Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1605040980763111424?cxt=HHwWgMCjxZSRoM...

[Torie]

Another Putin cancer rumor reference to add to the pile.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11554675/Mystery-Putins-underfire-defence-minister-Sergei-Shoigu-seen-limping-palace-hall.html

"A security official with Putin appeared to be carrying a body armour briefcase.  Reports say that the president is constantly accompanied by cancer doctors when he travels."

[Virginiá]

Lawmakers unveil $1.7T bill to avoid shutdown, boost Ukraine

https://apnews.com/article/ap-top-news-3e0fef206f524f6b1b67f7c36178a688

The spending package includes about $45 billion in emergency assistance to Ukraine as it battles Russia’s invasion, according to Sen. Patrick Leahy, the Democratic chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee. It would be the biggest American infusion of assistance yet to Ukraine, above even President Joe Biden’s $37 billion emergency request, and ensure that funding flows to the war effort for months to come.

It seemed obvious that Congress would build on the base number provided by the Biden administration, but still, as I was posting earlier in this thread, even 45 billion doesn't come close to the level of aid given in 2022. This is actually only marginally more than the first large package earlier in the year, with there being other supplementals (and the original emergency aid) along the way.

This would indicate that either the previous article(s) indicating Biden not wishing to increase arms to Ukraine (ostensibly due to limits imposed by US policy on minimum stocks for preparedness reasons) have some truth to them, or that Biden believes they will be able to secure more aid to Ukraine in 2023 as needed, or possibly both.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/status/1604794960800354305?s=20&t=dBKKSiU7...

https://twitter.com/BBCSteveR/status/1604440695485366272?s=20&t=U4tX50sd1IlH...

Perhaps because Putin just wanted to make an impression he still travels outside Russia? As far as I know, he pretty much didn't leave since the invasion started nearly a year ago.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1605214572494950402
https://twitter.com/worldnews24u/status/1605212451477524480
https://twitter.com/MaimunkaNews/status/1604916861853847552

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1605214371768049666

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/HumaneRage/status/1605017886523023360

[Storr]

A reminder just how huge Russia is: Chita, where this report was made, is 4,700 kilometers from Moscow. Manila is closer at 4,200km away!

https://twitter.com/BBCSteveR/status/1605216460254507010?s=20&t=FWeCP6rl2Nvu...

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1605237743885459456?s=20&t=dBKKSiU7...

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1605160868261597184?s=20&t=dBKKSi...

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1605254025842429952?s=20&t=dBKKSiU7...

[Storr]

Neat:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1605270295350222873?s=20&t=9B1xc4...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Neat:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1605270295350222873?s=20&t=9B1xc4...

Thank you Ukraine!

[The Mikado]

Neat:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1605270295350222873?s=20&t=9B1xc4...

That's interesting. I know the Romans controlled Crimea but didn't know they had outpostings on the mainland. (Crimea isn't an island but you know what I mean) Trading hubs to deal with the Scythians, I guess?

[Epaminondas]

A reminder just how huge Russia is: Chita, where this report was made, is 4,700 kilometers from Moscow. Manila is closer at 4,200km away!

I often wonder what sort of allegeance the citizens of Eastern Siberia or Kamtchatka can feel for the Kremlin over 4000 miles away. I've been told by Russians that the same shows are broadcast a few hours later.

[2952-0-0]

A reminder just how huge Russia is: Chita, where this report was made, is 4,700 kilometers from Moscow. Manila is closer at 4,200km away!

I often wonder what sort of allegeance the citizens of Eastern Siberia or Kamtchatka can feel for the Kremlin over 4000 miles away. I've been told by Russians that the same shows are broadcast a few hours later.

Honolulu is even further away from Washington, than Chita is from Moscow. Even more incredibly, Honolulu is closer to Auckland and Seoul, than to its national capital. At least, the other continent-sized nations have a high level of federalism (*cough* other than China *cough*, but even there Beijing doesn't usually micromanage the day-to-day jobs of local officials), making the capital seem much less like a District One. That's not something the Russian political elite can tolerate.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1605329479383289856?s=20&t=tFoEiSI-OUHpyO...

[AndyHogan14]

It seems like Zelenskyy may be heading to DC for a visit tomorrow. I think this would be his first trip outside of the country since the war began.

