Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/AstonishingFMan/status/1672506882164944896?s=20

There are now multiple reports that part of Bakhmut has been retaken by Ukrainian forces.

They should not make a move at all.

Any military move from outside of Russia would only stregthen Putin at the most critical moment when he might fall.

Terrible advice, as usual.
If the Ukrainians advance, it reinforces Prigozhin's platform that the RAF are run by incompetent generals and that he Russia's providential man.

If the events dislocate the front and Ukrainians don't advance, how will that benefit them in a week when the situation in Moscow is stabilised one way or another? It doesn't, unless you truly believe that a war fanatic such as Prigozhin would order a general retreat.

The front hasn’t changed yet though, Ukraine will need to wait a few more days to see where Russia moves resources from to deal with this before making its move

That sounds wise. It would make sense if they moved only cautiously until they knew what they were getting into.

It’s also important to remember that this happened less than 24hrs ago and we all have high speed internet and have been able to follow all that has happened so quickly while there is a good chance that most of the military in Ukraine hasn’t heard about this yet

[LAKISYLVANIA]

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1672592477440688130

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/AstonishingFMan/status/1672506882164944896?s=20

There are now multiple reports that part of Bakhmut has been retaken by Ukrainian forces.

They should not make a move at all.

Any military move from outside of Russia would only stregthen Putin at the most critical moment when he might fall.

Terrible advice, as usual.
If the Ukrainians advance, it reinforces Prigozhin's platform that the RAF are run by incompetent generals and that he Russia's providential man.

If the events dislocate the front and Ukrainians don't advance, how will that benefit them in a week when the situation in Moscow is stabilised one way or another? It doesn't, unless you truly believe that a war fanatic such as Prigozhin would order a general retreat.

The front hasn’t changed yet though, Ukraine will need to wait a few more days to see where Russia moves resources from to deal with this before making its move

That sounds wise. It would make sense if they moved only cautiously until they knew what they were getting into.

It’s also important to remember that this happened less than 24hrs ago and we all have high speed internet and have been able to follow all that has happened so quickly while there is a good chance that most of the military in Ukraine hasn’t heard about this yet

Good point.

[oldtimer]

https://twitter.com/AstonishingFMan/status/1672506882164944896?s=20

There are now multiple reports that part of Bakhmut has been retaken by Ukrainian forces.

They should not make a move at all.

Any military move from outside of Russia would only stregthen Putin at the most critical moment when he might fall.

Putin being ousted is not necessarily going to end the war, it may lead to hardliners taking over, so Ukraine should obviously seize the opportunity and take back as much territory as possible.

It opens new possibilities for peace.

Putin is a dirty word in western political circles, and afterall think what would have happened if the german army got rid of Hitler.

So you don't give a pretext to the russian people and soldiers to rally around Putin.

The West should not repeat it's errors during the russian revolution of 1917.

[PSOL]

St. Petersburg has since the 1990s been an extension of Moscow, so my statements still stand

[oldtimer]

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1672590500254081024
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1672586075485741057
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1672577452357427200
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1672587576690065414

Wrong moves.

You do not want to push russian nationalists and communists towards rallying around Putin.

[oldtimer]

Yet Putin is still not declaring martial law, so more empty retoric so far:
https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1672588871044042752?cxt=HHwWgMDQne2tnb...

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/maxfras/status/1672581616961572864

[YPestis25]

Not sure if this has been mentioned yet, but Wagner defecting from Russia will have disastrous effects on Russia's global power projection. Not an insignificant chance that Russian influence in much of West Africa simply collapses in the coming weeks.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Not sure if this has been mentioned yet, but Wagner defecting from Russia will have disastrous effects on Russia's global power projection. Not an insignificant chance that Russian influence in much of West Africa simply collapses in the coming weeks.

esp if Wagner withdraws troops from there

It also would create issues in some countries that rely on Wagner for their defence (think of Mali for instance).

[GoTfan]

Dealing with it a bit better than last time, but how concerned should we be about the nukes in Russia? Not exactly sure this is a good thing.

[oldtimer]

Another thing to consider that it's better to aid a smooth government transition in Russia and avoid an actual civil war involving it's nuclear arsenal.

You don't want various rebel groups to gain nukes, you would never know where they will end up.

