over Russia, but even if they were besieged, he would prefer to hide in Beijing. It's the same post-ironic act as the capture of Bomb-Voronezh.

[oldtimer]

What are the implications of all of this for China?

Probably a bit less than for other players, given that whoever will have their hands on Russia's government will have to deal with China no matter what.
For what it's worth though, Kazakhstan is showing signs of independence from Russia or at least from Putin, considering Tokayev refused to allow Putin's plane to go into Kazakh airspace. That's maybe telling as to Chinese influence growing in the country.

I can't see Xi risking his neck for Putin, I'll say that much.

He might add it to his list of "What Russia did that China shouldn't", it's a very long list already if it starts at stalinist 1930's economics.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1672621332998103043
No idea what they could possibly offer Wagner at this point (improbable as this seems, Carroll’s done some great journalism in Ukraine for the Economist, so I’m inclined to believe him).

Last ditch stalling tactic, maybe?

Well Putin has showed his hand at it's not a good one.

The military is not doing much to defend him and the people are indifferent to his fate.

Wagner has shown already that Putin is increadibly weak within Russia and can easily be toppled.

Idk about "easily" toppling Putin, I think that's yet to be determined, but it has become significantly more clear that the invasion of Ukraine has made Putin's domestic situation meaningfully more unstable than it was two years ago.

[Sir Mohamed]

What are the implications of all of this for China?

The biggest takeaway might the narrative of Putin's war - NATO and Ukraine pose a danger to Russia - is exposed as garbage. Prigozhin lately said the war wasn't started because of Western aggression or because Russia is threatened by NATO. After the Russian state propaganda, which the PRC also uses, previously praised Wagner, this might seriously haunt them.

The regime in Beijing would definitely prefer working with Putin as he's a known quantity. That doesn't apply to anyone who might follow him. After all, Xi likes to deal with predictable leaders.

[Ferguson97]

2021: Russia is the 2nd strongest army in the world.
2022: Russia is the 2nd strongest army in Ukraine.
2023: Russia is the 2nd strongest army in Russia.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1672617391681949696/en
Lol

[oldtimer]

For what it's worth though, Kazakhstan is showing signs of independence from Russia or at least from Putin, considering Tokayev refused to allow Putin's plane to go into Kazakh airspace. That's maybe telling as to Chinese influence growing in the country.

It is impossible to imagine Putin trying to hide in Kazakhstan. He has sixteen-story bunkers all over Russia, but even if they were besieged, he would prefer to hide in Beijing. It's the same post-ironic act as the capture of Bomb-Voronezh.

Belarus is the most possible.
Turkey is next.
Some Arab Kingdom or Iran after that.
Maybe even India.

[Torrain]

If Putin's support is this weak, why is his approval rating consistently over 80%? Are the Russians answering these polls afraid to say they disapprove? Or is it "soft" support of some kind?

There’s one major problem with trying to poll the populace in a place like Russia.

If you were a Russian citizen, and a serious-looking man with a clipboard approached you on the street, or called your home, and asked whether you approved of President Putin, would you be more likely to say yes, or no?