[emailking]

Biden and Zelensky planning to meet in Washington for Ukrainian president’s first foreign trip since war began

President Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky are planning to meet at the White House on Wednesday, according to two sources familiar with the planning, in a Washington visit that is tentatively scheduled to include an address to a joint session of Congress.

Zelensky is already on his way to Washington, two separate sources said, for a visit that marks his first trip outside of Ukraine since the Russian invasion began in February of this year.

The visit to the White House, which hasn’t been finalized and has remained tightly held due to security concerns, will include a meeting with Biden and top administration officials and is planned to coincide with the administration’s intent to send the country a new defense assistance package. Biden will announce an additional $1.8 billion in security assistance to Ukraine during the expected visit, a significant boost in aid headlined by the Patriot missile systems within the package, a US official told CNN.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/20/politics/volodymyr-zelensky-washington-dc-visit/index.html

[Frodo]

It seems like Zelenskyy may be heading to DC for a visit tomorrow. I think this would be his first trip outside of the country since the war began.

I wonder if he will receive the same rapturous welcome from congressional Republicans that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did during the Obama years.

[NOVA Green]

Biden and Zelensky planning to meet in Washington for Ukrainian president’s first foreign trip since war began

President Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky are planning to meet at the White House on Wednesday, according to two sources familiar with the planning, in a Washington visit that is tentatively scheduled to include an address to a joint session of Congress.

Zelensky is already on his way to Washington, two separate sources said, for a visit that marks his first trip outside of Ukraine since the Russian invasion began in February of this year.

The visit to the White House, which hasn’t been finalized and has remained tightly held due to security concerns, will include a meeting with Biden and top administration officials and is planned to coincide with the administration’s intent to send the country a new defense assistance package. Biden will announce an additional $1.8 billion in security assistance to Ukraine during the expected visit, a significant boost in aid headlined by the Patriot missile systems within the package, a US official told CNN.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/20/politics/volodymyr-zelensky-washington-dc-visit/index.html

Another story about Zelensky's upcoming visit, this from The Washington Post:

Without disclosing Zelensky’s visit, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) sent a letter to her colleagues Tuesday, asking lawmakers to be “physically present” for a “very special focus on Democracy” on Wednesday night. The letter set off a scramble among lawmakers who had already left Washington.

House members and aides were shocked to hear that Zelensky might visit the Capitol on Wednesday, a day when the Senate is hoping to get out of town after passing a year-long government funding bill.

Dozens of members of the Congressional Ukraine Caucus were also left in the dark about the plans, even though their group is always aware of discussions between the United States and Zelensky’s administration, according to several who spoke on the condition of anonymity to outline private deliberations.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/12/20/zelensky-congress-washington/

[NOVA Green]

Phil weighs in on Russian Tank and Heavy Eqpt losses...

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1605231307847614465?s=20&t=5wMQCt...

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1605231310108119040?s=20&t=5wMQCt...

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1605231313711235075?s=20&t=5wMQCt...

[NOVA Green]

Phil is now "Double Breasting", to use an old UMWA Coal Mining term and shifting certain items elsewhere to a Substack in case Twitter collapses...

This is a totally free website...

His initial section focuses on a hypothetical Russian assault from Belarus, but perhaps the next section I found a little bit more interesting.

It involves Phil's critiques of certain types of coverage in the American Media since the start of Ukraine War 2.0, in particular how the New York Times has consistently exaggerated Russian military prowess, and even calls out a similar style of coverage even in parts of their massive interactive story posted a couple days ago, which was discussed on this very thread.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/12/16/world/europe/russia-putin-war-failures-ukraine.html

Here are a few... with various Phil real time Tweets in the middle...

If it sounds disjointed it is, simply because there are elements where an expert on war is critiquing US top-shelf journalism for having still consistently misrepresented certain themes involving the Russian Invasion of Ukraine 2.0, and the NYT having failed to learn from their prior mistakes even in their 12/16/22 major investigative story.

Now that tweet thread from May was done up in response to a New York Times editorial arguing (completely inaccurately as its been shown) that US public opinion would soon lose interest in the war. Now, Im a online subscriber to the Times, and I read the paper daily. However their war reporting, while interesting, regularly takes certain ‘lines’ that I think are not reflective of the reality of the war and how it should be understood.