That was standard State Department policy in the 1990's in the former USSR.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Not sure if this has been mentioned yet, but Wagner defecting from Russia will have disastrous effects on Russia's global power projection. Not an insignificant chance that Russian influence in much of West Africa simply collapses in the coming weeks.

esp if Wagner withdraws troops from there

It also would create issues in some countries that rely on Wagner for their defence (think of Mali for instance).

Imagine what African leaders who have gone to both Russia and Ukraine and have had done business with Wagner feel about all of this. Just put yourself in their heads for a moment...

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Not sure if this has been mentioned yet, but Wagner defecting from Russia will have disastrous effects on Russia's global power projection. Not an insignificant chance that Russian influence in much of West Africa simply collapses in the coming weeks.

esp if Wagner withdraws troops from there

It also would create issues in some countries that rely on Wagner for their defence (think of Mali for instance).

Imagine what African leaders who have gone to both Russia and Ukraine and have had done business with Wagner feel about all of this. Just put yourself in their heads for a moment...

Thats true. For them this is not a good development.

Might allow radical islamist extremist groups to advance in Sahel region and Syria also again.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

https://twitter.com/GoldingBF/status/1672591633542524928

Some support for Wagner in Rostov.

[oldtimer]

Dealing with it a bit better than last time, but how concerned should we be about the nukes in Russia? Not exactly sure this is a good thing.

I was just thinking about it.

Hence I reverted to the standard State Department policy during the 1990's.

You don't want civil war in a nuclear state, you can never be sure who gains access to the nukes.

Another reason for the West to hold it's horses militarily to encourage a smooth quick political transition.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Not sure if this has been mentioned yet, but Wagner defecting from Russia will have disastrous effects on Russia's global power projection. Not an insignificant chance that Russian influence in much of West Africa simply collapses in the coming weeks.

esp if Wagner withdraws troops from there

It also would create issues in some countries that rely on Wagner for their defence (think of Mali for instance).

Imagine what African leaders who have gone to both Russia and Ukraine and have had done business with Wagner feel about all of this. Just put yourself in their heads for a moment...

Thats true. For them this is not a good development.

Might allow radical islamist extremist groups to advance in Sahel region and Syria also again.

Yeah, that would be a nightmare.
The biggest beneficiary from a Wagner destroyed scenario would probably be France, considering Wagner has taken over some of the role they have traditionally monopolized.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

https://twitter.com/WarFrontline/status/1672585484768256001

This evening we will see a battle for Moscow.

[Ricardian1485]

Not sure if this has been mentioned yet, but Wagner defecting from Russia will have disastrous effects on Russia's global power projection. Not an insignificant chance that Russian influence in much of West Africa simply collapses in the coming weeks.

esp if Wagner withdraws troops from there

It also would create issues in some countries that rely on Wagner for their defence (think of Mali for instance).

Is it possible France might re-intervene in Mali if this happens?

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Not sure if this has been mentioned yet, but Wagner defecting from Russia will have disastrous effects on Russia's global power projection. Not an insignificant chance that Russian influence in much of West Africa simply collapses in the coming weeks.

esp if Wagner withdraws troops from there

It also would create issues in some countries that rely on Wagner for their defence (think of Mali for instance).

Is it possible France might re-intervene in Mali if this happens?

No idea.

Future will tell

[PSOL]

The future is the most bright in a long time

[oldtimer]

https://twitter.com/WarFrontline/status/1672585484768256001
This evening we will see a battle for Moscow.

I know.

The Oka river and the forest region would be the last main geographical obstacle.

The key is that so far the population and the soldiers are not supporting Putin, thus allowing a swift advance for Wagner.

Wagner are seen as actual Liberators by the locals.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672590242803597313

One drunk man attacked the soldiers, is being held back by other civilians who support Wagner

[oldtimer]

Not sure if this has been mentioned yet, but Wagner defecting from Russia will have disastrous effects on Russia's global power projection. Not an insignificant chance that Russian influence in much of West Africa simply collapses in the coming weeks.

esp if Wagner withdraws troops from there

It also would create issues in some countries that rely on Wagner for their defence (think of Mali for instance).

Is it possible France might re-intervene in Mali if this happens?

Why is Mali so important to France ?

I never understood that obsession.

[2952-0-0]

The grim irony here is that Muscovy used the Oka River as the last natural barrier to protect itself from the maurauding hordes.