Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Torrain]

Dealing with it a bit better than last time, but how concerned should we be about the nukes in Russia? Not exactly sure this is a good thing.

Whenever the Wagner convoy reaches a town/city known to contain nuclear facilities, Telegram chatter jumps, but there's no confirmation they've taken any interest in sights like Borisoglebsk yet - they seem to be focused on reaching Moscow, from what little is available online.

[Ricardian1485]

Not sure if this has been mentioned yet, but Wagner defecting from Russia will have disastrous effects on Russia's global power projection. Not an insignificant chance that Russian influence in much of West Africa simply collapses in the coming weeks.

esp if Wagner withdraws troops from there

It also would create issues in some countries that rely on Wagner for their defence (think of Mali for instance).

Is it possible France might re-intervene in Mali if this happens?

Why is Mali so important to France ?

I never understood that obsession.

Its part of Françafrique, their sphere of influence in Africa, and they want to maintain profitable economic ties with their former colonies.

[Silent Hunter]

Well, the current situation isn't something that happens every day, that's for sure. Ironically all the late night shows are on strike, because they would love this.

[dead0man]

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672590242803597313

One drunk man attacked the soldiers, is being held back by other civilians who support Wagner

that dude at the end that took him away was a head taller and 50lbs heavier than everyone else.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1672606468569284608

On the way to Moscow

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1672583905373724674?s=20

[LAKISYLVANIA]

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1672610013951475712

The Belarussian opposition smells an opportunity.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/russophileLs/status/1672588355366797312?s=20

[LAKISYLVANIA]

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1672603822986784768

Reports of organizations of mass protests and a call for peace, and for putin to step down and the restoration of democracy.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1672606828859891713

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1672605975629422599

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1672609538954911745

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1672580007309332480?s=20

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1672580007309332480?s=20

Comes to show how bad it is for a leader for them to be surrounded by Yes-men.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1672613098706853890

[oldtimer]

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1672580007309332480?s=20

You have to play the part of man of the people in times of emergency.

Zelenski was genuinly popular, and played the popular hero.

Putin is not popular, and is always playing the Tsar in a far away palace, like he never understood why the Tsar was toppled.

[Dereich]

https://twitter.com/AstonishingFMan/status/1672506882164944896?s=20

There are now multiple reports that part of Bakhmut has been retaken by Ukrainian forces.

They should not make a move at all.

Any military move from outside of Russia would only stregthen Putin at the most critical moment when he might fall.

Terrible advice, as usual.
If the Ukrainians advance, it reinforces Prigozhin's platform that the RAF are run by incompetent generals and that he Russia's providential man.

If the events dislocate the front and Ukrainians don't advance, how will that benefit them in a week when the situation in Moscow is stabilised one way or another? It doesn't, unless you truly believe that a war fanatic such as Prigozhin would order a general retreat.

The front hasn’t changed yet though, Ukraine will need to wait a few more days to see where Russia moves resources from to deal with this before making its move

Its worth remembering that the Russian soldiers on the front in Ukraine have agency as well. Its a fair bet that most of them are following every update just like we are. Its also a fair bet that Prigozhin  (as a social media savvy ultranationalist who claims to be the one who REALLY cares about the soldiers) is pretty popular among a lot of the rank and file. There's got to be a lot of uncertainty about who to trust, what orders to follow, and what to do among Russian units in Ukraine. If the Ukrainians attack now the Russians on the front might find it easier to withdraw as they try to figure out who to listen to and what's going on at home.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

A take from a Kazakh friend: he believes that it is all a false flag operation in order to invite Tokayev to send the whole Kazakh army into the country as government support, only to then send them to the Ukrainian front.

Being another Kazakhstani, I also think that this is a special military operation (gosh, for the first time this expression of Putin ceased to be a lie), but not to lure the Kazakhstani army, this would only lead to a real uprising, but to lure the RDK, Freedom of Russia and Russian partisans into the clutches of the FSO (not to be confused with FSB).

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1672603822986784768
Reports of organizations of mass protests and a call for peace, and for putin to step down and the restoration of democracy.

Now THIS is what we like to see, albeit my optimism is severely limited.

[Storr]

The map claims the Wagner convoy has reached Yefremov, Tula Oblast which is 290km from Moscow.

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1672607762272985088?s=20

[Torie]

Meanwhile back in Bakhmut from a WAPO update of an hour ago:

Ukraine’s 35th Marine Brigade and 36th Mechanized Brigade are preparing an assault near Bakhmut, the Ukrainian city where the Wagner Group lost at least 10,000 fighters, according to Russian defense officials. Ukraine is taking advantage of Wagner chief Yevgeniy Prigozhin’s claimed advances into Russia, the Russian Defense Ministry said Friday. The Washington Post could not immediately verify the assertions.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672591543205601280

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

This is the first time during this entire conflict that I have felt some real possibility that this ends with Putin actually losing power. Not to the mercenaries - I don't think they ultimately will have the numbers to pull off a successful coup - but to the army leadership, at least some of whom have to be getting tired of this disastrous enterprise by now.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1672448245618835459

[oldtimer]

The map claims the Wagner convoy has reached Yefremov, Tula Oblast which is 290km from Moscow.

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1672607762272985088?s=20

I have read that they have entered the Moscow Province at Barabanovo, about 75 miles from  the Kremlin.

They are reaching the Oka river, lets see if they cross it.

Then the forest, and after that Moscow.

Domodedovo International Airport is right on the edge of Moscow, if we see that they have captured it then they have entered the city.

[Torie]

France 24 says the the Wagner timing was based on the Rostov Russian troops nursing hangovers on an early Saturday morning. Seems logical.

[Torrain]

Obviously, this is pretty low on the list of priorities today. But I can help thinking - what on earth are defectors like Edward Snowden and Tara Reade thinking, let alone doing, today.