In May after the Russians (temporarily) seized Kherson, I put together a tweet thread that the Times reporting did not understand what it was looking at.

Now that was the second thread I put together on the subject. On March 20, less than a month after the invasion when people like Michael Kofman were still talking like the Russian Army was super-powerful and searching around for Russian victories, I put together this thread on the subject.

Anyway, I bring this all up to show that the Times has, I would argue, still never come to grips with the reality of Russian military power. They had spent so long giving great amplification to voices like Kofman’s that argued Russia was a great power with one of the most impressive militaries in the world, that they still seem look back at the start of the war in that way.

These kind of statements show how the flawed pre-Feb 24 analysis still infects much of the public discussion of the Russian military (in a way that remains problematic to the Ukrainians). The Russian military never could have steamrollered the Ukrainians. It wasnt by choice that they failed, it was because 1) the Ukrainians were much better prepared than many still seem to understand and 2) The Russian military was a deeply flawed institution that could not execute its plans.

Its telling that the Times piece, to try and show how strong the Russian Army should have been, dwells on the supposed excellence on its weapons.

https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-7

[NOVA Green]

S.I. Sutton

https://twitter.com/navalnewscom/status/1605138579310747648

Link to the NavalNews website.

Few would have predicted that, 9 months after the invasion, the once-mighty Russian Black Sea Fleet is tied up in port. But that is exactly what has happened. This is a result of a series of Ukrainian naval victories and increasing capabilities. Not least the sinking of the cruiser Moskva, the retaking of Snake Island and the arrival of Harpoon missiles. But of all the developments, it is a small local innovation which will be remembered as a turning point in naval history.

On October 29 2022 seven small ‘maritime drones’, called USVs (uncrewed surface vessels) in navy parlance, attacked the Russian Navy at Sevastopol. Barely the size of a canoe, they raced across the waves, skimming towards their intended targets. A frigate and minesweeper were hit.

The damage was less than may have been hoped, the warheads barely scratching their victims. But their impact went far beyond the sound of their explosions. It sent the Russian Navy into protection mode, essentially locking them in port.

The maritime drones penetrated the protected harbor. This must have had a dramatic effect on the Russian Navy’s morale and sense of security. New defenses were quickly added, new procedures imposed and there was much less activity. Russia’s most powerful warships in the war are now mostly tied up in port.

The attack on Sevastopol was less spectacular than the sinking of the landing ship Saratov, which was blown to smithereens in Berdyansk on March 24. And much less so than the sinking of the Slava class cruiser Moskva on April 13-14. It may have less individual impact on the outcome of the war than the Moskva, but from a naval perspective it is likely to be the attack which is remembered for its significance. For many it marks the start of a new age in naval warfare.

Defense analysts have been predicting swarm attacks for years. And Western navies have been arming and training to better defend against close-in surface threats. We can speculate that had the same drones been attacking the U.S. Navy, or Royal Navy, they would have faired much worse. But that doesn’t make them easy targets, or a threat which can be dismissed. Western navies have invested so much into this threats precisely because it is dangerous to expensive warships. But until now it was largely theoretical.

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/11/why-ukraines-remarkable-attack-on-sevastopol-will-go-down-in-history/

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1605298157981782036?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctw...

[Woody]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/target-russia%E2%80%99s-capability-not-its-intent

US policy should recognize that the Kremlin’s intent regarding Ukraine is maximalist, inflexible, and will not change in the foreseeable future. The West should stop expending resources trying to change a reality it does not control and focus on what it can shape plenty: denying Russia’s ability to wage a war against Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s intent toward Ukraine has not changed and likely never will. Putin’s intent will most likely outlast him—by design. Russia will use any territory it keeps in Ukraine to stage future attacks.

Putin is preparing Russia for a long war. He was explicit on December 7 that the “special operation” will be “lengthy.”[3] He is likely setting conditions for additional mobilization.[4] He is orienting the Russian defense industrial base to support a prolonged war effort; his success in that effort may be limited, but his intent has been clear.[5] Russian authorities plan to prepare children for military service.[6]

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/ReportWar1/status/1605530633765208064